I should add a section on underclassmen, regarding how they can shape a draft. Not only can a group of underclassmen declaring transform a weak crop at a particular position into a strong one, the scouting reports on them lag behind and aren’t up to date until shortly before the draft. For example, last year’s RBs were weak until the juniors declared and transformed it into a moderately strong group. Rankings at this point are somewhat fluid, partlly because this year’s performance is changing people’s evaluations of players but also because we don’t know which players will be in the crop.

Spikes is viewed as a late 1st rounder in 2010 (according to one source) but he’s probably going to be the 3rd best ILB if he declares this year, and is considered 1st round material. My feeling is that he would be a very good pick for us if we’re drafting at around #20. He’s billed as being as being equally good at run defense and pass defense (which I like), and he’s got great production against great competition and very good physical metrics. What’s not to like?

But if you’re evaluation is correct, TB, he won’t be around till then, which gives us a chance at someone else. I like where we are in this draft. The middle to late 1st round looks better to me than the early round — amazingly. I’d really like to see them pick up a late 1st rounder or 2nd rounder, even if it means trading down from our position in the 1st round. In any case, we won’t have to worry if we miss out of Laurinaitis and Maualuga and land Spikes. In fact, I did my homework on Spikes after seeing a mock with exactly that scenario.

There’s a delicate balance between critiquing the current team’s performance and giving up on this season. I’m not giving up on this team, but I also looked at this season as a stepping stone to something much, much better. Dwelling on ways of fixing their problems is my way of coping with a problem I can’t personally fix, but at least I can think of a way of fixing it. I’d rather think of solutions than stew about their performance.

His stock has been rising lately, but I admit that I don’t get the chance to look at many players so that’s according to other — reasonably good — sources.

He’s one DT that fits into the NT mold, and I’ve speculated lately on whether the Broncos would want to move in the direction of using a NT, which might involve more 3-4 looks but wouldn’t necessarily involve a whole scale scheme change (we’ll have to ask the ‘X & Os" guys). A player like Terrence Cody, 6’5 – 370lbs., could certainly clog up the middle, even though he’s green at this point.

Cody scouting report

Raji is a more finished product, though. But to put this in perspective, Raji is the top senior DT right now and he’s rated as a high 2nd round choice. In other words, there isn’t a single senior DT prospect who merits going in the 1st round. Declaring underclassmen could change that picture but they would be green. Almost anyone we could draft at DT is going be a developmental project, to some degree. We still need to draft some, despite that.

I’ve been contemplating how they could pull off a nice combo coup — a stellar ILB & S tandem in the draft. It would probably involve missing out on Maualuga and Laurinaitis though. A low 1st rounder and high 2nd rounder could yield a Rolle and Spikes combo. Here’s the FFToolbox’s big board

They have Rolle at #22 and Spikes at #39. We could actually trade even up (with some extra ’juice’) with someone to move down in the 1st (swap #1s) and up in the 2nd (swap #2s) and pull it off.

Here’s a resource that everyone should familiarize themselves with, the TRADE VALUE CHART.

But we still need a safety. Lowry looks like a fish out of water out there, flopping around.

I don’t think we need to get locked into one path. Mau & Lau are good picks but there are some other players we’d be justified in drafting. The ‘fat’ section of this draft looks like the late 1st through the 2nd – 3rd, i.e., where players at positions of need come at a high frequency. I’d be happy to see us pick any of a great number of players in the fat range.

And, of course, I haven’t even mentioned offense. My philosophy is the “shopping cart,” where you pick up players at a number of positions. You may flood a position but only if you do your homework, and even then it’s a very judicious flooding. I’d be happy with 2 high character DTs. Even with our 2 extra picks we’ll have more positions of need than draft picks.

I worry about what happens AFTER the first two rounds. BTW — here’s some more names to think about from FFT’s BIG BOARD

(in no particular order) -————- ranking – (#)

OLB — Weatherspoon, Sean (Missouri) – #84

             Freeman, Marcus (Ohio State) -—— #70

ILB — Brinkley, Jasper (South Carolina) — #65

            Ellerbe, Dannell (Georgia) -———- #71

S -— Hamlin, Michael (Clemson) -———- #98

RB (one cut) – Jennings, Rashad (Liberty) – #96

There’s some speed WRs I’m thinking of posting but I’ll do it later. My point is simply that there are a lot of good player — some of whom we’ll be drafting — and we need to start looking past the 1st round, to where there’s a lot of rough gems like those we found this year.

Yes, we spend 90% of the time over-analyzing 10% of the choices. I’m now a convert, too, after seeing the Broncos outdraft every other team on the 2nd day of the last draft. It may be part luck but the successful organizations always do their homework.

CORRECTION: I think I referred to the “shopping cart” drafting strategy, it’s actually called the COMBINATION strategy. There’s more here and in this. It’s definitely worth a read.

I see a continuing need even if we do like Larsen’s performance. Both Webster (a FA) and Koutouvides (a disappointment) may not be around much longer. Koutouvides has guaranteed money for this year, but I don’t know if they’ll have to pay him if they decide to go another route (it’s a good question, anyone know?). Whatever the case, they’re going to be adding LBs. Faith in Larsen may affect the draft strategy but they won’t pass on Mau or Lau if they’re available, and would you? Fortunately, draft decisions are made through a ‘cold’ cognitive process rather than through the ‘hot’ cognitive process that occurs immediately after a game.

It all seems moot, however, both will probably be gone. To be redundant, I think Safety is the best bet for who we’ll take. It’s such a good crop, we can hardly lose, but draft position is the primary contingency. I think they’ll be projecting other teams’ needs (which they do quite well) and move to optimize their ability to draft the BPA AND address their needs, they can do both.

Since the quota has been increased to two QBs on the PS there seems to be little risk of losing a rookie QB to another team. Green Bay did quite well at drafting and developing QBs that were traded for higher draft choices after 2-3 years of riding the pine. Definitely a good investment.

I wondered about the QB situation, too. Ramsey is probably not going to be back, something tells me. They’re not forced to do anything because of Hackney’s presence but I expect they’re thinking about it very intently. I would like to see them pick up a veteran, but that’s just my preference

Our #1 should instead be Kam Chancellor! That is the mos awesome name I’ve ever heard. I don’t know anything about him, I just think his name is unbelievably awesome. If he can play FS, and Chung would be the best-named safety tandem in the NFL.

I see it as an elevation from passively sitting and watching to actively thinking about how to fix the problems. I haven’t become less of a supporter because I look at the draft, I’ve taken fandom to a whole new level.

For your enjoyment, read this — Draftniks: The Rise of the Mini-Kipers.

I started out just compiling and stockpiling data. I learned very quickly that overload is a very real and very dangerous problem. We end up taking subconscious shortcuts, without realizing we have done it, and the result is shortsighted, biased or inconsistent evaluation.

In the end I love the Broncos, little else, and I am only interested in what we eventually do. My goals regarding the draft have gone from comprehensive knowledge (of 3000+ players? Never going to happen.) to specific and delimited knowledge, with the further goal of creating character pieces based on one of my favorite human traits: potential.

I still maintain my databases, I still scout eons of tape, but my focus is clearly defined now and I couldn’t be a happier draftnik. I think it is a transformation that all draft nuts go through, where they question their values, and end up spending a little time scouting themselves! It pays off.

It’s pretty scary spending a high pick on someone who’s only played at the major college level for a year. More than that, Cody’s fitness level can’t be on the level of some of the other DT prospects, and some of them are pretty big, too. I think we can pick a DL in the 1st round but I’d prefer one of the others. I’m for picking Cody, but I’d wait, and I realize he might not be there later.

I see the Scott Wright has his updated MOCK up. He’s got us selecting William Moore (S) at #15 — I like that. He has Sen’Derrick Marks (DT) going at #17 and Peria Jerry (DT) at #26. I think that our ranking of the DT position is similar to his.

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

Your right about the DT crop, Broncoman, there isn’t anyone who’s a true 1st rounder. The reason they go as high as they do is because everyone wants a star DT, so their value is inflated. DTs need to mature but that’s not happening because they can come out early. Cody is so green that we’d be paying him 1st round money to play part time for a few years.

Your also right about choosing the others instead, and that’s because they’d be far more ready to play early in their careers. We might get lucky with Cody but there’s been far higher ranked DTs in recent years who suffered through growing pains and we should learn from their example. Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of waiting. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t draft a DT, but it should be done a little later given the shape of this crop.

BTW — I think you could add Curry to the list. There’s a chance he’ll be available at our pick and many people think he’s as good as Mau and Lau.

I don’t feel good about any of the DTs, but I could be wrong. I’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that whoever they pick is going to have to possess one outstanding attribute. Hardly any of them look on paper like what I would expect for a top flight DT. The ones that do haven’t shown much yet. That’s partly because they’re underclassmen at some ‘factory’ schools. Lots of potential but a long wait before they can see the field.

As far as Marks goes — he could be a target for the Broncos but he looks like he’ll go somewhat later than they pick in the 1st. He’ll probably be gone in the 2nd. Honestly, I still don’t have a good read on this DT crop.

Here’s a good resource, take a look. Just look for DTs somewhere around where Denver will be drafting in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. You can read the scouting reports and decide whether they sound like there the right material for us.