I wasn't so good the last time I did this post, but I've had a couple of solid weeks in between. I've won $100 in the last three weeks in my money league and since I paid $85 to join, I am guaranteed to finish ahead of the game. I need to keep on a roll, so here we go again!
Last Week: 2-5
Overall Record: 16-17
*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website. If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 40% and up would be a low risk pick.
High Risk Upset Picks:
San Francisco over New York Jets
This is my upset pick of the week, perhaps even of the year! I give the 49ers a 25% chance of winning this game, which was a big enough percentage for me to take a stab at it. I am behind in the yearly totals and need to make up some ground. This pick could backfire, but I just got one of those gut feelings that I cannot ignore.
Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:
Philadelphia over New york Giants
Jacksonville over Chicago
Medium Risk Upset Picks:
Buffalo over Miami
I hate this pick. I should switch it to the favorite. Buffalo has screwed me over for six straight weeks. I picked them five of those weeks and they lost and I picked against them once and they won. Go figure. I am changing my approach this time. Instead of picking them if they are favored and picking against them when they are underdogs, I am picking them as underdogs. Let's hope it FINALLY pays off! They still irritate me.
Dallas over Pittsburgh
I had Pittsburgh earlier in the week, but the more I look at this match up the more I think Dallas may have the advantage. The key to this game will be pressure on Big Ben. If the Cowgirls can get enough pressure on him they will win this game as Ben struggles greatly when he is constantly under duress. I don't like picking the Cowboys, but I think they pull out a close one this week.
Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:
Washington over Baltimore
Low Risk Upset Picks:
Atlanta over New Orleans
I liked the Saints in this game too...until the suspensions came down from the NFL. The distraction and loss of talent will be a factor this week and the young Falcons may be hungry to capitalize on one of the two teams losing on Monday Night. The NFC South is dominate at home, but the streaks end this weekend!
Tampa Bay over Carolina
I know at least one home team from the NFC South will lose this weekend, so I am hedging my bets in order to break even. This game will be decided by the Carolina offense and the Tampa Bay defense. Whoever wins that battle will win this game. I give the edge to the Bucs defense and I don't have much faith in Jake "the snake?" Delhomne.