A Tale of Two Seasons (Lee Rasizer stole my article today-although he did write it better)

by super7 on Dec 18, 2008 9:55 AM MST Comment 41 comments

How many times have you read about how the Denver Broncos are hard to figure out. They're up one week and bad the next. They beat teams they should lose to and lose to teams they should beat.

Wrong. They're easy to figure out. The only thing incosistent about the Broncos is the offense.

2 variables dictate Denver's performance: Turnovers and how well their offense is playing. That's it. They are directly related as well.

Here are the things that are not variable. The defense is atrocious. The youth is..well..young. The running back position has been a war of attrition. But none of these things have anything to do with winning and losing in 2008.

The team wins when it's best player is playing well and neither he nor the other players are turning the ball over. When Denver's young QB and his surrounding offense are rolling, nobody, yes, I said nobody, can stop them. Denver relies on Jay Cutler more than on any other player. Denver relies on Cutler playing great more than any other team relies on any one of their players to play great. The measure of Denver's offensive success is Cutler's play. The NFL measuring stick on Quarterback play is QB rating. So lets look at that in a second.

Now, lets say Denver plays Indianapolis and the offense is rolling, Denver could still lose the game because of the defense, but at very least, Denver's offense will have a chance to score last or at least a chance to put them up with little time left.

When Denver doesn't turn the ball over, it means that the offense is rolling along as well. And when the offense rolls, then Jay Cutler rolls, when he rolls, so go the Denver Broncos.

In Denver's 6 losses:

	TO(s)	Points scored	QB Rating
KC	4	19	71.9
JAX	3	17	77.8
NE	5	7	64.3
MIA	3	17	60.7
OAK	2	10	49.8
CAR	2	10	74.3
average	3.17	13.33	66.47

In Denver's 8 wins:

	TO(s)	Points scored	QB Rating
OAK	0	41	137.5
SD	1	29	109.6
NO	2	34	93.3
TB	0	16	96.1
CLE	1	26	107.9
ATL	0	24	106.4
NYJ	1	34	94.8
KC	1	24	102.7
average	0.75	28.5	106.04

So, Cutler hasn't been over around a 77 in a loss and hasn't been under a 93 in a win. That's a 16 point gap. He hasn't even hit the 80's. This is a huge statistical proof. If you want to measure Denver's success on Sunday versus the Bills, at halftime, figure out his QB rating (or check the stats on the game online) and check how many turnovers Denver's had. If Denver has 0 or 1 turnovers and Cutler's rating is over a 90, then call Vegas and try and put some dough on the 2nd half. If not, then make sure you're prepared to watch the San Diego game on December 28th with some heart medicine in your pocket.

READ THIS ARTICLE TOO. Lee Rasizer from the News stole my article. He owes me lunch. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/17/cutler-shouldering-load-of-carrying-broncos-to/?partner=RSS

Go Broncos.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Another stat. The Broncos score 20 or more points, they are golden!

They had better win this weekend. :(

This is my GAP, there are many like it but this one is mine. Without my GAP I am useless, without me, they will run through my GAP. I will protect my GAP and have my brothers back on his. I will not be moved from my GAP, I am a crazed dog that patrols this area and will defeat all who entire it. I own this GAP, it is mine. I bought it with blood and sweat. I will not be pushed. I will not be moved. This Sunday I will make a stand and a statement.

by Tim Lynch on Dec 17, 2008 12:30 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

If we lose to Buffalo I will not watch the San Diego game.

I will record it, spend the day watching the first season of “LOST”, and check things out Monday. If we win I will watch the recording—if not it gets erased.

If we win—the next three seasons of “LOST” get put back in the cupboard.

If we lose I’ll start watching “LOST” each weekend—and check back in to MHR a few weeks before the draft.

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Dec 17, 2008 12:48 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I understand Mike,

but there’s no better feeling than sitting there and living or (God forbid) dying with your team.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Dec 17, 2008 1:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

My other strategy may be to NOT get "LOST" out of the cupboard, buy an eighteen pack of Coors Light instead...

…and drink my way through the game.

