Which Teams a Broncos Fan Should Cheer For (week ten)

by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 3:06 AM MST in 2008 Game Previews Comment 20 comments

So you're sitting there wondering which game to watch, and Denver isn't available. Which team do you cheer for if you want the outcome to help Denver? No problem; MileHighReport.com has you covered.

Remember, this has nothing to do with which teams we like or hate. It is purely based on what outcomes best position Denver for the playoffs, and a good seeding once there.

We're also rating the games on how important they are for Denver fans. For instance, a Denver game, or a game that features a Denver division rival, gets near a 5, while a less important game gets a 1. So given a choice of several games, you now know which one is more important to watch! (Teams for Denver fans to cheer for are in CAPS).

Let's feed the schedule into MHR's Super Computer and see what results we get...

We've recalibrated the supercomputer for a new algorithm. Based on the thought that DEN must win the division (a wild card for the AFC West looks very improbable), there are different priorities for which teams we need to win. Denver's win over Cleveland was great, and we need for SD to be upset by KC. We lead the division, even with a SD win, but we need as much distance between our teams as possible.

NO at atl (1.7) - Need a NO win for the strength of sched tie-break.

sea at MIA (2.4) - While this is AFC over NFC, we need MIA to win for strength of sched tie-break.

buf at NE (2.3) - We want the team ranked lower in opposing AFC divisions to knock off team ranked higher for an easier playoff sched.

stl at NYJ (2.2) - see sea at MIA above.

gb at MIN (1) - Root for the lesser ranked NFC team.

bal at HOU (2) - Root for the lesser ranked AFC team.

ten at CHI (2.7) - Root for the NFC over the AFC, and for conference leading tenn to have a difficult road to the first seed.

JAX at det (2.4) - see sea at MIA above.

CAR at oak (4) - Keep the AFC West rivals off our back.

IND at pit (2) - Root for the lesser ranked AFC team.

KC at sd (4.99) - Game of the week (next to the Broncos beating CLE). Root hard against sd from here on out.

nyg at PHI (1) - Root for the lesser NFC team.

SF at ari (2) - Root for the lesser AFC team.

Poll

When we play SD at the end of the season...

We'll have enough of a lead in the playoff race to rest our players (strong lead - rest players)

45 votes

We'll be tied with SD in the playoff race, and need the win (tie, advantage SD - must win)

70 votes

We'll be tied with SD, but will still lead SD for the division with tie breaks to get to the playoffs and can rest players (tie, advantage DEN - rest players)

39 votes

We'll fall behind SD by that point in the season; game is either a must win or too late to win

42 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 20 comments

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Comments

Gotta love that computer, Thanx HT!

by metalman5050 on Nov 9, 2008 7:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

At what point...

do we cheer for AFC west over high ranked NFC opponents? (i.e CAR at OAK) I don’t believe Oak will be making a post season run and Carolina will be. Also, strength of schedule factors in here because we play Oak twice.

by Future Bronco DC on Nov 9, 2008 8:05 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Good question.

It all depends on what variables you use for your algorithm. In my case, I’m assuming through a brute force calculation that it is possible (even if unlikely) for KC and OAK to catch us. Until they are eliminated from playoff contention, I root against them. At the point they are no longer a threat for the all important division lead, I switch over to the strength of schedule point that you make.

Depending on how one weighs different parameters, a case could be made to adjust the algorithm several ways. I’ve already made one adjustment at the midseason mark. I will continue to make adjustments as the season goes on. At a later point in the season, all reasonable differences in how one weighs variables will become similar until (with just a few weeks left) there is only one way to weigh the factors.

The biggest adjustment I’ve made (the midseason mark) is throwing out any chance of a wildcard, and going all out for the division. Because of this, losses by division rivals are even more critical than before.

Great point Future!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 12:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Breakdown of our chances...

What the Chargers must do to catch us (barring a complete collapse on our part)….

Da Bolts – 3-5 (2 GB).

Kansas City Chiefs (W, should win)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers (critical game)
Indianapolis Colts (critical game)
Atlanta Falcons (W, should win, will be tough)
Oakland Raiders (W, should destroy)
@ Kansas City Chiefs (W, should win)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (critical game)
Denver Broncos

I’ll give the Chargers 4 wins hands down. That gets them to 7-5. If they manage to sweep the 3 tougher opponents (we’re in trouble b/c they’re playing really well), they’ll be 10-5 going into our end of season match up. If that’s the case, our team will be on red alert. I’d love to see us lose only 1 game before we play SD, but I don’t see that, especially as we continue to lose players to injury. However, I think SD will stumble down the stretch and can easily go 2-1 or even 1-2 against those tough opponents (if they lose all 3, yeah us!). Those latter records put them at 9-6 (makes our game against them meaningful) or 8-7 (could still make our game meaningful). Why? Keep reading…

Bronocs – 5-4

@ Atlanta Falcons (critical game)
Oakland Raiders (W, should destroy)
@ New York Jets (critical game)
Kansas City Chiefs (W, should win. revenge game, to boot)
@ Carolina Panthers (critical game)
Buffalo Bills (critical game)
@ San Diego Chargers (critical game)

Man, unless your drinking some serious kool-aid, you’ll notice how brutal our end of season schedule is. The Panthers, Bills and Chargers will be vying for playoff positions. I cannot, in good conscious, give us easy wins over any team other than KC and OAK. That brings us to 7-4. We really need to go at least 2-2 in those 4 tougher games before we play SD (the ATL game next week is critical for us and would make me feel better about our chances). Two wins puts us at 9-6 before the SD game. I think this is our best case scenario. That being said, I can seriously see us going 1-3 or even 0-4 against our tougher opponents.

I know we’re not supposed to think that way, and some may accuse me of not keeping the faith, but our team has been decimated by injuries and we pretty much have to shoot our way out of the AFC West bar to stand a chance. And by shoot our way out, I mean Cutler will rack up loads of yards/TDs, and sadly, load of INTs (I’m surprised more people haven’t made the Favre comparison yet. Oh wait, people will have that chance when we play the Jets).

So, can we do it? Sure. Will it be so easy that we can rest our players against SD? I seriously doubt that. Hell, if that’s the case, that means we played great down the stretch and SD imploded. Still, I hate the mindset that is fearful of playing another team. Let’s hope we get to be the team that knocks SD out of the playoff picture while we win the division. That’s the kind of game that we can build on going into next season. Next season you say? Keep reading…

Just because I say this doesn’t mean I don’t root my ass off that we don’t “go all the way!” But right now we’re barely a playoff contender right now (thank you parity), have lost more players at key positions than most teams (seriously, we can’t afford to lose anymore players), a team that plays with a reckless abandon that drives me to drink in jubilation and despair, and have a very difficult schedule down the stretch. I want us to get into the playoffs. I want our young players to taste it so that they’ll work even harder in the offseason. But just because I want some it, doesn’t mean it will happen. If our team makes the playoffs this year, it will be because they earned it. GO BRONCOS!

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Nov 9, 2008 8:59 AM MST reply actions 3 recs

can you make this a fanpost BC?

If you don’t ahve the time let me know and I’ll put it up, but you should get the recs.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Nov 9, 2008 10:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

just did...

took the kids to a birthday party and just got back. Thanks for the rec!

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Nov 9, 2008 1:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I second Styg's comment.

And recommend the comment.

One minor point; I think ATL can give SD a lot of problems. (ATL can give us problems too). I think ATL might sweep both SD and DEN.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 12:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

As the Saints just learned..

man, who would have guessed Atlanta would be this good. It’s like the football gods are paying them back after the Vick debacle!

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Nov 9, 2008 1:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Also the way that their coach stabbed them in the back...

…and even the loss of Hall.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 9, 2008 2:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

doesnt hurt

they also got rid of canerous players,like MeAngelo Hall

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Nov 9, 2008 2:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Just goes to prove...

that it doesn’t pay to keep knuckleheads around.

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Nov 9, 2008 8:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I always prefer truth over starry eyed optimism.

Excellent job.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Nov 10, 2008 10:16 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Comment

I see things going exactly the same way as you.

I think Atlanta is going to be very tough for us (they are undefeated at home this season) and have a passing attack that will be difficult to defend if Champ doesn’t get back in time and Michael Turner has been known to gash us in the past. I don’t know enough about their defense but it appeared they stopped Drew Brees and picked him off a couple of times. Add to that, Denver hasn’t been good (historically) in domes!

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Nov 10, 2008 12:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Inside word...

At least two of the staff will be picking against Denver in the “staff picks” section this week. It’s nothing against the team, just what we honestly think the result will be (and we’ll be hoping we’re wrong). I’m one.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 10, 2008 1:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still on the edge

but leaning toward picking against the Broncos. I picked the Browns last week in one of my pools (the money one, of course). First time I’ve picked against them this year! Maybe that’s the motivation the players need?

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

by DesertBroncoFan on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If that's true...

…will you lose money betting just so the Broncos can win? lol.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Nov 10, 2008 6:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm torn

as of now, I have the Broncos, but with a fairly low confidence (4). That will be adjusted as the week goes along depending on what happens at MHR and during the cross-blogging session with the Falcoholics.

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

by DesertBroncoFan on Nov 11, 2008 9:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

…nothing personal, but if I have to choose between the Broncos or you winning, I’m going to go with the Broncos. But either way you’d be a winner, lol.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Nov 11, 2008 3:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs