FanPost

Value for draft picks

    How would it benefit the Broncos to move down in the draft?  If the players they are targeting in the first round are not available, they might get more value for their pick by trading their 1st rounder for 2nd &/or 3rd round picks.  The Broncos have had more success with player development when they have moved around to target specific players in the 1st round such as Moss, Cutler, and D.J. Williams than when they took the best player available (BPA) at a position of need (Nash, Middlebrooks, Lelie, Foster).

    2nd round players are usually just as athletically capable as mid to late 1st  rounders, they might have dropped due to more questions or playing a position that doesn't have a lot of immediate need for most teams or they have specialized skills that need to be mated up with the right system or salary cap structure.

    The positions that Denver needs to get immediate upgrades at via the draft, LB, DT and Safety, in my opinion, usually have a lot of good value in rounds other than the 1st round.  For the last 5-6 years, there have been many reaches on DTs (Ryan Sims, Jonathan Sullivan, Ryan Pickett, etc.) due to team needs and the annual shortages of big bodies.  Most of the big DTs are difficult to evaluate for several reasons such as: needing more time to grow into their bodies, more time to develop stamina and the difficulty in determining the legitimate need for resting their big bodies versus lack of desire.  There were no reaches on DTs during last years 1st round.  Usually only 3 to 5 LBs are taken in the first round and since the Broncos won't be competing with teams that use 3-4 defenses for big LBs their chances of getting value in the 2nd round for fast run-containment-system LBs are high.  It is rare to see more than 2 safeties drafted in the 1st round, so the chance to get good value in the subsequent rounds is usually not a problem for this position.

    The Draft Trade Value Chart from the Great Blue North Draft Report site, http://www.gbnreport.com/index.htm, gives approximate numerical values of picks.  Sorry that the chart has some html conversion glitches, for easier viewing check out the GBN site.  Keep in mind that this is just a generalization of value, any item's price is ultimately determined by what the individual seller and buyer agree on.  An example of that is Denver trading a 2008 3rd round pick to Minnesota for their 2007 4th round pick.  That was done to get Marcus Thomas and looks like it was a productive trade.

    If Denver finishes in the 17 to 21 range, their pick will have a value of 950 to 800 points.  Miami's 2nd and their other 2nd (from San Diego for Chris Chambers) have values of 580 and approximately 420 to 360, based on San Diego finishing within an overall range of 17th to 22nd.  The total value of 780 could be spiced up with a late round pick or two.  Miami is desperate for immediate help and could probably get better results with another 1st round pick rather than two 2nd rounders and a couple of late rounders.  Having three 2nd rounders could bring some really quick talent upgrades to the defense.

    What if San Francisco wants to make up for the disastrous trade of their 1st rounder to New England and wants to get value from the pick they got from Indianapolis?  The Indy pick will be in the 27 to 31 range (600 to 680), add the SF 3rd rounder at about 245 for a total value of 845 to 925 and you have a deal!  A late 1st and an early 3rd might be good fits for the positions of need for Denver and would really create some exciting options.

    What are your ideas for the draft, what are your recommendations?      

DRAFT TRADE VALUE TABLE
Round 1
 #    Value    Round 2
#    Value    Round 3
#    Value    Round 4
#    Value    Round 5
#    Value    Round 6
#    Value    Round 7
#    Value
1    3000    33    580    65    266    97    112    129    43    161    27    193    14
2    2600    34    570    66    260    98    108    130    42    162    27    194    14
3    2200    35    560    67    255    99    104    131    41    163    26    195    13
4    1800    36    550    68    250    100    100    132    40    164    26    196    13
5    1700    37    540    69    245    101    96    133    40    165    25    197    13
6    1600    38    530    70    240    102    92    134    39    166    25    198    12
7    1500    39    520    71    235    103    88    135    39    167    25    199    12
8    1400    40    510    72    230    104    86    136    38    168    24    200    11
9    1350    41    500    73    225    105    84    137    38    169    24    201    11
10    1300    42    490    74    220    106    82    138    37    170    23    202    11
11    1250    43    480    75    215    107    80    139    37    171    23    203    10
12    1200    44    470    76    210    108    78    140    36    172    23    204    10
13    1150    45    460    77    205    109    76    141    36    173    22    205    9
14    1100    46    450    78    200    110    74    142    35    174    22    206    9
15    1050    47    440    79    195    111    72    143    35    175    21    207    9
16    1000    48    430    80    190    112    70    144    34    176    21    208    8
17    950    49    420    81    185    113    68    145    34    177    21    209    8
18    900    50    400    82    180    114    66    146    33    178    20    210    7
19    875    51    390    83    175    115    64    147    33    179    20    211    7
20    850    52    380    84    170    116    62    148    32    180    19    212    7
21    800    53    370    85    165    117    60    149    32    181    19    213    6
22    780    54    360    86    160    118    58    150    31    182    19    214    6
23    760    55    350    87    155    119    56    151    31    183    18    215    5
24    740    56    340    88    150    120    54    152    31    184    18    216    5
25    720    57    330    89    145    121    52    153    30    185    17    217    5
26    700    58    320    90    140    122    50    154    30    186    17    218    4
27    680    59    310    91    136    123    49    155    29    187    17    219    4
28    660    60    300    92    132    124    48    156    29    188    16    220    3
29    640    61    292    93    128    125    47    157    29    189    16    221    3
30    620    62    286    94    124    126    46    158    28    190    15    222    3
31    600    63    276    95    120    127    45    159    28    191    15    223    2
32    590    64    270    96    116    128    44    160    27    192    15    224    2

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Mile High Report

You must be a member of Mile High Report to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mile High Report. You should read them.

Join Mile High Report

You must be a member of Mile High Report to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mile High Report. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker