Denver vs. Kansas City spring game
I love MHR for the high quality on analysis and opinion, thanks to all. Draft grades and prospect rating are flawed, but I still search them out. I may no claim to football smarts, other than as a fan since Little Calvin Jones was diving at everyone's shoes. This is my first completed post more for fun then serious analysis.
Most pundits think that the Chiefs had a great draft, and the Broncos fall somewhere in the middle or worse. Of course the Chiefs had six picks in the top 82 and made their seventh before most of us had ever tried to pronounce Lichtenstiger early in the 4th round. KC finished with twelve picks to Denver's nine.
Pro Football Weekly grades the prospects before the draft giving most first round picks a grade between 6.0 and 7.0, most of the rest of the players drafted fall into the 5.0 to 5.9 range. SI.com does a similar grading, but their scores are lower mostly in the 3.0 to 3.9 range.
This is a look at how Denver and KC 's picks compare. I’ve matched up as best as I could each teams picks at the same or similar position.
Team - Pick Name Position Grade 1 Grade 2
Den 1-12 Clady, Ryan OT PFW 6.3 SI 4.24
KC 1-15 Albert, Branden G PFW 6.4 SI 3.92
I’m tempted to give the Broncos a slight advantage (probably my bias), but also because Denver drafted a pure OLT while KC drafted a OG that they may convert to a OT. OLT has higher value, but both are top 15 picks.
Advantage: Even
KC 1-5 Dorsey, Glenn DT 7 4.42
Den 5-148 Powell, Carlton DT 5.15 3.5
Clearly there is no comparison, Dorsey has bad knees and will be out of the league in a couple years, and Powell will be an anchor on the line for a decade.
Advantage: KC
Den 2-42 Royal, Eddie WR 5.65 3.67
KC 4-105 Franklin, William WR 5.39 3.62
KC 6-182 Robinson, Kevin WR 5.09 3.06
Of the three, Royal is the highest rated by both PFW and SI.
Advantage: Denver
KC 2-35 Flowers, Brandon CB 5.95 3.85
Den 4-119 Williams, Jack CB 5.23 3.52
An interesting side note Royal and Flowers know each other very well from daily match-ups at VaTech. Flowers is a fierce hitter and a quality corner, he is not the fastest, but still…
Advantage: KC
KC 3-73 Charles, Jamaal RB 5.55 3.82
Den 5-139 Torain, Ryan RB 5.12 3.37
The scores say the Charles is the better back, those who follow the Big 12 know Jamaal is a fumbler. I expect that Torain ends up being the more productive back. Why did KC draft two running backs in the third round? Is Larry Johnson ever going to be the same since his foot injury and swollen wallet?
Advantage: Denver
KC 3-82 Morgan, DaJuan RB 5.85 3.79
Den 7-227 Hillis, Peyton FB 5.23 3.49
I love the Hillis pick and the many facets he brings, but to be fair I have to give the …
Advantage to KC
Den 6-183 Larsen, Spencer ILB 5.2 3.38
KC 7-210 Johnston, Brian DE 4.8 3.49
Both may or may not make their teams, probably practice squad types. PFW likes Larsen, SI rates Johnston higher. It’s difficult to compare a backup Mike and a long shot DE
Advantage: Even
Den 4-108 Lichtensteiger, Kory C 5.3 3.37
KC 6-170 Richardson, Barry OT 5.2 3.41
Once again a split decision, both are youthful depth types. I pick K-Lic, due to the history of Bronco development of the OL from deep in the draft.
Advantage: Denver
KC 5-140 Carr, Brandon CB 4.9 3.27
Den 7-220 Barrett, Josh SS 5.37 3.73
Barrett is a nice pickup for the seventh round and is given higher scores.
Advantage: Denver
KC 3 76 Cottam, Brad TE 5.55 3.63
KC 7 239 Merritt, Mike TE 4.3 N/A (2.8)
Tony G’s days are numbered but he’s not very worried about these two, Cottam has been injured more then all of Denver's picks combined. Merritt stock is so low SI didn’t give him a grade, so I gave him a 2.8. Denver didn’t draft a TE so I must give the slight …
Advantage to KC
So in summary,
OT - Even
DT – KC
WR - Denver
CB - KC
RB - Denver
RB/FB - KC
DE/LB - Even
C/OT - Denver
DB - Denver
TE – KC
Finally I took all the scores and divided by the number of picks for each team to get an average score for the teams draft grade. The results …
Denver - PFW 5.39 and SI 3.59 KC - PFW 5.49 and SI 3.59
KC wins by a only tenth of a point! KC looks like they have 3 of the best 4 with Dorsey, Albert and Flowers, but Denver had a much more solid second day to catch up statistically.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
3 recs |
21 comments
Comments
A lot of work there...
...and an interesting take!
I think you’ve done a good job with comparing the picks, but it is so difficult to do. For instance, I agree with you that Torain (can we call him “The Train”?) is a better fit for Denver than Jamaal is for KC, despite the higher grades given to Jamaal by the publications. But value is so hard to compare when you factor in team needs and different positions. I might disagree with you on the result of comparing Hillis to Morgan. As the 227th pick, I think the FB brings a lot of impact to the Denver offense, while the much higher ranked (and graded) Morgan (even at 82) looks to have less chance of an impact for KC.
My hat is off to you. I wouldn’t have tried this feat with so many swirling factors, and I think the way you went about it makes more sense than anything I could come up with. Given the work you’ve put in, what do you think about the following:
Who were the best drafters this year? Where would you have Denver ranked? What grade would you give Denver?
Also worth noting is a poll on MHR where the members give Denver a pretty high rating. I ranked us at about B-, which I consider a good and solid job, but most members think we did even better. The more I look at our picks the more optimistic that I get (except for J Williams, whom I still can’t see as a fit).
Again, great job!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Apr 29, 2008 3:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Denver get's a B+ and so does KC
I think the second through forth rounds could have been stronger. I wanted more beef on the lines, a triple on the OL and at least a double at DT, hold the pickle. Kansas City’s got off track I thought in the third round and faded in the last two rounds. Tampa took a few player I was hoping Denver would in Zuttah and Dre Moore, but Talib isn’t that good IMO. I also thought the Giants did well, but I’m really only giving impressions as I look over mostly unknown names to me.
I almost gave Hillis the nod over Morgan but I was purposely cooking the stats and opinions to make the results as even as possible.
by DBinKC on Apr 29, 2008 5:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Solid...
first post, DB. Welcome aboard!
-TSG
www.milehighreport.com
by John Bena on Apr 29, 2008 5:39 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
They may be few and far between, but I’ll help keep an eye on the Missouri Indians. One part of their draft analysis I wish I had included is they traded their best player, Jared Allen, at 24 or 25 years old and drafted a DE in the 7th to replace him.
by DBinKC on Apr 29, 2008 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis...
I also think Denver’s draft was a under the radar good draft. I can’t wait to see how it all comes together!
by Tim Lynch on Apr 29, 2008 8:01 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Compared to some other folks, my first posts here were pretty sub-par! :o)
I’m a numbers geek, so I like this approach DB. It is impossible to completely rate a draft the day after, but averaging a couple sources does an excellent job of cutting through the hyperbole out there!
And after hitting (at least, we assume so) on the first two picks, I’m quite happy with any rating in the B range. If Denver had landed a few “B” drafts in the early part of this decade/century/millenium, the team would be in much better shape today!
~Uffdah
by Disco_Stu on Apr 29, 2008 8:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
A rough draft I never sent
I almost sent a post Friday looking at the average years experience of each starter and backup for Denver. Center was oldest by far but I found in second or third that CB is aging with Champ and Bly at 10 and Paymah and Foxworth at 4. (Safety is the other) So I am glad they have added a high pick at CB.
by DBinKC on Apr 29, 2008 4:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uffdah!
Are you by any chance from Minnesota/North Dakota?
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
T. Jack
by Trinidad Jack on Apr 29, 2008 8:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
North Dakota
originally…but my family moved away when I was two. Some things stick, however. :o)
~Uffdah
by Disco_Stu on Apr 30, 2008 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uffdah right back at you.
