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Brad's NFL Picks - Week Six - 2008

Star-divide

14 more games this week, but only two division games.

Brad's Picks was 9-5 last week, on the mark when Denver beat the Bucs 16-13; when the Bears stuffed Detroit 34-7; when Miami stuffed the Chargers 17-10 (that's 7 consecutive wins over the Chargers); when the Falcons won at Lambeau 27-24; when the New York Giants totally embarrassed the Seahawks 44-6; when the Titans edged Baltimore 13-10; when Carolina whupped the Chiefs 34-0; when Dallas had a hard time with the Bengals but won 31-22; and when Arizona beat the Bills 41-17.

Brad's Picks was off the mark when Houston turned it over three times in the last four minutes and coughed up 21 points to the Colts to lose 31-27; when the Redskins won at Philly 23-17; when the Patriots beat San Francisco 30-21; when the Steelers came from behind to win at Jacksonville 26-21on SNF; and when The Vikings beat New Orleans 30-27on MNF, despite two punt returns for TD's by Reggie Bush.

Brad's Picks is 50-24 on the season.

Home teams were 6-7 overall last week, and are 42-32 on the season.

Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast were 3-1 last week, and are 9-2 on the season. There are two coast to coast games this week: Eagles at San Francisco and Patriots at San Diego (give another asterisk to this one, since the Patriots stayed on the west coast after last week's game at San Francisco).

George was 8-6 last week, and is 35-38 on the season.

NFC 3, AFC 2 last week. On the season, it's NFC 10, AFC 8.

Brad's Picks is going to start tracking how well teams do the week after they had a bye - I've been curious about this for some time. After the first (Hurricane Ike imposed) bye week (Week Two), it was 1-1 in Week Three, as Houston lost and Baltimore won after the hurricane. Teams with a bye in Week Four were Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Seahawks and the Giants, and they went 4-2 the next week. So, on the season, teams coming off a bye are 5-3.

Brad's Picks will also begin monitoring how well the MNF teams did the next Sunday. So far the record is 7-3. (The first MNF had two games - Vikings at Green Bay and Broncos at Oakland. Broncos and Packers won the next week, Vikings and Raiders lost. Week Two's MNF teams were Eagles at Dallas, and both won the next week. Week Three's teams were Jets at San Diego, and both won the next week. Week Four had Ravens at Pittsburgh, and they were 1-1 in Week Five).

Off last week with a bye are Cleveland (1-3), New York Jets (2-2), St. Louis (0-4), and Oakland (1-3).

Off this week with a bye are: Buffalo (4-1); Kansas City (1-4); Pittsburgh (4-1); and Tennessee (5-0).

This week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Chicago ((3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) - Tough call here. Falcons did a good job at Lambeau last week, while the Bears romped in Detroit. Rookie RB Matt Forte has been stolid for the Bears, grinding out 383 yards at a 3.6 per carry rate. But RB Michael Turner has been fantastic for the Falcons, gaining 543 yards at a 5.3 rate. But Chicago's D has been very good. Both teams are 3-2, but Atlanta has played two weak teams in Detroit and Kansas City, Chicago has only played Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears and Falcons have played three common opponents this year: Detroit, Tampa, and Carolina. Falcons got whipped 24-9 at Carolina, Bears lost 20-17 there. Tampa Bay beat the Falcons 24-9, while Chicago lost to the Bucs 27-24 in OT. Both teams beat the Lions (but you knew that). Anyway, I'll take the Bears here. George likes Atlanta.

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) - Dolphins are a real surprise this year, after a 1-15 record in 2007. So far they have beaten both AFC Championship teams from 07, the Patriots and the Chargers. Their red zone defense was the worst in the league last year, but this year it's one of the best. Miami beat the Chargers 17-10 last week, but it really wasn't that close. Houston had the Colts on the ropes last week, up 27-10 with just four minutes to go, but three turnovers (two by backup QB Sage Rosenfels) led to 21 late points by the Colts. I'm hoping the Texans play a full four quarters this week, and win a home game for the Houston folks. George likes the Dolphins.

