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Areas of Concern Going Into '08

We have spent quite a bit of the reloading season doing what fans do.  We've gotten excited about draft picks that we hadn't even considered before the draft.  We've also looked at FA pick-ups as potential saviours, regardless of their records with other teams.

Now don't get me wrong.  I'm not a pessimist, and this story isn't going to get you down.  But just like a good coach, I think good fans should take a look at everything going into the season and take a good, hard look at where we are strong and where we are weak.  Why?  Because knowing where we are weak (and admitting it to ourselves) is knowledge, and knowledge is the first step to fixing any problem.

To show that I'm balanced in my thinking, let me point out the positives.  Our QB is already good, and with his disease under control I believe he breaks out this year.  He also has a terrific and deep group of receivers and a terrific set of TEs.  The passing game looks excellent.  We also have several good looks at RB, and the zone block system never lets us down.

Over on the defense, we have perhaps the best and deepest CB group in the NFL, and we have some great players at DE.

But let's consider some other issues too (and what can be done)...

Star-divide

First, the LB group has some questions.  Reports from Guru and others look like Webster might win the MLB spot, but Webster is still overpursuing.  Boss looks like he will be our TE coverage guy (it's a great thing for a defense when the SAM can be the coverage on a TE), but he's having some knee problems.  Let's hope they are minor.  Winborn isn't looking too great, and we had him pegged as a back-up for DJ.

What does all of this mean?  Styg wrote a terrific story about concerns with Boss, and the story (and comments) went into detail about concerns in depth.  The sure thing we have for talent is DJ.  While I am hopeful (even positive) about how the LBs will do, there is the potential for problems.  Either Webster or Niko needs to be solid at MLB, and we need for Boss to stay healthy.  I'm not thrilled that we are going to have the helmet communications system on the defense on our WILL LB.  Yes, DJ is the most experienced and best LB we have, but that doesn't speak well for our MLB situation.  I hope we didn't err in moving DJ out of the MLB position.

On the OL we have a few issues as well.  Nalen's knee is hurt (at least the MRI doesn't show a problem), and Kuper's hand is broken.  Kuper will likely recover and can probably play anyway.  Nalen's knee may be an issue though.  Holland is overweight (which is also a commitment issue), and spending time losing weight instead of doing drills.  K-Lich isn't looking good from the reports (but it's his first year) and neither is Harris.  Clady will be fine, but let's remember that he's going to make rookie mistakes (Doom is also schooling him, but that's a tribute to Doom's pro bowl potential more than a knock on Clady).  Hamilton remains a hard hit and a concussion away from retirement.

At QB Ramsey is not looking very good, but at least we have Hackney.  If Hackney can stay out of DUI trouble, then I won't worry about our QB depth.

My biggest concern remains DT.  We just lost our only DT from the draft (fifth rounder Powell), and the only other acquisition from the reloading season doesn't practice much (DRob) because we don't want to risk injury.  This means that we need for Thomas to step up in a big way and hope for good things from DRob if we are going to make headway stopping the run this year.

Another concern I have is Ekuban.  A run stopping DE, it looks like he is being moved to DT.  While he can handle the job (I'm expecting our system to use a lot of one gap at DT), there is little doubt that he is more effective at DE.  That he is being moved shows two things.  First, we have a problem at DT.  Second, we lose our best run stopping DE.  This may not sound like a big deal if you really want pass rushers on both sides of the line, but most plays in football are runs to the inside on the strong side, and it is a rule of thumb to have a run stopper at L-DE on most plays.

Is this bad news for the season?  Not at all.  We just need to look at these issues and see how Shanahan looks at them when making adjustments.

You'll notice I haven't mentioned Marshall and his potential suspension (which is in the air at the time of this writing).  That's because I believe the solution is simple.  Royal looks like pure magic in camp so far, and may just jump off of the STs depth chart (as a returner) because of too much value at WR.  Stokley remains solid at slot.  Between Colbert, Jackson, and Royal, I believe that someone can fill in a few games if required.  Remember that it was Marshall that shined last year when it was supposed to be Walker in the starring role.

I also haven't mentioned the K or P situation.  Both seem to be doing well, despite some earlier concerns from many MHR members.

So what solutions do members see for these positions?  Is Larsen an answer in the OLB area?  Have I overstated concerns for the OL?  Are the DTs going to get a boost from a last minute FA signing?  What other solutions do you see?

Again, I see improvement going into this year.  I still hold to my 10-6 prediction, and see us on the fence for a wild card position.  If we get the wild card, I think we will have improved enough over the course of the season for a potential win or two in the playoffs.  I also still believe that '09 will be even better.  So please don't bash me for being a pessimist.  Share your thoughts on why we will overcome some of the points I've brought up, or share (if you'd like) why they concern you too.

Poll
The concerns in this post are...
Overblown. We are going to rock, baby!
9 votes
Somewhat of an issue. We need to fix some things.
62 votes
Oh my God! We're toast!
7 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

7 recs  |  Comment 67 comments

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So it boils down to

LB and DT. Which in the grand scheme of things, isn’t too bad for this team. We had so many questions going into camp, it looks like we have solved at least some of them. Our K and P look to be alright right now, but we’ll see once the action is live. One of the biggest Q’s was Marshall, and he isn’t showing any effects of his injury, so any suspension he (possibly) receives will be it and at least it should be at the beginning of the season and as you said, we have a lot of decent bodies at WR now to hold the fort down while he is out. All in all, I think this year is already shaping up to exceed my expectations. Preseason games will be really important.

And…. If Ramsey has a bad preseason, I expect him to be cut. I was thinking Sapp was a goner too, but it depends on the health of Pittman and Hillis.

Owning the Patriots since September 9, 1960

by Darin H on Aug 2, 2008 4:39 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Pittman is being considered more for HB.

I think the FB race is between Hillis and Sapp. M. Bell was already a goner. I also think Ramsey is in major trouble.

LB and DT only worry me because we couldn’t stop the run last year, and it could shape up that way again if we don’t look good in the preseason.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 5:59 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sapp and Hackney

I don’t think there’s any way that Cecil is not on the final 53. Hillis is just too inexperienced and Pittman doesn’t seem to really want to handle the FB role (or have experience at it).

Hackney has been impressive in camp…and Ramsey has continued to look bad. I think he can chanllenge for that backup spot (but I bet they keep all three).

by UnarmingMermaid on Aug 2, 2008 8:14 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope we don't keep three...

This year the last couple guys cut this year are going to be very painful. I would much rather see Ramsey shown the door.

by YellowStoneBronco on Aug 3, 2008 9:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as Ekuban goes

I think he is the one that wanted to move to DT-so he could have a chance at making the team--because of the talent and depth at DE . EE played both in 2006 and did a great job ( around 8 sacks ) so I think we will be ok at DT because we have depth there also
I am more worried about LB- MLB in particular, I had some high hopes for K2 and I hope he shows improvement soon. IF Webster can be so good at MLB why did he not play there last year and DJ at Will-—it makes it look like we had 2 LB’s playing out of their natural positiona or so it would seem-how does that happen ( we may need to take a good look at our LB’s coach ?? )

by okiebroncosfan on Aug 2, 2008 4:58 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing I forgot to mention in the post

...was that Moss isn’t looking so hot either. This doesn’t bother me too much, as I had him in mind as either being excellent or not being a factor. But I think Ek would make the team as a starter opposite Doom. Doom is a pro-bowl talent, whether he gets voted in or not. But I might disagree about our depth at DT.

You make a good point in your second paragraph too. I think DJ does well wherever he goes. Having been second in the League in tackles at MLB, I wasn’t in favor of moving hm back to WILL (even though it is his “natural” position). Wherever he is, we’re ok. But in the scheme of things, the MLB is a little more important than WILL. If Niko and Webster are neck and neck, I guess we have depth at MLB, but not supermen at the position (if Webster has the lead and is still overpursuing).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

IMO

Moss has started to come on in camp a little. The coaches absolutely reemed him a couple of times in the first week; however, I’ve seen a marked improvement in his play and attitude.

by UnarmingMermaid on Aug 2, 2008 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's very good to hear!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 2:55 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guru has just reported the same thing.

That’s very good to hear!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 4, 2008 2:59 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Line change
My biggest concern remains DT. We just lost our only DT from the draft (fifth rounder Powell), and the only other acquisition from the reloading season doesn’t practice much (DRob) because we don’t want to risk injury. This means that we need for Thomas to step up in a big way and hope for good things from DRob if we are going to make headway stopping the run this year.

Another concern I have is Ekuban. A run stopping DE, it looks like he is being moved to DT. While he can handle the job (I’m expecting our system to use a lot of one gap at DT), there is little doubt that he is more effective at DE. That he is being moved shows two things. First, we have a problem at DT. Second, we lose our best run stopping DE. This may not sound like a big deal if you really want pass rushers on both sides of the line, but most plays in football are runs to the inside on the strong side, and it is a rule of thumb to have a run stopper at L-DE on most plays.

I’m just seeing Obf saying what I’ve written here – I read that Shanahan is convinced that his DE’s are fully ready for the season and offered a chance for Ek to stick with the team by moving to DT. This seems to indicate that someone has stepped up against the run, at least in Mike’s eyes. denver-broncos-denver.com has noted several times this week that in his opinion, Moss is doing very well against the run, Crowder has gotten good marks there as well at L-DE. D-Rob has said several times that while it’s nice that Mike is resting him more, the whole issue of the knees is overblown. Perhaps not later in his career, but I’m glad he feels that way. I think we’re Ok.

LB concerns me more – I have a sneaking hope that Woodyeard steps up and can back up Boss.

Atwater for the Hall!

by Emmett Smith on Aug 2, 2008 5:04 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points all!

I’m glad to hear good news about Moss. I had heard some negatives, so perhaps you are getting a better scoop. I also agree that we are good at DE.

I very much like Crowder at L-DE. He’s a good blend of run/pass defense.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

According to the HC, Webster and K2 are neck and neck. He said Webster had a great offseason and looks good. The Broncos got spoiled with Al Wilson since 1999. I am not as concerned about the LB’s as some. Look, if there is any spot I have my concerns it would be DT. The run defesne starts there. Plus the reports coming out of the camp is the defensive players are happy with the system they have reinstalled. They guys were saying we know what we are doing again. That to me speaks volumes. The OL is always gonna be steady. I think Shanny got depth in case Nails is little slow regaining himself. If anything I think the OL will be fine. Look at last year with an beat OL and top 10 running the ball.

by broncfanstuckinsd on Aug 2, 2008 5:14 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff BFS

It’s sure is hard not to trust our OL. I also agree that it’s great to know our guys like the system. That’s a BIG plus.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 6:04 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The way I see it..

It’s the first week of camp and most of these concerns should be dampened until the end of the preseason.

I agree Boss’ health is something to keep an eye on, as depth at LB is an area of concern. I would also like to see Woodyard get a backup spot, BB.
I see Niko as our starter at MLB. There’s doubt because nobody knows about him, but the kid is SMART and plays with FIRE on gameday. For what it’s worth, I distinctly remember his name being called in a Seattle game last season after he went into rage-mode and blew somebody up ala Romo. I thought to myself, “Man, the broncos need to get some young and hungry guys like that on the team.” Well apparently they felt the same way, and needless to say I am looking forward to seeing more intensity from the defense this season. I’d like to see him get in the weight room and add some size and strength to really show people who’s who at the MLB, but I feel like the “competition” is really about getting some depth at the spot and having two capable guys taking reps who feel comfortable with the scheme and rest of the starters and vice versa, rather than finding out who the actual starter is. They may be “neck and neck” right now as far as the media knows, but there will be no question after a couple weeks. Also Larsen is NOT an OLB answer, although he could be a very good MLB in the future if he can get his technique and body up to the pro level.

As far as DT.. OK first Ekuban, I don’t believe he is being “moved to DT.” I think it’s probably more likely that he’s being lined up at DT in certain formations to see how he looks and what he’s capable of there. (SEE: last season’s game @ Indy) Yes I did see that interview where he talked about doing whatever it takes to make the team, but I also know Shanahan likes to say things to players to get them motivated to step their game up.
It does suck that Powell went down, but he’s a rookie and has never played a down in the NFL, you don’t mention Kenny Peterson, Josh Mallard, or Alvin McKinley, who all made some big plays for the Broncos at the end of last season. No they are not names but at this point we need some of these no-name guys to STEP IT UP and make names for themselves. (SEE: Dumervil)

Concern for the O-line is just, but I also feel we are only seeing some very preliminary looks, especially with Holland TFTP. The coaches are throwing some guys into the mix and seeing what they’ve got. For instance, I can’t see Harris as seriously competing for starting RT, but in the first week of camp we might as well get him some reps and see what he can do. (Not much from what I’ve heard) Also I’ve heard that it was in fact Clady getting the better of Doom and actually pancaking him once or twice.

I agree with Darin also and say cut Ramsey. (though I doubt it would happen) He’s soft and inaccurate and will never be more than a clipboard and visor in the NFL (and he ain’t no Kube). Hackney plays like he’s got a pair.

I see the defense coming up big this year with youth, speed, and intensity. We saw a lot of confusion from the D last season that I believe came from over-thinking. I would get so frustrated watching them and just wanting them to attack the play more. Like, run to the ball and tackle the guy.. This led to Champ being our best LB last year.. Like BFinSD said, the players feel like they know what they’re doing now and they can just REACT to plays. This will make a huge difference this year. HUGE.

I am with you on 10-6 as a realistic goal. IMHO this is the first year we get to see “The New Style” Denver Broncos. This is the prototype for our team o’ the future. No not all the pieces are in place yet, but I really like the kind of players we have in camp, and I am really excited to see what they can put together. I would like to see some more PRIDE and INTENSITY from the team which has been in decline since we lost some of our heart & soul guys over the last few years. Hopefully some of these guys are warriors and can get us back on the path to glory.

Marshall will not be suspended.

OK that’s my 2ยข. Cheers!

GO BRONCOS!!

by BringBackOrange on Aug 2, 2008 6:02 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Welcome to the site BringBackOrange.

I enjoyed your take …

I would also like to give props on your screen name selection, I would love he Orange Jersey to come back too.

by YellowStoneBronco on Aug 3, 2008 9:51 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

We are due

for a jersey change. I hold out hope for predominantly orange, but part of the change was based on marketing factors, and orange has never really fared well in the marketplace.

If we ever change back to predominantly orange, it will have to be a principled decision, not a marketing one. The good news? We have exactly the right kind of owner to understand that and make that choice.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 3, 2008 11:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the uniforms...

I think the orange make a good 3rd uniform.

I LOVE the throwbacks however.

by UnarmingMermaid on Aug 3, 2008 11:49 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of good thoughts BBO!

I like Niko to start too. I’m reading that Webster has the edge in starts right now, and the race is close. Webster might get some edge from being an older vet (more savvy), but I agree with you and what I’d like to see.

On Ek, I’m afraid that it looks at this point less like getting some looks at DT and actually being moved in the depth chart. I may be wrong (I hope I am), but it’s looking more like a permanent move.

I didn’t mention Peterson, Mallard, or McKinley because I don’t see them as starters. They can spell Thomas or DRob, but I don’t see them as consistent play makers.

We agree on Ramsey. I think he’s in danger, and I think Hackney easily edges him.

Good chance on Marshall not getting a suspension. If he does, I’m thinking two (and no more than 4). No suspension is a possibility with Marshall’s “Looking forward to the raiders MNF” comment (words to that effect).

Again, lots of great points that you make!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 6:14 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

DT

I know Defensive Tackle is a concern for most of us on this site. Given our strength at End we will probably keep four tackles and five Ends. It seems to me that D-Rob and Marcus Thomas are for sure. McKinley is a pretty fair run stopper so I add him as the third. This leaves Stevin Harris or Mallard for the fourth. Mallard is small, but I like his athleticism and veratility. If niether of these two fit the need for the fourth DT then Kenny Petersen or Nic Clemons could be considered, They both have the size, quickness and ability to play the one gap DT. Regardless of personnel, I see a lot of rotation for us on the entire Defensive Line. My main concern is LB but if D-Rob is that dominant DT that makes the other better, then maybe we are OK there too as they keep the opposing O-Line off our MLB. Just a thought.

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 2, 2008 6:24 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

DRob might be dominant.

But I think the coaching staff is determined to keep his field time down to lessen the chance of injury. (We also deal a lower pick if he sees less field time).

He wouldn’t dominate in the classic sense though. Usually a two gapper can demand a double team, allowing the one gapper the penetration. DRob is a one gapper (though he tried to play in the NYJs 3-4 as a 2 gap, with little success). On the other hand, if he can shoot his gaps well enough to draw consistent blocks from two OLmen (or to pull pass blocks from a FB or HB), that could spring Thomas to get the glory and be the sacker. Let’s just hope he stays injury free and is a credible threat hitting his gap.

The good news (that I didn’t emphasize much) is that with a one gap system in place (which I think we’re looking at, even if we don’t run the Show Blitz), I think a lot of the burden is off of our DTs to play like 2 gappers anyway. We won’t have to have a big, dominant 2 gapper like many systems require. That improves our DTs right off the bat!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 2, 2008 6:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Show Blitz

I thought the Show blitz was a forgone conclusion and our DTs would line up in the gap between center and guard. (At least in the “base” defense).

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 2, 2008 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm leaning heavily towards show blitz.

The alignment of the DTs (technique) can vary a little, but they will be joining the DE’s in attempting to penetrate (as opposed to either holding the line or defending two gaps). The idea is for each DL to take a different gap and either get to the QB, or disrupt a run play before it can get started. 2 gappers are traditionaly what we think of when we think of the “dominant” DT; the big guy that ties up two OLmen. Still, a fast and agile DT can get the attention of the OL and be a silent dominator (allowing the rest of the line better lanes to the QB).

It’s an easier assignment for the DTs than 2 gap (and much easier than “holding the line” as in a “contain” system), so DRob has a shot at doing well. In NY, he was being asked to play 2 gap and was doing so as a NT without another DT next to him (3-4).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:07 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's see, hmmm I have about five weeks before I have to leave la-la-land....

There are no concerns in the ‘la-la-land-of-pre-season-feel-goods.’ Therefore I am not concerned. I’m having visions of the ‘T’ formation making a comback. Selvin on the right, Alridge on the left, and Hillis in the center. In this land Selvin runs for 2000, Jay throws for 4000, and our defense watches most of the game from the sidline.

See! I told you…there is no concern.

by Mike Clark on Aug 2, 2008 7:43 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Probably not, but...

...even I like to visit there. We all need some la la from time to time to stay healthy. : )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:08 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

well sure, but...

Injuries are by FAR my biggist concern. As Shanahan stated in his backing off his playoffs “guarantee”, having some luck with injuries is a key to any succesfull season. Any elite team in the league has a similiar laundry list of concerns, even the mighty Pats. Part of being succesfull in this league is having the bll bounce your way more often than not. Is it better to be lucky than good? Sometimes!

by UnarmingMermaid on Aug 2, 2008 8:23 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

It's better to be both!

I think you need luck and talent in concert to go all the way.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:09 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

This web site

is like a dream come true. How did we ever get by without it?
When I think of Shanahan I think “offensive minded.” My gut tells me that he has been watching Cutler all offseason and knows a little something we don’t. Maybe it has been Jay’s work in the film room, maybe the extra work with the recievers, maybe it’s the health issue but what ever it is I think Shanahan has seen something to make him very confident. In all of Shanahan’s years I can’t remember him ever mentioning playoffs in the preseason. My guess is that our offense is finally going to come around and start putting points on the board (7 not 3!) and that in turn is going to make our defense look a whole lot better. With all of this said I would agree with HT that the depth at QB maybe a concern and possibly the key to going deep into the playoffs.

by danver on Aug 2, 2008 9:02 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

dan

I think you are right, Shanny sees something special this year. Some of us old-timers see something very special. Good things this year and maybe for several years to come. Are you new to MHR? If so, welcome! If not..forget I brought it up. Iam fairly new also.

by Mike Clark on Aug 2, 2008 9:41 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mike

I first heard about the site 6 or 7 months ago. I read a whole lot more than I write. This will be my first season watching the games and then coming home and checking out what everyone on the MHR has to say. I can’t wait. Thanks for the welcoming.

by danver on Aug 3, 2008 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

dan Thanks for the 'thanks' for the welcome...and you are right...

this is a very positive place to read of Bronco news. Make a post when you have a thought. Your comment is a very good write.

by Mike Clark on Aug 3, 2008 9:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really think our offense is set.

