I had a horrible week with my upset picks last week, but I still finished in third place in my money league with 12 wins.  My biggest...and only...win was picking the 49ers to beat the Jets.  I've got another big week with upset picks.  I'd sure like to win another $50 before the season ends!

Last Week: 1-4
Overall Record: 17-21

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website.  If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 40% and up would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Denver over Carolina

I typically do not like to do many high risk picks, but this week I have a feeling about several that I could no ignore.  All three are under 15% of Yahoo users, but I have a good feeling I will win at least two of them.  Everyone is on the Carolina bandwagon after their dominating performance against their division rivals.  The Panthers play the Giants next week and this Sunday could be a perfect time for them to come out flat and we all know how the Broncos like to prove themselves against quality opponents.  I see the Broncos winning this game 30-26.

Kansas City over San Diego

This is my least favorite pick because both teams are so unpredictable.  I have a feeling the Chiefs will come out determined to play spoiler and the Chargers, after their big win last week, will come out cocky and pull a Norv. This game will not be as close as their last matchup, but the Chiefs will win by two scores.  I'll keep my fingers crossed for this one.

Houston over Tennessee

This game is going to be close.  After starting 0-4, the Texans are 6-3 and a lot better than their record suggests.  I still think Tennessee's chances, but the risk/reward was high enough for me to take a stab at this one.  Only 12% of Yahoo users got Houston, so this is a perfect chance for me to gain an edge.  If my risk backfires, then there is always next week!  Houston by 3.

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

San Francisco over Miami
Jacksonville over Green Bay
Minnesota over Arizona

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

I originally had Dallas, but I have since changed my mind about them.  I may still change my mind back, but who knows.  I like Baltimore's chances here and with only 33% of Yahoo users taking them; I really like the risk/reward for this game.  Pittsburgh has been winning by the skin of their teeth and Baltimore is still seething from their loss to the Steelers earlier in the season.  This game may not even be close, but I got Baltimore by 3 here.

Dallas over New York Giants

Okay, I was about to post this when I changed my mind again.  I just have a feeling that Marion Barber III is going to come out and bust everyone in the mouth.  I like the guy, solid character guy and a tough football player.  He has got to feel disrespected by Jerry Jones and I think he is going to come out and play with heart.  I am back on the Dallas Cowgirl bandwagon.  They will keep their playoff hopes alive for one more week.  I will go with the 38% of Yahoo users here.

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Tampa Bay over Atlanta

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Chicago over New Orleans

This game already took place and it looks like I lucked out with this pick.  59% of Yahoo users took Chicago and anything close to 50-50 is a low risk pick because close to half of the other users took the other team.  In my league only about 40% took Chicago so this game turned out to be a huge win for me.  Let's hope the rest of the week turns out to be as fortuitous.

Seattle over St. Louis

58% of Yahoo users took Seattle in this game and even though I have a bad feeling about this pick, I also took Seattle.  This game has the potential to go either way and I have no faith in either team.  I should take the home team, but I just don't know so I did the pansy thing and went with the majority here.  This would be a good spot though for many of you to go against the grain and pick the Rams here.  In a world that makes sense, this game would end in a 0-0 tie.