Baltimore (2-2) at Ineepoplis (2-2) - Colts only managed 79 yards on the ground last week at Houston, while the Texans ran for 156. Colts still haven't won a game at their new, and quaintly named Lucas Oil Stadium, charmingly referred to as the Lube by the local rubes. Colts still have some injury problems, with DE Dwight Freeney experiencing a strained leg; WR Anthony Gonzales suffered a concussion last week, although apparently not a sever one, and looks like he'll play; and CB Kelvin Hayden hurting his knee last week - looks like he's out. I'm taking the Ravens here - Colts D is awful, Ravens D is leading the AFC. George likes the Colts.

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) - Division game. Vikings starting LB E.J. Henderson was placed on IR after surgery on his toes. Vikings pulled out a 30-27 win in New Orleans last Monday night, despite the Saints pretty much shutting down the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (32 yards on 21 carries) but Gus Frerotte had a good game for the Vikes (19-36-0-222 and 33 yard TD to Bernard Berrian). Saints got a lot of help from their special teams, with kick returns of 56, 32 and 41 yards, plus two punt returns for TD's, but the Vikes still won. That was a tough game for the Vikings on the road, and now they get one of the worst teams in the league at home. George likes the Vikings also.

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) - Raiders are off a bye, which is good, since they introduce their new head coach, Tom Cable, their 4th head coach in the last 6 years, as Mad Al Davis continues his mad ways. New Orleans has lost starting CB Tracey Porter for the season with a wrist injury, but the Saints did a good job of shutting down the Vikings run game last week, and now they face another running team. Saints would have beaten the Vikings last week if not for a 59 yard return by the Vikings on a blocked field goal. George likes the Raiders.

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2) - Jets are off a bye. Two weeks ago, Brett Favre passed for 6 touchdowns, leading the Jets to a 56-35 win over the Cardinals. The six TD passes were both a personal record for Favre, and a team record for the Jets. Jets haven't gotten their run game going, but what better time than against the Bengals? They're giving up over 170 ground yards per game. Favre has had another two weeks to learn the Jets offense. George likes the Bengals.

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) - Division game. Bucs had a tough game last week at Mile High, while Carolina toyed with the Chiefs. These two teams were 1-1 last year. Bucs were 9-7 and the Panthers were 7-9. Panthers have improved more since 2007. George likes the Panthers too.

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) - Rams are off a bye, but they've have been terrible all year. New head coach Jim Haslett will put a little fire into them, but it won't help. Redskins have been eating lots of red meat. Clinton Portis was a monster in last week's game at Philly - 29 carries, 145 yards -- against a Philly D that had allowed just 54 yards rushing per game in the first month of the season, and QB Jason Campbell is playing a good game - 6 TD's, 0 INT's on the year. George likes the Rams.

the 2:05 MDT game:

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) - Broncos won a close game at Mile High last week, beating the Bucs 16-13. Jags lost at home to the Steelers 26-21 , a game almost everyone thought the Jags would win. But Ben Roesthlisberger played great, and brought the Steelers from behind to win late. Broncos had some injuries last week - WR Eddie Royal has a bruised bone in his ankle, but should play. TE Tony Scheffler and RB Selvin Young will not play - both have strained groin muscles. Jags haven't recovered from the loss of their center and both starting guards and have been giving up some yards through the air, and here comes Jay Cutler and his receivers. Take Denver at Mile High. George likes Denver also.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) - You just gotta wonder about Terrell Owens. After complaining about only 19 touches in week four, he had a 57 yard catch for a TD last week vs. the Bengals. He was seen to be crying on the sidelines after the catch. After the game, he said that God had used him for his glory. What a guy. Cowboys CB Terence Newman will miss Sunday's game against the Cardinals with an abdominal irritation, and his backup, Adam Pacman Jones, got into a fight the other night and may be suspended, but probably not for this game anyway. Both of these teams are high scoring, and their D's are about equal. With the Cowboys missing Newman, I like the Cardinals at home. Boys barely beat the Bengals in Dallas last week, while Arizona trounced the Bills. George likes the Cardinals also.

