Roster Breakdown - a final look before the draft

by MattR on Apr 22, 2008 1:50 PM MDT Comment 6 comments

Here's one last look at the state of the roster before the draft. Denver has 9 draft picks and will probably add 3 or 4 free agents during or right after the draft. So I am guessing three or four guys will get cut before the draft to make room on the roster, although I guess they could wait and see if they make any trades during the draft that open up a roster spot(s). Denver will have to cut another set of players in July when they sign the rookie draftees.

Based solely on roster numbers, Denver needs to add a kicker and a punter/kicker. They need to add at least 2 DT, 1 OT and one other OL. Based on talent and contract situations, I will guess that Denver adds a DB and at least one more DL, possibly two. They will also add some type of offensive skill position player (RB/WR), possibly 2 as well as possibly another offensive lineman. That makes for 6 "definite" and 3 "likely" additions and 3 "possiblities" for a total of 12. This matches up pretty well with the 12-13 players that I project them adding.

I thought about trying to predict how it will all break down, but this season is tougher than most to read. Nonetheless, I will throw a few things out there. Denver trades a 4th/5th and 6th/7th for D-Rob. They use a 6th/7th on a P or K. They use one 4th rounder on a DT and a 4th/5th rounder on a OL. They will sign a free agent P or K (whichever is not drafted). And to fill the last "definite need" Denver will either sign a free agent or use a first day pick. Assuming they sign a free agent, Denver would have filled the "definite" needs while keeping 4 picks for other needs (1st, 2nd, 4th/5th, 7th). With those "extra" picks, nothing short of drafting Matt Ryan would surprise me. But I do think Denver has the flexibility to take the players they want (best player available or biggest improvement over the current roster or whatever) on the first day knowing that they should be able to fill their remaining needs later in the draft.

Pos	Min	Curr	My #	Locks	Probable	Looks Good for now	Still on the Bubble
QB	4	4	2 of 4	Jay Cutler Patrick Ramsey			Darnell Hackney Cullen Finnerty
RB	6	8	5 of 7	Travis Henry Selvin Young Andre Hall Cecil Sapp	Mike Bell		Marquis Weeks Steven Jackson Paul Smith
WR	8	10	8 of 9	Brandon Marshall Keary Colbert Brandon Stokely Glenn Martinez Darrell Jackson Sammie Parker	Taylor Jacobs Edell Shepherd	Marquay McDaniel	Cliff Russell
TE	6	6	5 of 6	Daniel Graham Tony Scheffler Nate Jackson Chad Mustard Mike Leach		Brett Pierce
OL	13	11	9 of 13	Tom Nalen Ben Hamilton Casey Wiegmann Montrae Holland Chris Kuper Ryan Harris Erik Pears	PJ Alexander Ian Snell	Mark Fenton Norm Katnik
DE	7	10	6 of 9	Jarvis Moss Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder Ebenezer Ekuban John Engelberger	Kenny Peterson		Larry Birdine Julian Jenkins Nic Clemons Paul Carrington
DT	7	5	4 of 7	Alvin McKinley Marcus Thomas Steven Harris	Josh Mallard	Michael Bozeman
LB	8	9	6 of 8	DJ Williams Boss Bailey Niko Koutouvides Jamie Winborn	Nate Webster Louis Green	Jordan Beck	Brandon Archer William Kershaw
CB	6	6	4 of 6	Champ Bailey Dre Bly	Dominique Foxworth Karl Paymah	Lamont Reid	Christian Morton
S	6	8	4 of 6	John Lynch Marlon McCree Marquay McDaniel Hamza Abdullah		Rod Rogers Marviel Underwood	Steve Cargile Vickiel Vaughn
P	2	2	2 of 3	Sam Palescu	Danny Baugher
K	2	1	1 of 2	Matt Prater
	75	80	56 of 80	44	12	9	15

Some notes on the chart.
The min column are the minimum values taken from my previous diaries. They add up to 75 of the 80 spots.
(The darker rows in that column are ones I project the Broncos will bring over the min to camp)
The "My #" is the number of "Locks"+"Probables" then my guess for the number brought to camp.
(ie. "3 of 5" means that there are a combination of three players who are locks or probable and the team will bring 5 guys to camp)
Anyone with any doubt went into the "Bubble" column.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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I wonder when Shanny will be done

beating the Nate Jackson horse to death. Has he ever stayed healthy through an entire season?

I totally agree with your assessment on our needs. I also think Steve Cargile might edge out the other 4 guys on that end of the chart of safety. And isn’t Paul Smith a pretty good special teamer? I recall that was the main reason we signed him and Steve Jackson…but then again our Special Teams unit sucked ass last year, so maybe you are right to put them on the bubble. ;)

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by Tim Lynch on Apr 22, 2008 4:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree....

Cargile is a special teams ace. So is Paul Smith. So is Jordan Beck. These are guys that aren’t on top of their positional depth charts but who provide value as special teamers and as such will probably get the nod over other players who don’t offer the same two-phase value.
I do disagree about Jackson – I think (flashing back to what HT was arguing with the Magic-3) that a single back set with Graham, Scheffler, Jackson, and Marshall would be very, very difficult to defend against whether running or play-action passing. If nothing else, Jackson provides a decent insurance policy if Scheffler gets injured.

"The angel is no more than the shark well-governed." -Herman Melville

by jadunn on Apr 22, 2008 9:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't affect your final numbers

but I believe Foxy is off the market.

So is it time to set up a 24 square betting board for the next players to be cut?

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 22, 2008 7:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't it be like playing BINGO

with all those no names on the bubble lists?? lol

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by Tim Lynch on Apr 22, 2008 7:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just recommended my first post!

right on. MattR, you deserved it. :)

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by Tim Lynch on Apr 22, 2008 7:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, Appreciated.

You were correct above about Paul Smith and special teams. Not so sure about why the team signed Steven Jackson this offseason. I put Smith on the bubble since he does not contribute anywhere other than ST (as compared to Jordan Beck who I think can be a backup LB)

I will guess that a LB, DE and RB will be cut by the end of the weekend.

by MattR on Apr 22, 2008 7:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs