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Projecting the Starters Part Two: Defense

This is the second in a two to three part series featuring extremely early projections for next season’s starting line-up.  Take into account that we’ve yet to see how these players perform in camp and have no idea if or when injuries will take place.  Have some fun with it…

 

It’s never too early to get excited for the NFL regular season.  With the draft completed and mini camps only days away, now is as good a time as any to start the gears turning.  Let’s start thinking about who’s going to start next season.  Where will the new rookies fit in?  What about the free agents we delayed talking about during the draft?

 

Star-divide

Linebacker:

Denver knew it had to fix the linebacker position.  The Broncos have been known for quick and fierce linebackers in the past, last season not included.  The loss of the vocal Al Wilson left a large void on the defense.  On some teams, the linebacker is the quarterback of the defense, but it wasn’t so for the Broncos last season.  With the tides turning and the age flowing in, it’s time for this team to develop young leadership.

Denver brought in two free agents that hope to change the face of the linebacking corps and help it reach familiar heights.  There’s no doubt in my mind that these two new guys will be starting next season.  Boss Bailey has speed, and despite a drop off from the 88 tackles he put up during his rookie campaign in 2003, Boss had 3.5 sacks last year.  He’ll get to play on the strong side, and he’ll get to play well in the Broncos’ system.

Niko Koutouvides His production too has dropped off since his rookie year.  Wait a second now, he hasn’t had much of a chance to play since that year.  Some league personnel have speculated that Niko could have started if he hadn’t been behind Lofa Tatupu in Seattle.  Do you have faith Broncos fans?  Niko’s pumped about getting a starting opportunity and I think his play will show it.  You don’t necessariloy have to be mind-blowing to be a good middle linebacker; you just have to occupy space and take on linemen.  Plus, maybe the recent release and subsequent high ratings of a certain video game featuring a title character of his namesake could be good for the mojo.

The best part about these deals?  D.J. gets to move back to weak side linebacker, where he’s apparently more comfortable, and where speed will reign supreme.

Cornerback:

Just like the quarterback position on offense, the cornerback position on defense seems the most secure.  Thankfully, Foxworth is back and will play a big role as the third cornerback, but you can’t argue against Bailey and Bly starting next season.  Dre Bly, his two pro bowls, a 2003 Galloping Gobbler award, and his one Super Bowl ring were brought in to play number two CB on this team.  Although there have been questions concerning Bly’s tackling ability of late, the former Lion hauled in 5 INTS last season.  Sure, teams have finally figured out what it means to "not throw in the direction of Champ Bailey." It works when Bly gets burned (like he did by Greg Jennings in the loss to the Pack last season).  Still, Bailey and Bly start next season.  Enough said.

Safety:

Now we get to the part where Broncos fans start to tear up.  John Lynch is about to leave us, but before he leaves, Denver will award him with one more season at starting free safety.  No one on the roster has more experience or better instincts than the veteran Lynch at his position.  Lynch came back to play for one more year, to share his knowledge, and to compete for an AFC West crown.  Marlon McCree is a recent back-up at best, but he and newly acquired Marquand Manuel (who hasn’t played as well as McCree) will provide depth if the two guys I have starting go down, which means…

It’s time for Hamza Abdullah to step up and show us the young safety he can be!  Hamza showed a little potential last season, and the jury is still out on whether or not he will be successful.  Most tend to feel he will be, and you can include me in that "most" group.  Hamza’s ten siblings should brace for some good news from their brother.  I know McCree could start here, but I’m willing to give the former practice squader a chance.  Maybe I’m just down on Marlon because he was a Charger.  We need to develop a future safety, and I’ll be watching to see how Abdullah does in pre-season action.

Defensive End:

How can you not like Elvis Dumervil?  The guy’s just about as tall as me, and still amassed 12.5 sacks in 2007.  The real question Denver faces this off-season is: who should start opposite "Doom?" 

