How The Broncos Were Built -- Roster Degradation Key To Struggles
by John Bena on Nov 2, 2007 7:11 AM MDT
in Strictly My Opinion
9 comments
This topic has been bantered about for a few weeks now, and I thought this week, with a game against the Detroit Lions as the backdrop, would be a perfect time. It may not seem like any big deal, but trust me, there's a good reason. More on that later...
The key to success for any NFL team is stability and continuity, both in the front office and in the locker room. For years the Broncos have enjoyed both and success, for the most part has followed. That all changed, beginning in 2006, and the struggles that have followed, while disappointing, are not by any means unexpected. Let's look at the roster to see what I mean.
We'll compare the Broncos roster to a couple of other teams that have synonymous with success. The Patriots, Colts and Steelers. There's an old saying that you can't really judge a draft for 3-4 years. That's true, and it is the success of drafts past that determine future success. Right now, in 2007, we should be reaping the draft rewards of 2002, 2003, 2004. Even 2000 and 2001 to an extent should be providing depth. What you'll see is the complete failure, for the most part, of those draft classes.
Let's take a look at how the present day Broncos were built, focusing strictly on roster additions, through the draft and free agency, from 2000 - 2004 --
The left column are players drafted. The middle column are players acquired via trade, and the right column are free agents signed. Of all the draft picks the Broncos made during the 5-year span from 2000-2004, only 3 remain. Most discouraging are the years the Broncos have nothing to show for - 2000, 2002 and 2003. Ian Gold was drafted by the Broncos in 2000, but he left and came back through FA, so he appears the year he returned(2005). Three complete draft classes, poof into thin air. Why are the Broncos struggling?? There's your answer.
Let's look a bit deeper at those draft classes, and let me warn you, if you recently ate something you may want to wait --
Some of the names on that list make me shudder....Herb Haygood? Adrian Madise? Triandos Luke? Something called a Toviessi? I know, Toviessi was a monster, derailed by injury, which happens to every team at some point. The problem for the Broncos, most of these guys were derailed by a lack of talent, and the failures of drafts past are having a definitive effect on the present.
The tally for the Broncos, then? From 2000-2004, the Broncos drafted 44 players. 3 remain, 1 returned after leaving(Ian Gold), and trades involving draft picks netted 2 more(Champ Bailey and Dre Bly). That's as deep as I'll go. 44 players drafted and the Broncos have 6 players to show for it(13%).
Ok, so what about the other teams I mentioned. Let's start with the defending Champs. The Indianapolis Colts, expectedly, have done alot better --
Over the same period, the Colts have 9 of those picks remaining, and even more than the actual number are the names on the list -- Reggie Wayne, Ryan Diem, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, Bob Sanders, Jake Scott -- all starters, and Jim Sorgi is Peyton Manning's backup. All nine guys are making huge contributions. So the number of players - 9-3 - is a big difference, the actual value of those players is alot greater. In total, the Colts draft 39 players, 9 remain(23%).
How about the Patriots?? Let's take a look --
The Pats have actually done a slightly better job than the Colts in retention - 10 players - and the names are just as impressive. Brady, Seymour, Matt Light, Asante Samuel, Green, Warren, Wilfork. All those guys are making huge contributions. In all, the Pats drafted 44 players, 10 remain(22.7%), slightly worse in percentage than the Colts, tough that is made up for by the success the Pats have had in the Free Agenty market, guys like Vrabel and Harrison.
Still not enough for ya? Ok, how about the Steelers --
They actually do the best job - 36 players selected, 11 retained(30.5%), which is crucial for Pittsburgh's success because of the market they play in. Again, a look at the names and it is easy to see why the Steelers have been so successful the past few seasons - Marvel Smith, Clark Haggans, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Max Starks -- all making huge impacts.
Here's the final breakdown -
Broncos 6/44(13%)
Colts 9/39(23%)
Patriots 10/44(22.7%)
Steelers 11/36(30.5%)
Even with me giving the Broncos a break by including guys acquired via trade we lag way behind the upper echelon teams in the AFC. That, my friends, is why the Broncos are struggling with inconsistency. That is why we are struggling on special teams. That is why we are 3-4, perhaps staring a losing season, only the second of the Shanahan Era, right in the face.
Why was now the perfect time to talk about this, before a game with the Detroit Lions? The Lions are the perfect example of what has happened to the Broncos in the draft. The Lions actually have more Broncos draft picks from 2001-2004 on thier roster than the Broncos do -- The Broncos have 3(Ben Hamilton, D.J Williams and Jeff Shoate). The Lions have 4(Kenoy Kennedy, Nick Harris, Tatum Bell and George Foster). Before you disregard any of these guys, just remember which team is 5-2, in first place, and which is 3-4.
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Agree
You are exactly right here. If there is any ray of hope, it's that the past 2 or 3 drafts have been much better. Guys like Cutler, Sheffler, Marshall, Foxworth, Thomas, Moss, Crowder to name the most obvious are providing not only depth, but starters and even stars. If they can string together another class this year to match the last 2, they should be in pretty decent shape for the future.
For those who know more about draft strategy, have the Broncos changed theirs? In the years Guru shows above, they were bringing in 8-10 draftees every year. Now, they've seemed to show a willingness to sacrifice quantity of picks for quality. It seems to be working. This year, they have 8 picks, does that mean 8 draftees? If they follow suit from the past few years, it would seem likely they'll try to trade up and grab 4 or 5 quality players. Opinions on that?
Offseason '08 Priority: Break the bank to land UFA Michael Turner!!!
by MN Bronco on Nov 2, 2007 7:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts...
I think it becomes a matter of opportunity, depending on where the team is picking and who they are targeting. If there is a stud LB or S in the first round that they need to make a move to get I think they will. If not, I'd sit, and really hit a home run bringing 8 picks with the hope that 5 or 6 actually make some kind of impact.
The salary cap also has alot to do with that. The core of this team is young, so let's keep adding young, talented athletes who can run around and make plays, instead of the aging, over-priced vets. I hope they keep all their picks this year....
by John Bena on Nov 2, 2007 8:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That sounds good in theory
However, we know that the Front Office's mentality is that we are only a player or two for a Championship. Maybe this year the mentality will be changed. We do have a good core of young players, and we need to let some of the older vets go. A franchise can only afford to keep a handfull of their best vets over time. A free agent may help with one or two pieces of the puzzle, but not the majority that Denver has become acustomed too.
I don't blame the Front Office for taking this stance, as Free Agency is what really put Denver over the top to win our two championships. Remember, Free Agency was in its infancy when we made our runs and teams were still working the ins and outs.
You make a good point with Pitt, NE and Indy, and their percentage of draft picks that they have kept.
by dpurvis on Nov 2, 2007 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a "flip" was necessary...
I define a "flip" in the NFL as follows: A team that had a few bad drafts then decides to "flip", where they begin to remove the continuity(by design or by accident) of the team for a couple of seasons in order to completely revamp the organization. An entirely new team, filled with young talent and fewer veterans.
This is the "transition" we are in right now and it will pay huge dividends soon, especially if we have another successful draft.
As many of you might recall, the Broncos went through several flips in the past 20 years. The last of which was forced on us when we lost Elway and TD in the same season. That flip wasn't a success because it didn't bring Titles to Denver. The last one before that occured around 1994-95. The team of 1994 had quite a different face by 1996.
I may get angry at our current situation and talking about being unsuccessful does strike a major nerve in my mental being, BUT no matter how frustrated or angry I will get at our current situation, I KNOW we are headed in the right direction and we will be the talk of the league before you know it.
It is definately 1995 all over again. Win one, lose one, win one, lose one...disgusting. But then again...where were the Broncos two years after that atrocious 8-8 season back in '95? ;)
Here is an exerpt from http://www.sportsecyclopedia.com/nfl/denver/broncos.html
<1994: The Broncos stumbled out of the gate losing their first 4 games as the Broncos defense yielded 134 points. After ending their losing streak with a 16-9 win over the Seahawks in Seattle John Elway and Kansas City Chiefs QB Joe Montana met in an unforgettable Monday Night Duel. Elway appeared to have pulled off his 4th Quarter magic again, but the Broncos defense faltered and the Broncos fell to 1-4. The Broncos would win 6 of their next 7 to get back into the playoff picture, but 3 straight losses would end their season at 7-9. Following the season Coach Wade Phillips would be fired, and Mike Shanahan, whose firing was protested by Elway, would be hired back to replace him.
- Despite establishing 7 franchise record on offense the Broncos defense struggles allowing 345 points in an 8-8 season, where the Broncos seemed to alternate wins and losses all season. One of the most pleasant surprises of the seasons was the running of rookie Terrell Davis who rushed for 1,117 yards after being selected in the later rounds of the draft.
- The Broncos get out of the blocks fast winning their first 3 on the way to a 12-1 start. With Home Field, and the AFC West already sewn up the Broncos go into cruise control in their last 3 games losing twice to finish with a 13-3 record. However, a problem with cruise control is that it's hard to get it going again and the Broncos would find that out in a Divisional Playoff match up with 2nd year Jacksonville Jaguars. The Broncos would jump out quickly grabbing a 12-0 lead in the 1st Quarter, but would give it up quickly as the Jags scored 23 unanswered points. Midway through the 4th it looked as if John Elway was going to weave his magic again scoring a TD, to get the Broncos with in a FG after Terrell Davis notched the 2-point conversion. However it was not meant to be as the Jaguars answered the score, and took a 30-20 lead. The Broncos would get back to with a FG, but the game would be sealed when the Broncos could not recover an on-side-kick.
- Wearing new modern style uniforms with a sleek horse's head on a dark blue helmet, and dark blue uniforms the Broncos get off to an impressive 9-1 start. The Broncos would endure a stunning fashion in Kansas City, when Pete Stoyonavich nailed a long FG with no time left to give the Chiefs a 24-22 win. After winning their next 2 the Broncos lost 2 key games on the road to division Champions, which cost them the AFC West title. The Broncos would go on to win their final game of the season to finish with a solid 12-4 record. In the playoffs as a Wild Card the Broncos would start the playoffs by getting revenge against the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a 42-17 route. The following week the Broncos returned to Kamas City, and found themselves in a defensive struggle trailing 10-7 entering the 4th Quarter. The Broncos would take the lead early in the 4th on a Terrell Davis TD, and let their defense do the rest stopping the Chiefs cold, including knocking down desperation pass on the game's final play. From there it was on the Pittsburgh where the hoped to avenge a late season loss to the Steelers with AFC Championship on the line. Led by 17 points in the 2nd Quarter the Broncos would go to halftime holding a 24-14 lead. From there the Broncos defense would take over shutting down the Steelers, until Kordell Stewart hit Charles Johnson on a 14-yard TD pass, with 2:46 left. However, the Broncos would get the ball back and would run out the clock and would earn a trip to their 5th Super Bowl.
As you can see. Striking similarities to this season to 1995. So much so that I have to keep pointing it out. Last I checked we are currently gaining more yards on the ground than Elway and TD did back in the day. So much to be EXCITED about in the next few years...I just wish this season would get over with already. lol
by Tim Lynch on Nov 2, 2007 10:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft Strategy
When you look at how this team drafts, it is spotty. They either don't have the personnel or willingness to really go out and scout a large group of people. The most successful drafts have been those where it is pretty obvious what the Front Office does. Get crushed by the Colts passing attack in the playoffs?
Go draft 4 DB's. Two of those worked out great. The loss of one of those in tragedy really reshapes the Broncos future in that position.
Need a good Dline? Go draft 3 or 4 Dlinemen. It looks like all of those guys will contribute, at least for a few good years.
This year? They need LB's and SAFETYS. Foxworth is a corner, not a run stopper.
Shanny is good when he focuses on one (or 2) positions and just gets those players he KNOWS. When he spreads out his focus, the results have been disastrous.
Visit the #1 Blog for CU Football, www.buffs.tv, for good times and the occasional tidbit of news or analysis. Shoulder to Shoulder Baby!
by Fallen on Nov 2, 2007 10:35 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know.
The problem with that approach might be that if you draft 4 guys at a position one of them is pretty sure to worl out. BUT, now you've just taken care of only one position.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 2, 2007 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow Guru
Excellent job. That just spells it out more clearly than anything else I've read. Is the underlying problem with Sundquist, Shanny, our scouting system, what?
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 2, 2007 11:02 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
So what if just one guy works out?
Thats a better average then Shanny had in the first part of the decade... and it would be a lot better if some asshole hadn't decided to keep it to real and went ahead and shot someone.
Visit the #1 Blog for CU Football, www.buffs.tv, for good times and the occasional tidbit of news or analysis. Shoulder to Shoulder Baby!
by Fallen on Nov 2, 2007 4:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft
Most of those guys were busts but the last two drafts i see good things. I see this trend continuing.
by TommyTSlice on Nov 3, 2007 12:48 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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