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I don't get something.

There have been a ton of top 10 DL picks that have turned into busts in the past. There have also been some late round successes. Typical of every position. When I think about it, most of these busts seem to have one thing in common, and that is the quality of their college team. I just wanted to see what you guys think.

An NFL example of what I am trying to say would be the Titan's D-line last year. When fat Albert was playing, they looked like an elite unit. Their DE looked great. But when their top dog got injured, their D-line looked no better than ours.

Extending the analogy, I want to ask, were Dorsey and Ellis really that good? Ellis' fellow DE was taken in the 2nd round this year. His fellow DT is projected as a top 10 pick next year. They were backed by the top LB corp in the nation (Rivers, Maliuga, and Cushing). Would Ellis looked half as good playing on Vandy's D-line? Same goes for Dorsey. There were two other top 10 talent D-linemen playing alongside him. Sims had Groves and Marks on the same line as him.

The only DT who really showed up all on his own was the guy from Notre Dame, Laws.

Perhaps it is important to look at the way these guys play on these all-star teams to really get a better idea about who they are.

* * * * * * *

Something else that has been bothering me for a while is how everyone says Doom is small for a DE. I agree a 100% that at 5'11" he is a good 4" short of the ideal hight, but he is not small. When most people say small, they mean too light and thin to take the pounding in the NFL. Or too light to be effective. But let's take a look around.

Robert Mathis (Colts)--starter-- 6'2" 247

Adewale Ogunleye (Bears)--starter-- 6'4" 260

Strahan (Giants)--star-- 6'5" 255

Osi Umenyiora (giants)--starter-- 6'3" 261

Travis LaBoy (cardinals now)--starter-- 6'3" 260

Gaines Adams (Bucs) --top 10 pick-- 6'5" 258

Our own Elvis Dumervil-------5'11" 260

Just look at the numbers here. Doom is heavier than half these guys and shorter than all of them by a good margin. He has a more solid built than every single guy on this list. How is it that some of you guys think Strahan who 6 inches taller and 5 pounds lighter can be an every down player, but Doom can't?

By the way, I agree 100% with anyone who says that Dumervil would probably be more effective if he only played about half the defensive snaps in a game ... but that is true of every D-lineman. It stops them from getting worn down and gassed.

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Great point about the DT's

... allthough some stats or examples to back it up would be nice. I just ran through some of recent draftclasses, and it weren’t able to detect small-schoolers panning out with higher regularity. This doesn’t mean you theory isn’t true though.

/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on May 5, 2008 11:42 AM MDT   0 recs

Well, this was a general feeling I got.

I really don’t know where to begin looking up actual data. Not only would I need a list of all the top draft picks for the past 10 or 15 years, I would also need to find out who their college teammates were and where they ended up … I really don’t know where to find that info.

That’s basically why I wanted to get some feedback.

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on May 5, 2008 1:03 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

What i did

I just went through the draftklasses and looked at small-school-talents vs. big-school-talents – that is usually a good fingerpoint at how much help the particular player got from his teammates.

Remember: New England won 18 last year; Oakland's won 19 in a half-decade
/The great Dane - formerly known as Claaaaas!

by Claus Vestergaard on May 6, 2008 3:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

You also have to look at the competition

While I agree that a DT that does it all on his own is much more likely to succeed, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the reverse is true. A DT on a good team in the SEC that dominates is probably ok, since he is playing against close to NFL caliber talent on the offense. Then the benefit of the good team is likely countered by the difficulty of playing against better competition.

I would say, however, that picking the best DT off of the Conference USA champ or something like that might be less of a good idea. Then, the competition is relatively worse, and so the team might have more impact on the DT’s performance.

Overall, I would say that you definitely have a good idea, and I’d love to see some research to determine whether or not the frequency of “busts” is more likely. You might also want to look at how frequently these picks turn into merely average contributors in the pros (not a bust but not a star), though that may be considered a “bust” for a top ten pick.

On your point about Doom, I completely agree. I’m with Shanny on the idea that you should look at results. He could do it in college, so why not give him a chance in the Pros. He seems to be proving Shanny right so far, I just can’t wait to see how much he’s improved this year.

by hai17 on May 5, 2008 12:05 PM MDT   0 recs

While what you say sounds right, it might not hold up to the facts.

Let’s look at the top OL draft picks taken these past couple of years.

Long, Clady, Williams, Albert, Brown, Cherilus, Oath and Baker were all taken in the 1st round this year. Only 1 out of 8 played in the SEC. Only 1 out of 8 played in the Big 10. Albert, Brown, Baker and Cherilus were from average conferences. Clady was from a weak conference.

These are the guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd round: Rachel USC, Pollak Arizona St, Greco Toledo, Zuttah Rutgers, Rinehart N Iowa, Cousins UTEP … Everyone of them from average or small conferences. If you really want to count Pac 10 (and they only have USC), then only 2 from top conferences.

So, no the level of competition isn’t what you might think.

BTW, what makes the SEC and Big 10 such big conferences is the top teams there, not the bottom teams. The guys I say are over rated and often turn into bust are the guys on the big teams… if anything, they face weaker competition than the bad teams in their conference. I am not sure that made sense.

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on May 5, 2008 1:18 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

A couple thoughts

I agree amirebram!

Remember that these players are recruited as high school seniors. They are not done growing, and they have years of collegiate coaching still ahead of them. So with players so raw, what are the schools looking for? The un-coachables: size, speed, strength (although all can be improved somewhat.) The big schools can attract better athletes through name recognition and high-profile games.

But this doesn’t mean they get the best football players. Some players have to grow and develop, but become solid players (but at smaller schools.) Some fall through the cracks, maybe coming from a rural area that big school scouts missed. And some kids who are lower on talent develop incredible drive and simply become better football players.

I’m not writing off talent from larger BCS schools…but there are too many examples of small school players doing well in the NFL to write them off as well.

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on May 5, 2008 1:34 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't want to go THAT far...

... It is very clear that the BCS schools simply have more talent on the average. It goes up and down, but facts are facts. Their average players are also better than average players at non-BCS schools…

That said, we have to remember that even average SEC talent does NOT make it in the NFL.

Simply put, only the most talented players make it in the NFL, and at that level the average talent of a conference has no meaning. Statistically speaking, the guys who make it in the NFL are the far flung fringe “numbers.” Cutler and Williams come out of Vandy—a constant looser. Guys like LT who played in TCU, or Clady who played at Boise end up being taken right up there along with McFadden and Dorsey. It has nothing to do with which conference is better when we talk about individual talent.

But when we talk about who “looked good,” then team play can have a huge impact. And that is what I was trying to address. I think guys like Ellis look better than they really are, since every player around them is slightly better that the competition.

BTW, I am calling the best 100 player each year the most talented … Think about it. There are 32(teams)*53(roster size) = 1700 active players in the NFL season. IF you give each guy a 10 year window (very generous), then you need 170 new players each year. Obviously the math is different. You get near 300 new guys each year, but most of them don’t last more than 3 or 4 years…. so the numbers add up. Only about 100 guys stick around for more than their rookie contract.

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on May 5, 2008 5:15 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

You definitely have a point

I just feel like the better competition makes such a big difference. The average BCS players may not make it in the NFL, but the above average smaller conference players don’t either, while the above average BCS players might.

A somewhat personal example – Mario Williams. I watched him play every down in college. The guy was a freak athletically, but his junior season he disappeared for half of the year. You know the reason? All of the other teams were double and triple teaming him and cut blocking him. Mind you, this is the same guy who was a number 1 draft pick a couple years ago, and tied for third in sacks this year with 14. He didn’t have a terrible line playing with him either, he was playing with two other players who got picked in the NFL draft, but the level of competition he was playing against was higher in the ACC games, and consequently he struggled a bit. While he still had respectable totals, if you watched a couple of his games you wouldn’t have been impressed. Needless to say, I dont think Houston has been disappointed with his production in the pros so far.

I agree that you have a point, I’m just saying that while the teammates are important, the competition is also an important factor as well.

by hai17 on May 5, 2008 8:23 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

That makes sense, but...

I’d take issue with the “bottom teams” comment. With the exception of the Dukes and Baylors of the world (about 1 per conference) I’d contend that the BCS conferences have better teams on average. It may just be a bit of rose colored glasses, but I feel like the number 8 team in a BCS conference is probably as good, on average, as the number 3 team in a non-BCS conference. Of course this depends on the teams, etc, but the level of talent is just so much higher for the BCS conferences as a whole.

Disco Stu definitely makes a good point, that there are the “diamonds in the rough”. I would say that there is somewhat of a sample size bias in that observation though. Since there are a lot more smaller schools than BCS schools, it makes sense that there will be a significant amount of developmental high school players that make it, even though there are far fewer pro players per school than from the BCS schools. I’m definitely not trying to write off smaller conferences – I just think that their successes may seem more remarkable because of the fact that they are smaller conferences. When most of the players in the NFL are from BCS schools, it is more noticeable to be from a smaller school.

by hai17 on May 5, 2008 8:12 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I have my own question

Why is it that DL have to rotate in and out to keep from getting “worn down and gassed”? These guys are making enough to stay in peak cardiovascular condition. I know they take a beating, but so do the offensive linemen. I don’t think we want or need another Sam Adams that can’t make it to the sidelines without stopping for oxygen.

Nothing is at last sacred but the integrity of our own mind. - Emerson

by firstfan on May 5, 2008 12:24 PM MDT   0 recs

one of the reasons is....

the OL knows where the play is going and they push where they need to go. DL on the other hand has to react to the play and chase after the ball carrier…after spending all that time chasing, the DL tends to get worn down faster….also add to the fact that most OL’s are well over 300 lbs and many DE/DL are smaller so they can pursue. OL’s don’t have as far to go and they are making the contact.

fader nation is a conquered nation

by mdierk on May 5, 2008 12:51 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

OK

That makes sense to me. So let’s take this to the next level. Just as improving our LB corps will improve our corners, improving our OL improves our RB because the DL is making contact deeper in the defensive backfield and doing more pursuing and getting worn down faster requiring more depth. Example, Den v GB in Superbowl. The whole thing works together.

Thanks mdierk!

Nothing is at last sacred but the integrity of our own mind. - Emerson

by firstfan on May 5, 2008 1:09 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

exactly.....SB 32

was a classic wearing down of the DL…I remember the NBC announcers saying Gilbert Brown was sucking air and there were no bugs near him….he sucked them all up!

fader nation is a conquered nation

by mdierk on May 5, 2008 1:32 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Well,

The other guys are paid to keep in top cardiovascular shape too. Keep in mind, the O-line executes a plan when they run the ball and sits in their position when they are in pass-pro.

The D-line must read and react to the run game and beat the O-line to the play. In the pass game, they are trying to get around/through the O-line … that’s a much more difficult task than trying to stop someone from getting by you (if you have equal physical strength and agility).

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on May 5, 2008 1:21 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

we'll see just how good these DT will be

when they are facing far superior offensive lines with Olineman who bench press 600 lbs. You will not see Dorsey pushing people around like rag dolls (see that one play in the Auburn game), esp against power running teams. Although I think that players like Ellis and Dorsey will create havoc against denver’s Oline because we just arent as powerful up the middle as say the NYG/Dallas’ Oline. Nalen and Hamilton are good, but really get pushed around by bigger DT’s and they will have a heck of a time handling Dorsey.

by The Villyn on May 5, 2008 10:06 PM MDT   0 recs

I have to make a small comment...

... Nalen and Hamilton don’t get pushed around. These guys have years of quality work to show what they are made of. They didn’t even play last year.

It was Meyers and Lepsis getting pushed around in the 07 season. And Holland doesn’t provide as much power as you think—there is a reason the dude was an unsigned free agent for a while before taking a one year 1 mil deal with us.

And the year before that we had a dysfunctional RT named Foster, and an un-drafted rookie named Pears at LT. That’s why we struggled at goal-line situations in the second half of the 06 season.

I really can’t recall much trouble with our O-line in the 03, 04, or 05 season. We did just fine with Nalen and Hamilton inside.

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on May 5, 2008 10:42 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Great thoughts all around by everybody!

Short replies to to a few folks:

1. Amir – I say this a lot. “One great DT is the same as two”. The idea is that one very good DT makes the other DT look just as good or better. The great DT gets a lot of double teaming, and the other DT has more chances to make tackles on RBs or to rush the QB. DTs also have more effect on DEs than vice versa. Now you have one good DT making the whole DL look good, which helps the entire defense. I’m more of a defensive backs guy myself, but the truth is that the defense is only as good as the DL.

2. Amir (again) – I don’t consider Doom to be unable to play everydown. This would be true of some positions, but in Doom’s case this isn’t a factor at DE. He is our best pass rusher, and will be considered a starter. But consider two things. One, there are better players to bring in for running downs, and two, defensive linemen wear down quickly, and we have a great set of DEs we can rotate. It’s not a knock on Doom that he won’t be in for every play. It’s NOT because he is short and can’t take the pounding. That’s more of an issue with players at RB or WR. Good call; I agree with you brother!

3. Firstfan, Mdierk, Amir – Good question Firstfan. As soon as I read it I got ready to write a response. Mdierk and Amir beat me to the punch, and both gave the right answers. The primary reason is the added physical excertion of having to react instead of pro-active execution. Most plays in the NFL are runs, and the OL, FBs, and TEs just BANG on the DL. A good power runner does even more damage. The offense sets the pace of how fast plays are ran or how much time is spent in the huddle, and the OL know the snap count in advance.

4. Firstfan – About Sam Adams. I agree that Sam was a bust and a dissapointment. However, while it is painful to see a giant DT huffing during a long drive and unable to keep up during “no huddle” offensive schemes, don’t count out the “big uglies”. Is endurance a weakness for these guys? Absolutely. But for the plays they are used (rotated in) they serve a critical purpose. My preference (if we had unlimited funds) would be to have a couple of giant DTs to use for obvious run downs, and at least one more so that they could be rotated with a couple of smaller 1 gap DTs. Every rotation would be either 2 big DTs, or a big DT and an “under tackle”, or smaller DT who gets the glory because the big DT is getting doubled. We may return to the “old days” of multiple 1 gappers, but I really hope not. It’s not a bad thing, just a matter of taste.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on May 5, 2008 10:54 PM MDT   0 recs

Point well taken.

Nothing is at last sacred but the integrity of our own mind. - Emerson

by firstfan on May 6, 2008 11:52 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

A couple of giant DTs

would have to be better than the ones we had. Just putting big bodies out there won’t do it. The big bodies we plugged in last year got run on worse than the smaller ones they replaced. Of course, if we had a giant DT or three with ability that’d be a different matter, but aren’t those in short supply? And if we had three, how many one-gappers would be available to rotate? But it would be interesting if, in next year’s draft, we went for a big body or two in order to implement the big and little lineup you envision.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on May 6, 2008 7:40 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair points

Two things come to mind.

1. Yes, just a big body won’t work. Talent is an issue.

2. In last year’s system, at the start of the year, our DTs ran a strange scheme to support the “run contain” system. They then lost their jobs on the way to us adopting a different, “base – man out” scheme. Talent was an issue, but so was adjustment between schemes.

The magical “3 technique” DTs are in short supply, but they are simply dominant players who happen to be big and fast. 2 Gap, big DTs are still around. See the comments under this story for a short discussion on 3 techs.

3 big DTs is a bit much to ask for. With two you could rotate each of them with 1 gaps. But when you needed 2 big DTs at the same time it would be hard for them to both be rested at the same time too. 2 big DTs would be the best to hope for.

If I could get 3 DTs I would have 2 “1 gaps” in rotation. (This would cost me a player at another position, but in Denver’s case they still use hybrids at CB and SAF (though this looks like the year that they use real safeties). On short yardage I would always have two reasonably fresh DTs to play.

But you are right. 3 DTs on the chart with a couple of under tackles is really asking for too much.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on May 6, 2008 8:04 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Kicker

This is one more reason to have a kicker who can kick off and nail long FGs.

Nothing is at last sacred but the integrity of our own mind. - Emerson

by firstfan on May 7, 2008 11:14 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

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