Denver versus San Diego: What To Watch For
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Date: Monday, December 24, 2007
Time: 6:30 p.m. MST
Teams: Denver Broncos (6-8, 2nd in AFC West) at San Diego Chargers (9-5, 1st Place in AFC West)
Location: Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
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It's not going to be the big game we had hoped for. It would have been perfect; both teams fighting for the AFC West championship on Christmas Eve. But at least Santa (a die hard Denver fan) will be able to get his ealry start to some places on Earth without having to wait and watch the whole game.
Worse, the Xs and Os of this game look bad for Denver. Never mind that SD is just a better team, they match up better against DEN too. SD hasn't won three straight over DEN since the early 1980's, and 4 since the late 1960's. But under Norv Turner (not the greatest of coaches) this team is built to shock Denver.
How can this be?
The SD rush offense
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that one of the best rushers in the league paired against one of the worst rush defenses should come out on top. But it runs much, much deeper that that.
By design, LT should be running behind his capable FB (Pinnock). SD also like to pull the guard opposite the run side to block for the runner. Our best pass rusher is too undersized (and should be lined to far outside) and our ROLB doesn't have the physical prowess to withstand the blocks of SD's FB and left tackle. I expect LT to run heavy to the left on inside rushes.
LT will also be screened right and available for the pass when our LOLB either covers Gates or blitzes. In short, LT tears up our defense almost single handedly.
In a run-contain system we would have the people and the system to blunt LTs rushes. The OLBs wouldn't be the prime tacklers (instead vectoring LT to the center). They would only be tackling when LT makes his turn down field, at a moment when he is vulnerable and temporarily slowed. He would now be heading into a pocket that would include the MLB and both safeties, with the opposite OLB angeling and dropping back to cover for any missed tackles. The big DTs in our future would force this scenario by never allowing runs up the middle, and our MLB would be there "just in case".
But in our current state, SDs designed plays overmatch our "individual" and not "team" interim system.
It gets worse...
SD's pass offense
Remember the days of putting Bailey on TE Gates? The threat of LT and Gates demanded that Bailey cover Gates, while a LB was assigned to LT. Not this time around. The acquisition of Chambers (WR) from MIA is a big part of the SD improvement from a bad start this year.
Bailey and Bly are both #1 quality CBs. Either one can cover an opposing #1 receiver. Because of this, Denver isn't moving the CBs around to cover opposing WRs. Bailey stays left, and Bly stays right. Here's the problem:
With a decent WR on the strong side (the right side, where Gates will line up) Bailey will really need to cover Chambers. If Gold was playing at his best he would still have a very rought time playing Gates. But Gold isn't playing at his best. He may even be out with an injury. If Webster is at LOLB you can just "forget about it". Teams use a LB or SAF to cover great TEs, so could we use a safety? No.
Lynch is too slow, and Hamza is the best option. But if we place Hamza on Gates we lose the entire backfield of coverage! Lynch is too slow to run a deep zone, and he'll be in the box to help with LT. Even with Bailey and Bly covering WRs, we need two safeties, not zero.
In short, LT will get the most plays by far. But when SD does decide to pass Gates will have even more opportunites than he has had against us in the past. A look at the last game DEN played against HOU should be a sneek peek. In that game we had to cover a great WR, and the HOU TE tore us to shreads.
DEN must pick up an excellent coverage safety in the offseason if they are going to match well against SD (and many other teams) moving forward.
The only hope for Denver against the pass (I don't see any hope in the rush) is to pressure Rivers (QB).
As great as their LT is, SD's RT is injured (he might not even play Monday night). If we can blitz our LOLB along with our pass rush by our DE (Eng) we can force SD to keep in an extra blocker (Gates or LT). That would be sweet! Rivers is a pocket passer, and would be in deep doo doo if he is flushed from the pocket. He also doesn't throw well under pressure.
Denver's pass offense
The news is a little better on offense, but not much. You have to respect SD's secondary. Jammer at CB is still capable, and Cromartie is an up and coming CB that has a real future. The safeties are good if not great, but they also have good depth.
Cutler is playing very well, and has the tools to use. Unfortunately the 3-4 system will make it harder for Cutler to read blitzes, and SD really has no weaknesses in their front seven. When in zone the short and medium passes are much more difficult, and in man coverage the Chargers have an extra man available not found in a 4-3. This extra LB can blitz, zone, or double up on a threat.
Because of the wide allignment of the 3-4 the famous signature play of the Broncos, the "bootleg", will not be a real threat. Wherever Jay rolls out, an OLB should be waiting to cream him.
Not sounding so good? Here comes my lecture about the value of Graham. I don't know his status for the game (the last I read was that both he and Gold may be out). The ideal way to meet the 3-4 is with two TEs. Two TE sets are used by teams to nuetralize the blitzes from the OLBs from 3-4 formations, and to add pass threats that pull the LBs to the edges of the field to set up inside runs. A Graham / Scheffler duo on the field would protect Cutler and give him options even more so than found against the typical 4-3 teams.
Without Graham ready to go I think the pass game is even at best. Without Graham Denver will either use another TE with Scheff or (more likely) tie up Sapp to help block. In this scenario Scheff may be stuck blocking, which doesn't play to his strength (receiving).
Denver's rush offense
Our best hope.
The bad news is that the front seven of SD is solid. The good news is that the zoneblock should rip up the SD version of the 3-4 and eat it for breakfast, if we run up the middle and if we establish a power running game.
SD runs the "Phillips 3-4" system. It is a one gap 3-4, unlike the Patriots two gap "Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4". It's weakness (every system has one) is that opposing teams can power run up the middle. If Henry is healthy he is our best chance to take advantage of SD's system.
We need to keep the SD offense off of the field for reasons I listed above. This means mutliple, short yardage plays to eat up the clock. It also means we need to wear down the defense. SD has the speed to counter fast dashes up the middle, and the system (4 LBs spread wide) to stop sweeps to the outside. But they have only 3 linemen to counter the effective zoneblock of Denver, and the strength of Henry would pick up the extra yards inside that Young or Hall would have a hard time with. Forget which RB you are more in love with, the SD system fears power rushers more than great speedsters.
After wearing them down we could mix in some speed and pick up the points.
Conclusions
- This should be a run oriented game by both teams.
- As in the HOU game, the need for Graham to complement Scheff is huge. If he is in we have a bad chance, if he is out we have a worse chance.
- The need for a third good WR is illustrated in this game. Three receiver formations would force SD into a nickle (either a base or a 3-3 nickle). A healthy Walker would be terrific. Stokely and Marshall without Walker (or with a hobbled Walker) won't force SD out of their 3-4. Scheff may not be able to be a third receiver either, as he will probably be needed to guard Cutler more often than not.
- All the intangibles work against us.
- The game is in SD
- The game is in SD on MNF
- SD is playing for a third seed, we are just playing for pride.
- The coaching staff may use this game to try out some guys.
- Potential decisions on who to hold out because of existing injuries affect Denver more in this game.
Watch the game, hope I look foolish, and root for Denver. Remember, half the fun at this point is looking forward to the exciting off season we have coming up, where just a few key pieces should help us immeasurably.
And of course, all of you have a safe, happy, and blessed Christmas this year.
As always I welcome any comments or questions. If you are new to MHR and are just learning some of the nuances of football, I'd be very happy to answer any questions about Xs and Os that you may have wondered about but didn't know who to ask. I'm an old pre-collegiate defensive coordinator from 7th grade to high school, but I don't bite. : )
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18 comments
Comments
You've just opened Pandoras Box...
If you are so willing to share your knowledge, i would be very, very happy if you could tell me a bit about cover2/Tampa2 (is it the same?).
I'm form Denmark, and the announcers on danish TV, are pretty much focused on answering questions like "What is a punt" and "Is it 3 or 4 downs you have to reach a new 1st?", so i find it hard to find information at an non-expert and though above danish level.
Consider it my Christmas wish for MHR. But watch out, there might be more lame questions comin'...
BTW i love your weekly breakdown - even it's bad news like this....
Cheers, Claus Vestergaard, Some Shit Hole in Europe!
by Claaaaas on Dec 20, 2007 12:23 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
Especially during the upcoming down time.
by John Bena on Dec 20, 2007 12:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm no hoosierteacher
And I love the idea of a football 101 series in the offseason, although I think with the combined knowledge of everyone at MHR we might be able to offer some more advanced courses :)
by MattR on Dec 20, 2007 3:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Clas Vest...
First, with apologies to my good friend MattR below, there are differences between the standard cover two and the Tampa 2. The Tampa 2 is a varient of the cover two, and by far the most popular. I'll cover this in a moment.
The first thing to remember is that the cover two is not a formation. It is a system. The cover two can be played out of both the 3-4 and the 4-3 formations. There are formations with the word "cover" in them, such as cover 3.
The cover two had it's roots back in the 1970's Pittsburgh Steelers. It was modified more recently by four coaches associated with the Tampa Bay Bucs (Dungy, Kiffin, Edwards, and Lovie Smith). It was modified from the original cover two scheme to adapt to the the wildly successful "West Coast Offense" which was shredding defenses at the time. The West Coast Offense (WCO) derived its strength from short low risk passes to multiple eligible receivers.
