Hello fellow MHRers and Happy Thanksgiving.

Benjamin Disraeli, a nineteenth century British politician and novelist, once proclaimed, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." (although the quote is frequently attributed to Samuel Clemens).  From Wikipedia, "The statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions."

With that in mind, I wanted to respond to an article written by Dave Krieger from Rocky Mountain News in which he suggests that the primary responsibility for the Broncos’ losses this year should be placed at the feet of Jay Cutler. Krieger writes,

"As Cutler goes, so goes his team. If you think turnovers are a good indicator of the Broncos' chances, you should check where they're coming from. Of the Broncos' 22 giveaways so far this year, 14 are Cutler's.

Or save time and just check his passer ratings:

In the Broncos' six wins: 137.5, 109.6, 93.3, 96.1, 107.9 and 106.4.

In the Broncos' five losses: 71.9, 77.8, 64.3, 60.7 and Sunday's 49.8, Cutler's worst game of the season."

Krieger concludes the article by stating,

"Whether Cutler cares to address the issue or not, the single biggest improvement the Broncos could make right now would be more professionalism, more maturity and more consistency from their quarterback."

The implication of the article is clear. When the Broncos lose it is the result of Cutler’s poor play and ‘immature’ decision making. But do the numbers really demonstrate what Krieger says they do?

According to NFL.com, a quarterback‘s rating (or ‘passer rating’) is calculated from a combination of: 1. Percentage of completions; 2. Average yards gained per attempt; 3. Percentage of touchdown passes; 4. Percentage of interceptions. However the site also explains,

"It is important to remember that the (quarterback rating) is used to rate passers, not quarterbacks. Statistics do not reflect leadership, play-calling, and other intangible factors that go into making a successful professional quarterback."

So what are some of those "intangible factors" that may absolve Cutler from bearing the primary burden for the Broncos losses this season?

The fact that Cutler’s QB rating is significantly lower in the losses than the wins is indisputable; however, whether it is from Jay’s poor play and immaturity is not as obvious. There are several factors that Dave seems to conveniently ignore that are contributing to Jay‘s lower QB rating that are outside of Jay‘s control. Many of which have been discussed at length here at MHR.

For example, Krieger is failing to take into account that having an inconsistent running attack and being forced to play from behind because of poor defensive play, among other things, is inevitably going to force any QB into situations where he is required to be reckless with the football. If he was not consistently in 3rd and long situation due to poor play calling or inadequate running on 1st and 2nd downs (or making up for dropped passes or blown routes) then he wouldn’t have to try to make those 10-15 yard passes in obvious passing situations that are prone to turnovers. For example, of Cutler’s 12 interceptions thrown this year, 9 of them came in games that the Broncos lost. Of those 9, 7 came on 3rd down. Of those 7 interceptions on 3rd down, the average yards to go was 10.14.

To make matters worse, the Broncos lead the league in dropped passes (as of the Atlanta game).

The rushing offense has also been significantly less effective in the games that the Broncos lost. They averaged 3.88 yards per carry in the losses versus 4.6 yards per carry in the games they won. Part of the problem is that they’ve had four injured RBs (five if you count Alrige) and are starting a FB at RB.

In addition, the play calling has been extremely unbalanced. In the five games that the Broncos have lost this season they have averaged 39 pass attempts per game compared to 22.2 rushing attempts per game. The emphasis on the passing game has allowed opposing defenses to focus almost exclusively on shutting down Cutler’s passes. This is largely the result of having to play from behind.

And what causes a team to play from behind? How about having the 28th ranked defense in both yards and points allowed per game? As you would suspect, the defense has been much worse in the losses. The Broncos have allowed an average of 31 points in the losses versus 24.5 in the wins.

They have averaged a turnover per game in the wins and averaged only .6 turnovers per game in the losses. In fact, the defense has been so poor at generating turnovers that seven NFL players single-handedly have the same number of interceptions as the entire Broncos defense (4). Worse yet, four players have more interceptions than the entire Broncos defense. This has led to a turnover ratio for the Broncos of -12.

Part of the poor play on defense has been the result of injuries; however, is it Cutler’s fault that six of our defensive back seven are backups? Or that the defensive line can not consistently pressure the opposing QB? Early fumbles by RB’s and WR’s have also caused the Broncos to play from behind early, particularly in the Kansas City and New England games.

Nevertheless, Krieger tries to use Cutler’s poor QB rating in the games the Broncos have lost to try to demonstrate that Cutler deserves the majority of the blame for those losses. This is the problem with using QB rating to demonstrate the quality of a quarterback’s play. He seems to have a point until we take into account that many of the factors that contributed to Jay’s low rating were well beyond his control. Certainly he deserves part of the blame for those losses...but not to the degree that Krieger is suggesting.

Ultimately, the assumption that a poor QB rating or interceptions are entirely the result of "immature" or poor play at QB is clearly faulty. However, I think that Krieger knows that. As he said in the article,

"Asked if he had an explanation for the ups and downs of the offense he runs, the Broncos' third-year quarterback replied:

"I do not. It's your guys' job to write it up."

Fair enough. So here it is: The heart of the Broncos' inconsistency is their quarterback. He personifies their split personality...

...After losses, he has nothing to say and considers accounting for the result an imposition. Every question is ridiculous. He mumbles a few quick answers and makes a rapid exit"

It occurs to me that Jay probably hurt Dave’s feelings by not giving him the time or detailed response that he thought one of his questions deserved and this is his way of getting back at him.

I should have realized that Krieger may not have been thinking clearly when he stated,

"Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, to name three, make an obvious effort to be professional and responsive after losses, as if they see it as a test of their maturity."

Philip Rivers is his example of a mature NFL quarterback? Really?

Do you mean this Philip Rivers?

Not very mature Dave. I’d say Jay is not the only one that has some "growing up" to do.