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Dec 17, 2008 1:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

There you go.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Dec 17, 2008 1:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

hell im getting a keg

by robbo650 on Dec 17, 2008 10:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I just got

a Sam Adam’s Holiday Pack.

Num Num!

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"Superman wears Peyton Hillis pajamas" - FlaBronco

by DesertBroncoFan on Dec 18, 2008 11:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Clark

You are a Liar. You are as addicted as the rest of us here at MHR.

My image is the Circa 1960-’61 Broncos home uniform sock. Some what folk lore to me ... but referred to as the clown sock by my Dad.

by YellowStoneBronco on Dec 17, 2008 1:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

lol-- That's why I have a second strategy.

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Dec 17, 2008 1:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll watch ever punishing and humilating second of the SD game if we lose to Buffalo this weekend.

by Tim Lynch on Dec 17, 2008 2:05 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

So you feel I should go with my second strategy?

The best defense is a good defense!
And last week's young players. Yes!

by Mike Clark on Dec 17, 2008 2:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

lost

is amazing. whats in the hatch? I DONT KNOW! well, youll get there.

by denver_diaspora on Dec 18, 2008 10:07 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm feeling that I'm becomming the bad guy of this site!

But my inner statistician has to say something.

So you’re saying that in games where your offense is bad, you loose the game? This sparks your thought: “the blame of the losses lays with the offense”. When somebody presents a stat, that shows that the QB has to put up a 75+ passer rating in order for your team to win, I immediatly think: “Then there’s something wrong with your defense”.

It’s like saying, after your soccer-team has lost 5-4, that the strikers are to blame because they failed to score 6 goals!

Good teams absorb blunders by the offense by stepping up on defense. BAL, PIT, PHI, NYG, NYJ etc.

It’s not my intention to step on your work – the stats are good and illustrative, but the conclusion is a bit off…

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 1:02 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Good point Claus.

It just goes to show that the whole team wins or loses. It also shows that once the defense is solid, maybe it will be able to come through and win a few for the team.

BTW, I think it’s getting closer. It was one play that broke the Broncos last weekend. They had the RB bottled up but got caught out of position on his unexpected cutback.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Dec 17, 2008 1:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

It was, in my opponion, not the one play that broke the camels back – it was the 1264 catches of Smith. In the NYJ-game the Broncos overcame 2 (!!) big TD-runs. But I have D. Williams in fantasy, so i’m biased. My thought at the time was: “This games was over anyway, might as well be glad the DeAngelo got the long one”.

I agree that it’s getting closer. Stopping the run is the most important on D. Especially this week – BUF are starting their 3rd stringer at QB – he can’t beat us!

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 1:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Utterly disagree

The defense is awful. However, maybe the defense plays well, if the offense turns the ball over and Cutler plays like crap, Denver will probably lose.

Look, the defense can’t turn the ball over.

The stats above are eye popping. Lindsey Jones would kill for this story.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 1:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Defense can't turn the ball over?

What about Marcus Thomas fumbling his interception against NO :-P

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"Superman wears Peyton Hillis pajamas" - FlaBronco

by DesertBroncoFan on Dec 17, 2008 1:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point though.

Lindsey Jones would still kill for this story, lol.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Dec 17, 2008 1:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

The turnovers and Cutler’s QB rating have been mentioned countless times in the DP and RMN. But when dealing with such a small sample size (14 football games) you cannot really say what causes what. There is a correlation, but it may just be coincidental – it’s not fair to say that Cutler’s QB rating or the turnovers are specifically what cause the losses.

When the defense gives up points, then Cutler is forced to throw more and take more risks. Naturally, this will result in a poorer QB rating more times than not. Or, maybe it’s the running game’s fault. Or special teams and a poor field position. Whatever it is, I just don’t think 14 games shows anything more than a small trend. With so few games played, any confluence of any number of variables affect a football game. Unfortunately, football is not quite as easy as baseball to explain by statistics. There are just too many variables to consider.

by Douglas A. Lee on Dec 17, 2008 1:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry...meaning I agree with Claus

this is a bit of a stretch. But nothing less than the utmost respect for Super7’s work…

by Douglas A. Lee on Dec 17, 2008 1:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

No worries

You may have me mixed up though…here’s what I’m saying:

When Denver wins, it is in spite of the defense
When Denver loses, the offense doesn’t get off the ground for one reason or another, but the defense was gonna play awful either way.

I’m not saying that its not the defense’s fault, I’m saying that the defense does the same thing in every game anyway, which is suck. The only variable in 2008 is how well the offense plays and the 2 metrics that reflect that hypothesis are QB rating an turnovers.

We haven’t lost a “shootout” type game this year have we? Every loss Denver has had this year was an offensive clunker!

Denver’s Offense averages 13 points in losses. Our defense stinks. Do the math. Denver has to score more than 26 points a game on average to beat their opponents. Denver is GIVING UP 26 POINTS A GAME THIS SEASON!!! WOW!

If Denver makes the playoffs, they will do so in spite of one of the historically bad defenses in Broncos history. That must mean that we had one of the great offenses in Broncos history, which I think we do.

I think Claus thought I was saying something that I wasn’t. I’m not saying its the offense’s fault, I’m saying that when we lose, our offense can’t produce enough to negate a poor defensive showing.

I’m showing an obvious trend.

The numbers from the 6 losses are atrocious and the numbers from the 8 wins are marvelous.

When Denver’s Offense sputters we lose, and its because our Defense is gonna sputter regardless, which is not variable.

In the end, this is great news! Denver’s offense has not been consistent at all. If they can do what they did right in 2008 12 times next year, they’ll torch the record books.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 2:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...

IMHO, there’s no way this is coincidental.

If there was 1 QB rating that didn’t match the others, maybe, but there’s not. There’s no statistical anomaly in the QB ratings column.

WHen we have a great gameplan and Cutler plays his face off, we win. When our offensive gameplan has too many flaws in it and things don’t go Denver’s way, they lose.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 2:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree actually

I either confused you or didn’t type this up coherently enough (more likely).

See my comment below.

I’m saying our defense is not variable. Its bad when we win or lose (giving up 26 points a game in 08).

When we WIN, its all offense (in spite of the D). A par to sub par showing on offense will always equal a loss in 2008.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 2:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I that case i think we agree!

Sort of… I mean:

I’m saying that when we lose, our offense can’t produce enough to negate a poor defensive showing.

Well, duh? Thats one linguistic (spelling?) level above saying a Madden’esque sentence: “When you loose a footballgame its because you don’t score more points, than you’re giving up”.

You conclusion should have, IMO ie. if I were writing it, been:
“These numbers clearly show that EVERY SINGLE TIME our offense drops of from being league-best to slightly above average, we lose. This only goes to show how [insert adjective or adverb] bad our defense is”

Then we can defenately agree!

Oh, and a pet peeve of mine:

We haven’t lost a "shootout" type game this year have we?

On one occasion the D was a sure-fire TD-catch from a pro bowl reciever away from giving up a lead-changing TD with a minute to go. By putting a backup safety on said reciever in a 3-17 (!!) situation.

The O nearly tossed one away when a TE fumbled, and the D chipped in by not being able to come up with the stop, thus surrendering the gamewinning FG. Except it was missed… Basically twice.

And then the O messed up, but was saved by the salvaging super hero who rhymes with broccoli.

No we didn’t loose any close ones (except JAX – but that was only close on the scoreboard) – but is a flip of a coin, and Denver hit the jackpot on the .5*.5*.5 = 12,5% chance.

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 3:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It reminds me of the famous stat...

…“The team that scores more points is more likley to win”.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Dec 18, 2008 10:06 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that IF the defense was solid, they could keep us in games

But they don’t. EVER.

The defense will NOT step up in 08. Don’t wait for it to happen b/c it won’t. They may get lucky, but they’re not any good right now.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 1:22 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I think the defense is improving.

They sure can’t carry the offense right now but they are moving toward not keeping us from winning. While your numbers on Cutler are ,we must also consider the effectiveness of our running game in those six losses. Good food for thought Super, thanks!

