For those of you who have read my stuff before, go on ahead and check out my upset picks for Week 5. 

Previous Week: 1-3
Overall Record: 4-4

Picking games each week is really a science.  One must choose where to take a chance.  Picking the favorite every week will basically guarantee you a 55% winning percentage.  The good pick'em players have a knack for picking the right underdogs.  Thanks to my old man, I have been picking games for 20+ years.  I have my ups and downs, but I usually end up with a top tier record.  I would attribute that picking the right underdogs a majority of the time.

I grade my upset picks based on the level of risk involved.  The first tier is the riskiest picks, which bring the highest reward in pick'em leagues but can also cause disaster for you which happened to me last week.  The second tier bring less risk than the top tier, because the favorite is not as heavily favored to win.  And the third tier risk is basically a coin flip that could go either way, those are the most irritating games because they are so damaging when the coin flip doesn't go your way.

First Tier Upsets:

New England @ San Francisco

This one has got the be one of the riskiest picks simply because no one really knows which Patriots team will show up.  San Francisco has been a surprisingly solid football team thus far.  If their defense can keep it up against this week then the have a chance to put the Patriots in pass-only situations which would all but secure a 49er victory here.  San Francisco by 10.

Here is a quick run down of some other high risk potential upset picks that I did not take this week:

Arizona over Buffalo
Baltimore over Tennessee
Washington over Philadelphia
Seattle over New York

Second Tier Picks:

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

The Jaguars have not been impressive this year, but the Steelers are hurting at some key positions right now and are coming off of a hard fought physical game on Monday.  Many of the suckers out there will pick the Steelers based on record and previous performance.  I expect the Steelers to come out flat in Jacksonville.  Jags by 3.

Third Tier Picks:

Tampa Bay @ Denver

The Buccaneers are clearly the more balanced team and after suffering through a week of media slamming the Broncos look for most people to take the Bucs in this game.  The thing no one every seems to consider when picking games is coaching.  This game is going to feature two of the best, but Shanny seems to have Gruden's number and Shanny also hates to lose two in a row.  Look for the Broncos to come out with a vengence and to finish a game for the first time since Week 1.  Broncos by 14.

There you have it.  My upset picks for Week 5.  I doubt anyone will be swayed by my opinion, but hopefully I can add some perspective on some of the picks I made to those of you out in the ether world!  The most important thing is to take great care with who your take for your upset picks.  If you took all the upset picks you'd end up winning 45% of your picks, so these picks really are the difference between a great week and an average one. Good luck to all you pick'em fools out there and GO BRONCOS!