The original cover two (Steelers) featured two safeties in deep zone, an ILB or MLB in zone behind the d-line, and average CBs in zone near the line of scrimmage (in bump and run, then back into zone). All of the players had to be heavy hitters. The line did less pass rush and more run coverage.
The Tampa Two kept the safties in two deep zone, but placed the MLB (4-3) further back to protect the area between the safeties. The OLBs now were less concerned with being run stoppers, and were fast guys zoned between the DEs and the sideline. The d-line was also less run oriented, and focused on the pass rush. Blitzes were de-emphasized. The cover two was turned from a balanced "iron curtain" into a pass shutdown system.
The idea behind the cover two is to "not give up the big play. The defense hopes to give up multiple short plays, burn the clock, and give the offense more chances to give up a turnover on an interception or fumble. This approach to defense is called "bend, don't break".
Advantages include the ability to save money on elite CBs, since they are only playing zone. Disadvantages include an open seam for passes (between the OLB and DE) where the TEs ussualy get good passes, and being vulnerable to misdirection runs and passes alike.
Teams running the system include KC, BUF, INDY, TB, CHI, and DET. Perhaps MattR meant that the terms are used together (Tampa 2 and Cover 2) because we don't see the original cover two used much. This is correct, but if we are going to be precise the Tampa 2 is a modern variation of an older system. MattR makes an excellent point too: just because there are two deep safeties does NOT make a system a cover two. Many American sports broadcasters also make the mistake of refering to two deep safeties as a cover two formation. There is no "cover 2 foramtion". The cover two is an approach to defense that happens to have two deep safeties, but other systems (and formations) feature 2 deep safeties as well.
Your Christmas wish will be granted. I will be doing a column for MHR in the offseason about football strategy. I will discuss formations, systems, play calling, and play creation. I will cover history of strategic development, as well as modern applications. I will always make myself available to answer any questions.
By the way, I love Denmark. I dated a girl briefly in college named Wendela Haringhuizen (I'm sure I spelled that wrong). I developed from this relationship a passion for all things Danish. Please invite any of your friends who enjoy football to join us at MHR. I would love to help any of our football friends in Denmark.
I hope I have answered your question. I look forward to more.
Take care!
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 7:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
that's why I said
by MattR on Dec 20, 2007 7:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but....
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 7:52 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
And if you don't want to waste other readers time
claaaas@hotmail.com
:D
by Claaaaas on Dec 20, 2007 12:24 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
My good friend
I have been discussing with Guru the concept of creating a "Football 101" column which would include an invitation for questions. Your "Pandora's Box" is music to our ears!
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 7:30 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Even simple questions are valuable to the rest of
HT, can you explain why a team would use a one gap scheme, I though the strength of the 3-4 was that the 3 down lineman occupied five gaps, freeing up the LBs to move to the action unhindered by blockers.
I also read an article quoting Sam Adams early in the season that said the new Denver system was not a pur two gap system for the DTs, they were more like a one and a half gap system. I was unfamiliar with that and had a hard time understanding the execution and responsibilities for that type of DT usage.
by Arctic Bronco on Dec 20, 2007 12:51 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I would be glad to.
The d-lineman in this system are lighter but faster than the linemen in a two gap system. They use a lot more slants and are able to depend on the use of LBs to make up for their size disadvantage. There is more blitzing, and the system can often be confused with the PITT system which depends heavily on blitzes. In fact, the PITT system and the SD/DAL systems are borrowing a lot from each other.
The speed of the D-line also allows alot of zone blitzes, where the LBs blitz and some d-linemen drop back into zone.
The Phillips is more aggressive than the 3-4 run by other teams. In comparison, the NE version is very conservative (bend don't break). In fact, the system has its roots in the old 3-4 Orange Crush from the Broncos. This is the reason that the NE d-line doesn't rack up a lot of sacks. They occupy the o-line (as you point out).
I read the article you mentioned that quoted Sam Adams. It confused me too. The point of the DTs in the run-contain is to "lock and hold". This is classic two gap. But Adams stated that the "experts" don't know what they are talking about, because the run-contain is NOT a two gap.
Count me as one of those "experts" who doesn't get it either. I can only guess that there is a subtlety in how the DTs lock up their assignments that varies slightly from a traditional 2 gap that I am unaware of. It is just as likely that Adams was just mad at the reporter(s) and toyed with them. If the run contain is locking up the o-line with DTs running some kind of weird gap technique I would join you in being facinated with learning more about it.
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 7:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Can D-backs in zone defenses get by
Now that I am almost done with my deployment I will have time to get back into coaching (hockey, football, track and baseball). When I coach football, I hope to find a head coach that will needs help with the defense and special teams. I like speed and I like working with the fast players.
The high school where I started assisting the coaches several years ago ran a 3-4 with two gap linemen the first two years. My last year there they got a new head coach and defensive coordinator. They switched to one gap linemen for 4-3 and 5-2 alignments. The D-backs were taught to play zone and man to man.
I applauded the switch to one gap defensive linemen because that relieved some of the fatigue from the previous "no rotation" ironman system. The one gap system let the irreplaceable players in the program, the big but slow offensive linemen, get some rest and let players who were quick but too small to play offense be starters on defense. I wish I could have stayed and learned more from the defensive coordinator but I had to go work out of town. Soon I will be able to relocate to a place where I can be stationary, then I can get back into coaching again.
by Arctic Bronco on Dec 20, 2007 10:16 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
My reply is "Cool deal" below.
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 11:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Cool deal!
Excellent question about mud fields and DB speed. Here's my two cents.
I am like you. I like rotations and I LOVE speed. Speed kills. You can't coach speed. Those are some of my favorite phrases I learned coming up through the coaching ranks. But as you know, a muddy, snowy, or slippery field negates the speed advantage. So if you are like me and love man coverage, speedy d-backs, or any speed position you are in bad shape on those fields.
If your environment has poor field conditions most of the time you should certainly consider a system more designed for zones. This doesn't mean you ignore the fast kids trying out. In high school you get what the middle schools feed you. But even if you have a young Champ Bailey straight off of the track team he should be zoning on a team playing many games on poor fields.
The lateral mobility is limited in any case (sorry). If in doubt, place a kid further back in coverage for his zone in bad conditions (since he can move forwards quicker than backwards). Remember that the receivers get a jump in the slow conditions since they know the route, and the pass rush is less effective too. Good offenses will focus more on power rushing in those conditions, so you want to build your defense for that. Even if the opposing team likes speed kids, they shouldn't be a threat in bad conditions. In the worst scenario you have good conditions and go up against a fast team, but all is not lost. You can still unleash your kids in man if you want to (and have fast kids), or at worst play a solid bend don't break and you'll be fine.
You also want practices that aim more towards endurance. Athletes lose a lot of energy trudging around in bad conditions, either because they are fighting the mud or because they run while bracing themselves against slipping. Athletes also tend to hold their breath more while running in bad conditions (again, bracing for slips). Watch the kids in practice and remind them they need to breath the entire time. Endurance training will also build build their ability to hold oxyegen longer and use it more efficiently.
Also consider spending the extra money for the best trainers in town. You want kids taped around their ankles because of the danger of twists, sprains, and strains from stresses on tendons and ligaments in that environment.
Last, get with a good sporting goods shoe specialist for advice on the cleat adjustments for your area. It sounds like Alaska would range from mud, to icy hard ground, to a more regular surface, to a wet surface. Depending on the soil and the weather you will want to know which cleats to use in different situations.
Of course the guys who have coached in Alaska know the field conditions and the adjustments they like better than I do, so go with them if their is any disagreement. But I imagine the advice is universal for poor field conditions, and the advice stands if you find yourself in a coaching position where you are thrust in near the top without much guidance.
Again, good luck to you! Do us all proud brother!
by Steve Nichols on Dec 20, 2007 11:53 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I almost forgot.
I liked Coyer, but his weakness (in my opinion) was making adjustments. It showed in that game.
by Steve Nichols on Dec 21, 2007 12:00 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda late, but if you see this...
I guess my questions are, is Marcus Thomas a run-contain tackle, and who else are we going to use to compliment him if we run this system next year, and finally, will we do any better with this system next year?
by poorboywilly on Dec 24, 2007 12:10 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Not late at all.
by Steve Nichols on Dec 24, 2007 10:51 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I'm back
1. Re-build the run-contain for next year?
That's the million dollar question. Bates is a great coach with a great system that has proved itself in MIA and GB. On the other hand, he inherited a defense that fell apart the second half of '06 (from Coyer) and continued to fail in '07. There are several ways this could go, and I'm not sure what will happen. The possibilities are:
- We keep Bates and he keeps trying to implement his system. As you mention, with smaller tackles this may indicate that this won't happen.
- We keep Bates but change to a different system. There is a misunderstanding amongst fans that a coordinator only runs a particular system. Good coordinators (and Bates is one of them) are able to not only to run different systems, but create new systems. A run contain CAN be run with a full penatrating line, but then adjustments have to be made to other positions.
