Denver on the Razor's Edge
As we all know, Denver leads the AFC West. With a loss against Cleveland, every team in the AFC West would have had a losing record. Here's what I'm driving at.
While Denver can get in the playoffs by leading the division, it is critical that they win the division. If SD can somehow creep up on Denver and take the division, Denver has almost zero chance for a playoff appearance as a wildcard.
Here's the current Division leaders (in order of ranking):
- TENN (ACS)
- PITT (ACN)
- BUF (ACE)
- DEN (ACW)
The current Wild Card Teams (by NFL Tie Break) are:
- BAL
- NE
Let's say SD catches us. We are now in a race for a wildcard position. In such a case, 3 teams have a better record than us in that race (we are at .556; BAL, NE, and NYJ all are at .625. Worse, NE owns the head to head against us).
In other words, we drop from 4th seed in the playoffs out of six seeds, to 8th place (2 teams out of the playoff picture). Additionaly, two teams (MIA and JAX) would be close enough to our record to beat us with a head to head tie break.
Bottom line: Denver must stay ahead of SD to make the playoffs. If they do this, they play against a wild card team in the first round, but it's a home game. If SD slips past us, we likely don't come anywhere close to a playoff berth.
Need some added incentive? Pork Chop Bill Williamson, anti-Bronco "writer" for ESPN just wrote a piece about why the Chargers will win our division. He doesn't seem to internalize the fact that Denver has the better record (even before the Thursday night victory over CLE), and that Denver has already beaten SD once. Sure we have mutiple injuries, but even so we STILL have a better record than SD.
And no; Pork Chop doesn't get a link to his ridiculous story.
By the way, while the odds are very much against the Chiefs, and we don't like 'em, find it in your blue and orange hearts to cheer for KC to beat SD this week. It would help Denver a lot, and I'll bet most of us dislike SD much more than KC anyway.
HT
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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46 comments
Comments
Pork Chop?
That is the first time I heard that. Almost made me fall off my couch with laughter. Him and Clayton need to be on radio!
by Steve O' on Nov 7, 2008 5:01 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
That was funny stuff
Touchdowns win championships?
by 53guys on Nov 7, 2008 6:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think credit goes to
BFSISD for coming up with Pork Chop.
"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game
"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano
by DesertBroncoFan on Nov 10, 2008 12:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't me.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 11, 2008 6:55 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I will definitely be voting for KC, but I still need LDT to have a big game (FF).
I couldn’t agree more, our only hope is to win AFC West. Well Pork Chop may have one point, he is looking at a team with no HBs.
by ThorpeBroncosfan on Nov 7, 2008 5:02 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Pork Chop hates the Broncos...ESPN's IQ is lower because of him.
If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
by Tim Lynch on Nov 7, 2008 5:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
My IQ is lower
after reading his articles.
by jonahsilas on Nov 8, 2008 1:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
That's alright Jonah.
Keep reading MHR. Your brain cells will regenerate!
(What movie are you borrowing from? “…and we’re all more stupid for having heard it” or something like that?)
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 2:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Movie
It’s from Billy Madison, near the end of the movie in the academic decathlon.
“Mr. Madison, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”
by birkhead on Nov 8, 2008 8:05 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen it yet...
…but I’ve read the quote a million times. I love it! I’ll see it someday. Promise.
Thanks for the reference!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 12:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
We will win the West this year.
In the books I read there is no other ending.
The best defense is a good offense!
I hope.
by Mike Clark on Nov 7, 2008 5:39 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
And we know that those books are accurate....
I have to get me a copy of those books. :-)
To have striven, to have made the effort, to have been true to certain ideals - this alone is worth the struggle. - William Penn
Tom Arnold, of Fox Sports Net's Best Damn Sports Show Period, said this about Warren Sapp: "Hey, Warren, the Raiders signed you to a seven-year deal. I guess Bill Callahan was right --- they are the dumbest team in America."
by Philistine21 on Nov 7, 2008 6:05 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Philistine--they all live hapily forever
The best defense is a good offense!
I hope.
by Mike Clark on Nov 7, 2008 6:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
La La Land Press?
Where can I get an import?
by jonahsilas on Nov 8, 2008 1:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
la-la-land-of-pre-season-feel-goods is closed--I have the only access--
unless we reach the Super Bowl
The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!
by Mike Clark on Nov 8, 2008 5:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I am expecting
to sneak in when we win the division. I mean, you gotta be La La-ing through the playoffs? Realism and playoff fervor don’t go well together.
by jonahsilas on Nov 12, 2008 4:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
It's new to all...but it going to STICK! At least I will make sure it does on my end. :)
If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
by Tim Lynch on Nov 7, 2008 5:43 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm there too
Makes me want to create a membership on his blog and call him PC.
Touchdowns win championships?
by 53guys on Nov 7, 2008 6:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree HT
There is no way that Denver would make it as a wildcard, we have to win the division to get into the playoffs, that being said, I really think we are probably one and done this year if we do make the playoffs, unless this defense can gell and DJ and Champ can come back. But I think it may be like the old AFC with a 35-30 playoff game.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
by Broncoman on Nov 7, 2008 5:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Hey HT, I gotta ask?