I’m not from there but went to law school at good old UND in Grand Forks. Great place to be a hockey fan. During those years the Fighting Soiux won the NCAA’s in hockey and team USA won the Olympics. M-m-m-m, good stuff.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Apr 30, 2008 4:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work...
it’s tough to level the playing field. I still think that judging a draft is impossible for 2 years, minimum. All you can look at is your teams’ weakest positions and see if the team tried to address them. Glenn Dorsey, by all accounts is one of the best players in the draft, but he could also be out of football in 3 years, while Jack Williams could be the best corner in the AFC in 5 years. We won’t know how good (or how bad) these guys are until the play against professionals.
In regards to nicknames, I think a discussion is sorely needed, HT. I vote that we call Koutouvides “The Grecian Formula”, seeing as “The Greek” has already been taken by the Steve Antonopolous.
by super7 on Apr 29, 2008 11:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I say we call him Achilles
and hope that he has no weakness. :P
by phantom818 on Apr 29, 2008 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post! It looks like you had fun doing it...creative idea too, but...
DaJuan Morgan is a FS out of NC State and not a RB (hopefully we did not upset the one NC State fan in here with that). I honestly think he might just be a little better than Barrett, so that could throw things off in your game of numbers.
by phantom818 on Apr 29, 2008 11:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
My bad on DaJuan
I used CBS sportsline as a source. http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/draft/504763 They have a FS write up under a RB title. I’ve liked CBS for the depth of the player profiles, maybe I should of read his.
by DBinKC on Apr 29, 2008 4:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's cool
does that do anything to the ratings? I’d say KC still has an advantage, and it’d probably be a little higher than you had it? I’d say they’d have a little better DB with Morgan added. However, I like the point you made about Denver picking up the slack in the late rounds of the drat with two “steals” really late.
by phantom818 on Apr 29, 2008 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
the biggest equation in all of the analysis is who is
leading the teams. Shanny has been able to squeeze out more effort from a player than what Herm can.
fader nation is a conquered nation
by mdierk on Apr 29, 2008 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd still call it even
KC gave up Jared Allen for three of these picks, so if you factor in the loss of their star pro-bowl DE, then maybe Denver comes out ahead. Truly only time will tell.
by DBinKC on Apr 29, 2008 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now step back...
When you have six picks in the first 3 rounds (compared to 2) you probably win that battle. However, you don’t get any W’s in April.
KC was the only team Denver didn’t have troubles with last year and they got rid of their best player. I don’t think 12 rookies and Brody Croyle are going to be carrying Vince Lombardi around AZ next February.
If a coach or GM or both is judged on SI draft ratings or Mel Kiper then Shanahan should have been fired a long time ago. I can handle a 7-9 rebuilding year once a decade, it happens to the best of them but Shanny will never win a draft rating contest with a 4-12 bottom feeder.
Anyway, very interesting post DBinKC. I hope the Chiefs will continue to field a team that will keep them competitive on draft day many years in the future.
by HBBeough on Apr 30, 2008 10:24 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, KC's going to have to wait for success
I think Denver will be able to handle them again next season. KC still needs to sort out the quarterback position and get more weapons across from Bowe at the receiver position. However, this draft did set them up fairly well for the future, especially from a need filling standpoint.
by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe.
Who knows what will happen in the future but right now there aren’t many dudes on the Chief’s roster I’d rather have than the current Broncos. Also, you can draft high for years and not come up with a player like Jared Allen. Tony Gonzalez ain’t going to be around much longer either. I heard Herm Edwards saying they need 8 starters from this draft. Good Luck Herman.
by HBBeough on Apr 30, 2008 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I have about two consecutive years missing the playoffs before
I start freaking out, but that is because I am spoiled. Only 5-6 losing seasons since 1973 will do that to a fan. :) KC will be on the rise in the coming years, but yea, this year they will be bottom feeders.
Oh and welcome to MHR!
by Tim Lynch on Apr 30, 2008 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

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