Post-Draft Ramblings
Clady was flat-out who we wanted and the best choice for us. I’ve got three browsers open in adjacent virtual desktops with SN’s analyses of Jake Long, Ryan Clady, and Chris Williams, the order in which most experts ranked them, although SN actually has it Clady, Williams, Long. Even if Long is the best of the three he’s not the best for Denver’s system. His strength is straight-ahead drive blocking, his weakness mobility and pass protection. In run blocking SN grades him at 8.0, Williams at 8.0, Clady at 7.5, but both Williams and Clady are better at the kind of blocking Denver’s system demands. In pass blocking Clady ranks 1st, Williams 2nd, Long 3rd, but their grades are Clady and Williams 8.5, Long 7.0. Since the next person down, Otah, is also 7.0, it suggests that Clady and Williams are head and shoulders above the other OTs in pass blocking. In strength Long grades out at 8.5, ranking 1st, Williams 7.5, ranking 4th, and Clady 7.5, ranking 10th, so Long has a clear edge and Williams and Clady are about even. In mobility Clady is 8.5, ranking 2nd, Williams is 7.5, ranking 3rd, and Long is 6.0, ranking 9th and suggesting how relatively unsuited he is for Denver’s system. I’ved saved initial quickness for last because I think it might be especially significant. Clady is 9.0 and ranks 1st, Williams is 7.5 and 2nd, Long is 7.5 and 7th, suggesting Clady is head and shoulders above all other OTs. For reasons given in my post Information Processing Speed I suspect that this category suggests how well a player will adapt to the next level. Even if Clady was middle of the pack in the other categories this ranking might have tabbed him as a potential mid-round sleeper. But he’s not middle of the pack in the other categories. In my opinion he’s the best tackle in this year’s draft. Period.
It's been noted that we got not only a good returner in Royal but also stocked up on STers. This is encouraging but what is even more encouraging is that our coverage improved fairly dramatically from beginning to end last season, notwithstanding the Chicago debacle. The O'Brien experiment, unlike the Bates experiment, was a success, as noted here. He did this without an upgrade in personnel. If in addition to the upgrade in coaching we get better STers we're going to be uncharacteristically solid. Question: I know it's customary to protect key starters by exempting them from ST duty, but do we protect all of them? Koutouvides was Seattle's best STer.
In grading the draft, however prematurely, it occurs to me a distinction should be made between how well a team drafts and how good a draft that team has. The first indicates how well a team did with the picks they had. A team with few picks or a lot of late-round picks might do a better job and still not have as good a draft as a bad team with lots of early picks (KC) that doesn't obviously screw up. Trades for draft picks also have to be taken into account. Even if one of the extra picks (the ones they already had don't count) the Chiefs got for Jared Allen becomes an all-pro, not a certainty or even a probability, it'll be several years before he plays at that level. The trade hurt them short term, it might or might not help them in the long run. The Broncos appear to have drafted well, given that a lot of our picks were in the later rounds. If enough of those late picks pan out, it might turn out to have been a great draft.
Speaking of great drafts, one or two of them can set a team up for a decade of dominance. (Any draft that lands a Montana or Brady, even if no one else, is also a great one.) Pittsburgh's 1974 draft is the classic example. With four potential all-pros, one of them that all-important franchise QB, 2006 might turn out to have been that kind of draft for the Broncos. If in addition the 2007 and 2008 drafts turn out to have been solid we might be headed for our own period of dominance.
One aspect of a dominant team is character and the ability to play one's best in big games and at key moments, not just with one or two superstars but from top to bottom. That's been the nature of recent New England teams, and Shanahan now seems to be looking for those kinds of players. If 2006 was a turning point in landing us a nucleus of future stars, 2008 was a turning point in the Broncos' philosophy on building a team. Use the draft to find your future elite players, use free agency to shore up your weaknesses, and look for high-character, high-motor, clutch players at all levels of ability. If that's the case, given that the other key ingredient (the one the Chargers have been missing), an elite coach, is already on board, the next decade might be a storied one for this franchise.
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Very well-written
I have to say, though…obviously, we all despise the Chefs and everything they do. But how is it that everyone here is knocking their Allen trade? First off, they were a terrible team last year. Secondly, Allen has had many documented problems with DUI’s. He is a suspension waiting to happen. Clearly, they are in rebuilding mode and have zero chance of winning now. That is the background of it. But what caught my eye immediately was just how much the Chefs extracted from Minnesota for Allen. A 1st rounder, two 3rd’s and a positive swap of 6th rounders. That is insane! In this day and age, it’s very hard to get even a single 1st rounder for a veteran, even less throwing in two 3’s! Not to mention that Minny had to cough up a huge contract on top of it all. I’m not picking on you – I’ve just seen it all over MHR in recent days. If I were (forbid) a Chefs fan, I’d be thrilled with the Allen trade. It was a heist.
I realize it’s not the gist of your column Spock, which I otherwise agreed with and wholeheartedly enjoyed. I am hopeful and excited for a good Special Teams squad this year. Frankly, it’s been a long long time since we’ve had one. Ten years, actually. Go Broncos!
by nycbroncosfan on May 1, 2008 8:26 AM MDT 0 recs
I don't think that's what Spock was saying.
The trade was certainly a good trade. Spock’s point is that the team traded a short term advantage that is a known quality (we know how good Allen is) for a potential long term advantage (there is no guarantee on any draft picks). That’s what rebuilding is all about. Spock is right that the picks (if good) won’t pay off for awhile, but that’s the idea behind long term rebuilding.
In the position the Chiefs are in (multiple needs) and the issue with Allen (great player with potential off field risks), the Chiefs made a solid decision. They traded away Allen for the ability to make overall improvements over a longer period of time (a classic rebuilding move). They also spread their risks out over several picks (and many of them high ones).
I think KC had one of the best drafts, and I think the Allen trade was a solid move. Thank God they don’t have a core to build around on the offense, and that they are starting so far behind us.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by hoosierteacher on
May 1, 2008 10:23 AM MDT
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nycbroncosfan did make some valid points
especially Allen’s off-field issues, which I wasn’t aware of. HT, your point is well taken, and as you surmised is partly what I had in mind, that the Chiefs traded a short term advantage for a potential long term advantage. If the Chiefs get one all-pro out of those extra picks, and one or two starters or solid backups besides, they come out ahead. If they get no all-pros they come out behind. As you suggest Allen is an all-pro already, and there’s no guarantee that one of those extra picks will become one. My other point was more subtle. I think lots of people are seeing the KC draft in a vacuum, as if they’ve got all those picks and that’s all there is to it. But in addition to all that’s been added something’s also being subtracted, Allen. I think we should look at their draft as if those extra picks didn’t exist, and then ask, how good was it? There’s a good chance that the extra picks versus the loss of Allen will be a wash, and even if not it’s still what they gain on those extra picks minus what they lose in Allen. Thanks to both of you for your comments.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on
May 1, 2008 10:44 PM MDT
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the flip side of this is Cleveland
Who did not have any picks until the 4th round because of trades. I think they did a fantastic job with the picks they had, but KC or Denver will almost definitely end up getting a larger number of productive players from the draft simply due to the volume of picks.
If I look at just the draft picks, I would give Cleveland an A-. If I add in the context of the trades (Brady Quinn, Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers) I drop it just a bit to a B since they ended up using 3 picks total on DT’s and they run a 3-4 defense.
by MattR on
May 1, 2008 11:07 PM MDT
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That's a good point
and speaks to the distinction I made between drafting well and having a good draft. With no early-round picks, due to the Quinn deal last year, it was almost a guarantee that Cleveland wasn’t going to have a great draft, but i think many people agree that they drafted well with the picks they had.
