Two Keys to Success in 2008
The first key I see to the success of the Broncos in 2008 is the performance of # 63, Dewayne Robertson. I know that is a lot of pressure to put on the shoulders of one player, but I doubt if the big guy from Tennessee spends a lot of time worrying about what some old codger in Alaska thinks anyway. There is some method to my thinking. The first is the defensive coordinator adage "One great DT is worth two". (I conveniently borrowed this adage from HT). This was further explained by HT in his now epic post Defensive Line Gaps and Techniques published in early March of this year. See here for the entire post and comments. In short HT explains
“While it is nice to have two great DTs, one domineering DT can create enough tension on the line to make an average "other" DT look great. In short, we really need just one DT to really work out to solve our defensive line woes (and to help out our LBs). “
If Robertson is the dominant player envisioned by the Jets when they selected him as the fourth player chosen in the draft, he can make Marcus Thomas great while Thomas continues to mature as a DT. I have a feeling Carlton Powell will make the 53 man roster and that leaves the winner of the McKinley/Harris/Mustard battle as the fourth DT. They will probably all play a great deal to save wear and tear on Robertson’s knee. If our DTs are this dominant we will be stopping the run up the middle. This plays directly into the speed of our LBs. It allows K2 to escape many blocks by OL and to make the number of tackles made by DJ last year, except at the line of scrimmage instead of five yards in our backfield. Boss can deal more effectively with TEs, blocking as well as covering pass-catching TEs. Now all of a sudden we are putting seven men up front more and more and eight less and less. This allows our Corners to take some chances knowing there are two Safetys behind them. This equates to more picks and more coverage sacks. In addition, the dominance at DT makes Offensive Coordinators focus more on them and then the strength of our DEs really comes out. DOOM gets his 15+ sacks and Moss and Crowder continue to improve.
This gets better. With the dominance provided by our DTs thanks to Robertson, we average three more three and outs by the defense per game. This translates into roughly six more offensive plays per game and six fewer defensive plays. I like our chances when Cutler and Co. have six additional snaps per game.
So what happens if Robertson is merely “very good” rather than dominant? Much of the same as above. The difference is that Thomas will have to take bigger strides sooner to become “very good” also.
Lastly, what happens if Robertson is a complete bust? It just means that two of the McKinley/Harris/Mustard battle make the squad instead of one. That is not all bad either. This scenario even leaves room for two season-ending injuries.
The second key is the performance of Anchorages’ own, Chris Kuper. If Kuper remains the powerful Offensive Lineman that he was in the Minnesota game last year, it doesn’t make any difference what position he plays. He can play Guard or Tackle, right or left. Hell, he can probably snap the ball as well. (I think he is the back-up to Leach in some situations). My point is that in short yardage situations we get three yards insterad of one. On first and ten we get six instead of three. In the red zone we get seven instead of three. We go back to the days of Bronco grind it out, own the TOP, keep the other offense on the bench football. In my humble opinion, even if Clady is a total bust, Kuper has the size, speed, strength, and IPS to make the same kind of impact. In pass protection, it will give Cutler the extra few milliseconds to make the life of any DB miserable, regardless of receiver.
I conclude by saying that if both of my keys pan out, Mike Clark and Zappa’s la la land is not unrealistic at all. 13-3 is THERE. If one pans out ant the other is a bust, the 10-6 goal is realistic. If they both fall on their kiester, well we just made those boobs at ESPN look smart.
I don’t like that outcome.
Camp starts soon.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
11 recs |
22 comments
Comments
It all starts up front... on booth sides.
This post bring joy to my heart. I couldn’t agree more about the play of Robertson. Your analysis on DT causing havoc in the middle frees up the ends -linebackers -safeties – and corners. I think a lot of the members of MHR are big fans of the DT and that is why we all wanted to Draft one so bad. I am extremely happy with the bringing in of D.Rob and the draft of Powell. I think this was the right move. I would have loved to have Dorsey or Ellis. But they were not going to fall to us. Picking up D.Rob and saving our other picks netted us picks like Hillis, Torian, Larson, Jack Williams … maybe a whole lot more next year or the loss of Foxworth. Can you imagine the cost to move up for one of these guys to our draftees list?
I am extremely happy with the draft and D.Rob. D. Rob needs to step up and provide DT leadership and show our young studs how it is done. Now if Powell (who I think is the new 3rd Tackle) lives up to his hype here on MHR, I think we will be sitting pretty. I love that Powell is a big time run stuffer.
As to the second key performance… I think it is the whole 0-Line. Seems to me we have enough people to shuffle around to play the spots… but can they play as a unit. Playing as a Unit is what makes the Denver o-line system work. I think with Nalen at the helm at camp as the leader (shinning example of awesome lineman) will go a long ways to forcing the newer and the younger guys to play as a team. In truth, I think that being a unit player rather than just a good individual player may be the difference maker of who starts up front for us this year. But then again we usually only bring in good unit type individuals that fit our system.
Can’t wait for Camp! My prayers are for extremely ferocious position battles that are injury free.
by YellowStoneBronco on Jul 24, 2008 9:00 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
the second key is the entire O Line. I focused on Kuper because he seemed to have two sides last year and if that kick-ass dominant side is what we see all 2008 it could make Mr. Cutler’s life more enjoyable. Plus it will give Guru something to report from camp! As for
extremely ferocious position battles that are injury free.all I can say is Amen, brother!
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 24, 2008 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it tomorrow yet?
Looking at my title after I type it…that doesn’t make any sense. But I’m sticking with it!
Can’t wait for TC to start and reviews to start coming in. So many questions, but so much potential…I can’t remember the last time I was this excited for football!
Actually, I think I say that every year, but this time I mean it! :o)
~Uffdah
by Disco_Stu on Jul 24, 2008 9:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I am so excited
I am headed to Denver to watch the Dallas game plus a practice or two. I haven’t bothered going to a preseason game since the sixties!
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 24, 2008 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are expecting your reports as well!
If you can’t get to a PC maybe we can think of another way….Pigeon maybe??
-TSG
www.milehighreport.com
by John Bena on Jul 24, 2008 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Owl. Haha!
There is nothing you cannot be, there is nothing you cannot do. There is nothing you cannot have.
by sirsam on Jul 24, 2008 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am prepared to chip in my 2 cents
be it by pigeon or owl or smoke signal.
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 24, 2008 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post firstfan!
Everything starts in the trench. Also, I see you’re contemplating putting one foot in la-la-land. Welcome. 13-3 baby!
by Mike Clark on Jul 24, 2008 9:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I will know
by the Dallas game if I am ready to join you and Zappa in la la land. Thanks for the comment.
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 24, 2008 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Recommended
FirstFan knows what all good coaches know. The game starts and ends in the trenches.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jul 24, 2008 2:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks HT. It means a lot coming from you.
BTW I thought the lions were going to eat the sheep.
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 24, 2008 4:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still trying to think of a new sig. lol
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jul 27, 2008 3:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure you will come up with a good one!
If you glean any of styg’s posts you can come up with a few. Give the six year old a hug!
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 27, 2008 4:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good line play indeed necessary
I think most fans, and other teams, believe the key weakness for the Broncos over the last few years has been line play – both offensive and defensive lines. Obviously, the disappointing play of George Foster, and Lepsis unable to regain his old form prior to injury were key let downs. However, I believe the Broncos realized over the last 3-4 years they need to get a little bigger at guard, while still maintaining the quickness of their zone system. Hence, the acquisition of Holland (320) and the drafting of Kuper (305). Once Nalen retires, and Hamilton is replaced, every offensive lineman will be around 300 lbs. or more. The need to get bigger and stronger is as much a need in pass protection as in short yardage run blocking. For most of Plummer’s days as a Bronco he had the line bull rushed into his face and one tackle getting blown by. They can’t have that if they want Cutler to reach his potential. I personally feel they have the players to have a very good line now. They just have to gel and work as a unit. I do not think Kuper is any more key than Clady or the others, but they need them all to play well together. If Kuper plays great, but Clady is a bust, and they have injuries again to Nalen and others, then they will still have troubles.
