25 carries over a 16 game season gives you a 400 carry total! I believe the threshold for serious longterm ramifications is far below that figure, but I’m not sure. Few elite backs have been able to tempt fate in such a manner and survive for much longer, but many great ones have fallen victims to such a ridiculous workload. If that’s the cost, I sincerely hope they don’t aim for it.

But I do think he will have a stellar season.

that those numbers are based on the total team rushing yards, not just Selvin’s individual YPG against that team. The numbers you put up would also have to include Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, and Ryan Torain’s numbers, as well as some others. I do believe he will have a good season, though. Here are my projections for each RB for next year:

Young: 1286 yds, 9 TD’s, 4.8 ypc, 14 starts
Pittman: 479 yds, 3TD’s, 4.1 ypc, 2 starts
Hall: 378 yds, 1TD, 4.4 ypc
Torain: 465 yds, 5TD’s, 4.02586 ypc

That’s 2608 yds, which is a lot, but we’re the Broncos, come on. I see Torain getting more carries toward the end of the season, and I factored in a sprained ankle for Selvin. Not bad for your first year as a starter, and I have spent way too much time thinking about this.

To handle the load of 25 carries a game. Maybe I am wrong, but he hasnt played a full season since he was in HS. I would be happy if he got 1500 yards

Look at what Shanny has done. He wants Selvin to be strong between our ten and their ten. If we have to he wants Pitman and Torain to punch it in. I’ll say it again, ‘benching 360 lbs. five times will make many many great stff-arms this year. Between the ten and the ten Selvin will have room to move. If he does not get a touchdown, and we are inside the ten, Shanny will let Pitman and Torain prove their toughness.

With Cuttler healthy I think teams will fear our passing game. This should open up things for Selvin. With Selvin running between their ten and our ten he would have to average 7yrds a carry, 18 carries, 16 games, to reach 2000. This is not a rediculous number.

Between the ten and the ten, if his average is six yards, he needs to carry the ball just over twenty times a game.

Selvin not only has a great attitude as a person…he is proving something to both us and himself. I like this.

Selvin 2108 yrds rushing go Selvin

Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combined for 2,185 yards in 395 carries AND Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew tallied 1,970 yards in just 390 rushes… is Selvin either of those pairs rolled into one guy? I just don’t think so.

No, Selvin will not run for 2000 yards.

His average, durability and long runs would have to go way up. He would need to flash Adrian Peterson level skills (and be repeatedly running off of Hutchinson’s enormous hip, ideally) to get there. No way does his average rise dramatically with more work… He is not the type to wear down a defense and exploit them for a big run late, although the whole stable may be capable of this. I couldn’t find stats for it, but I recall TD busting loose for a big run late in games fairly regularly – leading to his 2000 yards.

What I could see is 2000 yards from scrimmage for Selvin. He has shown some decent ability to catch out of the backfield, and if he turned out say 50 yards a game in the air, he would only need 75 on the ground to hit 1000. 50 is realistic – Brian Westbrook hangs right around that number each year, and consistently puts up 2000 yards from scrimmage (when healthy). OTOH, Reid gives him the ball close to the goal line, and throws to the RB far more than Shanny would like. I do think it is a great way to get the ball to an explosive playmaker in space, and limit the wear and tear.

Mike Clark’s point though, is the tough one – I think it is very true that Selvin will get the ball for 80 yards of the field, and not near the goal line. This suggests to me he will need to be hitting on a decently long run every game to even approach these numbers.

So I will say
- 2000 on the ground – no way, even LDT in his MVP season only ran for 1800+.
- 2000 total yards from scrimmage is doable, but takes Westbrook-like skills and a lot of HB screens and passes to happen.
- 1500 total yards is more likely, unless my man starts shaking people consistently for 50+ yard runs.

I’ll be happy. I think 1500 yards is about the most we could ask of Selvin. Not that 2,000 yards is impossibe, just highly improbable.

I also don’t think Selvin is going to have many touchdown runs under 6 yards, seeing as how my assumption is that Denver goes with more size inside the 5 yardline.

I’m sure all of our prognosticating will be WAY OFF come the 3rd play of the season, but I’m hoping Selvin can stay relatively healthy (nobody stays 100% healthy for 100% of the season) and become enough of a threat to pull a defensive safety towards the line of scrimmage.

Truly, that’s really what we’re really hoping for here: a more consistent running game that can dominiate in stretches and score with some level of regularity. If that happens, we’ll see more room in the passing lanes, and the offense will be one of the top 7 or 8 in the NFL.

Of course, we could use some good defense, which as we all know is one of the secrets behind a good offense.

It is very unlikely but this guy has already defied the odds once. Maybe in a few years.

Selvin will have 1300
Pittman 200
Torain: 400
Hall:300

stranger things have happened!