Scouting The Broncos - Can the 2009 Draft Class Fix Our DT woes?
by Steve Nichols on Oct 8, 2008 11:00 AM MDT
in MHR Scouting Services
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First, let's start with a few reasonable assumptions.
- It's far to early to know who will get drafted when in the 2009 class.
- We can never know for sure who Denver will draft.
- Our current DTs may step up at some point this season.
All that being said, I would like for us to explore what is out there. The difference between Denver being average and terrific is only one or two players away in my opinion. The DT is the foundation of the defense, protecting LBs so they can do the LBs' job, and occupying the center so the DEs can pass rush.
Let's see what the possibilities are. Read on....
Let me disclose some of the bias that I have for the DT position for next year. First, I want our next DT to be a big run stuffer. Some may think that this hinders the pass rush, but this simply isn't true.
Only in Madden Football does one have to choose between a run stuffer and a pass rusher. In real football, there are advantages and disadvantages either way. For example, smaller but quicker DTs play a one gap style to stop the run, and use agility to get to the backfield. Bigger (albeit slower) DTs are able to handle two gaps to stuff runs, but contribute greatly to the pass rush by occupying several offensive linemen. One is not better than the other. But in certain situations (like the one Denver inds itself in), I think we need more of the big dogs to come out to play.
What ails Denver at DT (in my opinion) is an inability to consistently stop the opposition running game, and an inability to support the pass rush. That is the first bias I bring to the table. I want big DTs and I want them strong.
My second bias is that I want character guys, and don't want to take too many chances on injury histories. Denver is on the right track with avoiding character problems, but they like to take risks with injuries. This probably skews my analysis as well.
Any way, here's a quick look at some players, and what I think.
Moala USC
Is projected to be a top twenty pick. Was arrested, and this knocks him out of contention for Denver if we are focused on avoiding "Henry", "Walker", and "Rice" like problems.
Owens GA
I love that they guy can bench over 525, and I like his speed. He'll be terrific for some team out there, but I doubt we get him. First, he isn't the big guy that we want. Second, he'll be off the board before we would get him.
Granger OK
Under suspension for shoplifting.
Oghobaase Duke
Now this is the kind of guy I'm talking about! Could go late first round, top of the second. 6-6, 310 pounds. The cool part? His body fat is very low. That's muscle and size baby! A run stuffer if there ever was one.
Marks Auburn
Excellent, fast DT that can play at DE and STs and has blocked two FGs. The problem is that he doesn't fit our needs.
Taylor MI
A good combination of size and speed, and a good potential for Denver. 6-0, 317 is big enough to stuff the middle, but a 5.11 is pretty good for that kind of size.
Walker GT
A good combo of run stopping and speed to the QB, but not as much run stuffing as I would like.
Woods LSU
Late 2nd, early 3rd. 6-5, 314 lbs. Depending on how he does this year, could jump up the charts. Was overshadowed a bit by Glenn Dorsey. Keep an eye on him.
Jerry Ole Miss
6-2, 305 lbs, and can run under 5! Might have potential.
Hood MO
Solid player, but not a dominator.
Raji BC
6-1, 325. A terrific run stuffer, but questions with academic eligibility. Needs to have his head screwed on straight. A dominator if he overcomes his classroom issues.
Scott Clemson
This kid looks awesome. Late third, early fourth, but a giant who works his butt off at everything he does. Wants to learn, 6-4 and 315 lbs. A steal if you ask me!
Hypolite CO
Very well rounded, and an excellent pick-up for a team that can afford a good all around player. Just not the giant dominator that we need.
Magee Purdue
Durable, and can start every game. Not the big giant in the middle I'm looking for.
Favorite LSU
Again, a speey guy with talent, but not a 2 gapper.
Bolden Tenn
Neck injury.
Brace BC
Taking over for Raji, who has the academic problems we discussed. But heck, this guy is a giant 2 gapper too! 6-3, 330 lbs, All ACC honorable mention, and in seven games had 7.5 tackles for a loss and 2.5 sacks. What, are they recruiting giants at BC?
At this point, I'm going to quickly go over the guys projected to be 5th round and later worth considering.
Abdallah OH
Big, fast, great numbers. I'm confused as to why he isn't projected to go higher.
Dixon MIA
Ok, has a knee injury in his history. But migt be worth a late round gamble. A beast in the center of the line, weighs 328; 6-3.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I've said before that I'm not a scout, and I'll leave the real MHR scouting to the guys who follow the college game more than I do. But in reading WalterFootball.com (courtesy of a link provided by Colinski), I got a feel for what I would look for as a coach. Most years I would like to look at one and two gappers on equal terms. But wih the type of players we are fielding at LB and DE, as well as the types and depth we have at DT, I would prefer we stock up on the 2 gap, big run stuffer type. I believe this would improve the play at LB greatly, allow our DEs to get the rush, and (by extension) help our CBs to pick off more passes.
What do you guys think?
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Sign me up for a DT and a Safety
I agree we are 1-2 players away from insanity, but i don’t think drafting a safety will have as big of an effect on next year, I think he will need time to develop, or at least should be given time to develop. A well scouted DT can start immediately and id like to use a first rounder on one. I think ill get some trashtalk for suggesting we go after a safety in the free agency again, but if theres a upgrade available, the time for Denver is now.
I agree 100%
1st and 2nd round should maybe look at Safety and DT—whichever is available with more value at that point in the draft. I think when you look at dominant teams you see a player like Polamalu and Bob Sanders or a young Lynch as the heart and soul of a team. It’s obvious we need to look at DT, but Broncfanstuckinsd is right, don’t forget about Powell…but at the same time, don’t rely on him 100% either, another talented DT never hurt
—consider what the Giants did in the recent past too…perhaps if there is greater talent with a Dominating DE maybe we should look at getting him…People always wondered why they stocked up on DE’s. Didn’t Tuck get shifted to DT from DE and become immensly valuable, then get shifted back to DE after Osi got hurt, and still prove to be a talented DE? I could be wrong. I just think if there is a dominating D-lineman in general who is available at our slot we should look at them—not just focus on DT
"...The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming.."
--Teddy Roosevelt, The Man in the Arena
What about Powell
Are we already forgetting about him? I think that maybe a MLB or safety is more important right now. See too me its a little too early to say what this team needs right now. I want to see how this defense either gets better or worse during the next 10 games or so. But if you had to ask me right now I would have to go with safety first. I think this week is going to be telling
somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong
by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 8, 2008 11:43 AM MDT reply actions
Powell is a rotation guy
who, if healthy next season, may be able to contribute. If not, he may go the way of Paul Toviessi, because the team isn’t going to pay a 5th round guy to be hurt for 2 years.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Oct 8, 2008 12:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Safety first
But if you had to ask me right now I would have to go with safety first.
When I see how much difference Sanders makes at Indy, how long in the tooth we’re getting at the position, and how poorly our current safeties play (bad angles in run support, mediocre pass defense), it makes me think we really need to start grooming one or two young guys. We at least have young people developing on the d-line, but we have mediocre veterans as our last line of defense. Or so it seems to me.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
I voted "at least 3"
A dominant DL, with depth for rotation, will make all other defensive positions better.
2 names to know..
Ricky Jean-Francois of LSU is a 3-technique DT, who is a Junior. He made news this week by saying the LSU D-Line was going to try to take out Tim Tebow. (Good luck with that.) Jean-Francois projects as a mid first rounder right now, and Mike Lombardi thinks he will end up better than Glenn Dorsey.
Terrence Cody, a Junior JC transfer of the Alabama Crimson Tide, is a beast of a 2-gap NT. He’s 6-5 and about 365 lbs. The weight sounds high, but he is an exceptional athlete, who is almost unblockable at the SEC level. I expect him to be a first round pick too. He reminds me of a bigger Pat Williams.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
what about
Harwell from UCLA. I might be a little biased in case you couldn’t tell by the name, but Harwell is one of those guys that other teams have to gameplan against, and he has had success against most teams including all those USC O-Lineman that go to the NFL, probably won’t go off the board till later on, I’m sure we could look him up. the other DT, Price is an absolute beast, but hes prob. not going in the draft this year. Just a thought.
Look at other good defenses....
Vikings – P. Williams and K. Williams
Jaguars (last year and before) – Stroud and Henderson
Panthers (also last year and before) – Jenkins and Lewis
Patriots – Wilfork and Seymour
Titans – Haynesworth
Bears – Harris and Johnson
Chargers – Williams
The point is when you look at the defenses who have been the most solid over the past few years alone, a common factor was solid interior defensive linemen. Why haven’t Champ and Dre had anywhere near the interceptions that they’ve had for the rest of their careers? Did they suddenly just get old? I don’t think so. They have no pass rush in front of them AND they are constantly having to cheat up against the run. Getting the CB to take a split-second pause is the whole point of play-action and it kills our CB’s because they absolutely cannot trust the front 4 to stop the run at any time. Solidifying the front 4, specifically at the DT spot, is the key to taking this D to the next level, regardless of scheme.
Or so I'm told.
I actually like the other DT that Colorado has
Hypolite is good but the other DT whose name I forget actually is a better prospect IMO, I think Hypolite is a tad too small for a DT but could be a very good DE in in 3-4 scheme.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
You may be right.
I’m not a scouting guy, and don’t follow a lot of college ball. But one thing that is hard to do (when looking at DTs) is too judge them without tape. When I watch tape, I often find that one DT does the dirty work (occupy two OLmen) while the other DT gets the glory (tackles, sacks, hurry-ups, etc). I haven’t seen film on these two, and one of them may very well be a victim of the scenario I outlined. (The scenario happens with most DTs). I’m sure you have more knowledge on both players than I do, as I’m relying on what I can find from a few sites doing early scouting.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 8, 2008 4:41 PM MDT up reply actions
What about the guy Alabama has, someone had posted a link to him that look like someone we could use.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
That's Terrence Cody
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
Question
How long (months, years) does it normally take for a DT to come up to speed in the NFL? If it takes several years, would it better to try and get a FA?
Victor Frankl:
What man actually needs is not a tensionless state but rather the striving and struggling for some goal worthy of him. What he needs is not the discharge of tension at any cost, but the call of a potential meaning waiting to be fulfilled by him.
Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.
That is a key question
and will make the Graham boys think hard.
That’s ok with me. We’re playing for wins, not media publicity....HT 9/11/08
The rule of thumb is 2 to 3 years.
But many turn out to be busts, and a very, very few come right out and play well. It’s a very hard position to get right, and that’s why it is hard to get a good DT, either in the draft, FA, or trade (when a team has a great DT, they hold onto him).
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 8, 2008 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Hybrid 3-4
If we continue to use more of this Slowik Hybrid 3-4 (this is what I am calling it, feel free to follow suit) I think it might change our needs on the d-line. Last saturday I saw Terrance Cody for Alabama, he’s 6-5 370. He would be a beast in the middle of 3-4 alignment. I worry about his health at that weight though, I mean his knees have to be killing him. He is only a junior so who knows if he comes out early or not.
by RockyMountainThunder on Oct 8, 2008 3:33 PM MDT reply actions
A lot of the MHR faithful like him.
But it depends on the draft too. A lot of the guys with a shot at immediate impact should be out of our range if we continue to do well this season. A lot of DTs can be busts too, so it might be good to go after several middle round picks, or (my prefence) go after a DT each year in the draft while filling in with FAs until we hit on a couple of draft DTs. I don’t like going high for a DT, but when draft season rolls around it’s hard not to get excited by some of the top prospects.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 8, 2008 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Even first-round DTs don't always pan out
That’s why I’d rather go after a safety in the first round, then draft two or even three d-linemen in the early to middle rounds. I think we have a better chance of striking gold that way.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on Oct 8, 2008 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Blue chip 1st rounder
Because of the salary they command, I agree with picking the best available in the 1st round, regardless of position. After that, start loading up on needs.
I have my eyes on a couple of guys
I want Marks (Auborn) and Tyson Jackson (LSU).
Both are in the 290lbs range and they can both play at DT or DE.
I think they fit our D in 3 ways.
1. You can pair Marks up with Thomas or Robertson, and he will be able to help bring pressure up the middle, which is very important**. Jackson will be able to take over for Ekuban&Engleberger (both on their way out) as the big DE that stuffs the run and helps collapse the pocket from the left side. (That’s assuming that Crowder will become a backup for now.)
2. If we decide to use more of the 3-4, these guys can be excellent DE’s in that system, next to Thomas or Robertson lined up at NT.
3. If we decide to have a short-yardage/goal-line package, we could have Thomas and Robertson at DT, with Marks and Jackson lined up at DE. That’s a very strong line that wont be pushed around.
4. Personally I want them both at DT. This way we will have a really athletic and powerful group of young DTs. I like a DT to be right around that 300lbs mark, that way they can move better and have more stamina. Having Thomas, Marks, and Jackson would be insanely great.
One last remark : Attacking the edge is good, but if the QB can just step up the pocket and deliver the ball, then it is still not good enough. Justin Tuck put a lot of pressure on Brady by lining up over center and getting in Brady’s face.
Go So Cal. I am the bigger one.
Great Drop in the Hat HT
You do us a favor in listing qualities you would look for in a DT. I am happy to have this analysis it helps in projecting the proper players for us. Walter football is a great site as long as it is used sparingly and simply to find projected draft picks! (Great Job) I would advise all to not look to one site to get info and be sure to get out and watch the games!
Personal Opinion I like guys who are medium (270-300) and are both strong and fast (we did this with Carlton Powell). Guys who are not A-Typical but a hybrid of both running and passing nightmares. I believe there are a few out there this year but because they do not “Stand Out” they will be later round picks (i.e. Powell and Thomas). I look at guys who can plug the gap but also create the pressure or sense of pressure to a quarterback. Even if the O-lineman doesn’t lose his step on you but you are pushing him back, thats pressure and thats what I want to see.
Again I can not stress how important you are to MHR and our reader base!
YOU ROCK HT!!!
" He goes against Champ everyday." -Jay Cutler
Davis to the Hall!
What about these guys
I would like to know what anyone thinks of the chances of these guys stepping up next year:
Steven Harris – Practise squad
Josh Barrett – Practise Squad
Roderick Rogers – Practise Squad
Carlton Powell – Injured
I particularly like the the look of Harris and Barrett – they both look to have good size for their positions, and people were raving about Barretts physical attributes after he was drafted.
Maybe we won’t need to draft a safety next year?
Some thoughts
Barret: Even if he pans out and realizes his immense skill set, he will ideally be used as a run support safety, re. Strong Safety. He is a vicious hitter, fast with ball hawking ability. We would still want another, fast, fluid, and smart safety to cover the deep field and be the “man with the plan” in the backfield. i don’t think we should stop adding talent at the position, because at best Barrett only covers us at one spot.
Rogers: In the preseason he got a lot of work in special teams, but he graded out below average at safety. His development was enough to prompt the Broncos to let Hamza go, but that isn’t saying much. Rogers needs to stay healthy first, and use next years training camp to prove he can get on the field. I seriously doubt the Broncos hold him as an inactive gameday player once his PS eligibility runs out, and he doesn’t seem to have the “IT” factor that this defense needs. Denver is guaranteed to have safeties in camp to challenge him, and if those safeties are Barrett, Manuel and McCree, he will be gone if he doesn’t get a lot better.
Powell: I really like this player, and think he will suit exactly what we want. i also think he has the maturity and smarts to come along faster than most players, probably why he was put on the PUP instead of IRed: as a PUP player he will ahve access late in the season to coaches and training options that he wouldn’t have if he was IRed. I think the coaches recognize that he will contribute sooner than later, so they want to leave open the option that they will ahve room on the 53 to at least get him some practice reps, or find a way to get him to the practice squad. He is a 2 gap DT who eats double teams for breakfast, but won’t make a name for himself getting to QBs. He lacks the explosiveness of a player like DRob or Thomas, but is an ideal run stopper. If he doesn’t have much of a setback from the injury (again, he is a very mature player) I think he will be a difference maker in 09, allowing this team to hold other teams running games in check early in the game, and when the offense is struggling.
Harris: I view Harris as a poor man’s Carlton Powell. I think the big question for him will be whether he has the maturity and character to work his way into the lineup. The road to the NFL is littered with players who had the size and speed, but not the proper mindset. It is important that we keep drafting talent into this team, because that will push the rest of the players to keep their jobs. The 06-07 Broncos had room on their rosters for players like Harris. He really didn’t even have to improve to keep his spot this year, because we have no depth at the position. That lack of stimulation is bad for hima dn bad for us, since their is no incentive for him to get better in that situation. It is a different story when he has to beat out some serious talent to keep his spot. i think he has the ability, but we won’t know if he has the right mindset until there are young players here to challenge him.
Royal I think, is a good example of a mature player responding to competition. If Royal doesn’t crack the starting lineup, there is no guarantee he even makes the team, with as much money we spent and depth we ahd at the position. The opposite of that would be Hixon and Marshall in 07. neither player was really in danger of losing a roster spot, regardless of how bad they were, they were jsut in danger of not being the starter, since we had no depth at WR. Marshall eventually stepped up, but not until after the season was already underway.
Sadly, I think this year was Barrett’s chance to step up, since we had the depth and veterans to challenge him to reach his potential, but he couldn’t show enough “git em” to get on the field. I only hold out hope with him because of how Denver has perrennially handled the safety position. I think that even if he showed raw talent they would have favored the polish of the veterans, since this defense has little room for error. Also, unlike Royal who can profit from a great oline and QB, our safeties don’t look as good as they would if the dline and MLB were better.
Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.
by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 8, 2008 11:29 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you for this post
I really appreciate your player analysis. Especially of the guys that we don’t get to see play every week.
A couple of things....
Lots of us are looking for a quick fix, or for one of these college players to come in and turn it all around at DT.
I agree that is takes 2-3 years for a DT to develop.
SO…..How good is Marcus Thomas then? The guys is a PLAYER. He started in his first year and is regular starter now who is juts going to get better.
I am impressed that the kid has had to learn 3 different schemes yet he keeps getting better. I like Carlton Powell as well. Nic Clemons, for all intention purposes, is a 1st year DT after playing DE his short career. Dewayne Robertson could be with us for another 2-4 years.
I think we are not as bad at DT as a lot of people think. We need to let this play out a bit. The D Line is improving with a markedly different scheme.
yeah, draft a DT but for depth….we have needs at safety.
I think we may see Josh Barrett enter the roster after the bye. The broncos like the kid, and I think he will be a great player for us.
If we can go safety in the draft, and maybe a good OLB we should be in good shape.
I also have not written off the chance that we might go after a Cory Redding in the next 6 days before the trade deadline.
Great thread and recommended!
I didn't vote............
We are either young or playing new positions on the D-line, I would rather let the season pan out first before I decide what I would want Denver to go after. I think there are still some question marks and we need to wait and see where the biggest need is. I think it is obvious that we need more talent at safety and linebacker, D-line may be set and only require a late rounder for depth. We just need to let the season play itself out before we decide. If I had to pick right now I’d say we need a safety and an Al Wilson type MLB. Maybe a DT in the later rounds.
The player who thinks he can and the player who knows he can are two different players, which one are you???
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