Upset Picks of Week 11

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 12:22 PM MST Comment 28 comments

I was too busy to post last week, but here are my upset picks for Week 11. I did quite poorly in Week 9 the last time I did the upset picks, but hopefully I can get back on the right track this week!

Last Week: 1-3
Overall Record: 12-11

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website. If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 40% and up would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Jacksonville over Tennessee

This is my big upset of the week pick. I had Chicago last week and they almost pulled out the upset against Tennessee and I think this week their winning streak ends. Jacksonville has many issues, but this is the biggest game of the year for them and I look for Del Rio to come out swinging hard. Jaguars by 4.

Denver over Atlanta

Denver is a major underdog in this game, at least by Yahoo standards. After my initial doom and gloom pessimism early in the week, I have come to the conclusion that the Broncos are going to come out and pimp slap the Falcons. Besides, Denver seems to play very well when they are not expected to win. Broncos by 47, err, I mean 14!

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Kansas City over New Orleans
Cleveland over Buffalo
San Diego over Pittsburgh

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

I have no medium risk picks this week, as I picked mostly favorites.

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Minnesota over Tampa Bay
New York Jets over New England
Chicago over Green Bay

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Dallas over Washington

I initially was with the Yahoo majority on this pick...until Bradley informed me of a possible injury to Clinton Portis. Portis is definitely the engine that moves the Washington Redskins. With Romo coming back and the Cowboys no longer an ego-stroked favorite in every game they play, this has the making of a blowout. Cowboys by 10.

I feel real good about my chances this week and my fortune this week will ride high on the outcome of the first two games. A win from the Broncos and Jaguars would go far in helping me catch TheSportsGuru's wife this week!! At least I think so, unless she is thinking the same things as me....

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

lol,

hope you guys turned in your pix before you posted this!!! ;)

by tunga77 on Nov 14, 2008 12:45 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Guru is the all knowing one...the deadline is today, but I am positive none of the other guys cares what I am picking. lol

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 12:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

fwiw

Tunga, I can’t speak for everyone else, but I don’t look at anyone else’s picks.

Also, as a disclaimer, I have picked ATL this game. I hope I get it wrong, and I’ll be pulling for Denver as hard as ever. I’m also not very confident in picking ATL (as I would probably be in picking, say, CAR). But there it is.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 14, 2008 2:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ah, you're a true gentleman

But we’ll have to lynch you for picking against our team… SWARM SWARM SWARM!!!

Speaking of lynch, you guys see he is retiring on Mon as both a Bronco and Buc.

by tunga77 on Nov 14, 2008 2:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, nothing like Lynch mob justice. :)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 2:50 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

How easy would the CAR pick be for you if Denver wins every game from now until that game? ;-)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 2:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I would still have to look at consistency.

For me, the consistency of a team is important. For example, when Denver is hot, we are very good. When we suck, even KC can beat us. ATL beats bad teams, and loses to good teams.

Do I think Denver is a better team, with higher potential? Absolutely. But we don’t “bring it” every week. It goes back to one of my favorite coaching slogans, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard”.

The CAR game (to me) is the toughest game left on the sched.

On the other hand, the pick is still hard for me to make for the ATL game. A lot of factors work for us (including the extra few days to rest). I’m picking ATL by a very, very tiny margin. I wouldn’t be at all surprised. The game isn’t a lock for ATL (despite some dumb odds out in Vegas). If Denver wins, I think it will be a blow out. I’m only guessing that ATL will play cautious on defense, and control the clock on the ground with the running game (for which the LT isn’t so crucial).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 14, 2008 5:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You know, Atlanta plays Carolina next week.....big game for them...bigger than this weeks game.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 5:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, then maybe this will be Atlanta's trap game......

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 5

by weazel on Nov 14, 2008 6:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

:D yesssss!

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 7:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like it worked, even though I don't think they overlooked us.

Does sound nice though.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 6

by weazel on Nov 17, 2008 1:33 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

HT....

do you mind if I steal that quopte for some of my athletes…..thats excellent!!!
I wnat to expand on that point. There is another saying that a “Team of champions will never beat a champion team”….the biggest example of this…last years super bowl.
With our backs against the wall, and with a mostly young cast, I have a feeling that before our eyes, this young Broncos team is changing into a champion team…maybe not this year (but trust me, if they get on a roll they will be dangerous) but the next 2-6 years could spell dominance.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Nov 15, 2008 6:33 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Denver...

Could do well… I’m hoping Tatum has something to prove…

by Jezru on Nov 14, 2008 12:56 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Denver and the Ravens

are my upset picks.

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Nov 14, 2008 1:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I've decided that my fortunes will rise and fall with the Broncos....

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 1:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

good man

I have a bet with a friend on the games this week, so the deciding game is the Broncos. So lets hope they win, cuz if they win I win!

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Nov 14, 2008 2:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

oh btw

I’ve got the Jets, Denv, KC, Jax, and Dallas as my upsets this week… going kinda hog wild… we’ll see what happens!

by tunga77 on Nov 14, 2008 2:20 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

at least you didn't pick the Norvers...I mean the Chargers....

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 2:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

KC is a great pick

I was very close to taking KC over NO in the staff picks, but I am too far behind for those kind sof risk.

If you don’t mind, i will live vicariously through you!!

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Nov 14, 2008 5:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ditto...except on the "too far behind" part. heheheheh :P

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 7:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Not at all, kind sir.

I love picking upsets… I feel like that’s the fun of pickem leagues… and that’s why I love Zappa’s (almost) weekly posts. But we’ll see what happens… last time I went crazy with a large amount of upsets, I got burned. =/

by tunga77 on Nov 15, 2008 3:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Zappa--I like reading your, 'upset picks' post.............may you pick them all right!

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Nov 14, 2008 7:39 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'll be satisfied if only ONE of them wins. :)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2008 8:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I love the Jax pick over Tenn. the streak ends! I don't know why I love that but I do!

by Steve O' on Nov 14, 2008 9:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It is interesting to see some picking the Jets over NE since

the game was yesterday and the posts were today. ;)

I like the Broncos (for obvious reasons) along with KC because they have played better lately and it is at home.

I think JAX will give TEN a good run yet will just come up short.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 5

by weazel on Nov 14, 2008 11:01 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm in a pickem league

So I had to turn in my picks by Thursday evening 7:00 PM. =P

by tunga77 on Nov 15, 2008 3:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Clinton Portis

Hey Zappa – everything I read about Portis indicated there was no way he’d play – maybe it was misinformation. He played and did very well, but we got lucky anyway when Dallas won.

He had read the inscription on the gates of Busyrane–‘Be bold’; and on the second gate–‘Be bold, be bold, and evermore be bold’; and then again had paused well at the third gate–‘but not too bold.’" RW Emerson

by bradley on Nov 17, 2008 8:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

yea...I was asleep.

I was up all Saturday night at my brothers house playing Call to Duty 3 online…game is wicked sweet. lol So I ended up going to sleep at 5pm pst last night.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Tim Lynch on Nov 17, 2008 11:51 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs