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Mike Shanahan, The Broncos and The Draft, A Look Back -- 1999

In the 5th edition of my look back at each Broncos draft lead by Mike Shanahan and company I look at the final draft of the 20th century, and the second in a row for the Broncos following a World Championship.  It would be the first since 1982, however, that John Elway was not a part of the draft, or part of the Broncos, and the first time it really sunk in with me that #7 wouldn't be taking snaps on Sunday afternoons.

Let's take a look back at the 1999 draft, and how the Broncos fared to start the post-Elway era in Denver.

1st Round -- Pick 31(31) -- Al Wilson, LB(Tennessee) -- If Terrell Davis was the best pick made by Mike Shanahan to date, Wilson would have to qualify a close second.  Wilson was drafted with the final pick of the first round and immediately became the vocal and emotional leader of the defense.  Wilson played in all 16 games during his rookie campaign, and overall has played in 125 of 128 total team games since 1999.  Wilson became a 5 time pro bowler, impressive in its own right during a time with Ray Lewis, another AFC Linebacker getting all the publicity.  Wilson eclipsed the century mark in tackles 3 different seasons, and tacked on 25 sacks in his eight year career in Denver.  Wilson may have endeared himself for ever to Broncos fans for two specific hits he registered, one against Tyrone Wheatley in 2004, and the other against Deion Branch of the Patriots in 2005.  Wilson wasn't the biggest or most gifted athlete on the field, but he sure did play like it.  A defensive captain the past 6 years, Wilson was injured during a game against Seattle.  After being carried off the field with an apparent neck/back injury, Wilson returned to play the next week, before missing the season finale against the 49'ers.  His career as a Bronco came to an end on April 13, 2006, when he held a press conference thanking the fans and media for their support after the Broncos informed Wilson he would be released.  His future is still in doubt, with the severity of his neck injury still in question.  At this time Wilson has received medical clearance to play football but is still looking for a situation he finds to his liking.  No matter what, Al Wilson will be a fan favorite for Bronco Nation.

2nd Round -- Pick 27(58) -- Montae Reagor(Texas Tech) --Prior to the draft, the Broncos traded young offensive lineman Jamie Brown to the San Francisco 49'ers for the 27th pick in the 2nd round.  With it, the Broncos decided on Monte Reagor.  Reagor was a standout at Texas Tech, and the Broncos needed some bulk on the d-line, with Neil Smith and others cast off after the Super Bowl.  Reagor played well in spurts, but his problem was staying on the field.  In his four seasons in Denver, Reagor played in 45 of 64 games, and never seemed to be able to stay healthy in long stretches.  While playing 15 games for the Broncos in 2002 Reagor only netted 19 tackles.  After the 2002 season the Broncos allowed Reagor to find a new home, and did he ever.  Reagor signed with the Indianapolis Colts prior to the 2003 season and proved to everyone that he was simply a late bloomer.  Over the next three seasons Reagor played in 42/48 games posting career highs in virtually every stat, including a career high 5.5 sacks in 2005.  The 2006 season started strong for the Colts and Reagor until Week 6, when while driving to the RCA Dome to play the Redskins Reagor was seriously injured in a car accident.  So concerned were the Colts about the possibility that he wouldn't play again they decided to release him after the season.  Reagor signed a contract with the Eagles prior to the 2007 season and was the team's Ed Block Courage Award winner.

2nd Round -- Pick 30(61) -- Lennie Friedman, OL(Duke) -- Friedman seemed the perfect match for the Broncos zone blocking scheme, and for a while became a valuable contributor with the Broncos.  During his 4 seasons with the Broncos, Friedman started 22 games, including 14 in 2001.  His play was in-consistent at best, however, and like Reagor was allowed to leave after the 2002 season.  Friedman went on to the Redskins, where he continued to shift in and out of the starting lineup.  In 2005, Friedman officially entered journeyman status, signing with the Chicago Bears.  After not seeing any action in 2005, the Bears traded Lennie to the Cleveland Browns during training camp last year.  Friedman started two games for the depleted Browns in 2006, and recently was re-signed for the 2007 season.  Nothing more than a career back-up, Lennie has stayed in the league by simply playing anytime, anywhere.

3rd Round -- Pick 6(67) -- Chris Watson, CB(Eastern Illinois) -- The Broncos made another trade, this time sending QB Jeff Lewis to Carolina for this pick, as well as a 4th rounder in 2000.  The Broncos used this pick on Watson, a relatively unknown prospect out of Eastern Illinois.  Watson quickly made an impression, and by the end of the 1999 season was returning punts, even scoring on a punt return during the '99 season.  Watson made the All-Rookie team that season as a kick-returner, but there was something  Shanny didn't like.  In August of 2000, the Broncos traded Wilson to Buffalo as part of a package of draft picks, with one, ironically enough, being used by the Bills to select RB Travis Henry, now a member of the Broncos.  Watson went on to play 3 seasons in Buffalo, before heading to Detroit where injuries curtailed his career.   Watson retired after being released by the Green Bay Packers in 2004.

3rd Round -- Pick 32(93) -- Travis McGriff, WR(Florida) -- The Gators have never been known for their receivers, but that didn't stop the Broncos from taking McGriff in the third round.  McGriff became another third round bust for Denver, catching 5 passes for one TD.  All was not lost for McGriff, however.  After spending the 2002 season in Atlanta, doing nothing, McGriff followed the footsteps of Marcus Nash into the Arena League, becoming a solid receiver for Orlando and Nashville.  That career came to an end after the 2005 season.

4th Round -- Pick 32(127) -- Olandis Gary, RB(Georgia) -- The Broncos tried to catch Georgia lightning in a bottle for the second time in selecting little known Gary from Georgia.  It didn't take long for it to appear the Broncos were writing a sweet sequel to the Terrell Davis story when Gary filled in for the injured Davis, rushing for 1159 yards in only 12 games that rookie year.  With Davis still struggling the next season, Gary was primed and ready to become a star when disaster struck.  On the 14th carry of the season, Week 1 in St' Louis, Gary broke his leg and missed the year.  Though he attempted to return to form in 2001 and 2002 he was never really able to recapture the explosiveness that made him so effective.  Buffalo signed Gary after the 2002 season, then promptly traded him to Detroit.  It was there that Gary would end his career, rushing for only 384 yards in 2003.  Gary was placed on injured reserve then released in September 2004.

5th Round -- Pick 25(158) -- David Bowens, DE(Western Illinois) -- If you draft someone from Eastern Illinois you have to draft a player from Western Ill. as well, and that's exactly what the Broncos did, selecting Bowens.  Truth be told, Bowens had carved out a nice career for himself and remains a serviceable player to this day.  After playing in 15 games for the Broncos his rookie season the team seemed to sour on him, trading him to the Packers for a 2007 7th Round selection.  After one decent year in Green Bay, Bowens was signed by the Dolphins were, playing opposite Jason Taylor, he enjoyed his greatest success, culminating in a 7-sack, 46 tackle season in 2004.  Bowens plans on playing in 2007, recently signing a contract with the New York Jets.

5th Round -- Pick 34(137) -- Darwin Brown, CB(Texas Tech) -- Unfortunately, there just isn't much out there about Brown, which probably means he didn't make the team out of training camp.  Anyone who would like to add something about Darwin Brown, feel free to do so.

6th Round -- Pick 10(179) -- Desmond Clark, TE(Wake Forest) -- The Broncos traded a 5th round pick to Washington for a 6th and 7th round selection, the first being Desmond Clark.  Early on it looked like Clark was going to be the heir apparent to Shannon Sharpe in the Broncos offense.  Like Sharpe, Clark was once a wide receiver in college, and possessed great hands.  Unlike Sharpe, Clark didn't take well to Shanny's request that you have to block as well, and in Shanny's world, do what you're told or be gone, and after 2001, a season in which Clark caught 51 passes, with 6 TDs, Clark was not re-signed.  Injuries followed Clark to Miami, and after a dismal 2002 season he was signed by the Chicago Bears.  In Chicago, Clark has been a steady player, averaging 34 catches and 3 TD per season.

6th Round -- Pick 35(204) -- Chad Plummer, QB(Cincinnati) -- The Broncos selected a QB in the 6th round, though his stay in Denver didn't last very long.  Plummer was an option QB at the University of Cincinnati, and the idea was to turn him into a receiver.  It didn't work.  After being released by the Broncos in training camp, Plummer spent the next two seasons in Indy and Cincinnati before calling it quits.

7th Round -- Pick 12(218) -- Billy Miller, TE(USC) -- Miller came out as another of those tweener types, too big to be a WR, a bit too soft to be a true TE.  Miller showed flashes of brilliance during his career, most notably after his time in Denver when he was signed by the expansion Houston Texans.  Miller actually caught the first touchdown in Texans history during a pre-season game against the Cowboys.  Miller's production gradually went down, leading to his release after the 2004 season.  Miller was out of football in 2005, returning to the NFL in 2006 with the New Orleans Saints.  In limited action, Miller caught 14 passes for 192 yards in New Orleans.

7th Round -- Pick 32(238) -- Justin Swift, TE(Kansas State) -- Swift became the third straight TE selected by Shanahan in the 1999 draft, and like the other two, didn't last very long in the blue and orange.  Swift's only real action came with the San Francisco 49'ers where he caught 22 passes for 137 yards and a TD in three seasons in NoCal.  He ended his career in 2003 with the Detroit Lions.


Guru's Take -- The 1999 draft is a hard one to judge.  There are some players there, guys that have stood the test of time, just not with Denver.  Obviously, Al Wilson is a stud and the star of the class.  Montae Reagor went on to become a solid player, as did David Bowens.  Who knows what could have happened if Olandis Gary stayed healthy.  In the end, it is the late first day picks that make or break a draft.  As has become all too familiar, the Broncos swung and missed with both of their third round selections, Chris Watson and Travis McGriff.  Those are the picks that drain the depth of a franchise, and weaken the special teams (ahem!).  Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins, the Broncos went back-to-back in draft stinkers.

Guru's Grade -- C-

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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No I think you are grading too tough. lol
This draft brought Al Wilson baby.  It's gotta be at least a B-!!! :)

by Tim Lynch on Apr 18, 2008 7:52 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

And Al Wilson...
brought us exactly how many playoff wins?  How Many Championships??

Al was a great Bronco, but Pro Bowl appearances alone do not make a draft....

by John Bena on Apr 18, 2008 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

All I am saying is that
we may not have gotten to the few playoff games we got to without Big Al leading our defense.  Look how far we have fallen since he departed.  Plus we had Olandis Gary in there, he was a good pick...just got injured.  Monte Reagor is average. Ok, C+ then.  :)

by Tim Lynch on Apr 18, 2008 8:50 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

C
How about we stick it in the C range and call it a deal?

by phantom818 on Apr 18, 2008 8:59 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or not tough enough...
Look at all of those picks, and at how high they are, and we only got one right?  Compare that to the number of picks and how high they are this year, and I won't be happy if only one pick works out well.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Apr 18, 2008 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

A C-??????
I have to say that giving this draft a c- because it didn't give us play-off wins or championships is a bit unreasonable in my opinion.

First the draft picked a star player and some starters and some back-ups. Any team would be happy to net that kind of production from a draft. That's a great draft it's the development of the players afterward that was sub-par.

This is an important point because it helps if we can accurately identify the problem before we can talk about solutions. The problem isn't that the Broncos can't draft talent it's that they are to quick to let their draft picks go. If we all come to this realization I think it will help still all those voices who give players a pre-season game or a year and then start calling them a bust.

Next I think it's unreasonable because there's no comparison to what a team can typically expect from a draft. How many teams realistically think that one  draft is responsible for a play-off win? Or worse yet for a championship? It's just not a good standard for evaluating a draft. Games started, years as starter pro-bowls, all pros these things can tell us in part how much a draft helped out a team.

If we can't look at something a little more objective then we didn't win the super bowl so we had lousy drafts we are always going to be frustrated with the direction the team is going in except for those rare years when you actually win the Super Bowl.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 18, 2008 9:06 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

It's alot more than the Super bowl...
I was just saying to Zappa that a Draft isn't going to get a B because 1 guy, the first rounder, the guy YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS ON, became a fan favorite and worked out.

Teams like SD, NE, PITT and INDY are at the top now because they hit homeruns throughout the draft.  My explanation for the grade says it best --

The 1999 draft is a hard one to judge.  There are some players there, guys that have stood the test of time, just not with Denver.  Obviously, Al Wilson is a stud and the star of the class.  Montae Reagor went on to become a solid player, as did David Bowens.  Who knows what could have happened if Olandis Gary stayed healthy.  In the end, it is the late first day picks that make or break a draft.  As has become all too familiar, the Broncos swung and missed with both of their third round selections, Chris Watson and Travis McGriff.  Those are the picks that drain the depth of a franchise, and weaken the special teams (ahem!).  Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins, the Broncos went back-to-back in draft stinkers.

It's missing in the mid to late rounds that kills the depth of a football team and are the biggest factor in a draft grade, at least to me.

by John Bena on Apr 18, 2008 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh god...
...1st rounder that you can't afford to miss on...

I am thinking about the upcoming stretch of years in your series...

I think I'm gonna be sick...

I wish my sig was as cool as mdierks!

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 18, 2008 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can we skip this series from 2000-2003?
I will be very upset if you give any of those drafts anything higher than an F.  Styg is right, I am going to be sick through the next few posts.

by Tim Lynch on Apr 18, 2008 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had read what you wrote.
That doesn't change the fact that you are wrong in your evaluation of the problem. Let me repeat I'm not saying that the personnel management was good, I am saying that the problem wasn't the draft it was retaining the players that we got.

As far as your point about not hitting on the later round players it's just plain off. There were 192 people drafted in rounds 3-7 in 1999. Of those 192 there has been one all pro-year, and 13 pro-bowl appearances. For an average of .0052 all-pro years per pick, and .068 pro-bowl appearances per pick. None of those were ours but considering the small percentages that's to be expected.

The 192 total picks averaged .37 years as the primary starter for their team. Our seven picks averaged one year as the primary starter for their team.

The 192 total picks averaged 18.2 games played in the NFL, our picks 64.29.

So you can see that in the mid to late rounds we did significantly better than average, with almost three times the amount of starting times and 3.5 more games started.

So let's not be so quick to criticize the draft when it's our inability to hold on to players that's the real problem. You may be lumping them all in together but as I've stated there are good reasons for being specific about what the actual problem is.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 18, 2008 11:12 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

My mistake
There should be 9 picks, for a .78 starting years per pick, and 60 games per pick. Still significantly higher than the league average. The mistake doesn't affect the league average number because that was a different draft query. Also, I got my info from http://www.pro-football-reference.com which is certainly worth checking out.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 18, 2008 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

To me...
Retention is a BIG PART of it, especially in Denver where Shanny makes those decisions.  If he was just the coach, no say on whether or not the team kept a guy, I would partly agree with you.  But when I see a team like the Giants make 7 draft picks in 2007, and ALL SEVEN play significant roles in winning a Super Bowl, that is an effective draft.

We can agree to disagree, and if you'd prefer to give them a C instead of a C- feel free, but this team is in the situation it is in, has been so reliant on free agents, because of draft shortcomings.

This team has not drafted well, plain and simple, and as I continue on with the series it will become more evident.

by John Bena on Apr 18, 2008 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

And besides....
You can't really judge a draft until 3-4 years later.  If only one guy is still on the team in 4 years how can that draft be considered a success??

by John Bena on Apr 18, 2008 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll tell you how
First because you look back over those four years and see what the draftees produced for the team. It isn't just about how many guys you have on the team after four years it's about what they did for the team in those four years. The average NFL career really isn't that long so to say that we got some good years out of some guys in 1999 can make a draft a success.

Next it isn't about comparing that draft to some arbitrary standard. How many players were still with the team that drafted them in 1999? If that was a bad year for the draft having Al Wilson may have been way above average. To just throw a number out their and say this is bad without any kind of context is very sloppy thinking.

Next if you are going to look at retention and it's effects then you also have to give Shanahan credit for the guys that get brought in. It's incredibly unfair to say that he didn't do well in FA because he lost all these guys when you don't look at the guys he brought in.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 18, 2008 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even a c would be way too low
We will have to disagree about retention. Of course since you never responded to my points about why that should be separated I have to wonder if posting here even has a point.

I also don't think I'm getting through to you about the real quality of the 1999 draft. To compare it to the Giants in 2007 is truly an apples to oranges comparison. Having all your draftees contribute is an unrealistically high expectation. It's this kind of standard that causes people to give out grades that are completely out of touch with reality.

Furthermore it causes people to give up on players far to soon. When that happens they start to complain and when they complain the front office and owners react by doing something which generally involves cutting someone too quickly in order to appease the fans. Or because they have been accustomed to reacting they cut a guy too quickly to keep the fans from complaining in the first place.

All of this is just a self fulfilling prediction then when someone like you starts grading a draft on retention and not on the players picked. We should be complaining that they aren't giving people enough time. Ultimately because the fans vote with their dollars they do impact the team policies.

Bowlen came out and said that he's the one who rights the checks so he's the one in charge. I believe that's true. So lets complain that Shanahan cuts people to quickly, so the next time he wants to give up on a Hixon, Bowlen does something about it.

Not drafting well is only part of the problem and in 1999 it wasn't even a problem at all.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 18, 2008 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

We simply..
disagree about how best to build a football team.  During the season I broke down how the Broncos "were built" compared to the way the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Patriots.  The percentage of Broncos draft picks still on the team from 2000-2004 for the Broncos was substantially lower than the other 4 teams.  I chose those years because I believe that is when the true value of a draft shows itself.  I refuse to believe that the Broncos struggles now have nothing to do with the fact they failed in the draft from 2000-2004.  You can see that here.  Consider it my answer to your points you feel I "ignored" above.

If a player enters his prime 3-4 years after being drafted (26-28 years old), those drafts would now be reaping the optimum reward.

I will agree that the Giants draft was a bit extreme and they were very fortunate.  But I refuse to simply look at a draft and grade it because the players drafted went on and had success elsewhere.  Poor personnel management is poor personnel management.  

Like I said, I value your opinion and your value to the site.  We just have a disagreement in regards to the value of who you draft and keeping those picks.  If you aren't retaining your draft picks, then you are building a team through Free Agency.  That never works.

by John Bena on Apr 18, 2008 6:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

*sigh*
I never said anything about how a team should be built. All I was talking about was how to fairly grade a draft. I even pointed out that I thought it was poor personnel management that we let so many guys go.

If you judge on retention then to be fair you have to look at the entire reason they were released. Who was brought in to fill their spot, makes a big difference about the wisdom of the decision.

Further if you just compare it to some extraordinary draft were all of the players stayed that's not fair either. Compare it to what an average team got out of that same years draft. Otherwise you just feed every fans unreasonable thought that our 7th rounders should be going to the pro-bowl.

by Fan in Exile on Apr 19, 2008 6:41 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

We agree to disagree...
Because I grade a draft differently than you doesn't make me wrong, just like I won't claim you are wrong.  Just different opinions.  To me, the proof is in the results.

You can disagree, that's fine, but in my opinion, poor drafts are the main reason this team has struggled all but one season since 1999.  And before you react to that by saying the Broncos have been to the playoffs 4 times in those 9 years I'll warn you that I don't consider first round playoff blowouts as a success.  That's Kansas City's job.

by John Bena on Apr 19, 2008 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fan in Exile
The point you make about retention is actualy a large part of Guru's point.  If you go back in the archives, you'll read that Guru's big gripe about our draft picks is that we either bust or get players who don't end up playing for us.

I do think our recent three drafts have been better, but there was a period where we drafted players that didn't play for us, either because they sucked for all time or sucked long enough to move on to other teams.  Either way, the drafts didn't end up helping us.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Apr 18, 2008 12:02 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea. I just read through all that
and I am sitting here wondering where the disagreement was. They seem to be arguing different sides of the same coin. Or maybe its just late and I am tired....Goodnight. :)

by Tim Lynch on Apr 20, 2008 1:24 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The value of the picks needs to be established
I think that each draft picks' value to the team, measured in both on field contributions AND future draft picks obtained when traded needs to be taken into consideration.  The Broncos received draft picks for most of the 1999 picks that played for other teams.  

In some situations they didn't have roster spots available and got more value from trading than cutting.  For example, Desmond Clark was one of several good TEs, they were wise to get a pick for him.  I am not sure who they used that pick on, but that action is another indicator of the overall value of a draft and needs to be accounted for.

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 20, 2008 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, the pick for Clark produced nothing
Ooops, I forgot that the Broncos didn't get a pick for Clark (:  Oh well, no need to let facts confuse the issue :)

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 20, 2008 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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