As of this writing, most MHR members polled in "...Part One" believe that we win 5 games in the first half of the '08 season.  This puts us on track for a 10 win season and a very real possibility of a wild card bearth in the playoffs.

The good news is that the schedule gets even easier in the second half.  On top of that, while some teams are maintaining a level of play, Denver is expected to improve.  Denver has a lot of new faces, and should be hitting their stride about now.

Read on...

via www.usu.edu

CLE is a team that presents with playmaking explosiveness all over the offense.  It is a game I expect to win (on the road), but it is fraught with peril.  WRs like Stallworth, Edwards, and Jurivicius combine with TE great Winslow and solid TE Heiden and a RB like Lewis.  Add in the depth and potential at QB and you have a team that could shock a few teams.

I like the match-up in terms of systems, but it would be foolish to overlook player match-ups.  We'll need to be firing on all cyclinders by the midway point of the season to win games like this.

via content.answers.com

Along with the MIA game, this is a must win.  ATL figures to be one of the worst teams this year, having lost their (jerk of a coach) in a bizzare maner last year, and suffering the loss of their QB (likewise bizzare) and even their top CB (to the raiders).  You just can't lose games on the schedule that look this easy on paper.  We should own the Falcons in terms of both personnel and scheme.  (You think our DT situation is questionable?  ATL will start two guys at DT who were back-ups on the team last year.  Ugh!)

These guys again? 

Both teams should be showing improvement as the year goes on.  Two factors go into this game.  One, what is the injury situation for both teams?  Does Walker get a football (or night-life) injury again, and / or does Denver suffer an injury on the OL or to DRob at this point?  The other factor is a combination of homefield and coaching, which goes to Denver.

I'm guessing that the first game of the season could go either way.  The second is likely to go to Denver, but may still be a close run affair.

via www.herro.com

This is a young team with some potential future talent.  Like the raiders (and Denver themselves), this is a team that should improve as the year goes on.  Playing NE twice a year should be good practice, and beating on MIA should build confidence.  But this team is stuck in the Patriots division until the Patriots run out of gas, and that doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon.  It seems the NYJs can't catch a break.

There shouldn't be enough firepower to match Denver on either side of the ball.  It's another road game I like for Denver.

via www.fanstopcentral.com

Yet another team that will have gotten better as the year goes on, they still won't have an answer at QB.  This is a home game Denver should win.

via www.nfl-football-teams.com

The Panthers (in my opinion) face a better situation on defense with a new scheme on defense and players returning from injury on the offensive side of the ball.  They may surprise folks with the running game this year too.  But I think the Panthers are an enigma.  They have the potential to move up, but could just as easily drop.  Denver should be ahead of the curve by this point.

via blogs.kansascity.com

The Bills are in a rough spot.  They are coming off of a losing season, and the defense is anchored by a DT (Stroud) who is in decline.  Their reloading season filled some holes, but only shored up the team to be built up next year.

via i9.photobucket.com

What a way to end the season!  If we are competitive for a playoff spot, this is the game that may make the difference.  Not only is SD a good team, this is an away game.  We are as good or as bad as we'll get by this point, so we deserve whatever happens this game.  If we deserve the playoffs, we should win.  (On the other hand, one of the teams may have a bearth locked, and may just use back-ups to play).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Likely wins - BUFF, NYJs, ATL, KC

Toss ups - CLE, oak, CAR.  CLE I expect to win, but they have enough firepower to be in the toss-up column.  CAR could surprise us as well.  I like our chances at home late in the season against oak.

Tough game - SD. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Season overview

In the division I break down the games this way.  SD is going to be tough.  We won't sweep them.  I believe we lose one game for sure, and the other game is perhaps 1 in 4.  oak is on the other side of the equation.  We win one, but the other is 50/50.  I think we have a shot at sweeping the Chiefs, with one game a win and the other 3 in 4.

Adding up the values (two games each), we have:

KC - 1.75     oak - 1.5     SD - .25

This would have us coming out of the division games with 3.5 wins.

__________________________________________________

Next, I'm looking at the NFC South.

TB - 1     ATL - 1     CAR - .5     NO - .5

Total so far for the season is 6.5 wins.

__________________________________________________

Then the AFC East:

MIA - 1     NE - 0     NYJ - 1     BUF - 1

This gets us to 9.5

__________________________________________________

This leaves JAX and CLE.  Assuming we split these games (both teams look solid), this leaves us with 10 wins.  The remaining .5 gives us a reasonable shot at 11 games, but I still hold to my 10 win prediction.

__________________________________________________

I know that a few fans (led by Zappa) have the team penciled in for 13 wins.  It could happen, but I think everything has to fall just right for that to happen.  Don't take my prediction for 10 wins as a negative.  It's an easy enough schedule, but we must remember the recent past when it comes to bringing in new faces.  

Positives -

1. Jay Cutler not only has a full season behind him, but now has a condition treated (and this should propel his game forward).
2. The depth at WR is INSANE!
3. The DEs look great and deep.
4. The CBs look great and deep.
5. The TEs look great and deep.
6. The RB corp looks solid.

Negatives -

1. While we have good depth on the OL, we have two serious injury potentials (Nalen and Hamilton).  While Clady is good enough to start as a rookie, he will still go through a rookie learning curve.
2. To fix the DT position, we brought in a question mark.  On the one hand, DRob doesn't miss games, and is the kind of one gap shooter we want in the system.  On the other hand, his knees look scary, and his track record isn't solid.  We also signed a midround rookie.  If he turns out to be good, it will be hard to believe it happens in his first year.
3. We brought in depth at SAF, but didn't upgrade the position (unless late rounder Barrett both makes the team and plays like a first rounder).
4. While Denver's change in scheme is back to an old Denver scheme, many of the Denver defensive players are new to the team.  The adjustment won't be as steep as last year, but there should be some adjustment.
5. Like last year, a lot of new starters.

With the team showing improvement (we hope) moving through the season, this could be a new team by the playoffs, IF they can get in.

By my reasoning, the must win games (the "easy" ones) are:

MIA, ATL, TB, KC (at least once, but hopefuly twice), BUF, and NYJs.

The other five or six games need to come from the toss-ups (sweeping KC would make this a game easier):

JAX, NO, oak (like KC, we need at least one), CLE, and CAR.

An upset would be great, but NE and SD are darn good teams.  I know we have owned SD in he past, and we always seem to play NE well.  But I'm just playing the odds here.  Assuming we lose both SD games and the NE game (very possible), we would have to win all of the rest of our games to make 13-3.  That's a high hill to climb.

Thus, the games to watch this season are the crucial toss-ups, and here is where they are played:

• JAX - home
• NO - home
• oak - one each
• CLE - away
• CAR - away

A split right down the middle!

Well, I'm sure everyone has some thoughts on all of this.  Let's hear them!

Go Broncos!