I like how, at the end, you left open the option for certain things to work. I think the three points you made involved good deals in terms of players for Smith, but maybe too much given up for those players. Chambers had a huge impact on that team and I, Guru, and a lot of others here at MHR have praised the match-up problems Chambers helps create on that team.

Eric Weddle made a pretty cool one-handed interception (I believe in the game against Indy?) last season, and Hester’s not a bad selection, considering the Bolts didn’t have too many needs this off-season and needed to find a FB and RB for the future.

However, yes the man may have given up too much to get these guys. The Chargers are still gonna be on top until someone knocks them off, but it seems that as LT survives in SD, the Chargers will survive. The Falcons could only hope they had kept a guy as athletic as that guy.

Is he really that great a GM? Now that, is a good question to ask, and I’m glad you “asked” and explained the apparent answer in your post.

IMO, AJ Smith has done an excellent job working with what he had, whether by selecting talented players or making good trades. Sometimes, all you need to be successful is to be in the right place at the right time…then act. A little luck never hurts either.

But the 2007 and 2008 Chargers are in a completely different spot than earlier versions of the team. They have the talent and division titles. They are perennial Super Bowl contenders…but those windows of Super Bowl contention can be fleeting. And now they have the stadium situation up in the air. This is a team that NEEDS to win, and they may only have a short time left in which to do so. LT and Gates will not last forever, and Phyllis would be average without the talent around him. AJ MUST be in “win now, at any cost” mode, as there may not be much of a tomorrow for the San Diego Chargers if they don’t win now.

“AJ Smith and John Butler built this team on the lack of patience by other teams (Atlanta and NY Giants). They made trades for more than they gave.”

That must be the essence of what a GM must strive for.

Regarding Manning and the top pick it should be remebered, that Manning made it very public, that he had no intentions of playing for the chargers. That severely reduced A.J. Smiths leverage in any trade scenario. So he went ahead and took Eli anyway, and he ultimately got the deal he wanted – his actions weren’t forced, as much as he forced the actions of others.

In much the same way that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar next year, a draft pick exercised today is worth more than one exercised next year. The conventional wisdom among GMs is that a “this year pick” is equivalent to a pick next year, one round higher. Also, you have to assume a next year pick will be in the middle of a particular round.

If I want a mid second-round pick this year, it should cost next year’s first. That’s considered a fair trade on the day you make it, in the absence of complete information. Next year’s pick is an imaginary asset until next year, while a player drafted today is a performing asset, which you hope will contribute to winning more games now, and in so doing, diminishing the realizable value of the foregone pick from next year.

I don’t think there is a hard and fast policy a wise person would have about trading future assets. It all comes down to what you think is the best value, like any other trade. Personally, I think Weddle is just OK, and Hester is a goal-line back and special teamer. Chambers is declining and aging. If you win the Super Bowl, it’s worth it. If not, maybe it isn’t.

Is this team really better?

You sell the farm for Weddle, which means McCree (who I always thought was a cornerstone of that defense – even before I became a fan as a Broncos) becomes expendable. And then Florence leaves. I cannot see this being good for the team. Jammer is now the only quality secondary starter with more than a year or two under his belt…

Then you let Turner and Neal go. And trade up for Hester to replace – er – both of them? Do’t get me wrong, I like Hester’s game, a lot – but he is no Lorenzo Neal and certainly no “Burner.” I have always felt that LDT’s success was partially due to Neal’s massive head leading the way. He may be old – but this guy wrestles with college D1 wrestlers in the offseason and has lead blocked for 1000 yard rushers in 11 straight seasons!

Olivea is a big loss as well. Admittedly I don’t know who else they’ve brought in, or how it will affect their line. I will have to agree that AJ Smith should EAT THIS BURRITO!

But I will say this. The acquisition of Chambers was dynamite. I wrote about it when it first happened. The match-up disaster for other teams trying to cover Gates and LT and now a credible threat at WR was a terrific mid-season move by SD.

I’m not arguing the article at all. I don’t keep up with the GMs of other teams. But SD has a good roster, and in my mind, fit it all together with Chambers for the time he is with the team. (In Denver’s case, we now can’t put Bailey on Gates as we like too. This opens up the passing game, which in turns drives against our run defense. The week that Chambers went to SD I think I wrote that this spelled a disaster for many other teams, and sure enough SD took off).

I’m not saying it was a bad move just one made at some cost to the future of the team.

I did like you’re mini breakdown on why Chambers worked out so good HT.

The inspiration for this post comes from the fact I live in socal and the best sports talk radio is AM 1090 in San Diego. John Lynch Sr. runs the station. I hear more Charger talk than I can stand most of the time but I love the NFL and if someone is talking about it I’m listening.

I think AJ Smith has to be considered one of the best GM’s in the league by the fact that his team won two games in the AFC playoffs last year. However, I posted these thoughts to show the guy is not bulletproof. Until he lifts Vince Lombardi he is just another guy to me.

didn’t marty draft some of these guys, or was it all smith doing the draft selections? also, regarding chambers, i think he is overrated as a #1 receiver. but it doesn’t matter, he is good enough, and the best receiver they have had in a long time. it’s about time they got one, and that is all they really needed. i, too, am concerned with him and jackson at wr now. the heat has been turned up

Hb has some solid observations about AJ Smith. I for one would like to know why the media has been all over these guys for the last several years. Actually I know the answer and that is because of LaDainian Tomlinson. The ONLY thing these guys have accomplished is winning the AFC West 3 of the last 4 years and getting to the AFC Championship last year before losing. Not a big deal, Denver did it in 05. Last year was the only two playoff wins SD has had since 1994 when they made it to their one and only Super Bowl appearance. Now all of a sudden, “they are the 2nd best team in the league?”

It seems the longer that I look at the Chargers, the more I get the impression that it’s a bunch of me players than a team, and I’ll include AJ Smith.

Looking at the AJ Smith era, he believes that the credit for last year belongs to him. He’s the one that got rid of Marty because Marty couldn’t win a playoff game. Kudos to him for Norv, he believes their success is due to him. At this years draft, he had the nerve to post a sign at the draft table with the names of the players he got last year with this years picks. Thats a little self centered to have to remind people that you thought you were smart and made good trades last year. “Hey AJ! grow up!”

One thing about him though, is that I think the comments are right, he knows he has to win now before the whole thing comes apart. Give him credit for that, but I think they are on a downward spiral rather than up, and they peaked last year. I just wonder who AJ will blame after the 08 season.

I think your post misses the fact that the Chargers are in a totally different position than they were when AJ took over. While we needed every draft choice back then, there is so much talent locked down, that even if we had all our picks each draft, not that many could make this roster. Also the Chargers record is such that we are always picking near the end of a round. That means we gave up a low second and a fifth round choice to Chicago for a high third round choice to get Hester. Basically we only gave up a fifth rounder that would only have on outside shot of making the team next year, that isn’t much to fill a position you need. Almost the same thing happened with Weddle taken near the top of the second round, though we paid more. Weddle is a huge upgrade to McCree though; and pulled in a key interception against the Colts. McCree was slow in coverage and had some really bad angles on running plays, I think the Broncos may end up being disappointed with him.

The other missing fact is that there is real talent waiting in the wings. Paul Oliver projected as a first rounder was taken in the fourth round of the supplementary draft got to watch and learn last year as we were stacked. A little slow for corner, the word is that he is going to make an excellent safety. TE Legadu Nanee (who ya gotta love just for his name) and Vincent Jackson really seemed to come on at the end of the year. Anthony Waters and Brandon Siler also look like they are developing into potential starters. As for the starters lost, we are likely going to get an extra third round pick for Turner and fourth or fifth for Florence. Every year, right after the draft folks are quibbling how AJ reached for this player or that (I myself grumbled some about Cromartie), but mostly the critics are eating the burrito when all is said and done.

You do make a good point on management, but Schottenheimer was not his pick and was actively trying to get himself fired that last year so he would still get paid; it can’t all get laid at AJ’s feet. His other big whiff was letting go of Wes Welker after just one game; but that had a lot to do with Schottenheimer too. I also would have liked to have seen another Offensive lineman picked up, but they did pretty well last year. AJ has put together a team that has been a contender and I think has two or three more bites at the apple; but you’re absolutely right that not having a ring takes away from his record. In three to five years we are probably looking at some rebuilding seasons. Still, compared to recent moves of the Broncos (Javon Walker, Travis Henry and a series of coaches come to mind); AJ looks like he is keeping house pretty well to me.

Heh, being homeless I pretty much gotta poop in somebody else’s yard. You all put up some pretty interesting stuff, so you have only yourselves to blame; it’s an attractive nuisance.