Which Teams a Broncos Fan Should Cheer For (week twelve)

by Steve Nichols on Nov 23, 2008 6:38 AM MST in 2008 Game Previews Comment 11 comments

So you're sitting there wondering which game to watch, and Denver isn't available. Which team do you cheer for if you want the outcome to help Denver? No problem; MileHighReport.com has you covered.

Remember, this has nothing to do with which teams we like or hate. It is purely based on what outcomes best position Denver for the playoffs, and a good seeding once there.

We're also rating the games on how important they are for Denver fans. For instance, a Denver game, or a game that features a Denver division rival, gets near a 5, while a less important game gets a 1. So given a choice of several games, you now know which one is more important to watch! (Teams for Denver fans to cheer for are in CAPS).

Let's feed the schedule into MHR's Super Computer and see what results we get...

Some very major changes go into the calculation settings for this week.

It is assumed that Denver must win the division. If SD takes the division, a wildcard is very unlikely.
It is also assumed that, given the tight grouping below the Titans and the difficulty of schedules for the seed teams we are competing against, that the next highest priority to winning the division is winning a seeding between 4 and 2.
Given the above parameters, many games at this late point in the season lose any significance, and are thus not listed.

Teams to root for are in caps. Critical games are boldened.

PHI at bal - Take the NFC over the AFC

nyj at TENN (4.8) - We are competing with the Jets for seeding. TENN is first seed, and out of range

MINN at jax (2) - Take the NFC over the AFC

BUF at kc (4) - Root against AFC West teams

ne at mia (-0-) - Same record; both could be competing for a seed against us. mia leads ne by a fraction in tiebreaker, but it doesn't affect us. Root for the team you think is the weaker of the two

oak at DEN (5+) - Always take Denver

IND at sd (4.9) - If we don't win the division, a wildcard slot is very unlikely

Root against the following teams for seed help:

Pitt
Any team in the AFC East that either has more wins, or a similar record to Denver
SD

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Comments

I know we are supposed to root against divsion teams but,

Touchdowns win championships?

by 53guys on Nov 23, 2008 6:47 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I hate saying this but, shouldn’t we root for KC against Buffalo since Buffalo could still win that division and KC is a doormat?

Touchdowns win championships?

by 53guys on Nov 23, 2008 6:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, this was my first thought as well.

by DjBroncos on Nov 23, 2008 7:21 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Not exactly.

Some team is going to have to win the AFC East, and you can’t root against all four. At present, Buf doesn’t lead the division.

One might root for KC, thinking that they are important for strength of sched, but we also play Buf this year, and KC’s value as a strength of sched team is shot.

Also, as weak as Buf seems to be playing, I waould rather have them take the AFC East, rather than the Pats or Phins, who have both beaten us already. And of course, the current AFC East leader is NYJs, so I would root against them by default (hoping for the best team in seed competitive divisions to lose).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 23, 2008 8:15 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll root for KC because I kind of feel sorry for them.

But in all reality, this game won’t really mean anything at all if we beat the Bills.

If Mike Shanahan were a hotdog, would you eat him? I know I would. Hell, I'd eat him twice.

by papigrande on Nov 23, 2008 8:03 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't we have to root for NYJ?

If MIA or NE wins the division, they will be seeded ahead of us based on the head-to-head tieabreaker. However, if the Jets win out, but we beat them, we will be seeded ahead of them because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. We need them to win the division, and all we wouldneed to do is beat them and have the same record or a better record. If MIA or NE wins, we would have to have at least a one game lead over tham when the season ends in order to be seeded higher.

If Mike Shanahan were a hotdog, would you eat him? I know I would. Hell, I'd eat him twice.

by papigrande on Nov 23, 2008 8:02 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

That's a reasonable argument.

One can also argue that we would rather win a higher seeding by ending up ahead of other teams, rather than hoping to be tied and winning a tie break. It’s a matter of opinion.

I give weight to winning outright. In other words, it is easier to just hope that all of our opponents lose, while we win. Then the issue of head to head doesn’t matter. At this point, I am hoping for losses for any team leading an opposing division (AFC East and North in particular), because I am also opertating under the assumption that Denver will be winning. If Denver doesn’t win, and SD catches up, the whole program is moot.

So by assuming Denver victories, I’m also orientating the calculations towards brute wins, rather than desired tie-breaks.

Your method is just as reasonable, just not the one I’ve chosen to follow.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 23, 2008 8:23 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Just to follow up a bit further...

papigrande is right. But for this week, a Tennessee loss/Broncos win won’t be enough to put us in the third seed. Miami and New England are playing, so whomever wins there would take over their division and remain the third seed, and the Broncos would still be fourth.

Playoff scenarios begin to get mighty complicated.

We’re not out of the AFC West woods yet, folks. We have a ZERO-game cushion. We slip by one game to the Chargers, and all of the sudden the winner of Week 17 wins the division.

-kmonty
-BroncoTalk.net

by kmonty on Nov 23, 2008 9:20 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Correct.

I’ve updated and corrected the statement regarding the move in seedings with the NYJs. Still, I prefer for our opponents (all of them) to lose outright, than to choose winners based on the hope that we face a favorable tie-break.

The loss against KC was a killer in terms of division record tie-break. On the other hand, the AFC East still has some intramural games left, so the picture should get clearer each week.

In terms of being our of the woods, the best that can be said is that we contral our own destiny (which is always most important), and our record looks better than many of our seeding opponents (and better than SD). If we can’t secure our division, we just don’t deserve a post season.

Great thoughts, and thanks for the correction!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 23, 2008 9:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs