Top Defensive Rebuilds Since 1995

by Snaggins on Dec 30, 2008 11:37 AM MST

In 1996, the Denver Broncos were the 2nd ranked defense in the league (as rated by Football Outsider’s DVOA measure), while the previous year they were 28th. Many members of this board have hoped for a similar defensive turnaround for the 2009 Broncos. On the other hand, the relevance of this example in the current NFL environment has also been drawn into question. Thus, I thought it would be interesting to look at some other teams that have managed to turn around bad defenses. I’m hoping to do a series of case studies presented as an ongoing feature during the off-season (hopefully with some help from these teams bloggers) with the intention of identifing some common themes from other successful defensive rebuilds.

So what have been the most notable defensive rebuilds? I'll restrict my focus to teams since 1995. This allows me to include the 1996 Broncos and also corresponds with the dates of the DVOA database. I'm using rankings of total defense DVOA as a convenient and reasonable single-valued measure of defensive quality.

There have been 9 year-to-year changes in rank that are greater than 20 since 1995, but most of these large changes have been a "bad" year sandwiched between other good years, and in my opinion don't really count as a rebuild. For example, Saint Louis went from 3rd in 1999 to 26th in 2000 to 5th in 2001. Others are the 1997 Raiders, the 2004 and 2007 Redskins, and the 2006 Colts. Thus, I'll define rebuild somewhat subjectively. This may include a rapid year-to-year change,but I'm also interested in marked but more gradual improvement
(e.g. Indianapolis Colts from 2001 - 2005).

So without further ado, here is my list of Top 10 Defensive Rebuilds. Please let me know if you think I've missed any that should be considered.

(team: year, rank. defensive coordinator during turnaround year):
DEN: 1995, 28; 1996, 2, 1997, 7. (Greg Robinson, 1995-2000)
MIA: 1996, 20; 1997, 27; 1998, 1; 1999, 9. (George Hill, 1998-1999)
PHI: 1997, 15; 1998, 26; 1999, 7; 2000, 8. (Jim Johnson, 1999-Present)
CLE: 1999, 30; 2000, 25; 2001, 3; 2002, 10. (Foge Fazio, 2001-2002)
BUF: 2001, 27; 2002, 24; 2003, 7; 2004, 1. (Dick LeBeau, 2003)
GB: 2004, 29; 2005, 22; 2006, 6; 2007, 15. (Bob Sanders, 2006-Present)
JAC: 2001, 22; 2002, 25; 2003, 10; 2005, 10. (Mike Smith, 2003-2007)
IND: 2001, 30; 2002, 23; 2003, 15; 2004, 19; 2005, 8. (Ron Meeks, 2002 - Present)
MIN: 2004, 32; 2005, 19; 2006, 4; 2007, 17; 2008, 3. (Mike Tomlin, 2006)
TEN: 2005, 32; 2006, 24; 2007, 1; 2008, 5. (Jim Schwartz, 2001-Present)

Disclaimer: The fact that Bob Slowik had been coordinator on two of
these teams prior to the rebuild did not influence my selections.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Great post and rec'd

That is very interesting to note…and gives us some names of people who can get the job done.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Dec 30, 2008 11:51 AM MST reply actions

Awesome post.

Hopefully the Broncos can turn it around in 09.

by broncoholic on Dec 30, 2008 12:57 PM MST reply actions

Looking at the teams ranked #1...

…they consistently have dominant D-Line and linebackers.

98 MIA – Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas
04 BUF – Pat Williams, Sam Adams, Fletcher, Spikes
07 TEN – Thornton, Bulluck, Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth

Of course, there are other teams that had dominant players at other positions. The 96 Broncos had great Safeties. The 98 Dolphins had great Safeties.

I don’t think the coordinators have as much to do with the rankings as the players. Compared to this years Broncos, there aren’t any players that stack up to these teams. Whoever the coordinator is, unless we get talent at all positions on the defense, they will continue to struggle.

We are looking at another 2 years to rebuild this defense. The one bright spot in regards to the time-frame is the offense is young, so they can sustain a 2 year rebuild if necessary.

Franklin Gutierrez: "PMR likes him. UZR loves him. Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett's coffee table." - Jeff Sullivan

by coffee on Dec 30, 2008 1:58 PM MST reply actions

Is that relevant...

…to the current Broncos. On first glance most of these seem to be teams that had the players in place already. Clearly not the case with the Broncos this year.

Also, I’m not convinced that DVOA is a statistically meaningful number. Sure there’s a lot of fancy calculation behind it, but that doesn’t mena it translates to wins v. losses.

However, I think studying what other teams have done to turn around their defense is a great way to test various theories.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Dec 30, 2008 2:11 PM MST reply actions

Great post

One thing that about the 96 team, it’s always easier to play defense when your team can score points early and often and make the other team one dimensional. I guess it is the chicken and the egg scenerio, if you have one, the other will follow. So hopefully our offense improves on points, if we can average 28 pooints a game, the defense will improve dramatically.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Dec 30, 2008 2:25 PM MST reply actions

Draft or Free Agency or both, what mix produces success?

An interesting off-shoot to this would be a measure of to what degree did these turnarounds come from free agency as opposed to the draft. Could you use whatever formula the sum of these actions produces to produce a formula for mixing draft / free agency during a rebuild? I think so!!!! DO IT SHANNY!!!! USE THE FORMULA!!!!!!!

by GJcontingent-rAd on Dec 30, 2008 2:57 PM MST reply actions