You seem to have disdain for Williamson, someone who I don’t mind, but yet you seem to have a lot of love for Mike Lombardi who has a proven track record of trying to get back at his former employers, what gives.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
by Broncoman on Nov 7, 2008 5:54 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I don't care for Lombardi all that much.
I think the piece he wrote recently was accurate in many ways (our problems with getting draft picks right on defense). Even a broken clock is wrong twice a day. You might notice that I agreed with the piece, and had no problem with the MHR member bringing up the piece in good faith. On the other hand, some crony from over at the Colts blog used the same piece, but tried to disguise it as a “friendly” note for us, and I wasn’t buying it (given the crony’s track record at MHR).
Context is everything.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 12:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
HT this is kinda off subject (in fact not even kinda), but
Bears post on Clady hit the recommended list so fast that I don’t think many had a chance to see it. Can you talk Guru into making it a front page post?
The best defense is a good offense!
I hope.
by Mike Clark on Nov 7, 2008 6:18 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Guru caught it before I had to say a word.
It certainly was a front page piece of work. Good call!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 12:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey HT ( off topic post sorry)
In a not too long ago post you made a chess reference that really impressed me with your knowledge, which got me wondering, I know this a Broncos web site but do you think there would be any interest to set up a Chess link where we all could play each other, perhaps have the pieces be football players in orange and blue (playing white) and the Raiders (playing black). I would really enjoy learning whatever you would be willing to share and it would be cool to play with our MHR faithful. Thoughts?
by Steve O' on Nov 7, 2008 9:08 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Steve, I love chess--hate doing it on the computer (staring at the board brings comfort or something) but chess (verily during the off season) would be fun.
The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!
by Mike Clark on Nov 7, 2008 9:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
That. Is. The. Greatest. Idea. Ever.
I can beat anyone in my family at chess, but I think I’d be totally outclassed by someone like HT. Still, it would be fun to play against experienced players. You know what else I’d like? A section of the site where we could just chat about whatever we want. Maybe if we had that, plus a game room… Well, then I wouldn’t do anything else, ever.
It was once said that a million monkeys typing at a million computers could reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the internet, we know that is not true.
by papigrande on Nov 7, 2008 11:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
or some enterprising young man could create such a site
and then tell all the folks here about it. :)
Might actually be better that way if there is no official connection between the two so Guru/MHR doesn’t get in trouble if something goes over the line.
by MattR on Nov 8, 2008 1:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
True...
But I have no idea how to create a site. I’d love to do it, but I don’t have a blessed clue how to register fora site, let alone design it or build the code for the games. Maybe I’ll take a couple of computer classes and design it in a year or so. That is a very awesome idea, and I’ll see about making it happen.
It was once said that a million monkeys typing at a million computers could reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the internet, we know that is not true.
by papigrande on Nov 8, 2008 8:24 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Count me in for chess, too
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on Nov 8, 2008 10:19 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
spock--it seems that Bronco fans like to use their brains--even during the off season--
live long and prosper!
Sorry—I just had to do that!
The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!
by Mike Clark on Nov 8, 2008 5:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I’d still like to keep the numbers managable. If someone sets up a private site so that we can keep the number of players reasonable, I’d be very glad to do some coaching and a little playing.
I use the Evans method for teaching (Larry Evans was a US Open Champion for several years. He was my coach when I was younger. Dr. Robert Hubner was a World Candidate player and coached me when I was very young and living in Germany).
Evans places a lot of emphasis on strategy before tactics (Time – initiative, Force – strength of pieces, Space – key squares, Pawn Structure – use of the most numerous pieces on the board). He used these four “pillars” to build winning positions, which could then be converted into tactics (pins, forks, skewers, mating nets, openings, endgames, etc). A lot of modern teaching methods throw a lot of memorization and tactics at the player, and expect the student to fall into the coach’s style of play. Evans (though American) taught in more of a Russian approach. Teach the tools for the student, and allow him or her to develop a style based on his or her on tendancies.
A lot of young players today learn tactics, but never get a chance to use them at advanced tournaments because they get out played strategicaly. By learning to build a good positon based on sound strategic principles, a student learns that the tactics will become available without having to calculate “moves ahead”. (The dirty secret is that master and GM level players don’t calculate moves ahead like a computer does, but instead they build better positions through “artistic” thought, something a computer can’t replicate. This requires a “players / artists” eye for what makes a better move/position, again based on the trade offs of time, space, force, and structure).
Set up the site. You’ll be surprised how much you learn in just the first few lessons. My only drawback is that I prefer the old descriptive system for annotation (ie P-K4 vs the new algabraic d4). I can use both, but am an old dog.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 1:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
You play any Go, HT? (Or anyone else here)
Your description of chess strategy as a “strategic art” is refreshingly similar to my general conception of the game of Go. I actually gave up chess in college to play more Go, partially because it is absolutely impenetrable to brute force calculating play. Instead one has to develop an innate sense of “thickness,” “connectivity,” and “territory.” A computer can come nowhere near the human mind as a Go player.
