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MHR Chalk Talk -- Week 4 - Denver Broncos at KC Chiefs (part one)

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IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

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Denver comes into this feeling like they are on top of the world.  They are already 3-0, and now face a division opponent that is 0-3.  With a win, Denver will have scored at least one win against each AFC West rival.  For the playoff race, this means that Denver can do no worse than tie if a tiebreaker comes down to intra-division records.

Denver may also be licking their lips in anticipation for the game.  While KC is a difficult venue for the Broncos to play in, injuries and uncertainty plauge the Chiefs.  Huard is taking the helm at QB from Thigpen, and LB Edwards is out with an injury.  Surtain (CB) is questionable.  A 4-0 start would be great for the Broncos, but it would be foolish to assume that the game is already over.

Read on...

Star-divide

Chalk_talk_medium  This is a game that Denver can really use.  Setting aside the the obvious idea that Denver would like to extend the winning streak to 4-0, Denver has an opportunity to try out some tweaks that may benefit them in future games.  For example, because the KC pass game is in trouble, Denver should be able to try out different plans to stop KC RB Johnson.  At the same time, they don't want to take this game for granted.

The KC Offense

The first thing that a fan watching the game should know about the offense is the state of the KC QB situation.  Croyle won't be returning until Oct, and Thigpen has just lost the starting job to Huard.  This is the third QB in as many games for KC.

Teams have been keeping up with the Broncos scoring factory by airing out the ball.  But KC will have a hard time doing this with a third string QB.

The second thing that fans should know about is where the power lies on the KC offense.  KC's two best options are at RB (Johnson) and TE (Gonzales).  While Gonzales isn't the threat that he used to be, he is an experienced veteran that can take advantage of a misstep by a LOLB.  Johnson has a nice blend of power and quickness, and can cause problems for the Broncos if they can't stop the run.

The KC Defense

Here again, the situation for KC doesn't look good.  Many football watchers would agree that KC's top two players on defense are Surtain (CB) and Edwards (MLB).  Edwards is out, and Surtain is questionable.

So far, the defense has been the better unit for KC.  Can it hold up to the League's number one offensive attack though?

The Denver Offense

Starting his second full season, Cutler has seen the best CB tandems in the League.  Without his number 1 WR, he shredded DeAngelo Hall with rookie Eddie Royal, and then Marshall returned for a devestating one two punch.

Not only is Cutler playing like a pro-bowler, but Marshall and Royal have been deadly against opposing secondaries.  Denver can throw in slot receiver Stokley, or any of three elite TEs as well.  In short, the Denver pass game looks legendary already.

Denver can also rack up YPCs that would make any defensive coordinator cry.  So far though, Denver has limited the use of their runners, except on short yardage (and even prefer to pass then).

The real heros of the offense are the front five.  While Nalen (OC) moves to injured reserve (and probable retirement), Denver just keeps chugging along.  Rookie LT Clady and RT Harris (in his first year after an injury plauged rookie season) have kept Cutler untouched in the first three games (a sack is on the books, but as a statistical anomoly).

The Denver Defense

This is the most confusing element of the game.  Denver's vaunted secondary has been terrible.  While the offense has been busy racking up the points, the defense has allowed opposing teams to do the same.  Why is this?

Denver's pass rush is non-existent.  The longer that a WR duels with a CB, the better the chances for the WR.  Denver just isn't getting any push with the front four.  Denver seems to be worried about blitzing, which would then weaken a suspect run defense.  So far, Denver has done ok keeping opponents from running, but at a heavy cost in the passing game.

Keeping a safety in the box also makes it hard for the CBs to take the kind of chances they need to get INTs and to break up passes.  CBs are being forced to allow catches, and go for the tackle because they often have only one SAF deep (watch for an upcoming article on this issue from Styg).

In an attempt to disguise "the fourth rusher", Denver tried out a 3-4 formation against the Saints for half of a game.  Head Coach Shanahan says the experiment isn't done.  (Again, watch for an upcoming article from Styg, who predicted such a move in an e-mail to me).

Adjustments For Each Team

Despite the lack of Denver's pass rush, KC does not want to throw the ball.  A third string QB throwing the ball against the likes of Bailey and Bly is suicide, especially when you have Johnson to run the ball against a suspect run defense.  Not only that, but running the ball keeps the Denver offense off of the field.

That may sound a little backwards.  Most teams might enjoy a shoot out with Denver.  Rivers and Brees kept their team in the games until the last minute didn't they?  But the state of the KC offense doesn't allow for this kind of gamble.  KC is early in a mutli-year rebuilding plan.  They just had a good draft, and look to have some high picks early next year.  For now, they may have to settle for pounding the ball and hoping for the best.

What else is backwards?  I've been advocating that Denver mix up the run and pass more; play a more balanced game.  But KC is a different animal.  KC shouldn't be able to keep up in a shoot out, and Denver might as well let Jay Cutler continue to develop his skills as an elite passer, while giving more experience to youngsters Marshall and Royal.

Game Planning - KC

KC should pound the ball up the middle.  Denver's LBs are quick enough to stuff most runs to the edges.  A constant assult on the middle of the Denver defense may not get many yards, but it should wear down Denver enough to pick up yards late in the game.  KC should also limit passes to infrequent, short, high percentage passes, probably to the outside to spread the defense for the run game.

This makes sense if Denver is playing 4-3, but even more so in a 3-4 (when pounding the center is the name of the game for an offense).

On defense, KC has few options.  If they double cover Marshall and Royal (no NFL level coordinator would even think of it), Denver just trots out slot Stokely, or throws to any of a number of TEs.  Cover deep, and Denver plays the short hooks and curls they devestated Oakland with.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In part two, we'll take a deeper look at the game, including system match-ups and game planning for Denver. 

7 recs | Comment 29 comments | Digg!

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Thanks!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 3:21 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I think that KC will have a hard time sticking with the running up the gut if they

fall behind by three touchdowns early on. So far our offense has not allowed opponents much of a choice as far as game plans go.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 24, 2008 3:21 PM MDT   0 recs

Agreed.

They’re in a tough spot. If they don’t score on most of their drives, they would have to go to the air. I really don’t see a lot that they can do in this one, but that’s why I’m not an NFL level coach.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 3:24 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Looks like that's what will happen

Like HT said, I too would love to see us mix up the running and passing plays for obvious reasons, however unlike SD and NO, KC doesn’t have the players to compete in a shootout. I know their offense isn’t that good, however you forgot to mention Dwayne Bowe.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 4

by weazel on Sep 24, 2008 4:22 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

With all due respect to Bowe...

I just don’t think he can be a factor when KC is falling back on their third QB in as many weeks. Combine Huard with Bailey, and I just don’t see Bowe having as much chance as his ability would otherwise dictate.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 4:30 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Isn't Huard the second string QB?

He came in after Croyle got hurt then got hurt himself requiring Thigpen.

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Sep 25, 2008 8:40 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

He is.

He got dinged in the neck against the Raiders, so I figure it’s not that bad since he is starting over Thigpen.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 4

by weazel on Sep 25, 2008 11:20 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Some people over at AP

would like him to start anyway.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 4

by weazel on Sep 25, 2008 11:21 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Sleeper Picks

If, unlike me, you’re in to Fantasy maybe you should pick up Patrick Ramsey this week. I have a feeling we may see him before the game is over. Anything can happen but on paper this looks like a blowout of monumental proportions.

Seriously, there may be records set this weekend.

by TheMastermind on Sep 24, 2008 4:00 PM MDT   0 recs

It's certainly looks that way to me too.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 4:35 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

if Ramsey gets into the game

look for heavy doses of Hall, Pittman and Young. Shanny wont throw much if thats the case.

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 24, 2008 5:04 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Great stuff, HT

recommended!

Fullbacks Rule

by broncobear on Sep 24, 2008 4:13 PM MDT   0 recs

Thanks Doc.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 4:50 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

huard

i think he is the #1 qb on that team. just my opinion, here. shouldn’t matter with bowe and gonzalez the only receiving threats. my questions on the d are this:

 it seems the d has an attacking stance vs. the run(by numbers), and a conservative stance vs. the pass(by numbers, also). i haven’t seen them get burned too often with a long passing play on an obvious running down, while the reverse seems to hold true. we are getting beat on screens/draws/quick hits on obvious passing plays with everybody backpedaling. i don’t really see the correlation between being successful in the rushing d, and unsuccessful in the passing d. totally different looks, no? we have 7-8 guys back on passing downs, and 7-8 guys up on running plays. isn’t this just a reflection of where we are putting our players, and shouldn’t we have man coverage on receivers that are so outnumbered in that case?

as far as the pass-rush, i also don’t see the “disguising” that has shanny referred to, much. we still sent only three alot, or the 4th was trying to cover the player out of the backfied, or an area. a 4-man rush with this d-line isn’t going to do it, either, but i don’t see how more blitzing on passing downs can hurt our run d on running downs when we stack the box to stop it. i think the pass-rush is the only major problem with the defense right now(well, and paymah), and i feel we have to blitz with the players we have this season if we are even trying to improve this aspect. if our lb’s and their speed are the strength of this d, then why don’t we use them in the rush as a traditional 3-4 would? i don’t believe we are built for this allignment, but if we are going to use it anyway, we need to help out our less-than-spectacular d-line.

as always, ht, great post, and please help me out with understanding the 3-0-8, as it looks to me

hear me, perpetrators of bread crime, your punishment is at hand.
taste my blintzkrieg!

by davecheffy on Sep 24, 2008 4:19 PM MDT   0 recs

I agree about Huard, which is why I said I'd be worried if he started...so I am a little worried.

I still think it’s a blowout, just 48-27 instead of 56-3. ;-)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 24, 2008 4:49 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry.

“Huard is probably the most "steady” QB." below is meant as a response to your comment.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 4:50 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Huard is probably the most "steady" QB.

But I don’t think he has much of anywhere to go, and KC must not think too highly of him to relegate him to being their third choice.

Your other points are well taken too. My only thought is that Denver is playing the 3 man fronts because they just don’t have a credible pass rush, and are too afraid of the run to try blitzing the LBs.

Seriously, nothing frightened me more than not being able to stop an opponents run game. In the years I coached, it only happened once to me, and I’ll never forget it. It wasn’t even at the HS level. I was coaching middle school ball at the time (def coord, as always) and the other team had a RB that was several years older than everyone else (a long story). He just plowed through my kids (and we were undefeated for years prior to this game). The only way I was able to stop him was to assign players to jack him on every play (the other team ran up the middle every single play). It was like living a nightmare.

I think the effect of last year (not stopping the run) has terrifed our coaching staff. We’re keeping safeties in the box, and we’re holding back LBs from blitzing. By throwing the ball early and often, I think we’re trying to keep other teams from running as well.

I don’t see the disguising either. This probably was a reference to the NO game where we went with a 3-4 (I haven’t seen it yet).

The 3-0-8 is a formation with a function, but I’m at a loss to explain why Denver uses it so often. If we needed to prevent a long gain in the last minute of a game, and the clock was running, and the opponent needed a score plus an onside kick, I could see it. But as of now, I’m utterly confused by a lot of things I’m seeing on defense. I’m still waiting for Denver to develop an “identity”, such as a system I can define, or something that they do with effectiveness and consistency.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 24, 2008 4:49 PM MDT   0 recs

Thanks HT

I was a little confused too last week watching the game (at the stadium). When I saw 97 on the line I was like “who is that?” Then I figured out we were running a 3-4 with the fourth LB in a 3-point stance.

We do lack an identity – but to his credit I do feel like Slo trying to figure out what he’s got, and appreciate that he is not afraid to change up the scheme to compensate and keep his best players on the field. I do think the focus on the 3-4 allowed DJ the big game, and Nate the TD. Although his stats were less gaudy Winborn was flying all over the place making plays, I thought.

I kept referring to the 3-0-8 as the “umbrella” cause I saw it so much. Intriguing, if not too effective – Grammatica should have never had an opportunity to miss the two he missed, but the soft coverage allowed big completions.

As always, great work! Recommended!

by jonahsilas on Sep 24, 2008 9:59 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for the answers. if you're confused, i'm even more confused!

the fear of the run on every play is the best only idea i have heard yet as to why we are sitting back on passing downs. you would think the back 6-7 guys would be enough to stop a first down on a long run attempt, but this may be a case of the “baby steps” approach, or just poor tackling in the secondary should a rb get by the lb’s. maybe we’re just trying to make the offense one-dimensional, with alot more work to do as the season moves on. too many new players/confusion, perhaps. i agree this situation is better than last years’. stopping the run is priority #1, absolutely. but this almost cost us 2 wins, already, hence my wrath.

now shanny said this, and i’m even more confused now: “If you have a three-man rush, you’re not really sure who is coming. The disadvantage of a four-man front is they know the front four is usually coming and you know what the coverage is.” i know who is coming, the 3 down-linemen! even with 4 linemen, does it really matter which 3 come at 5-6 blockers? and what about disguising one of the four rushers, with 5 on the line? a little better, no? also, how do they know our coverages with a standard 4-man rush, anyway? he doesn’t even mention the idea of bringing more than 4, but zone-blitzing is all about disguising blitzers, right? have we ditched that idea, or are the players not ready/good enough for it? i though speed was our game, and we don’t possess 3 bonafide rushers, or anyone to collapse the pocket, like a stud nt. looks like fear of the big play, again.

i just really believe we could improve the pass defense by sending even just 4-5, on only obvious passing downs, or even just 3rd-and-long, something. there are situations that call for the conservative approach, i agree, but this is a scary base package against the pass. i’m positive if we stop doing this, we will get off the field more often than we have been, and not be burned for longer gains as much as we possibly fear. against weaker offenses and qb’s, we may use this approach less often, or even with greater success(worse qb accuracy), or we may make them all look like joe montana. either way, against the big boys, it has to go. remember gannon’s 22 straight pass completions? ray rhodes? let’s hope they soon have this figured out. the fact that we won the last 2 games is of no consolation to me that we are on the right path, here. if we slowly phase this out while getting acclimated to our players/coaches/schemes, then i have no problem with taking that direction, if we have to. but i’m concerned that isn’t it, and an opportunity in the afc may be wasted. i’m going to have to trust they see this isn’t the way to go. maybe a few losses will get the message across better, but i’m trying to avoid that. my ranting is done(until sunday), thank you for your patience, and here’s to 4-0!

hear me, perpetrators of bread crime, your punishment is at hand.
taste my blintzkrieg!

by davecheffy on Sep 24, 2008 10:08 PM MDT   0 recs

I can make sense of at least one thing.
now shanny said this, and i’m even more confused now: "If you have a three-man rush, you’re not really sure who is coming. The disadvantage of a four-man front is they know the front four is usually coming and you know what the coverage is." i know who is coming, the 3 down-linemen!

Not exactly. If we were talking about about three down linemen and a bunch of DBs (the 3-0-8 for example) that we are seeing in “prevent” looking defenses, Mike’s comment wouldn’t make sense. But he’s talking about the 3-4 Phillips. In that case, we have the three down linemen, and at least one LB rushing. The offense doesn’t know which LB (play to play) it will be.

In football trench theory, because of what players are allowed to do with their hands (different between the defense and offense), 4 defensive linemen should get past 5 offensive linemen given enough time. 3 on 5 is considered even. The only question is how much time it takes.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 25, 2008 2:41 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

gotcha, on that point

he must have meant to say 3-man front, not rush. i thought the question was on the prevent-style defense we were employing in the 2nd quarter, which makes it sound insane! he must have been referring to the 4 lb’s instead , or misunderstood the question. my entire problem is with rushing only 3 men, not to mention playing zone, and just giving it up. late in a game/half with a 2-score lead, or very, very late in a game with a mile to go, and it has it’s use. any other time, it is suicide

hear me, perpetrators of bread crime, your punishment is at hand.
taste my blintzkrieg!

by davecheffy on Sep 26, 2008 10:48 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I is mad at the 3 4 defenced I cant stand the three man rush it so super crappy but if the bronco rush the line back too I is ok guy. I want see the bosst baley come off end shanhan say he is the super incredible wheel contender he has have the speed guy, all the speed shanhan say he fastest than the corn backs come on defence cordinater lets see the boss baley makey the crazy runs at quart back with incredible speeds.

I is fan of the Denver

by Horvil Tiki on Sep 25, 2008 3:51 AM MDT   0 recs

i agree

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 7:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

after he is finished watching film...oh wait, that's never. lol

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 7:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

He already does.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 25, 2008 2:19 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Shanny is Chuck Norris and we all know that Chuck Norris is everywhere.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 2:50 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Great post. All Ready!

by precisiontint on Sep 25, 2008 7:53 AM MDT   0 recs

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