It will get better, but it is already post season caliber. The defense is the biggest area of concern right now, and could go either way. I still think it might need a little tweaking to get us to the next level.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:12 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

HT

I also worry a bit about our defense-but not much-I just don’t think they’ll spend much time on the field this year. I am really excited with our offense this year. I also think Marcus is about to step up as a dominant player and Doom is going to have a pro-bowl year. I have no worries about where we are at safety or corners. I am really excited about our return-options this year. 13-3…nuff said.

by Mike Clark on Aug 3, 2008 10:00 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus

I think JC is like Elway in a lot of ways. He is dedicated to the game, studies and works out and is 100% committed to the team and game. Whereas Griese and Plummer were not. Its not a knock on them, but I think the more prepared you are the better chance of success you have.

by broncfanstuckinsd on Aug 3, 2008 2:27 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

There does seem to be something special this year and I think coach Shanahan feels it too.
Then again, maybe it is just his first year reading MHR along with you and me.

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 3, 2008 4:58 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

general concerns

Viewing individual positions allows us to focus on problems/strengths but my main concern is collective. In other words, how well will certain areas of the team perform as a unit? The reason we should be concerned is last year. When a large infusion of new players are playing together for the first time under a new system there’s reason for concern.

Last year’s problems were taken into account when this year’s scheme was installed so there’s reason to believe that we won’t see the same problems again. Moreover, and this is hardly trivial, the players like this year’s scheme. However, there are problems with cohesion when a new scheme is implemented, and there’s also uncertainty about how individual players will perform under game conditions, which requires adjustments that then require time to implement.

I’m less concerned with immediate results than I am with creating a nucleus for long-term success, and that’s why, in part, I’d like to see the bulk of this year’s draft class on the final roster. If that means accepting a poorer record because of youth then I think it’s worth it. Looking at the Broncos’ roster acquisitions since 2000 reveals how little talent has been accumulated in the post-Elway era, and I think this has led to an inevitable decline in performance and, more importantly, a loss of team identity.

Here’s how the Broncos were constructed, going up to 2007.

DRAFT & College FA —-—-—-—-—-TRADE-—-—-—-—-—-—--FA-—--

2001-G/C Ben Hamilton (4a)-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—--

2002 —-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-——TE/LS Mike Leach

2003-RB Cecil Sapp (CFA)-—-—TE Nate Jackson(SF)-—-—- LB Louis Green

2004- LB D.J. Williams (1) --——-CB Champ Bailey

2005-CB Karl Paymah (3a)-—--DE Ebenezer Ekuban (Cle)-—-S Hamza Abdullah
CB Domonique Foxworth(3b)-—-DE John Engelberger (SF)
T Erik Pears (CFA)

2006—QB Jay Cutler (1)-—-—-—-—-N/A-—-—-—-—-—-— RB Andre Hall
TE Tony Scheffler (2)—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—TE Chad Mustard
WR Brandon Marshall (4a)-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—DT Kenny Peterson
DE Elvis Dumervil (4b)-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-———LB Nate Webster (UFA-Cin)
G Chris Kuper (5)

2007—DE Jarvis Moss (1)-—-—CB Drรฉ Bly (Det)-—-—-— G P.J. Alexander
DE Tim Crowder (2)—-—-—-—-—-N/A-—-—-—-—-—-—LB Jordan Beck
T Ryan Harris (3)-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—- DE Larry Birdine
DT Marcus Thomas (4)—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-— DE Paul Carrington
DT Steven Harris (CFA)—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—- TE Daniel Graham (UFA-NE)
WR Marquay McDaniel (CFA)—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-- QB Darrell Hackney
S Roderick Rogers (CFA)-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-— G Montrae Holland (UFA-NO)
RB Selvin Young (CFA)—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—WR Taylor Jacobs
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-DT Josh Mallard
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-WR Glenn Martinez
—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—--DT Alvin McKinley (UFA-Cle)
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-P Sam Paulescu
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-K Matt Prater
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-QB Patrick Ramsey
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-CB Lamont Reid
-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-WR Brandon Stokley
—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-——-LB Jamie Winborn

I’ve left out this year’s class and it contains an even greater number of FAs and draft choices than in previous years.

What’s noticeable about the composition of the Broncos is the near void of players who were drafted before 2004. Only Nalen and Hamilton remain from before then. And if things go as I expect then there will be a large contingent of new players on this year’s roster. This is both good and bad. The good part is that it brings in a lot of new talent. The bad part is that it may take time to develop the cohesiveness that comes from playing together for years. Despite this, I would love to see them bring in a couple more draft classes like the last few year’s and completely reload the team, which is what I think it will take. Therefore, I measure this year’s results in terms of team growth rather than mere win/loss record.

by Colinski on Aug 2, 2008 11:20 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Excellent point!
Iโ€™m less concerned with immediate results than I am with creating a nucleus for long-term success, and thatโ€™s why, in part, Iโ€™d like to see the bulk of this yearโ€™s draft class on the final roster. If that means accepting a poorer record because of youth then I think itโ€™s worth it.

I agree 100%. I’d like to see some guys get experience to propel us into ‘09, even if it cost a little talent this year. Barrett is a good example (not as experienced as McCree), and Royal as well. Perhaps we’ll make the best run possible this year, and if things don’t look like a deep playoff run, Shanahan makes the switches then (like he did when he pulled Plummer for Cutler).

Very, very good thought you have there (in my humble opinion).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:17 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shannahan always plays to win.

Even back in 2006 when he pulled Plummer for Cutler, we were still playoff contenders. If I recall, it came down to the final game of the season against SF, which we lost to knock us out of the playoffs. Plummer had been playing pretty poorly and Cutler was, well, Cutler. Shanny made the move to give the Broncos a better chance to win that year. The offense put up more points with Cutler than Plummer that year.

It seems to be an error to think that Shanny would ever field young players who aren’t playing as well as their veteran counterparts while there is any possible way for a run at the Super Bowl

by unkown on Aug 3, 2008 3:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hear you,

but I think that the prevailing wisdom was that Plummer had just gotten us to the AFC game, and was likely yo get us back to the playoffs again. However, Cutler was a long term solution (he WAS just drafted after Plummer took us one game from the SB). It was one step back, two forward. I think Shanny would do it again in other positons if he felt we had a shot at the playoffs this year, and the SB next year. But that’s just my opinion.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

winning V. building

To use an example: 2005 was a remarkable year - 13 – 3 - given the level of talent. The defense wasn’t too bad, and maybe that’s the one difference between then and now, but there still was a patchwork quality to the team. The reason I cite 2005 is because it shows how long a team can continue to win despite having the ‘talent spigot’ turned off.

We expect the team to win, but at what cost? Free agency has been wonderful for the Broncos but it’s masked a declining foundation, and free agency becomes the one way the team can shore up areas of need imediately, which then becomes a vicious cycle.

Many effects in nature, and in football as well, are “lagged.” And you have to anticipate a need because by the time it becomes apparent it’s too late. Catering to the expectations of fans for a winner each year can lead to a series of short-term fixes that yield further problems down the road. This is why I say that viewing win/loss success alone without a deeper examination of the team’s foundation is myopic. We should be worried about whether the team is doing the things that lead to success rather than short-term win/loss success itself . Well-built foundations don’t reveal their strengths in the short-term. Poorly built foundations don’t reveal their weaknesses in the short-term, too, but by the time the flaw becomes apparent it’s usually catastrophic and can’t be remedied without starting from scratch.

This year’s team is going to be populated with a lot of new players, and some of them will be rookies who need experience. Should we bench them if they make a mistake and bring in a more experienced veteran? In most cases, that veteran will be a recently acquired FA who doesn’t figure into our long-term plans, so we’d be doing little to help ourselves in the future. This is the dilemma.

by Colinski on Aug 3, 2008 6:34 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any ideas

for a back-up QB and DT? some teams are going to have to cut some pretty good first year players to get to 53.

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 3, 2008 8:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I WISH I DID

I hear Green Bay is shopping a former starter.

I haven’t been pleased with Hackney in real games so you better pray. Bringing in anyone at this point doesn’t make much sense, so it’s Ramsey or Hackney, and we better hope that Ramsey shows us more by the end of pre-season. Learning the offense would be the problem, so Cutler needs to stay healthy.

I don’t know the NFL that well, and it’s hard to predict which DTs are going to be available. I’m sure the Broncos will peruse the waiver wire for any possibles. They always do. I solved this problem in my virtual reality by trading Paymah for a DT. We may actually see something like that—whether for a player now or for a draft pick. A compensatory pick would come our way if Paymah or Foxworth sign elsewhere next year (I’m told), so we’ll likely still get compensation by next year’s draft. I expect one of the two will be leaving, the other (probably Foxworth) could stay.

by Colinski on Aug 3, 2008 10:59 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with everything Colinski said

It takes time for a collection of individuals to gell and play like a team. Based on how weak last year’s D was and the lack of large scale overhauls, I continue to see the Broncos having a 9-7 season. MLB is manned by two experienced players who haven’t proven themselves yet and SLB is manned by a talented player with a long history of injuries. DT is still a major concern, I really wish we had drafted two DTs.

Losing Lynch will hurt the locker room aspect of the team, but in the big picture if the hopes are being pinned on making a deep run in the playoffs next season, it is probably just as well. Ditto for the kicking situation. Keeping a higher percentage of young players on the roster and getting them some meaningjul playing time will pay off next year, plus San Diego’s talent pool should start getting drained due to their many pending free agencies and their rather average drafts of the last two seasons.

by Arctic Bronco on Aug 3, 2008 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

2009 NFL draft

It may be early, but…............................................................................

Some of the 2009 mock drafts are making me drool.

One has us getting James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State at #15. It’s incredibly unrealistic, but we can dream.

http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php

Another has us getting Taylor Mays, FS, USC at #13, which is more realistic. I’d be happy with a number of the many (perhaps 7 including some juniors) Safeties who could go in the 2nd round. There’s no good reason not to use a high-ish pick on a Safety next year.

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=802821

And if it’s an OLB that you’re looking for, try Brandon Spikes (JR), LB, Florida at #14.

http://www.nfldraftdog.com/Mock_Drafts/2009_nfl_mock_draft.htm

There’s a number of positions on the Broncos, including LB, that would helped greatly by another infusion of talent like this year’s draft crop.

by Colinski on Aug 3, 2008 9:02 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

WAIT WAIT WAIT
13 #14 and #15

Forgive me if I have a little more confidence in Denver than that!

Until Terrell Davis makes it into the Hall of Fame, I refuse to acknowledge the existence of such a place other than the Ring of Fame at Mile High!