On the defensive line Gerrard only had one good year with the Broncos (his first- 2005), and Trevor Pryce was becoming too inconsistent and injury prone (his 2007 season was very injury plagued in Baltimore), so they let him go. Then of course, they had the failed Bates experiment (or run contain system) in 2007, which created a revolving door at D-Tackle. And Ekuban and Moss get injured. So the D-Line would still be rated as inadequate by most outsiders, until they prove otherwise. However, I also think they have the horses on d-line (short of key injuries again) to improve dramatically. But once again, I do not think Robertson is anymore key than Thomas, Dumervil, Moss, Crowder. They all need to play well, cause they will use their typical 8-9 man rotation, and they will often be using an 8-man front. They need good D-TAckle play and good DE play. They need to be able to stop the run and get pressure at times with only four.
I think Robertson’s impact will be most helpful in short yardage and goal line, where the impact of the 8 man defense is sometimes neutralized, cause offensive line splits are narrowed and most teams just man up (zone) for power blocking. In those situations a tackle has to be able to hold and shed the point of attack. Unless Thomas develops into that ability, Robertson will be our most proven player in that situation.
However, much of the time, Slowik will go back to using Lynch in an 8-man in the box to stop the run. Like Coyer’s defense each lineman only has to contain one gap in the run, when there are 8 men down. A tackle does not have to be a stud to do that (except in short yardage). The weakness to the 8 man defense is on the edge (cause that is still only one gap, the “D” gap, but it is a big gap to cover cause it is extends to the sideline). That “D” gap in the 8-man could be assigned to an OLB, CB, or DE. So the timing of the assignments, and consistency have an effect. Of course, the biggest challenge in the 8-man defense is pass coverage. This is where I believe a key weakness in the past (Coyer’s defense) was the man to man coverage on good TEs and backs. Our linebackers and safeties could not get that done when we really needed them to. Coyer would often still only rush four or five and try to back into a zone, which still did not work against the good passing teams with good TEs and backs, cause those players were always open quickly for 4-8 yard gains. Indy and Clark, and the Chargers and Gates, would just nickel and dime us down the field, until they busted a big one. I really hope that Slowik uses more man under coverage, and I hope we can cover it.
So I agree Robertson’s play will be a factor in how good our defense is, cause short yardage and goal line defense is key. But I think a bigger factor is how well we man up on the underneath routes. That means Boss Bailey, DJ, and the safeties (McCree).
by The Gun Young on Jul 24, 2008 8:41 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
GREAT POINTS
I think that you covered the “historical perspective” quite well! I don’t think that Clady will be a bust anytime soon. Barring INJURIES, I really like what I am hearing from both sides of the line, but again, barring injury!
by metalman5050 on Jul 27, 2008 9:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post, firstfan
Underscores many of the concerns some of us have expressed – but in a more robust and positive way. Love the explanation of how success cascades back form the D-Line…. If Clady/Kuper and Robertson/Thomas dominate the trenches, this can be a very good team.
Recommended!
by jonahsilas on Jul 25, 2008 1:30 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks jonahsilas
Gun Young makes a good point. The keys are O Line and D Line play, not specific players. I just see these two guys a typifying the respective group. Camp starts today!
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 25, 2008 3:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
I could care less who is down there – if they work well as a unit. Especially with the zone blocking scheme on the O-Line this seems critical.
Hooray for camp!
by jonahsilas on Jul 25, 2008 4:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent analysis FF
I like the comparisons and especially the Forest before the Trees. Yes, it’s defense that will win the day and the line is where it all begins. Great post
"If Denver beats us, I'll walk back to Detroit" - Alex Karras
by Denver Diehard on Jul 26, 2008 6:39 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Diehard.
Perhaps we can make a joint post from camp. I will email you with details.
What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson
by firstfan on Jul 26, 2008 1:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I LIKE...
what Mike is doing in camp! He is trying to minimize injuries with the “full speed-half speed” program. GOOD IDEA!
by metalman5050 on Jul 27, 2008 9:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

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