The Kicking Battle: Hartley vs Prater

Although I originally posted this in HT's positional upgrade article, I felt it was worth improving and moving so people can get a better feel for the past performance of the kickers dueling to be the new Denver Broncos' kicker in '08.

My personal feeling is that with the loss of Jason Elam, the FG kicking unit of Special Teams took a definite step back (at least in terms of its ability to inspire confidence in the field players---see Champ's comments); however, I do believe that no matter who wins the upcoming roster slot, Prater or Hartley, we’re better off in the field position game, and one roster spot better (to use for O-Line perhaps?) by not having to carry the dreaded kicking specialist. So, in a way, it’s a net gain. Though I must admit that in doing this write-up I was swayed somewhat by Guru’s excellent archived piece on Elam. That said, I still think a clutch kicker is extremely difficult to replace, and few things can kill a team’s confidence quite like a terrible kicking blunder, much less consistently terrible kicking blunders.

Now, as far as the battle for the roster spot in concerned, I don’t have much confidence in Prater, to be honest.  I just don't get the feeling that he has quite the same level of confidence that Hartley exudes---the kind of confidence that can inspire teammates into feeling that their hard work will be rewarded when they put the kicker in a position to succeed.  

It's worth noting here that if Prater does snag the job, I hope he does well.  I will support whoever wins the battle so long as he is a Denver Bronco.  However, my personal hope at this stage is that Hartley steps up and wins it. That said, I was a bit confused by statement regarding Hartley's college performance in HT's aforementioned thread:

We have Prater and Garrett Hartley deuling it out for our FG kicker and netiher did well in college.

Hartley didn’t do well in college? Shoot, BroncoBilly, I trust you because I don’t watch too much college FB these days, but Hartley’s senior season stats seem to be decent:

FG: 13/15 (0/0 from 1-19, 6/6 from 20-29, 4/6 from 30-39, 2/2 from 40-49, and 1/1 from 50+); Pct: .867; Long: 53. I believe one of those misses was blocked. PATs: 71/74; Pct. .959.

Granted, it’s college and he didn’t kick many FGs, but his PCT was better than every Bronco PCT season between ‘89 & ‘96 with Treadwell and Elam (see Guru’s above linked article). All in all, it seems a decent stat line for a team that hardly kicked FGs and kicked a ton of PATs. Yet, we all know how important mental toughness is to the kicking position. So, how did Hartley do in big games when the season was on the line?

Clutch indicators:

1/1 FG (Long 26) and 5/5 PATs in the Big 12 Championship game against Mizzou, and 3/3 FG (Long 42) and 1/1 PAT in the Fiesta Bowl against WVU.

Full Stats for Collegiate Career (from ESPN.com):

So, how do Prater’s college numbers compare directly to Hartley's?

The above image comes from a Prater story on the DPO by Jim Armstrong.  As you can see the PCT is dismal when compared to Treadwell's and Elam's numbers.  Also, it is worth noting that Prater played in zero bowl games, and as such, his clutch rating is not nearly as quantifiable as Hartley's.

Now, I do agree with what has been said previously on the site regarding some college players transitioning very well into the NFL after having subpar holders/offensive lines/field qualities/conditions/et cetera.  (Adam Vinatieri was a named example.)  Yet, I think that a big game mentality is still measurable through performance in big games, and Hartley has that. In the big games, he was perfect, and that has to count for something, particularly with Mike Shanahan.

EDGE:

Although it is Matt Prater's job to lose at this point, Garrett Hartley may already have a leg up on the incumbent due to his big game performances.