Davis to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on Aug 3, 2008 9:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

draft position

Not much effort is put into predicting draft position—sites usually peg teams at more or less where they placed the year before. At least everyone’s assuming we’ll be better this year. You have an argument, however, and I’ve seen the Broncos at #20 in one mock draft, which is more in line with what you probably believe.

by Colinski on Aug 3, 2008 9:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pegues at #23

I like both the position, @#23, which is playoff bound, AND the pick—Derek Pegues. I’ve also seen Myron Rolle, S, FSU going to us, which would make me happy.

Pegues: http://mississippistate.scout.com/a.z?s=136&p=8&c=1&nid=3016928

2009 Mock draft: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7999670

Myron Rolle: http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=3662928

by Colinski on Aug 3, 2008 10:21 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good call!

Atwater for the Hall!

by Emmett Smith on Aug 4, 2008 12:24 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

You had me at Myron...

We Myrons have to stick together…

by JR_G on Aug 4, 2008 7:13 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Injuries only thing to stop us

If we can get lucky, as Shanny says, about injuries, then I believe they have the personnel and scheme to go 10-6 or 11-5. If we can win the first two games, and stay injury free, we have a chance to win the division.

I am not worried about DT, because our one-gap system puts empahsis on speed and explsion, not brute size and strength. They will rotate 8-10 guys depending on the down and distance and the defense (regular or nickel/dime). On regular downs it appears they combine a tackle and end who play run best, with another tackle and end who are better at pass rushing.

For instance, I have read elsewhere, that the 1st team right now is Dumervil (pass) and Engleberger (run) at DE and Robertson (run) and Petersen (pass) at tackel. Then the second team is Crowder (run) and Moss (pass) at DE and Thomas/Mckinley (run) and Ekuban/Mallard (pass) at DT. Ekuban may not make the team, but if he does he will be primarily a pass rushing d-lineman from the inside.

I think we have good depth at O-line and d-line, so I think we could handle an inury there. But I think our depth is weakest at OLB, safety, and QB. If our starters there stay healthy then things will be great, but if we loss a starter at OLB or Safety, or of course Cutler, then we will have some trouble

by The Gun Young on Aug 2, 2008 11:40 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Good thinking.

Agree with the first 2 games (even first four) being real important this year. Also agree DT emphasis.

I’m hoping Ekuban makes the team. I haven’t heard anything negative on him. He’s been our best run stopper at DE, and as a hybrid over to DT might be more of a pass guy (as you mention). I’m not sure (that’s a thought to ponder).

I’m thinking DRob is going to be more of a pass guy though, since he didn’t fit the 2 gap scheme in NY, and is more likely to play 1 gap in whatever scheme we run. Mike didn’t go out to get any 2 gappers for the team (and we really don’t have a true 2 gap right now), so I think DRob will probably shoot a gap with everyone else.

I feel good (not great) about SAF. QB depth is an issue, but few teams can really afford to lose a starting QB anyway. Depth at OLB is worrying me more and more.

Again, solid stuff GY.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 3:25 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

HT

Your posts never fail to get us all thinking and educate us and entertain us at the same time. I send a big THANK YOU from Alaska!

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 3, 2008 4:55 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the kind words First.

If you like the posts, I’m doing something right. You’re pretty darned good yourself! A big “your welcome” back to you (via one of those planes that land on the water).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 5:25 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

For anyone that got a little down about the team...

...that wasn’t my intent. If you want a good pick-me-up, here’s a great and very positive answer to a lot of the concerns from our Very own fearless leader, Guru!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Aug 3, 2008 5:52 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Drafty days

While the prize of the draft’s DT’s may be Fili Moala of USC (In 2007, while starting all 13 games he had 32 tackles, including 5.5 for losss of 21 yards including 2.5 sacks for minus 16 yards), there are several DT’s in this draft that could help –
Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss, 6-3, 298, 58 tkl, 3.5 sk, 10.5 tfl, 1 pbu, and 1 int in ‘07 is one example,
Alex Magee, DT, Purdue, 6-3, 295, 38 tkl, 4.5 tfl, 2 pbu in ‘07 is another, or
Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech, 6-3, 290, 30 tkl, 4.5 sk, 7 tfl, 1 pbu in ‘07, even Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn

It’s a fairly good draft for DT’s and it’s even deeper at linebacker. (I think that Styg is right, and we need to look seriously at SLB. I love Winborn’s story, but not his over-pursuit habits). I have a couple of articles that I’m working on and it’s obviously too early to put them up, but I suspect that Colinski and others would agree that this could be a fine draft for us.

Colinski has made several good points, I believe. We were victims of our own success in terms of draft placement – the Broncos have gone longer without at top ten pick than any other team in the league. We have great coaching, and were often of the belief that we were just a player or two (usually a FA) away from the Big Dance, and got caught in the wishful FA market. Our drafting was documentably poor, but the Goodman’s, as I suggested in the post of Barrett, seem to be turning that around for us. Things are looking better for this year, and greatly better for next.

I think that HT has the right of it – we can make a run at the playoffs this year, and if we don’t we can get some young guys a lot of good experience. Even if we do sit some of them, most will get some experience, all will learn the system and that’s a big plus as well.

Atwater for the Hall!

by Emmett Smith on Aug 3, 2008 9:59 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Part of the

problem with pinning our hopes on Free agency over the past decade, has been the deteriorating quality of free agents. A guy like zimmerman doesn’t come up for grabs anymore, and if he did, he would be so expensive it would HAVE to be the last piece for a superbowl. High talent free agents tend to have character flaws or injury histories, and teams have gotten better than ever at finding ways to sign and keep their quality guys. The only hope anymore seems to be robbing other teams practice squads and finding the guys hidden on the depth chart.

Denver was in the wrong part of the cycle, whether by choice or fate, and the result was the reliance on free agent stars for about two years too long. At least we weren’t the last one’s to figure it out. Teams like the Colts, Patriots and Chargers all had the benefit of being cellar dwellars prior to their successful years, and all of them managed to learn how to stay on top once they got there. A better team to emulate would probably be PIT, with their consistency. What Denver is trying to do right now, and what they will succeed in doing if they make the playoffs this year and keep the momentum going into the future, is something that I don’t think I have heard of in the NFL.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 3, 2008 11:53 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

info from media guide

The official Bronco site put there media guide on a PDF for anyone to download, and it shows the flow of FAs, both in and out. It’s under “top stories” for Jun 28 (link below).

http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=334&storyID=8116

They show we made out like bandits during the championship years and the gravy train ended late in 90s. We’ve lost as many as we gained since then, although the last few years clearly look like we getting more than we’re losing. (see p.319 of PDF or p.621 of guide/”How the Broncos Were Built”)

Look at years like 95, with Schlereth, M.D. Perry, McCaffrey, and more, and good ones, too. Or 96, with Romanowski & Alfred Williams. Or 97, D. Gordon, Swayne, N. Smith, H. Griffith, etc. There was a short time-span when they made a champion team by adding to an existing nucleus of talent. Some of them were acquired through trades, like Zimm, or Tony Jones, but they filled holes and added to the defense and put together a truly steller OL. But then the gravy train ended and they failed to produce in the draft. Now we’re seeing the final remnants of that era - Nalen, Smith (ret). If it wasn’t for free agency we wouldn’t have much at all. But the gravy train disappeared, and so did our draft - until just recently. The percentage of players who have only been on the team for a few years is startling.

by Colinski on Aug 4, 2008 1:12 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

thank you

for pointing out that zim was a trade. I know better than to use him for my annual rant against the declining nature of freeagents, but all the HOF talk made me forget. :)

Schlereth was an awesome pickup, though. I think I will use him from now on…

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 4, 2008 2:25 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another good Alaskan lad.

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 4, 2008 8:44 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts exactly.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 4, 2008 10:18 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops!

Who am I missing? I have Stinky and Kuper. Who is the third?”

What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us. - Emerson

by firstfan on Aug 5, 2008 4:59 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

SUPERB POST Styg50

We should save your post and put it in a section on capology & free agency, etc. The media guide section on Building the Broncos tells the same story in far fewer words. Just see years like 99 - signed Dale Carter. BTW - I’ve been waiting to for the inside story on Sundquist figured into all this. My guess is the Broncos braintrust was a little slow to adapt their strategy to a FA/salary cap reality.

by Colinski on Aug 4, 2008 2:16 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

on the sundquist issue. It should Denver signed the “X”-man, (Xanders) Shanahan noted publicly that one of the reasons he was brought on board was his “forward-thinking” in the area of team building. There may be something aobut that int he media guide, I’m not sure. I forget where I read it at….

Ok, five seconds of research concludes that I DID NOT read it in the media guide. And since I was there, this is what it had to say about Xanders:

Xanders serves as a contributor in player personnel, salary cap management, contract negotiations and football operations for the Broncos. He assists with player personnel evaluations and acquisition execution with regards to pro personnel. He also evaluates players at assigned positions of need for the NFL Draft. The 37-year-old also is responsible for the strategic planning of the Broncosโ€™ salary cap and cash management in addition to his liaison duties for football operations, logistics, video, information technology and field/turf.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 4, 2008 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The other thing about FA

Is that they steal your compensatory picks away. Even after trading away next years second SD will probably pick up an extra third and fourth next year for Turner and Florence. If we had picked up FAs those would have gone away. I think we have seven or eight picks in the next draft, that also gives the team latitude to trade up for the players they are after.

"He's doing everything a receiver would do except catch the ball." Mike Shanahan

by Brian (DaBolts) on Aug 4, 2008 8:48 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

excellent point

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by Jeremy Bolander on Aug 4, 2008 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moala

He might be available, too, or he may be long gone, depending on who you read. And he’s one athlete I considered posting on here. Peria is another I’ve noticed. I’ve seen mocks with Marks going to the Broncos, but my first thought was that they assumed Moss is a bust. On the other hand, DEs are apparently plentiful in 2009, and we wouldn’t want to pass on a really good one. It looks like a good draft for OTs, on offense, and in number of places on defense.

I wouldn’t mind seeing them take a local prospect: George Hypolite, DT, from CU. I don’t know how late he’ll last but it would nice to see them use a #3 or #4 on him if he’s still there and they haven’t already picked a DT.

http://colorado.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp?Player=59435

He’s hardly big for a DT but he’s sure got the motor. I could see him fitting in nicely in this year’s scheme. It’s called speed and movement to the ball. He’s outplayed Big Twelve OLs, not too shabby for a level of competition.

by Colinski on Aug 4, 2008 12:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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