Turnover Differential

by jack_ on Dec 9, 2008 12:51 AM MST

It is undeniable that turnover differential has been key in Broncos games this year. As I'm sure everyone has heard over and over by now, the Broncos have won every game this year in witch they have won or been tied in the turnover battle. This is tough because the Broncos are the second worst team in the league in turnover differential, at -12.

One thing that I don't think gets enough attention is that while the Broncos have turned the ball over a lot this season (24 times), they have the FEWEST takeaways in the league, with 12.

Despite the defense's inability to cause turnovers, the onus has still been on the offense. The prevailing logic has been that as long as the offense (Read: Jay Cutler) is careful and limits turnovers, the Broncos will win games. Obviously, I'm all for the offense not turning the ball over, but even the most careful offenses still make mistakes.

The lack of takeaways is a big factor in why the Broncos rank only 10th in points per game, despite being 2nd in yards per game. If you look at the top 7 scoring teams in the league, you find that they have 26, 17, 21, 24, 23, 22, and 26 takeaways, compared to Denver's 12 (and the 17 belongs to the Saints who are 1st in yards per game). it's all about field position- which was Guru's big issue last season. A takeaway on the opponent's side of the field can turn into a field goal even if the offense stalls completely. Considering that the Broncos are only about 4 points per game behind the league lead, a few easy scores off turnovers would have made a big difference.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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I agree Jack

My question is, how do we improve the turnover ratio? I know the obvious…pass rush. I wonder if those top 7 scoring teams have a pass rush to match?

I don't believe we can win every game, just the next one. - Lou Holtz
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.-Bill Gates

by orangeblood on Dec 9, 2008 5:48 AM MST reply actions

yes...I guarantee they do.

If you want to understand how it’s done watch Pittsburgh. They put 7-8 guys in the box, keep them moving, then typically only send four (not even a true blitz). However, the offense has absolutely no idea which four are coming and it throws them off balance and causes plays to be hurried. Furthermore, they tend to overload one side in terms of the four that they do bring.

Slowik’s defense, on the other hand, is soul-crushingly predictable. Any NFL QB can read it…know they’ll have time to find their receivers and make a play. The problem is NOT the talent…the problem is the play calling and play design.

GO BRONCOS!!!

by UnarmingMermaid on Dec 9, 2008 6:36 PM MST up reply actions

Pittsburgh

You’re exactly right about Pitt, UAM. HT explained this in detail for those who are interested in his article The Modern 3-4 Defenses. LeBeau, DC of Pittsburgh, developed the LeBeau Zone Blitz 3-4 in the early 90’s. If someone wants to see more, it’s at

http://www.milehighreport.com/2008/5/7/481970/mhr-university-modern-3-4

HT rules! And, to be fair, Slowik has had to start these guys from nearly “this is a football”. I don’t agree with some of his calls, not that I know that much, but talent has been an issue. Our DL has been playing better, but we lack the personnel to play a Zone Blitz 3-4 and our DL personnel isn’t top level for either scheme, 4-3 or 3-4. Barrett looks like a big step up, but while I like Fox a lot, he’s not top tier either – our safeties have been awful for much of the year. Anyone want to argue that Webster is really a pretty talented MLB?

We need better personnel, we need better scheming. Both would help, whichever comes first.

Jim Goodman for Broncos MVP!

by Doc Bear on Dec 9, 2008 9:34 PM MST up reply actions

This is why I wrote the article

What bothers me is that we have this attitude that the defense is bad, and we can’t expect any better of them, but even when the offense is good, we can expect better. Our players aren’t so bad that we can’t hope for better. The offense DOES need to limit turnovers, but they aren’t the ONLY ones responsible for the turnover differential, and they aren’t the ONLY ones that can be expected to play better.

by jack_ on Dec 9, 2008 10:59 PM MST up reply actions

Bear,

I would take the opposite approach. I don’t think talent is a “problem” on our defense; however, I’d also acknowledge that we don’t have ‘elite’ talent at most positions either. If we had ‘elite’ talent then we could line up like the Giants or Titans and do very little to disguise our defense, only rush with the DL, and have success. However, since we don’t have elite talent, then I think the scheme has to get more creative and complex. Because we don’t have top-level talent we have to make up for it with a top-level scheme. Unfortunately we currently have neither.

GO BRONCOS!!!

by UnarmingMermaid on Dec 10, 2008 12:19 PM MST up reply actions

One more point...

I don’t think you have to run a 3-4 to have an unpredictable defense. You do need to be willing to occasionaly drop a D lineman into zone coverage and to blitz extensively with your LBs. Slowik does not like to Blitz and it contributes to the predictability of our defense. I lost more respect for our defensive playcaller, if that’s possible, when we went into a soft zone after taking the lead against KC. It makes me think that Slowik lacks the killer instict and bloodlust of the great DCs.