Can Ebenezer Ekuban return from his torn ACL he suffered last season?  Well, the guy averaged 6.3 sacks from 2004-2006, and Broncos fans know Double E can play football.  Rotations aren’t just for running backs anymore, as we’ll continue to see them along the defensive line.  Ekuban and Engelberger are the "right ones" left over from the old Cleveland Brono line.  Engelberger can make some nice plays in the backfield, but I see this as Ekuban’s job.  If Ebenezer isn't able to go, stick Engleberger in there due to the experience.  Moss and Crowder haven’t yet shown anything that makes me what to hand the job over just yet.  If Ekuban can get back to form, I say put in the veteran.  I still think Crowder and/or Moss (if he can avoid injury) could help Denver get to the passer more often, but the jury’s still out on that.

The truth is, it won’t matter too much who the "official" starters are at this position, because fans could see a rotation next season.  With the additions of Crowder and Moss in last season’s draft, there are too many bodies on the bench to let sit.  I go back to the Steelers’ game last season when advocating this kind of a rotation.

Defensive Tackle:

Ask Carlton Powell how happy he is to join the Broncos.  They needed DTs to stop the run, and they LOVE to rotate players.  While Powell won’t get the start in 2008, the Broncos have secured a player in the draft who can come in and compete.  Scouting reports cite Powell as a player who is solid against the run.  The other off-season addition at this position, DeWayne Robertson, has many people wondering.  I spoke to a Jets fan recently and he assured me Robertson would do well in Denver, despite his knee condition.  DeWayne was considered "too small" to play a true nose tackle position with the Jets, so now he’s a Bronco.  An off-season addition like D-Rob coming to a team with depth issues?  All roads lead to the starting line-up.

While competition for the spot opposite Robertson should prove fierce, the Broncos probably have a rotation in mind, preferably one where D-Rob plays 64.9 percent of the snaps.  Now we get to one of the few current doubts on this defense, as far as the starting line-up goes.  Who starts at the other DT position?

Denver doesn’t want to rank in the bottom five of the NFL against the run.  If you’re in the company of the Raiders, you know things have got to be horrendous.  Honestly, it’s a toss up.  This is a position I can see many people disagreeing over, and one I have spent quite a while pondering myself.  Yes, Marcus Thomas has issues with drugs, but he has talent.  Many consider Alvin McKinley a "rotational" player at best.  Does it really matter who I stick in the starting spot?

Alvin started last season opposite Sam Adams.  However, this season I like Thomas filling a role at starting defensive tackle.  The run defense was horrendous last season, and I think putting a second-year player in could bring some energy.  Rotating the line would be the smart thing to do: it worked in Green Bay.  Denver’s still searching for just the right combination of players, and although Thomas has had little experience, I’m all for him penciled in as "the starter" on paper (whatever weight that title may carry in a rotational system).

 

So how does it look?

Dendefense_medium

I think the defense proved a little easier to breakdown and project, barring any unforeseen injuries.  I hope I did a little better here than I did with the offense, but I know there are certainly some positions anyone can find fault with.  Do you want McCree at safety?  More importantly, who starts at the "other" defensive end and defensive tackle positions?  The linebackers should be decent and the play at corner won’t change, so it’s up to the line to turn Denver’s recent misfortunes into good fortune.  As always, I love to year your informed opinions and thoughts.

 

Poll
Your take...how many did I "get right?"
  • 11
  • 9-10
  • 7-8
  • 5-6
  • < 5

  47 votes | Results

4 recs | Comment 24 comments

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Comments

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Seems like there's something of a consensus

So far, everyone thinks you’ve hit on 9-10 of them, Phantom (myself included!) The two spots I see as most likely to change are: McKinely in for Thomas at DT, and McCree replacing Abdullah at safety. Now, this isn’t how I think things will turn out…I would have gone the same way as Phantom. But those seem like the shakiest spots.

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Apr 30, 2008 9:45 AM MDT   0 recs

Thanks, and you're right.

I myself had a feeling that the DT beside DeWayne, as well as the SS spot, would be the two in the most doubt. McCree was a back-up last season, but he’s shown he can get the job done before. I guess I’m trying to see a little more potential in Abdullah than he has in him going towards next season. Also, McKinley would be the safe addition to the defensive line. However, I wanted a change from the “starters” of last year and wanted to see how an experiment with promising youth would work for the middle of the line.

Also, the defensive end spot could prove another issue of debate, but I think Ekuban deserves to start (only if he’s deemed healthy and makes a recovery). As I said, it’ll probably still be a rotational deal at the line. Moss has injuries of his own to get over as well. One thing’s for sure, the defense is currently much more set than the offense (with the OL mostly to blame for that).

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 10:17 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I see McCree beating out Abdullah, and

Moss beating out Ekuban. Though Ekuban will probably end up getting more snaps than Moss on average.

by Zappa on Apr 30, 2008 10:16 AM MDT   0 recs

Small error

Please note that DJ Williams will play at ROLB or WILL (which is from the defense’s view), while Boss Bailey will play at LOLB (or SAM).

Other than that, great conversation starter and super post. I’ll be continuing my fan post series on depth by each position (like with the “OL mystery” post I did). You catch the macro overview, and I’ll try to do the micro position element.

Again, well done!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Apr 30, 2008 10:23 AM MDT   0 recs

CRAP! To be honest though,

lol I knew DJ would be playing the weakside, and I had a feeling I’d screw something up when changing the view and making that visual depth chart.

However, I think I put DJ where I put him because I had Graham lined up on the left side at TE in my offensive depth chart diagram. The weak side IS the side without the tight end…correct? I tried to be consistent when I did this, but thanks for pointing that out. That’s what I get for follow stupid visual depth charts when making my own.

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 10:34 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s probably because I messed up the offense in the first place, when I tried to figure out how to set it up, but isn’t that thinking right?

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 10:36 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Weakside and charting:

You are correct that the weakside is the side without the TE. This context (“weak-side”) would be a real-time term during a game. But in play creation charts (or even making depth charts), the strongside is generaly assumed to be on the offense’s right and the defense’s (own) left (or the right from the offense’s view) regardless of where a team lines up a TE. I didn’t say anything about Graham in the offense post you did because offensive depth charts aren’t expected to take every variable into account and line everyone up right. There are too many sets to take every combination into account.

For example, in an “I Formation” chart the slot receiver who starts may be listed as the back-up behind the #1 or #2. But many team actual charts don’t do this. But if you list all three receiver positions then the chart looks odd including the TE. This can’t be helped. So you didn’t do anything wrong by putting Graham where you did.

(Many teams “sandbag”, a term that means you bump up a lower player to fill in for an injury instead of bumping up the entire line of depth. This creates a weakness at the position being filled, but keeps every WR or CB from moving up and having each of them face a tougher opponent. It is the most common approach).

Teams actual-depth charts have a depth chart for every formation and set variation. No one is going to do it that way for an “overall” chart like we would for an article on general depth. You did the right thing, and your charts are much “prettier” than mine too. : )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Apr 30, 2008 10:54 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks, I appreciate it

Madden does teach you some things :)

The way sites do the wr depth chart is always fun to try and figure out…thanks for helping a bit with that. It seems they alternate and start by putting the 3rd receiver behind the 2nd and the 4th behind the 1st and so on (at least that’s what I’ve found looking at certain sites). I can see where the use of “sandbagging” can be useful, especially if you have a decent slot guy. The number two receiver can still work his magic on a less talented CB. I’d have to think that this idea would probably be less beneficial at the CB position, if someone were to go down.

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 10:59 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I probably shouldn't have picked against the former Charger McCree anyway

It seems the “MHR” depth chart at this point on defense will feature McCree at safety and McKinley (possibly) at DT as the two major differences. Unless, like Zappa, people have differences at other positions. I probably shouldn’t have switched my philosophy of experience that I used when looking at the offense.

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 11:00 AM MDT   0 recs

rec

Trust Thyself:every heart vibrates to that iron string. - Emerson

by firstfan on Apr 30, 2008 11:55 AM MDT   0 recs

Moss Could Surprise

If Moss is fully recovered and ready to play hard and fast by camp, then I expect him to become our other starting DE. He might not be a starter by Game 1, but if he doesn’t start by the middle of the season then we’ve got problems. I look at Eck/Eng as our backup/rotation options, not our starters. I just don’t think you draft a guy as high as we did Moss without the expectation that he’d be our starter sooner than later. His injury was an unfortunate setback last season.

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Apr 30, 2008 12:06 PM MDT   0 recs

Well, like Phantom said:

I think you’ll see all the DEs this year in a rotation with situational substitutions. Under the assumption that the DTs can all be played in similar situations (i.e. no Sam Adams who can only do one thing), then the DEs will probably be the ones interchanged based on situation. I could see Crowder and Ekuban in short yardage and goal line formations, and maybe both Moss and Doom in long yardage situations.

Ekuban probably gets the nod as “starter” due to his experience, but that title will mean very little with the DEs this year.

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Apr 30, 2008 12:32 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Defensive End

I guess I’m the only one who sees Crowder starting at LDE ahead of Ekuban. Moss doesn’t have the size to play every down at the left end (strong side facing the offense’s RT) so he shouldn’t be expected to be the starter there at all. I could see him rotating with Doom on a regular basis and possibly starting over Doom at times; they’ll be interchangeable. But on the left, it’ll be Crowder, then Ebenezer or Engleberger.
On obvious passing downs, it’ll be all youngsters: (R to L) Doom, Thomas, Crowder, Moss. I can’t wait to see that as I think it’ll be a formidable pass-rush, especially if they can have some success early on and gain confidence (which is key with young’uns).

Or so I'm told.

by MN Bronco on Apr 30, 2008 1:15 PM MDT   0 recs

Replying to my own post.... doh!

Keep in mind that Crowder is built almost exactly the same as the Giants Justin Tuck and with the success he and they have had rushing the passer from the DT spot, I think Crowder will drop down and do the same thing. Moss, on the other hand, is taller and lighter so he’ll be able to go smoking around a RT built to run-block and be able to wave those long arms in the face of opposing QB’s, blocking the right 3rd of the field and giving him that small moment of pause while Doom comes crashing down from behind. Cool, huh?

Or so I'm told.

by MN Bronco on Apr 30, 2008 1:21 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

With any luck

Moss can be singlehandedly responsible for taking TEs out of games (with pressure).

But even if he isn’t that good, I have faith in Boss’ ability to cover TEs in our division.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Apr 30, 2008 6:00 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Excellent point Styg

If we generate a powerfull enough pass rush, opposing teams have to keep their TEs in to block. In a division like ours, that’s a great help (Gates, Gonzales).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Apr 30, 2008 10:17 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with you about DE

I see a five man rotation. Ekuban/Crowder on the left side with Moss/Dumervil on the right and Engelberger as sort of a utility infielder (possibly playing some RE on running downs so Moss and Dumervil can be on the field together for third down)

DT is a bit trickier since we don’t really knwo the scheme that Denver is going to run so we don’t know what types of DT’s they are looking for. But based on the roster, it seems that they have guys that have very similar skill sets. I would guess it will be a rotation of D-Rob, M Thomas, McKinley with either Powell, Mallard or S Harris thrown in. (probably two of those three on the 53 man roster but only 1 active every week).

At other positions, I am gonna predict that either McCree or Manuel get cut before week 1. Same thing for one of our “name” backup LBs (Winborn, Webster).

by MattR on Apr 30, 2008 1:34 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Mostly Agree

I am brand new to this site but have been a Broncos fan for over ten years, that may not seem like much but i am only 20 years old. I agree on about 9 of your picks, but am truly hoping Moss or Crowder start over Ekuban at the DE spot opposite Elvis. Also i was not very impressed with Hazma Abdullah last year, he misses many tackles, which is why i think Denver added McCree and Manuel. I hate to say this but i think Lynch should come out of the game on passing downs. Also drafting Josh Barret out of ASU could be big down the road, even though some consider him a workout warrior after running around a 4.36 at the combine. Other than that very good predictions

by Tdrizz3 on Apr 30, 2008 1:58 PM MDT   0 recs

Welcome aboard

And I would say the vast majority of us here agree with your assessment of Lynch. Somebody else will rotate in on passing downs who can provide more range and/or coverage skills.

Hamza on the other hand, is a bit of a blog favorite. There is definitely room for improvement, but there is a lot of potential there. The buzz on Hamza was always that he was a solid tackler so I think his problems last year were the natural progression of a guy adjusting to the speed of the NFL. Hopefully, the game will slow down for him this year and he will go back to playing instead of thinking. Either way, this is a make or break year for him. He will get every opportunity to win a job.

by MattR on Apr 30, 2008 2:40 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Lynch on Passing Downs

Lynch is still one of the best S in the league against the pass. I usually don’t put too much value in raw stats but KC Joyner does a good job of breaking tape down recognizing who actually does what well rather than just relying on reputations. KC says Lynch is still a top S against the pass and I trust him with that. What I do see for Lynch is a general reduction in playing time but it wouldn’t make sense for it to be pass-specific.

I miss Al

by birkheac on Apr 30, 2008 4:28 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I gave you

eleven right even though you flip-flopped the OLBs (just as you did the TE) because you verbally got it right, Boss at Sam and D.J. at Will. I have Ekuban at strongside DE because he’s a runstopper, and Doom at weakside because that’s less important for run-stopping and is the QBs blind side. I’m not sure which side he played last year, I think both. I think he’ll become he’ll become an adequate run-stopper and a pass rushing terror with his third-year jump. I don’t know which way D-Rob and Thomas will line up and notice you didn’t specify, but I see them as the starters. Likewise for the safeties, with Lynch at strongside and Abdullah at FS. (Did you mean to leave Manuel off the depth chart?) So basically I agree with you.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Apr 30, 2008 2:19 PM MDT   0 recs

I left a few guys off the depth chart

I think the ones I put up there were some of the biggest toss-ups I had when picking (Foxworth not included). When I did the visual chart, I had to look at how other websites did the starters and I tried to look at what position Doom started at last season on other visual depth charts. I figured I’d screw the DTs up, so I decided not to post the particular positions. I had the feeling I’d get something wrong here visually, and despite trying to figure out how other sites did these depth charts, I was unable to get any kind of clear picture of how to set things up. Thanks for looking through the verbal comments as well, because those are the only ones that matter. I guess I need a crash course on the right way to set up a visual depth chart. Either that, or next time I should make my own depth charts and disregard what nfl.com and/or yahoo have as their depth chart images.

by phantom818 on Apr 30, 2008 2:38 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm going to reserve a lot of thoughts until I know the system we'll be running.

Some very abbreviated thoughts up front though.

1. I see us rotationg the DEs a lot.

2. Even if Moss comes back as a Superman, we won’t see Moss and Doom together on most downs (except obvious passing downs).

3. Lynch will start on obvious run downs.

4. At CB I see Bailey, then Bly, then (at nickle) Paymah. Fox will play at dime, and be the prime back-up at any of the top three spots. Williams will be STs, but may be put in on a few plays (at nickle) to see how he does.

5. At SAF we have a lot of competition. For the long term, Barrett is the competition with Hamza for who plays deep zones (FS). If Denver switches to a 2 deep zone SAF program (and I’m NOT talking cover-2 here), then Hamza and Barrett may get the starts in ‘09. Either or both of them may lose out temporarily to McCree or Manuel.

6. DTs is very hard to guage until we know the system. My early guess is that DRob starts with Thomas. Both will see heavy rotation.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Apr 30, 2008 10:34 PM MDT   0 recs

Thanks for the abbreviated thoughts

I really appreciate the good points. I’m glad it seems there’s an agreement here featuring DRob and MThomas starting at DT (however much the “starters” will actually play in a rotational setting). Again, it’s really early and we don’t know the system, but a lot of people here have posted great thoughts.

by phantom818 on May 1, 2008 9:56 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

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