Upset Picks of Week 12

I had a good week last week and I only wish I had taken Tennessee.  I should have known better, but I won't be making that mistake again!!

Last Week: 2-1
Overall Record: 14-12

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website.  If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 40% and up would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Kansas City over Buffalo

I have picked Buffalo three straight weeks and I am tired of being screwed over.  They almost screwed me out of my weekly pick'em league, but luckily I won the tie breaker and got myself 50 bucks.  Of course, I wait to pick against them when they are heavily favored...but I like the heart that Kansas City has been playing with and they are playing at Arrowhead so let's give this game to the Chefs by 3.

Arizona over New York Giants

This pick makes me nervous, but I felt the need to follow up my power rankings with a faith pick in Arizona.  They are at home and they have got to be anxious to prove they are elite and what better way to do it than in front of the home crown against the defending Super Bowl champs?  Don't get me wrong, the Giants are the best team in the league and I am not even sure I would knock them down below the Cardinals in my power rankings if they lost this weekend.  I think Arizona pulls out the upset late in this one.

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

San Diego over Indianapolis
Houston over Cleveland

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

Miami over New England

I originally had New England in this game, but then I switched to Miami...now I am back on New England at the time of this post.  So this is not an upset pick any longer.  Sorry all.  lol  This is my schizophrenic pick of the week.  New England by 7.

Minnesota over Jacksonville

I just don't understand why 66% of Yahoo! pickers got Jacksonville to win this game.  The choked against Tennessee and the only game they have played well in recent weeks was against Detroit.  Okay, I guess they deserve to beat a team with a better record.  I have a feeling that Minnesota will run all over that paper tiger of a defense they got in Jacksonville, plus it looks like the players are not buying into Del Rio's system anymore.  I got the Vikings winning big in this one.

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

New York Jets over Tennessee

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Baltimore over Philadelphia

This game is a toss up.  It's about 50-50 on Yahoo, so this is a low risk game but nonetheless needed if I am going to win any cash this week.  Philadelphia tied Cincinnati last week and may come out pissed off, but I have to go with the more reliable home team this week.  Baltimore should win this one close.

Green Bay over New Orleans

Ironically, Green Bay is only slightly favored and thus will be a risky pick.  This is probably the least risky pick out of all three of these, but if Green Bay loses then it would no doubt give someone an edge over me and I can't allow that.  Green Bay is coming off of a huge win over a divisional rival, while New Orleans struggled against a 1-9 team.  I don't think this game will be a blow out, but I see the Packers winning by a touchdown.

Atlanta over Carolina

This is my pick of the week.  Atlanta is a slight underdog and everyone is high up on the Panthers which I think are a very overrated team.  NFC South teams have only lost two home games all season long and Atlanta will come up big after suffering a loss to the Broncos last week.  Though I think both teams will fade late in the season to miss the playoffs, I think Carolina begins to fade first. Falcons by 3.

There you have it.  This week has the making of a wild one.  11-12 wins will probably win most pick'em leagues.  I got my fingers crossed for I need another huge week to get back into the mix here.