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Some Things I Think I Know Regarding the Denver Broncos -- Part 1 - Peyton Hillis

Thoughts about the Broncos are constantly swirling around in my head, especially this time of year.  Anyone who has listened to MHR Radio knows this all too well.  Often I consider writing about them right here.  Most times my thoughts get covered by one of you guys and gals, the excellent members of MileHighReport.

Today, however, I figured I wanted to get some of this down on "paper".  I get the sense that much of what I am thinking is being tossed around the heads of several of you so let's get it out in the open.  With the Broncos on the doorstep of a divisional title, heading into another game week where the team has little chance of victory(or so we'll all hear all week) I figured now is as good a time as any to get some of these thoughts off my chest.

I'll break this up into several parts today.  First, my thoughts on the loss of Peyton Hillis...

Star-divide

Hope is not lost because of the injury to Peyton Hillis

Before you all lynch me for saying it, hear me out.  I loved what I was seeing from Hillis.  I loved the fact the Broncos were re-focusing on the running game.  I am a big proponenet of the running game, especially in the Mike Shanahan offense.  That said, Hillis' unfortunate injury should not derail our season.  We were winning games before and we should still be able to win games now.  Our success as of late has been more about a committment to running the ball in general not just who was running it.  The Oakland debacle is a prime example of that.

As a team, the Broncos are averaging 4.5 yards a carry.  That's amazing considering the Broncos have yet to have a running back reach 100 carries.  Injuries have obviously been a big part of that, but it shows the team has gotten production, when committed, from the running game.  That shouldn't change with the loss of Hillis.

Hillis was also a target in the passing game, but even that had diminished as his role in the running game increased.  After his 7 catch performance against the Dolphins, Hillis caight a total of 6 passes the next 4 games.  It's fair to say he wasn't a big part of the passing game, at least with Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler healthy.

I'm not saying the loss of Hillis isn't going to be felt, it will be.  Anytime you lose talented football players it hurts.  It isn't devastating, however.  The Broncos need to continue to commit to the running game to keep defenses from dropping back and waiting for Jay Cutler passes.  The personnel still exists on this team to get that done.

2 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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I won't be lynching you...

I’ve always believed that we will go as far as Cutler will take us. If he plays well, our running game benefits…if he plays poorly, our running game will suffer. It’s strange to say this, because in years past our passing game depended on how well our running game performed…in 2008, the opposite is the case.

Nice post Guru.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 9, 2008 7:54 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I do hate that we lost Hillis

The thing that worries me the most is that the coaching staff will see the loss of Hillis as a major setback and in reaction cutback on running the ball. I hope they keep hammering away with the running game and don’t give up on it because of this injury.

by Stuman on Dec 9, 2008 8:02 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so sure they will...

I think Shanny is like a kid in a candy shop when it comes to finding new star RBs. I think he’s got high hopes for C-Boyd.

Also, here’s a great quote about our RB situation from WalterFootball.com

If the mob wants someone to disappear, they should just ask Mike Shanahan to make that person his new starting running back.

Also, to Guru’s post, two points resonate. One, I think we’ve been amply reminded this season what a dominant offensive line means to a team as we continue “plug and play” new RBs on an almost weekly basis. Two, our personnel department has done a pretty good job evaluating talent (’08 draft class). I really hope this continues, especially as we rebuild our defensive line.

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Dec 9, 2008 8:45 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Sad, but true

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Dec 9, 2008 12:15 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I've been talking to Walter, but he doesn't think the Broncos have anything left to play for.....

Plus he has the Broncos ranked 18th, down two spots after its win over KC…

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 10, 2008 7:42 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree Guru and Zappa,

We’re witnessing a paradigm shift in the Broncos offense as we move into the Bates/Cutler pass-first era and away from the classic Kubiak/Elway era of run-first football. This offense is predicated on throwing the ball first. Hell, even with Hillis we ran him primarily out of 3wr sets against NYJ and out of the shotgun last week.

This is a classic example of a coach coaching to his strengths. Shanny has a young, innovative, pass-happy OC, a strong-armed, confident young QB, the best WR and TE tandems in the league, and the best pass-blocking O-Line in the league. Couple that with the lack of an every-down beast at RB, and it’s no wonder Shanny’s changed the identity of this offense.

Hillis was on his way to becoming that every-down beast, imo, and would have turned this offense into an unstoppable force down the stretch. It’s a bummer that that’s not going to happen, but it doesn’t mean all hope is lost. If Jay plays well, we can beat anyone, and if Jay lays an egg in the first round of the playoffs we’re one and done…

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Dec 9, 2008 9:28 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I still think we return to a run first oriented team....Cutler would be much more dangerous if teams were forced to look at our run game.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 9, 2008 11:03 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Time will tell...

Things would be a lot different if we have a dominate running back. Maybe Hillis is that guy next year, although I have a feeling he’ll be used as a multi-purpose player— I believe Shanny called it a “Tiger” position. Maybe a guy on our roster steps-up next year (Torrain? Boyd?), or we find a durable, every-down back in the draft, FA, or trade? Then it will be at least possible to return to a run-first approach.

