I know how all of us have been talking about moving back in the first and getting an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick. But let's slow down and look at our options again.
I think everyone agrees that if we stay at #12 we will wither pick DE Harvey or OT Williams, two phenomenal talents. They can be huge difference makers on any team. So what would we do if we moved back? We all keep talking about how it will give us an extra pick, but we have never considered who we would pick once we trade down.
* If we move down to 15 to 20, we would be no better off than before. There are no DTs at this value. And there is a high chance that that both Williams and Harvey would be taken by the time our turn comes up (Harvey might not make it out of the top 10, and Harvery won't get past Carolina and Chicago). Who would we pick? Conner at LB? Not likely given our reloading season moves. RB? QB? CB? DE Merling? These are the options we would have from 15 to 20, and none are good. WR? All of them are too risky for a high pick. We might go with FS Phillips, but I think we can agree that we have to fix our lines first. He would have very limited impact as a rookie, while we need immediate help. Not to mention that he is a bit of a reach before 25.
Basically, we would be no better off between 15 to 20, and the compensation we get would be a mid 3rd round pick. Not a bad pick, but we need a higher impact player if we want to improve in 08.
* If we move down to between 21 t 30 then we would be better off. The compensation would be a mid to late 2nd round pick. There still isn't a DT we would want here (Balmer is limited as a pass rusher, but I still want a run stopping DT like him on this team. However, I would like him better in the 30s). Anyhow, given our two 2nd round picks after this trade, picking a RB or WR this early becomes an option. And the financial risk is much more limited. FS Phillips would likely still on the board too.
Along with the two 2nd round picks, we might be able to fill in some holes and improve the overall quality of the team. But we wouldn't be able to add a high impact player unless we get lucky or we pick a junior who still hasn't really shown his worth.
The extra 2nd round pick,
* So was it worth trading down? We have to consider the impact of whomever we pick after trading down to see if the trade was worth it.
Lets look at what we could get at #12:
- At DE we already have Doom, Crowder, and Moss. Crowder is solid, but not a pass-rusher. Doom is good, but limited (look at his total numbers, not just sacks). Moss maybe our only total-package DE--if he can get it together. So taking a top notch pass-rushing talent like Harvey is not a bad move at all. Even if our 3 current DE's elevate their game, the normal rotation of our D-line will allow us to use them all. After all, don't most DE's look worn out at the end of the game? Why not get enough depth to allow us to keep-up the pass rush all game long?
- Williams is simply the best pass blocker in this entire draft--that's a fact, not just potential. He is better at pass-pro than OT Brown was last year. The only knock on him is that he isn't a mauler in run blocking. But that is not an issue for us. We don't run behind OT. This is ZB system baby, we run between the O-linemen. So really, even his weakness is no weakness for us. And he is the type of talent we could never find late in the draft. As good as Matt Lepsis was, and as good as Pears might become, Williams is in another category.
- What would we get if we moved back to somewhere between 15 and 20? A player we don't want or a gross reach in the first and an extra 3rd round pick. Not a good move at all.
- What would we get if we moved back to somewhere between 21 and 30? A good skill player (RB, WR, or FS) and an extra 2nd round pick. We can add an OT and a DT in the 2nd round. Complement that with two picks in the 4th and we already have a good draft. Get two special teams players in the 5th, a punter or kicker in the 6th and we can gamble the two 7th round picks on the next Marcus Colston.
If we trade down, it should either be only 2 or 3 spots or more than 10 spots. Otherwise it might not be worth it.