I am merely a novice at both games, but would be very interested in hearing your (or other) thoughts on the the similarities/differences…
by jonahsilas on Nov 8, 2008 1:50 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry.
Don’t know much about Go. But I did play a lot of Pente in college. There were several of us that were addicted to it.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 2:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Pente is cool
and definitely related to Go – but with a little less complexity. I only found out about it after playing Go so never got into it.
I have been getting back into Go recently, and have ben reading up on the computing challenge it represents (A branching factor of, basically, of 19^2 possible moves per turn creates a search space too big to use brute force computing techniques on. For this reason an unclaimed prize $1.5 million awaits the first programmer to make a master level program.).
Because of the sheer massive amount of possibilities, many geeks identify Go playing as more strategic than tactical, and Chess as the opposite. I have always enjoyed that aspect of Go – its impenetrability to sheer logic – and hence am very interested by your more strategic take on the game of Chess, HT. Has Evans written anything on this alternative take on Chess? I would love to hear/read more.
If you ever want to try out Go, I’d be happy to lend what I know to the mix or play online with you. I suspect you would really enjoy it. Having played against my wife’s grandfather, a retired Japanese Physics professor, however, I am acutely aware that I am at best a novice and more likely a total rube of a Go player. So take anything I have to say on the matter in that context. ;-)
by jonahsilas on Nov 13, 2008 8:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Chess
Most players master the tactical aspects of the game first. Master and above level players typically become familiar with the “deeper” aspect of the game. In fact, at the grandmaster level the players really aren’t looking “moves ahead”, but determining the better position after a single move based on variables (such as the exchanges between time, space, force, and structure) and much less on tactical issue like traps.
Computers using “brute force” have recently gone head to head with grandmasters with excellent results, but (as you know) the equalizer that helps the computers is that no human can match the tactics and computations of a computer. The only reason the human players have hope is the ability to cut through the calculations by analyzing who has the better “now” position, instead of calculating millions of potential positions.
Tactics are fun, but the heart and soul of “deeper” chess is stategy.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 14, 2008 1:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I never got good enough at chess to grasp this subtle element of the game. And bristled at the thought of mastering something which was essentially an exercise in rote memorization of tactics. Your words inspire me to perhaps take another look.
As for the computer chess world – it has actually been bad (IMHO) for the discipline that the search space is small enough to brute force a viable solution. It seems the human brain’s capability to instinctually gauge the value of a move/position is the major thing going for us in this “fight.” But because the simple tactical deep search method is workable, there has had to be little attempt to implement an AI that can mimic a more strategic style of play.
The thing is in go programming you just move past the brute force techniques, since they are non-viable, and have to look at building programs which play with a more “human like” intelligence. Ever since my grandfather-in-law whooped up on me at go, I have wished I could find a way to implement his understanding of the game in software. This whole conversation makes me wonder about the applicability of such concepts in the chess world as well…
You have successfully relit my chess intrigue, HT. Thanks for that. Hopefully I have at least given a decent plug for the ancient game of go in the process!
by jonahsilas on Nov 15, 2008 5:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll tell you what.
I used to give private lessons (my goal was to get a student to about an 1800 level USCF in <2 years at 2 hrs a week). If you get a site together, I’ll drop in with some solid teaching material.
My football teams always managed to be contenders (which is more a credit to the players and the head coach), but the chess teams skipped the state tournaments for the international scene (we made world regionals several times).
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 8, 2008 1:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
HT
I am talking to a friend of mine who is a programmer. He may be able to help. I don’t know what the rules are as far as adding links to sites or rooms, as far as MHR is concerned. Are there any guidlines?
My current level is around 1650. I use the Queen’s Gambit and the Kings Indian Defense. My first Chess tournament I went 1-7 and the Champion of that tournament went 7-1, my only win was his only loss. I was so bad I confused him!!
by Steve O' on Nov 8, 2008 9:51 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Nice!
I like the Caro-Kann against white KP openings, and the Dutch Defense against QP. As white, I like several of the Queen’s Gambits. Iike the Nimzo-Indian quite a bit too.
As far as MHR goes; If I were you, I would put together the site entirely independent of MHR. Invite MHR folks by e-mail to keep the site manageable. A good group of folks in this post sound interested.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 12:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Good anaylsis HT
YEs, I quit reading porkchop myself. He is one of the reasons I hated the post. and havent read it, unless Mdierk links it in his horsetrax. I dont read him on the four letter. either. Denver has to win the division to get into the playoffs. Especially with Denver 0-2 so far against the AFC East who most likely will be the main challengers for the 2 wildcard spots
somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong
by broncfanstuckinsd on Nov 8, 2008 11:40 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the thoughts bfsisd
Agreed.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 12:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

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