- We drop Bates. I doubt this will happen. The players quoted on the record seem to indicate that the defensive issues were player issues, not coaching.
2. Was Adams dropped because of him, or because of a system change?
I was a fan of Adams coming in. So it pains me to say it, but Adams wasn't performing. He was getting pushed back and to the side by younger and more athletic linemen, and was unable to lock and hold. When the system changed he had the chance to be a penetrator, but didn't do so well in that role either.
3. Is Thomas a run-contain tackle?
What you are asking is, can he lock and hold? The classic profile of a lock and hold DT has two parts. The DT is big, and he has excellent balance. This is not always the case, because somtimes a DT has unusual strength to account for smaller size. Either way, he must be able to keep his feet under him while he dances with one or two big o-linemen.
I believe that Thomas can play either role (hold or penetrate). If he couldn't, he probably wouldn't still be on the team (Mike has been slashing players left and right). I think we'll get a better idea of Thomas going into his next year, and I think he should get that chance. Worth noting too is that McKinley survived cuts as well.
4. Who else will we get (at DT)?
I would be shocked if we don't shoot for DTs high or mid draft. If an outstanding DT becomes available in FA or trade that could be a possibility. I seriously doubt that Haynesworth will get a look given his past behavior. Guys like Amir and Styg are much more on top of personel moves, while I focus more on onfield systems and playcalling. Stick around, because your question on this will be addressed a LOT at MHR in the next few weeks.
5. Will we do any better next year?
I believe we will, whether we use run-contain or not. We have an offseason to build, and plenty of time for the coaching staff to evaluate what needs to be done to fix our problems on defense. I doubt we will go from near last to first in run defense, but I think we will improve to at least midrange in the NFL (in rush defense). That's still not great, but it's good improvement. Bates will almost certainly tweak the system, or move to something else. That's the sign of a good coach. Coyer was a sharp guy, but couldn't make in game or mid-season adjustments. Bates hasn't impressed anyone yet, but he HAS shown a willingness to adjust when his way isn't working. I admire that.
I also think that the pass defense will soar. With the return of Jarvis Moss from IR playing DE with Doom, and with the depth at DE, AND with Hamza at SAF now (and a probable pick-up of another SAF in the offseason), I can't see how we don't improve. Add in improvements to our DT corps and the pass defense should rank near the top.
The run defense needs a LOT of work. DTs (at LEAST one, but really two), LB (again, at LEAST one but really two), and SAF (one). I think the Broncos will go all out for fixing the defense. We have an agressive general manager in Sundquist, and Shanahan and Bates know that the defense is the only thing stopping us from going all the way. I expect some good drafting, and some pleasant surprises in terms of at least one trade and a couple of FA signings.
To sum it up, I believe we will be competitive next year with SD for the division playoff spot.
I see SD playing at the the same level next year as they played the second half of this season. They'll be very good.
I see KC in decline, but rebuilding.
I see oak improving, passing KC, and perhaps in the running for a wc.
I see DEN having a record simular to SD next year, but not matching well against them in terms of head to head play.
So the bottom line to my long winded answer is that Denver will improve next year. We'll have to see by how much.
by Steve Nichols on Dec 24, 2007 11:38 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey poorboywilly
He is in GB now, and will be a FA this offseason. He has played 4 years in the league, 3 within Bates' system. He is VERY good, so why would GB want to let him go?
Partly it is because all FAs are generally overpaid, but he is worth what he will be paid, as long as the team that signs him uses him correctly, i.e. within a run-contain system. But mostly it is because they already have his replacements, and they are just as good as he is, and younger (not by much though).
You see, GB was in pretty much the same place we are now when they went to implement this system. They went after DT much like we will in this offseason, and they kept going after them for three years. The result (credit to their scouting office) was a glut of DTs. They may decide that they don't want to part with Corey, but there is some rumbles that he may not adjust well to the double-teaming he has earned as part of his success (and which HT will be the first to tell you is essential to his play in run-contain). But he is considered to be coachable, and his coaches all feel he has even more upside to be tapped. We will see who is willing to pay him for that upside.
On a side note, this guy has had to overcome a lot of adversity, and I think he would make a great lockerroom and community addition for the Broncos. Both his parents died before he was twenty, and he suffered through the death of his first daughter just after she was born prior to his being drafted. He has risen above those tragedies and embraced everything this life has to offer. I would love to see this guy in the orange and blue, and I think he may be attracted to what we can offer. If his roots aren't too deeply settled in GB, that is, since he has been treated great while he has been there...
by Jeremy Bolander on Dec 25, 2007 12:31 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

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