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) - Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs For the second week in a row, the Forty Niners get to host a team from the east coast (and you know that visiting teams from the opposite coast are just 2-9). It didn't help the Niners last week, as they lost to the Patriots 30-21, and I don't think it will help this week. I'm taking the Eagles, even though Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs. George also likes the Eagles.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) - Packers have lost CB Harris and DE Jenkins for the season. Despite a sprained shoulder, Packers QB Aaron Rogers threw for 313 yards last week in a losing effort at Lambeau to the Falcons. Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren once again goes against his old team. Packers D is hurting, while the Hawks D just hasn't been playing well. Seahawks got trounced last week by the New York Giants but they are a lot better at home than on the east coast. Hasselbeck has had another week to work with his receivers, and I'm picking Seattle. Packers have had too many injuries. George likes Seattle.

the 6:15 MDT SNF game:

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) - Chargers lost OLB Shawn Merriman for the year after one game, and now his replacement, Jyles Tucker, is out for 1-2 weeks. Patriots played last week at San Francisco, so they stayed on the west coast, practicing at San Jose State in Santa Clara. Patriots won at San Francisco by 9 last week, while the Chargers lost by 7 at Miami. Chargers have had some injuries (LaDainian Tomlinson is limping, and Antonio Gates has some issues), and we've already mentioned Jyles Tucker, but those pale in comparison to the Patriots losing Tom Brady. A couple weeks ago, the Cardinals stayed on the east coast for a week between games at Washington and the New York Jets, and the result was pretty bad as the Cards lost by 21. Chargers lost by 21-12 last year at New England in the AFC Championship game, and want a little payback. If LT can't go, Darren Sproles is proving to be a good replacement. Taking the Chargers. George likes the Patriots.

the MNF game at 6:30 MDT:

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) - Browns are off a bye and the four teams the Giants have beaten have a combined record of just 5-13, while the four teams the Browns have played have a combined record of 10-9. And the Browns are all rested up after a bye, and are at home. So take the Browns? Naah, didn't think so. Take the Giants on the road. George likes the Browns.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

2 recs | Comment 23 comments

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I just want you to know that you have swayed me to switch two of my picks.

I am taking Baltimore and I am taking Philly….

To me, that is the greatest compliment I could give you so far this season. Few people in this world could change my mind on a pick I had already made. I have 20+ years of experience with picking winners, but so far you have proven to be a worthwhile opinion in picking winners. Enough so that I have changed two of my picks based solely on your post here.

Good luck this week! Oh and BAL and PHI had better win!!!! heheheh :P

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 9, 2008 4:54 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He only got me to change one

Arizona over Dallas. I was on the fence until I read bradley’s analysis. That sold me.

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Oct 9, 2008 5:17 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good stuff Brad

you should get an honorary spot on the MHR picks list, but then you’d make us all look bad so….

I capped SF over Philly, and by a significant margin, but I too went with some of the abstracts and picked Philly in that game. Also, I capped ARI well ahead of DAL, but I think the homefield advantage of ARI right now is an illusion… I picked DAL on the grounds that ARI needs to do a little of the ol “show me” before I go picking them. They really should win this game. There offense is scoring like mad right now.

Indy is a tough pick. The injuries don’t explain their whole situation. This is like the opposite of ARI. Indy has given plenty of “show me” int he past, and they are burning people (in their picks) because of it…. but I agree with you, this isn’t the week that they turn it around. Should be a neat game though.

Two other situations that might bear tracking are teams playing in their second or third road game in a row. A couple of upsets have come in those situations.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Oct 9, 2008 5:31 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The only way I change a pick...

is a major injury announcement. However, I try to get my picks in on Tue or Wed and stick with ‘em. So far I haven’t made any changes. It is to be hoped that Zappa changes his picks to teams that fare poorly, which may shake his confidence a bit.

: )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Oct 10, 2008 3:45 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am in agreement

and the injury has to be major indeed, a QB or a center. Most other positions and players can be covered for, even really good players, if it is only for a game or two. I have yet to change a pick after wed. but I certainly wouldn’t care if others do. Usually it amounts to second guessing yourself.

And yes, we can all hope that second guessing himself shatters Zappa’s confidence more than that chick that one time, remember, the one that was actually a GUY? :)

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Oct 10, 2008 4:01 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Come on...that was way below the belt. I've never dated a dude before...ever.

I live in California, but I’ve always been very careful in that respect. Too many Dudes lookin like a laaady. lol Anyways, I kept my picks with MHR. I didn’t change them…I got all my picks in before anything was posted publically. lol ;-)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 4:59 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

too funny

forgotten the bfsisd incident already have we? and i believe in that same thread you mentioned having ‘mistook’ someone before….

what is even funnier is after all that i just sent an email to guru to see if we are still doing the pick change, since hasselbeck is out for seattle. time for me to jump ship and go with gb. i wasn’t really into seattle anyways… ;)

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Oct 10, 2008 5:24 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I never mistook...man that was blown out of proportion!