However, I have the feeling Shanny with help from his new guard—The Goodmans and Bates— is gravitating towards a pass-first offense like the great NE and Indy offenses of this decade. The running game will be a huge part of it, as it was in NE and Indy, but in a secondary role. It’s a necessity now, but the off season moves and the early stages of the 2009 season will indicate whether this is a matter of circumstance or a paradigm shift.

I’m not saying this is a good thing or a bad thing, but if that’s where Shanny’s taking us, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Dec 9, 2008 11:29 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I would bank on Shanny spending a draft pick....or two....on a running back next year.

After the disaster of this year. At least we’ll have Selvin Young back before the playoffs start.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 9, 2008 12:32 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

All in favor..

Aye.

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Dec 9, 2008 12:35 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Clinton Portis

is angry in Washington. Just saying…

The Adventures of King Royal and Phyllis The Jester

by Greyson on Dec 9, 2008 9:09 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Shanahan should probably draft a medic instead of a RB

The future looks so bright that we're going to need blue and orange sunglasses!

by Arctic Bronco on Dec 9, 2008 9:16 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

After posting...

I read HT’s excellent MHRU article from February on the difference between the WCO and Spread offense (http://www.milehighreport.com/2008/2/23/192226/243), as he recommended to me Sunday in one of the open threads. It’s a great read and it cleared some things up for me.

So, to recast my prior comment, do you guys think there is any chance Shanny will move away from his WCO roots and implement a spread offense going forward due to a seemingly ideal personnel grouping (HT I believe I read a comment of yours that said Bates had a history in spread offenses as well)? Or do you think the Bates/Cutler incarnation WCO offense will feature the pass to larger extent than in the past to setup the essential “one cut” running lanes?

I’d bet on the latter, but it’s interesting to think of Shanny going to a spread offense due to his personnel.

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Dec 9, 2008 12:33 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the kind words.

I think we should involve the running game more. Even if we stay with the spread offense, there are several variants that involve a run heavy scheme (I think I might have covered that in the article). My issue with the pass happy type of spread that we are running is Cutler himself. Let me explain…

Cutler does a better job in 2 situations.

1) When he knows the defense is going to play over coverage to stop the big plays. Jay gets conservative (as he did against NYJ, TB, and NO) and makes smarter decisions.

2) When we run the ball more often. Teams have to account for the run game, and they are forced to thin their pass defenses to account for the run.

I think it is too hard to predict which way we go in playcalling. Both sides of the ball have stumped me this year. But whether we go West Coast or Spread Offense, I just hope we feature a strong running game, and I hope it features as least one power running back.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Dec 9, 2008 1:37 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

That's why I miss Hillis

I agree with Guru that all is not lost but liked having a back who always gained positive yardage. After he went out a number of our running plays were stuffed at the line. I can’t help thinking Hillis would have gotten three yards on those plays. He’s more decisive than Bell and he knocks people backwards. If there’s a good chance you’re going to get stuffed running the ball you might as well give yourself three chances rather than two to get ten through the air. I think that’s the psychology of us getting away from the run in the second half. If, however, you get at least three on first down a run on second will likely result
in either third and short or a new set of downs.

I’d like for us to have a thunder and lightning run game. It’s a shame we can’t put one or two scatbacks and one or two power backs on ice till someone gets hurt. Bell is prone to no gain three times and then 28 yards, but he’s what we’ve got and we’ll have to win with him. Thanks to Cutler I think we can. And in all fairness to Bell he’s come in this time with his head on straight and has worked hard and listened to the coaches. It seems to me he’s been more decisive and more conscious of getting up field rather than dancing around. One of the pass plays near the end, in which he caught a short pass, turned directly upfield and lunged for about nine yards, reminded me of Rod Smith. And I think he’ll be even better next week.

So we’ll manage without Hillis and his fallen predecessors, thanks to the brilliant play of our still-improving line. I think Jay’s continued maturation will make him more conservative (your point no. 1) and Bell’s continued improvement in seeing the cutback lanes and being decisive will lead to a more consistent ground game (point no. 2). But at the same time I’m excited about next year. We’re going to have an embarrassment of riches at running back even if we don’t draft anybody. Right now I see Hillis, Torain, and Young as the favorites, with Alridge stashed on the taxi squad.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Dec 9, 2008 8:21 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

The Broncos will have a running game

as long as the line opens holes. When they don’t open holes, there will be no running game. It doesn’t matter who is back there. When a RB loses yardage or runs for little or no gain, that is because defenders are there waiting for them.

Hillis can get those two, three, four extra yards that others can’t get, but Tater or whoever else is back there will still be able to run, based on what the O-line does. And Cutler and his awesome supporting cast in the passing game will take care of the rest.

Never argue with a fool, lest you take on his appearance. - my daddy

by AZDynamics on Dec 9, 2008 10:24 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I still think the loss of Hillis

is a huge blow for this team. Yes, they won football games before Hillis was even on the depth chart, but they won better games with him and it has given Jay the ability to throw the ball around more. Hillis is a guy that gives it everything he’s got and that’s what we needed. The team was vastly improved from previous weeks when the ball only went from Jay to a receiver. I’m not sold on Tatum Bell and I think the loss of Hillis really hurts. I think there’s a relationship between the revival of the running game and the new play of the offense.

I don’t think the season is a wash, but I do think that Hillis was one of the big positives for the offense these past couple of weeks. I don’t want to see the return of the “No Run” offense for the Broncos.

The Adventures of King Royal and Phyllis The Jester

by Greyson on Dec 9, 2008 11:02 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

What, me worry?

We started the year with a no-name stable of RBs and have been plugging them in as necessary. They’ve done an admirable job, and the 0-line has allowed for success, for the most part. We will continue to do that, as there is no choice. It’s all about the playoffs now. Never fear! I was glad to see Carolina win last night; maybe they will be a little complacent when the Broncos come to town. But don’t underestimate our team. I’m sure there are more surprises in store, since they are steadily improving. They can outscore the Panthers in a shootout, if necessary. If not, then we’re going after the Bills, cuz it’s all about the playoffs at this point in time.

"Be not like dumb-driven cattle...."

by jcps on Dec 9, 2008 12:36 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

What do you mean we were winning games before Hillis?

We weren’t winning games before Hillis. Before the Cleveland game, we went more than a month on the Calendar without a win. And since then, I can’t think of a single game we would have won without him.

I’m not saying we have to have to have HIM necessarily, but we have to have a solid running back, and unless Tatum Bell transforms this week, we don’t.

And I don’t see any reason to be optimistic about Hillis making a quick return when Selvin Young’s hamstring has been “not too bad, but still bothering me” for like 3 months now. Those things take a long time to heal.

by LosAngelesBronco on Dec 9, 2008 12:39 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

+1

Good point…we were winning before Selvin Young and Andre Hall went down….and after Hillis came in…..in between we stank up the place.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 9, 2008 1:06 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts on the Hillis loss.

1) I agree with Guru. We don’t have to have Hillis to win. If we can commit to the run, our excellent OL, and our HB’s coach, our system will help us move forward. I’m not saying that just any RB will do. I am saying that our system is a great fit for a one cut runner, and we can get by and still win.

2) At the same time, we are a much, much better team with Hillis. Hillis gives us several things we miss without him. We are better in short yardage, we can wear down defenses, we would run more knowing that Hillis can get the job done, and teams would have to move their LBs to the center, and not cheat SAFs outside, knowing the threat of a run up the gut. Opposing MLBs would also have to play close to scrimmage in man instead of back in a mid zone, because of the virtual assurance of at least a couple of yards Hillis gives us.

What I like about Hillis is that he makes the passing game more effective, and less risky for INTs. With his contribution to the time of possession battle, it would take a lot of pressure off of our defense.

Hillis is a major loss, but Guru is right. We’ll adapt, and we’ll overcome.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Dec 9, 2008 1:46 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

All good points

That’s basically what I was thinking when I replied to your other post.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Dec 9, 2008 8:27 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter if the OC calls a running play...

…if Cutler audibles it to a bootleg or 3 step drop and slings the ball where he feels he wants to sling it. =-)

"Darrell Hackney hooks up with Chad Jackson on a 63 yard pitch n' catch to put the Broncos up by 21. San Diego would add a late TD, but Denver was in total control. They finish 11-5 with the 3 seed and have a playoff home game against New England. Tom, who would have thought that Denver, loses to Oakland and K.C., but winds up the the # 3 seed!" "Well, when you look at the Denver Broncos, what stands out is that offensive line and Jay Cutler. If they're on, only Pittsburgh really has a shot at stopping that offense." - Week 17

by broncodude793 on Dec 9, 2008 4:24 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

lol +1

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08
Chiefs, Raiders, what’s the difference? It’s hard to see in the basement! - hoosierteacher 12/4/08

by Tim Lynch on Dec 9, 2008 4:49 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Guru,

I think that Denver’s system and their head coach (game planning, knowing when to run) can get around a 4.5 yard average with any young man that can run hard.

As long as 6 is back there, we’re good.

by Steve O' on Dec 9, 2008 5:13 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

The running game will be fine

if Boyd, Pinnock or even Larsen shows the opposing D that hey have to fear runs between the tackles. Perhaps it’s just a belief, but I think that one of the huge things about Hillis was the ability (and thanks to the MHR faithful one who put up the great stats chart) to consistently hammer out good yards up the middle.

Jim Goodman for Broncos MVP!

by Emmett Smith on Dec 9, 2008 5:41 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

HT

I was reading the comments section regarding the single wing. I think that we’ve talked about this, but is the wildcat type formation a varient on the single wing. There seem to be similarities

Jim Goodman for Broncos MVP!

by Emmett Smith on Dec 9, 2008 5:51 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I think

We’re putting our faith in unproven, undrafted players who we’ve never seen run the football. Torain, anyone? Hillis was a good back, better than Selvin Young and much better than Tatum Bell. We need someone like him, but I’ll hold my tongue until we see what the other backs can step up and do.

The Adventures of King Royal and Phyllis The Jester

by Greyson on Dec 9, 2008 6:17 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

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