It all starts in the trenches HT 11/11/08

by firstfan on Dec 17, 2008 2:38 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I should have titled the article

“Leading indicators of offensive Success”

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 2:43 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

That would've been perfect!

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 3:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It should also be said that the QB rating

reflects more than whether Jay is at the top of his game. Are his receivers able to get open? Are they dropping balls? Is the running game at least effective enough to allow us to mix it up a little bit? It’s seemed to me that when the Broncos O has stalled this year, it hasn’t always been Cutler’s fault, though it might look that way from his rating.

"You're slow. You're not a running back, and you're not a running back for a reason."
The Shanahan

by Broncs Cheer on Dec 17, 2008 2:58 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Sure!

Entirely right.

Allthough i agree with super7 that (when you have little RB-production) QB-rating is a fairly good at measuring how well your offense is performing.

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 3:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, I just think the stat is jaw dropping

It just goes to show Denver’s offense doesn’t just play “OK”. They’re either world beaters or awful.

For instance, the first quarter of the Pats game seemed like our O was playing pretty good. We ran well w/ Pittman and Cutler was taking his time. But t hen Pittman got hurt, Hall fumbled his career away, and Cutler was forced to play dangerous football against a veteran defense. It got ugly in a hurry. They were awful, and because Jay is the center or our offense, his stats went down to toilet that game. However, he’ll learn patience and he’ll learn to throw the ball away, and he’ll learn to run for the 4 yard gain intead of going for the impossible 40 yard gain.

But even though he does that stuff, I’d rather have him than anyone else in the NFL.

This is a quote from Pat Summerall: “(He) is the master of the inconcieveable pass thrown to the unreachable spot”. Sounds like Jay, but he said that about John Elway.

Man, Broncos fans are LUCKY!

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 3:29 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

exactly

and Cutler was forced to play dangerous football against a veteran defense.

We can all agree that Cutler has some Favre-esque tendencies (i hurts to type that). This is similar to why we so inconsistent performances from Favre – when he can sit back with a lead at dump off to his TEs and go for the deep dagger when it’s there, he’s great.
When his defense are letting him down, he has to force it a little bit, and he ends up trusting his arm too much. OR he pulls some rediculous comeback and gets the MVP. It’s 50/50 wheter or ont he can cover for the D, dependign on if he’s having “a good day”…

You know?

Random quotes about the raiders:
They really shouldn’t play — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
This is an utter disaster — Chris Collinsworth (12/5/08)
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on Dec 17, 2008 3:43 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If Cutler is Farve-esque

Does that make Farve Elway-esque or just envious of Elway?

Victor Frankl:

What man actually needs is not a tensionless state but rather the striving and struggling for some goal worthy of him. What he needs is not the discharge of tension at any cost, but the call of a potential meaning waiting to be fulfilled by him.

Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.

by wyoeng on Dec 17, 2008 4:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I love the sig wyoeng!!

There is only One Moment—this moment—the Eternal Moment of Now

by sirsam on Dec 18, 2008 10:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I do, but

A better running game and a QB who doesn’t get too frusterated in adversity’s face will bring the offense to a more consistent game. I was proud of JC versus KC when he tossed a pick in Q1 but had a great game. Last year that would have been where the wheels fell off. JC forces it when he feelslike its not working. Versus Carolina, he made like 3 or 4 terrible throws in a row into coverage. One was picked and others should have been. I felt like JC was almost doing it out of frustration. That will change, but I hope that he doesn’t get that way vs. Buffalo, because I could see it happening vs SD.

by super7 on Dec 17, 2008 3:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Super 7, Thank you for pointing it out

the atrocities of the defense don’t matter as much as great QB play. Everyone knows it is almost impossible to win in this league with a bad QB. What makes a QB better? An O-line, check, and a running game!

If Shanny can make hamburger meat running backs into steak, what can he do with a Filet Mignon? (Here is a hint, TD went for 7k plus in 4 servicable years and CP was one of only 4 to rush for 3k in his first two years)

by Steve O' on Dec 17, 2008 5:44 PM MST reply actions 0 recs