Someone else thought bfsisd was a chick and I said no he wasn’t. I swear! Let’s not post that again, k? lol

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 6:26 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We won't even bring up the idea you had for the bikini posts!

lol

: )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Oct 12, 2008 5:32 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Everyone's pickin' on me...suppose I deserve it for all the smack talk I deserve.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 5:00 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Now you're making me nervous

Thanks for the kudos, but all of the games mentioned above are close calls. That’s what makes the NFL so much fun. Of the games mentioned, I’m most confident that the Ravens will win in Indy. Colts haven’t shown any sync, and the Ravens D is really good – Ray Lewis seems to have found the fountain.
If I was a Dallas fan, I’d be worried about the wheels coming off, and Kurt Warner is probably the hottest QB in the league. Forget about the debacle in New York a couple weeks ago.
Eagles are a better team than the Niners, but the coast to coast thing – I’m really surprised at the 9-2 differential. I figured it was a difference maker, but… I want to check out the difference between east to west and west to east. I’ll let you know.

See everything. Overlook a great deal. Improve a little. Pope John XXIII.

by bradley on Oct 9, 2008 6:45 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Isn't

West to east the worse jet-lag? Definiteley could be a contributing factor…

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Oct 10, 2008 8:09 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You are correct...unless you live in Denver, then jet lag isn't as much of a factor!

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 10:38 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

West to East the worst?

So far it looks like it. Home teams facing an opponent from the opposite coast are 9-2. Both of the wins by the visitors are by teams going east to west (Panthers won in San Diego, and the Patriots won in San Francisco. Of the nine games, six of the losers had to go from west to east (Seahawks at Buffalo; Raiders at Buffalo; Cards at Washington; Cards at Jets; Chargers at Miami; and Seahawks at Giants.) The three east to west games were Jets at San Diego; Dolphins at Arizona; and Bills at Arizona.

See everything. Overlook a great deal. Improve a little. Pope John XXIII.

by bradley on Oct 10, 2008 11:21 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Looks like teams are totally screwed going East and about 50/50 going West.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 11:31 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A coupla things

All of those games would have been hard to pick if played on a neutral field. Reverse the home/away thing, and the results might have been totally the opposite. I mean, none of the games had the Lions at the Giants, for example.
Also, it’s just something the western teams will have to accept. But I do think the league should try to prevent what’s happened twice this year – a coastal team playing two games in a row on the opposite coast (Cardinals had to do it; Patriots are doing it now and will have to do it again in December (at Seattle and Oakland). Broncos will get a bit of a taste of it in November (at Cleveland, then at Atlanta) but at least the Cleveland game is on Thursday night.

See everything. Overlook a great deal. Improve a little. Pope John XXIII.

by bradley on Oct 10, 2008 11:48 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Naw...I will not advocate the league taking any action. ;-)

Why do I care if the West Coast teams fail? lol heheheh

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 12:07 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We just gave the Charger fans more to whine about and blame for their teams utter failure.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 12:07 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess...

…I was including Denver as a western team. But it may be more of a time zone factor than miles flown. Either way, Denver is in better shape than Oakland or San Diego.
It just struck me too – how many NFL teams fly by a chartered plane these days? As opposed to a commercial flight?

See everything. Overlook a great deal. Improve a little. Pope John XXIII.

by bradley on Oct 10, 2008 12:20 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think most teams have a chartered plane now....

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 1:46 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am taking

NE over SD. The east coast west coast thing and vise versa is overrated, but it generally is only compared when teams play the East coast game at 1pm EST. NE is playing on SNF and are a better team right now, SD is in disaray. Plus these losers here are like Cub fan, need something to go wrong with their team so they have a reason to live.

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 10, 2008 12:29 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hahahahahahaha Classic!

The Chargers have an innate ability to rise to the occasion when their backs are too the wall. I will root against them though.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Oct 10, 2008 1:47 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agree on all except

I picked NE over SD, and GB over SEA.

Broncos Avenged

by Best In The West on Oct 11, 2008 12:58 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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