Broncos @ Patriots - View from the other side

I liked the Sports Guru's title he used at Pats Pulpit, I decided to steal it.

Unlike the Patriots "stealing" the Broncos tandem running back attack. It's a pleasant coincidence, and it's a concept that's been done to death for years. And I don't think Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick said, "Hey, let's do what Denver's doing!"

Regardless, who is stealing from whom is irrelevant. So is the "grudge match" mentality, the history between the two teams, and all that other stuff the media loves to use in headlines.

What is relevant is the way both of these teams have failed to live up to expectations early in the season. What is relevant is whether either team puts it together tonight.

I see it coming down to ball control. The team that best establishes the run, takes advantage of field position and time of possession, and converts third downs earns the W.

Sounds pretty obvious, doesn't it? Might as well add in that the team that commits the fewest turnovers and penalties has the advantage, too, right?

Well, it turns out that it really is that simple. These teams are pretty evenly matched as they have been playing. When they're playing up to their potential, New England has the advantage. The Patriots biggest issue has been the development of the passing game with so many new targets. Tackling in the defensive secondary was an issue last week, but those things don't often remain issues on Bill Belichick teams.

Denver has had several big issues: third down conversions, red-zone offense, and putting points on the board from anywhere. Unless the Patriots secondary implodes again (let's face it, it they got burned on only two plays), Denver should have a hard time keeping pace on the scoreboard.

On the other hand, Denver has built an impenetrable defensive wall inside the 20. Opponents are 0-for-7 in the red zone this season. The Patriots are 5-of-8 offensively. Great matchup there.

It comes down to who best establishes that ground game, which implies that it's the team that best stops the run, and which defense has the deepest reserves of stamina.

Prediction: Patriots, 20-17.

Thanks for the post, Sports Guru, and thanks for inviting me to return the favor. For more on the Patriots, check out Pats Pulpit.