GO BRONCOS!!!

by UnarmingMermaid on Dec 10, 2008 12:27 PM MST up reply actions

Agree

I couldn’t believe it when they went into the “prevent you from winning” defense in the 3rd quarter. I’ve never understood why coaches want to change what has been working. If they aren’t scoring or moving the ball on us with any consistency in the first half, why change what you are doing in the second half?

I say step on their throats and don’t let up for 60 minutes!

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"Superman wears Peyton Hillis pajamas" - FlaBronco

by DesertBroncoFan on Dec 10, 2008 1:37 PM MST up reply actions

Slowik was known as a blitzing guy...

…before becoming our DC. I wonder what happened?

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Dec 11, 2008 3:20 PM MST up reply actions

Playcalling, Playcalling, Playcalling

We are moving in the right direction lately with how Slowik has been having Bly play more man-underneath so he can jump the ball more. They need to do the same thing with a healthy Baily and I guarantee more TO. The problem with this is that what Slowik is doing is working (thanks to finding personnel that is playing smarter and actually tackling).

I would be pleasantly surprised if Slowik gets a little more fiesty with the playcalling once we have a healthy Bailey, but I don’t predict it.

by sadaraine on Dec 10, 2008 3:36 PM MST up reply actions

TO (off + def) + Def + ST

I think defensive turnovers are very important, but not the whole story. The drive stats at Football Outsiders are pretty interesting. As of Week 13, Denver was first in the league in yards per drive, 4th in the league in drive success rate and 8th in the league in points/drive. We are next to last in average starting field position/drive. IMHO, this is a combination of spotty special teams and lack of defensive turnovers. We are also 29th in offensive turnovers/drive. This is clearly on the offense. Given these handicaps, it’s amazing that the discrepancy between yards and points is not greater. This offense would be truly scary if it could cut down on turnovers and we had just average special teams and defense.

by Snaggins on Dec 9, 2008 9:13 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

Snaggins

Thanks – I hadn’t seen those stats, and they put a lot into perspective

Jim Goodman for Broncos MVP!

by Doc Bear on Dec 12, 2008 11:47 AM MST up reply actions

It is more about the young team coming together than anything else.

Look at the adversity, based upon injury, and then you realize how the coaching,(which I have been hard on all season), has been stallworth, in getting new players ready to play! How many rookies have come in, and shined, and here we are, still kickin azz.

Sunday will show what we have been looking for, at this time, in the season! Or it will show that we are not ready!

Truth is, I think that the Kiddz, R ready!

Go Broncos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by metalman5050 on Dec 9, 2008 7:11 PM MST reply actions

A couple of things.

I agree with everyone that our points production has been held back by our special teams and defense not forcing turnovers. And I agree that most of the defensive problem has been personnel, or consistent personnel. However, I do not think you can blame Slowik.

Early in the season they tried working in the 3-4, but lack of execution from mental mistakes, and lack of personnel, especially at nose guard and safety, made that a pre-mature and failed experiment. However, the attempt showed that Slowik and Shanny understand that to have a really good defense they need the unpredictability of being able to effectively go to a 3-4 any time. However, they are a few players away, and an off-season and training camp of practice away from being able to execute it properly. A great scheme will suck if you don’t have the players or preparation time to execute it properly.

One final point on our scoring ranking. Remember those team points also include non-offense scoring (defense and special teams), of which we are very low. When you look just at offensive TDs, we are ranked like 5 or 6. Just another example of how stats can be misleading. We are also ranked like 2nd in plays over 20 yards. So other teams know how explosive our offense is.

by The Gun Young on Dec 9, 2008 10:29 PM MST reply actions

On the matter of defensive scoring

That’s what I was trying to get at when I was talking about field position. When your defense scores, it’s like the offense is getting the ball in the end zone. However, the defense’s role in points goes beyond just those that they actually score themselves- even if the defense DOESN’T score a touchdown, getting the ball on the opponents 20 yard line is at least a sure 3 points.

by jack_ on Dec 9, 2008 11:04 PM MST up reply actions

i agree with the slowick critics

rushing the same 4 down-linemen all day is ridiculous, but at least it’s 4. the 2-20 pass with the 3-man rush that went for 19 yards? what is that, already? and when we blitz once(5 guys), we get an incomplete pass on 3rd-down in the red zone. if we have speed on d, let’s use it, and force the play. i’m repeating myself from week 3, now. no pressure=no turnovers, so this will not improve this season. there is hope for next year, though

hear me, perpetrators of bread crime, your punishment is at hand.
taste my blintzkrieg!

by davecheffy on Dec 10, 2008 10:46 PM MST reply actions