Hello all, this is my first “entry” at The Mile High Report and I hope to bring a different perspective to this wonderful community of fans.   As a Broncos fan I was not very happy with the way the season went last year.  Like most of you reading this I watched every Broncos game and consider myself a pretty knowledgeable person about football, so I ended the season with some pretty firm ideas on why the Broncos failed last season.  I placed the blame mainly on our offensive and defensively lines, specifically in the red zone for the offensive line and in run defense for our defensive line.

Since then I have stumbled upon an excellent football statistics website which I urge you all to explore, www.footballoutsiders.com.  Using the statistics provided by this website I have began to reexamine the Broncos last season and this is what I found.

My first question was what did Football Outsiders say were the Broncos problems last season.   To determine this I would find the N.F.L. ranking of our offense, defense, and special teams.  I would break these areas down further and see which specific parts of the offense and defense were ranked twelfth or better (I used twelfth because I would consider most seasons a success if the team makes the playoffs because once you are in the playoffs anything can happen).

 (I apologize for the tables, they got messed up in the transfer from word.)

For those of you who have not visited Football Outsiders the most important term in that chart is probably a complete mystery, DVOA.  (thirty-two is the worst one is the best in these rankings.)

“THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.”

For more information here is an article on their website: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

The first thing that jumped out at me was how much higher the Broncos’ offensive rank was than either their defensive or special teams rank.  I was skeptical about the offense being ranked ninth after having watched their red zone struggles all of last season.  So, I delved into the statistical breakdown of our offense last season.

Here are the Football Outsider statistics about the Denver Bronco’s offense last season:

These are the weighted offensive statistics from last season.  With all Football Outsiders statistics 0% is the league average.  On offense a team wants to have a high number and on defense a low number.

These are the unweighted offensive statistics from last season.

And here are three other statistics you all might be interested that involve our offensive rank.

The first thing that jumped out at me is that both the passing and rushing sections of our offense were ranked lower than our total offense.  This however can be explained by the Simpson’s Paradox (for those of you who are interested here is a quick explanation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox ).

The most discouraging part of these rankings to me was our rushing offense, not so much because it is two places higher than out passing offense, but because a team like Denver who relies on the run should have a rushing offense in the top five, not the top fifteen.  In 2005 when Denver went to the AFC Championship game their rush offense had an adjusted ranking of first on the Football Outsider website.  So, seeing these rushing rankings I decided to further research our running backs and offensive line. (Due to time constraints I will only cover our rushing offense in this first post.)

I decided to look up the Broncos offensive line first because the Bronco’s running backs continually rotated due to injury our play quality all season long.  I looked up the running backs to answer specific questions, but I really believe that the offensive line holds the answer to the majority of the questions about our offensive line.

Here are the run block statistics for the entire offensive line:

Here are the run block statistics broken down for specific sections of the offensive line:

And here is how often Denver runs in certain directions compared to the rest of the N.F.L.

And here are some definitions:

ALY= “Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (current baseline: 4.08).” (More can be found here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#lineyards ).

Power Success= Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Stuffed= Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

N.F.L.= Average N.F.L. percentages and statistics.

Ok, now that is a lot to digest.  The most apparent thing is how amazing horrendous our “power running is”, thirty second in the N.F.L. entirely unacceptable.  Power runs are the runs that truly count, while it is nice to be ranked sixth in runs that are ten yards or longer is almost useless and irrelevant.  As Football Outsiders explains:

“If their overall yards per carry are equal, a running back who consistently gains yardage on every play is more valuable than a boom-and-bust running back who is frequently stuffed at the line but occasionally breaks a long highlight-worthy run.

You may start a drive 80 yards away from scoring, but as long as you can earn 10 yards in four chances, you get another four chances. Long gains have plenty of value, but if those long gains are mixed with a lot of short gains, you are going to put the quarterback in a lot of difficult third-and-long situations. That means more punts and more giving the ball back to the other team rather than moving the chains and giving the offense four more plays to work with.

The running back who gains consistent yardage is also going to do a lot more for you late in the game, when the goal of running the ball is not just to gain yardage but to eat clock time. If you are a Carolina Panthers fan watching your team with a late lead, you don't want to see three straight DeShaun Foster stuffs at the line followed by a punt. You want to see a game-icing first down.”