I’m inclined to give a lower grade because: 1) I think a team should be graded on how much they apparently improved themselves, period, not on how well they did considering, and 2) I don’t think Brady Quinn should be counted twice, both for last year and this year. The way I see it the trade they made was to strengthen last year’s draft class at the expense of this year’s class. I do count trades, like Roberts, involving draft picks, because the guy you get is in essence your pick(s).
Speaking of grade have you noticed how much grade inflation there is every year in the NFL draft? Very few evaluators give anybody a grade below C-. Does this mean that, like the kids in Garrison Keiler’s Lake Woebegone, nobody’s draft is below average? I’d like to see a few F’s. (styg50 at least gave the Titans a D.)
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on
May 1, 2008 11:49 PM MDT
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Great Post and happy happy happy
Did I tell anyone that I spent J-high thru college (Boise State College back then) in Boise. Not only is Clady good , but for him to go from Bronco to Bronco, makes me happy happy happy. I’m a little concerned with the injury picks-but what the heck-injuies can heal. What I really liked about this draft is the theme-Character-It is so important.
by Mike Clark on May 1, 2008 10:11 PM MDT 0 recs
Maybe it's just something about us Western/Midwestern/Mountain types?
We’d just rather sit around, down a few beers, and discuss, rather than make outlandish statements and be a bunch of jerks.
Mmmm…beers sound good…
~Uffdah
by Disco_Stu on
May 1, 2008 10:50 PM MDT
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The injury picks
are an interesting and I think worthwhile kind of gamble. First and second round picks, even if busts relative to expectations, still are pretty likely to make the team and contribute for several years. In the later rounds this possibility becomes more and more a longshot. The Broncos went for higher-round talent with injury (not character!) issues that dropped them down the board. Do the increased odds of higher-round talents becoming solid contributors outweigh the possibility that some won’t fully regain their pre-injury form? I think the answer is yes. I think the Broncos were also pretty careful in determining that injured players had completely healed or were well along in the process. A significant factor is that players this young are more likely to heal quickly and completely.
Like you, I’m extremely happy we got Clady, who I think is the real deal. Too many teams who draft who they think is their franchise QB then turn to the defense, thinking the offense has been fixed. A team can be built piece by piece in no particular order at all positions except QB. If you get a good QB and he doesn’t have, first, lineman to protect him, and second, receivers to throw to, chances are he’s going to get pounded and never realize his potential. Once you start building an offense around a QB you should keep going until you’re finished. Otherwise you’ve wasted that pick. Shanahan is smart enough to realize that, and to continue to pick offensive players in last year’s draft and this one, when a lot of people probably think he should be concentrating solely on the defense. I’m glad he put such a high priority on getting a LT who we’re all hoping will be an all-pro for years to come.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on
May 1, 2008 11:21 PM MDT
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Late round picks with injury issues
also make it easier to get them through waivers and onto the practice squad. And then there is always using the injured reserve to stash players away and late round picks cost less. I know there are some kind of restrictions about what players on IR can do with the team so that also has to be factored into the stashing decision. (I will have to dig further tomorrow but I am pretty sure that players on IR cannot take part in practices but they may able to do one on one work with coaches)
by MattR on May 1, 2008 11:55 PM MDT 0 recs
but what the heck
I didn’t mean to upset anyone about injury picks. If you read what I wrote I said, ‘Character is so important’ and ‘injuries heal’.
by Mike Clark on May 2, 2008 10:40 PM MDT 0 recs
Mike, I think I'm missing something.
I’ve read the three comments from members after your “injury picks” comment. I not only fail to see who got upset, I don’t even see where someone disagreed with you.
No harm, no foul. Everythings cool.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by hoosierteacher on
May 2, 2008 11:09 PM MDT
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Indeed
I’m sorry if it sounded like I was disagreeing with you, Mike. Like you said, injuries heal. I was merely expanding on that theme, adding the thought that other teams’ hesitation because of injuries lets us get high-value picks.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on
May 2, 2008 11:36 PM MDT
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