Can SD catch Denver? Breaking down the possibility

First, before I get started, can we PLEASE do something about the new horizontal pop-up ads on  I honestly spend less time on this site because I hate navigating on it.


6 Games to go.

Last week I talked about gimme games, coin flip games, and games that we should consider a loss.  Here's my posted thought:

7 wins is safe. Denver should beat Oakland and KC at home

6 losses is also safe. Denver should lose to Carolina and San Diego on the road

There are 3 games that are coin flips (IMO):


Denver MUST get at LEAST 2 of those 3 “coin flip” games.

 Okay, 8 wins is safe now that Denver knocked off ATL.

vs. BUF and @ NYJ are still coin flips.  Denver must beat OAK and KC at home. @CAR is a loss.  SD is still a loss but quickly turning into a coin flip game.  Only time will tell.

So, I still think 9 wins gets the division, especially if Indy can beat SD this weekend. BUT there is still a chance SD could pull a Michael Myers and still scare the hell out of us after dying 3 times.

If Denver gets to 10 wins, there is zero chance SD wins the AFC West.

If Denver gets to 9 wins, there is a slight chance that SD wins the West, but San Diego would have to beat Denver in San DIego to even get the tie in the West.

The other tiebreakers are:

1. Head to Head games: Denver 1-0 has the edge, but SD hosts Denver in week 17. Let's assume SD wins.  On to the next tiebreaker.

2. Division record (Winning %): 2-1 (66%) for both teams.  SD would win this tiebreaker unless they lose @ KC or against Oakland.  This is my biggest fear.  SD could very well lose @ KC, but come on, that SHOULDN'T happen.

3.Best winning % in common games: (KC X2, OAK X2, NE, MIA, BUF, NYJ, TB, NO, CAR, ATL). 

So, 12 games out of 16 are common. Best out of 12 wins.

Denver has 4 wins so far, SD has 4 also.  

@ KC -- L
KC W --
OAK -- --
BUF L --
NYJ W --
TB -- W
ATL -- W
CAR L --
TOTAL 12 12
WINS 4 4
Remaining 4 5
Wins PCG 0.500 0.571

So, all this said, if Denver can get past Oakland and KC at home, which is very reasonable, they'll have 6 wins.  Its also reasonable to say that SD gets past Oakland and KC with 6 wins. Denver needs to get 2 wins versuse NYJ, BUF, and CAR, as the chances SD beats TB and ATL are quite slim.  If, somehow, both teams finish with 7 or 8 wins in common games, there are other tiebreakers.

4. Best win percentage versus the AFC: Denver is 3-4 with 5 games left versus AFC opponents.  San Diego is 4-4 versus the AFC with 4 games left.  Both teams have 12 games versus the AFC. Sd plays IND, DEN, and OAK at home and @ KC.  Denver plays OAK, KC, and BUF at home, and @NYJ and SD.  Again, there's a reasonable chance that these 2 teams will have the same AFC record.

5. Strength of vicory: So, this is a tough one to figure out.  You take the teams they've beat and see what the winning percentage is of the temas that Denver and SD were victorious over.  RIght now, the teams that Denver's beaten have a winning percentage of .466.  San Diego's have a recond of .400.  This one would likely deternmine the winner of the West.


All of this said though, and SD must win out or go 5-1.  Denver would have to lose out or go 3-3 the rest of the way.

It's not over.  Its not even over if Denver wins this week and SD loses.

Don't get ahead of yourselves.  Denver could beat the Titans by 10 or lose to the Chiefs by 14 on any given day.  Its already happened once.

The only four things Denver does consistently is plays our corners too far off of our opponent's WRs, gives up 1st down plays on 3rd and long, gets RBs hurt, and comes back in the 4th quarter.

I have aged 13 years this season.


This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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