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/pregame.php

I decided to look up Denver’s power rank of the last few last years, in 2006 they ranked sixteenth with a 63% success rate and in 2005 they ranked ninth with a success rate of 68%.  This shows the obvious correlation between success in power running and overall success as a team.  To test this hypothesis I looked up a few other run focused teams.  I used Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Kansas City I then charted their points a drive for that year and power success and power rate. 

In 2006, none of my four sample teams did too well, but 14-2 San Diego had a Power Rank of 4.

The data does not show as strong of a correlation as I would of liked, but it is strong enough (variables should be factored in that I have ignored like QB play) to prove my point that the horrible power running of this team will be their undoing.  Only six teams were within ten percent of Denver’s 49% success rate and of those six teams four of them lost the starting running back for the majority if not all of the season.  Fortunately, this is one of a few ratings that can significantly change from season to season.

Some would look at the stuffed percentage of the Broncos and assume since they are only one percent higher than the average it is not too big of a deal, however when all the teams are examined it becomes apparent most teams are within a percent of the N.F.L. average for stuffs (fifteen teams in fact).  This means the Broncos could easily have been ranked significantly higher or lower.  Looking at their power success rank I think it is safe to assume that it is more likely they would be ranked lower than higher.

I also examined specific parts of the offensive line.  When comparing our adjusted lines yards on certain sections of the OL to the percent of runs that were directed to that area the Mid/Guard area raises some real concerns. It seems as if Shannahan was running into a wall (pun intended) as he continued to pound the ball into Denver’s weakest area.

However, upon closer examination only two teams ran the ball fewer times straight up the gut.  So, Shannahan really did try to cut down on runs to the Mid/Guard area.  This is directly connected to our power running failures and high stuff rate.  In power running scenarios a run straight up the gut is often the best scenario, further dives and slams are stuffed far less often than tosses and sweeps.  The two teams who ran up to the Mid/Guard area had power success rates of 29 and 7 ( the second teams is the New York Giants I am truly baffled they didn’t run to the Mid/Guard area more with a big back like Jacobs) and a stuff rate of 25 and 5 (again the second team is the New York Giants and it is hard to stuff a back like Jacobs).

So, while the focus on Denver’s offensive line right now seems to be the tackles maybe it should move towards the guard and center?  Actually, with the return of Nalen and hopefully Hamilton (I still have my doubts about him really coming) Denver can begin to raise its power success rate and lower its stuff rate.

The ranking of fifth and sixth for the left and right ends respectively would suggest Denver’s tackles were great last year is actually pretty misleading.  This is for three main reasons.  First, when Denver ran to an end Daniel Graham was often on that side as an extra blocker.  Second, since Denver runs a lot of plays where the guards pull the offensive tackles get even another extra blocker.  Third, outside runs often allow the runner to “get in space” so more of the runs success is determined on the runners ability to avoid defenders than on interior runs.  Lastly, Lepsis pubically admitted is failure at the left tackle spot last year and Denver’s right tackle from last season sounds like he has already been replaced by Kuper.

I also looked up Denver’s running backs. Young was ranked 20th in DPAR (“or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level RB in the same game situations”)  17th in DVOA (“or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.”) and 40th in Success Rank (“his number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays.”).  While both Youngs DVOA and DPAR are mediocre his Success Rank is poor, this is worrisome because as Football Outsiders points out, “A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more.”  This unfortunately, sounds like our running game last year in general, gets the easy yards, stuffed on the hard yards.  So, Selvin Young better work on his vision and put on some weight before he gets those 2,000 yards.

Travis Henry while ranking 39th in DPAR and 40th in DVOA ranks 27th in Success Rate.  This seems to imply if he weren’t injured all season or if Denver’s offensive line were better Travis Henry could have placed higher.  Still, even if Henry had placed higher it most likely would still have been in the mid 20’s, just mediocre.

These statistics clearly explain Shannahan’s comments about Young not being an every down back and probably explains the drafting of Torain.

I will try to right up an article on our passing offense tomorrow and finish up my entire section on the offense.

Please comment, and if you got this far thanks for reading.