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Is Denver's Offense Scoring Too Fast?

Note:  Guru may have spoken on this some last night on the podcast, I have yet to download and listen to it.

So far this season Denver's offense is off to a record-setting pace, while its defense looks to be equally bad.  Why is this happening, is our offense making life tougher on the defense?  I sat down and looked at some numbers to see if I could come up with a conclusion.

Star-divide

To start things off, here is a breakdown of Denver's time of possession throughout the season:

DEN T.O.P. OPP T.O.P.
OAK 29:50 30:10
SD 34:00 26:00
NO 27:12 32:48
Overall 91:02 88:58

As you can see, there isn't a huge difference, and we are actually 'winning' that category for the season; so overall T.O.P. may not be a factor.

What about a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of points allowed?

1st Quarter 6
2nd Quarter 30
3rd Quarter 17
4th Quarter 31

As you can see, we allow significantly more points in the 2nd and 4th quarters than the 1st and 3rd.  Could this be because our defense is more rested in those quarters?  I think it's a distinct possibility.

Now, I decided to look at all of Denver's possessions and break them down, seeing how the defense did after certain types of offensive possessions.  First off, here is how Denver's defense did on the other team's first drive of each half:

1st Half 0 points
2nd Half 7 points

Only 1 score in 6 attempts, that's something Guru can be proud of; Our defense must be doing OK when rested, huh?  Let's see if that is true, check out the following table that includes all drives except for the very first drives of the 1st and 2nd halves.

Minutes Rest Points Allowed # of Possessions
<1 21 4
1-2 3 4
2-3 6 6
3-4 14 5
4-5 24 7
5-6 0 0
>6 8 1

Notes on above data:
-1 of the TDs for <1 minute rest was Sproles'kick return, which I counted because many defensive players are on that squad.
-Denver's defensive TD (Nate Webster) came after the team had 2-3 minutes rest.

So, the data is interesting but overall unconclusive.  We can't quite say the defense is stinking because they aren't getting enough rest, but there are some things to look at.

  • Only once has Denver's offense held the ball for more than 5 minutes.
  • Over half (14) of the offensive possessions have been under 3 minutes in duration.
  • When Denver's offense scores in 1-3 minutes, our defense does relatively well, allowing 3 field goals in 10 possessions.
  • After a 3-5 minute rest, our defense has allowed 5 TDs and 1 FG in 12 possessions.

Overall, it shows our scoring defense is not as bad as the yards indicate.  We allow a lot of yards, but that's because the opponents seem to get more possessions than they often would.  I am not too sure what conclusions to draw from this, but I bet you guys have some opinions.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

4 recs | Comment 43 comments

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Interesting data.

Its hard to see any real patterns, but I think it is surprising that they only have one drive of over 5 minutes. I would definitely like to see some more longer drives. If we have a lead in the second half and have a 8 or 10 minute drive it can be devastating for the opponent.

by nburns on Sep 25, 2008 11:41 AM MDT   0 recs

Nice work, Stud . . .

But here is the bottom line, IMO: The defense must begin to stop some of those long drives and get the hell off the field. The answer to quick scores is more quick scores, and that is on the defense.

Never argue with a fool, lest you take on his appearance. - my daddy

by AZDynamics on Sep 25, 2008 11:44 AM MDT   0 recs

The thing we can't really calculate here is actual time of rest.

A 1-3 minute drive may have given the defense a 15-20 minute rest depending on the situation(such as, end of quarter, commercials, time outs, ect), while a 5-6 minute drive may only give the defense a 10 minute rest.

I think there might be a better correlation between freshness and tiredness. It seems we play better in the first part of each half and then fall apart towards the end of each half…

I am not sure.

Good work studbucket, rec’d!

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 12:08 PM MDT   0 recs

Yes . . .

Now that I know what it means to “rec,” I gave him onet, too. :)

Never argue with a fool, lest you take on his appearance. - my daddy

by AZDynamics on Sep 25, 2008 5:43 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 5:54 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

ideally

…we’d like to be able to control the ball through long drives, preferably later in the game when need to keep it away from the opponent’s offense, but you can’t always get what you want. The most important metric is ‘efficiency,’ a measure of the percentage of drives that result in scores. On that front, we’re doing quite well. And other measures of offensive output, such as Points Scored, First Downs, Third Down Efficiency, Total Yardage, Red Zone Efficiency, etc., indicate that we’re doing very well. In particular, our Red Zone Efficiency and points scored/ yardage gained show great improvement from a year ago.

However, we’re not where we could be on rushing yards, although yardage totals don’t tell the complete story. I attribute that to a new OL but it’s also a function of our passing efficiency / running efficiency — our ability to succeed passing V. running. Choosing to run might stop our drives, so we’re using the most productive strategy — passing — even though it consumes relatively less clock. It’s still the best strategy, as long as we’re scoring.

Improvements in the running game will allow us to choose between two successful strategies, and balance the running v. passing attempts while also dictating to the opponent’s defense rather than having their defense dictate to us. As the running game improves we’ll be able to further improve on our TOP, but we’re not doing badly right now although our defensive shortcomings have drawn attention to the importance of TOP.

by Colinski on Sep 25, 2008 12:54 PM MDT   0 recs

Having lived through this as a Chiefs fan

Be careful what you wish for. The Chiefs had a potent offense, but couldn’t stop anyone not that long ago. In came Herm Edwards with a philosphy that said we needed to “play more as a team.” Translation: Offense: You need to take longer on scoring drives so that the defense doesn’t get so tired. What do the players hear? Slow down. What happens? You end up where we are now.

I do think that there is something to the idea of not getting worn down. But as AZD said, the defense can get off the field as soon as it make three stops. And while I’m not saying this is the case with the current Broncos, I think a blazing offense and porous defense also can happen at the same time when the front office favors one side of the ball over the other when getting players. Chiefs have drafted defense since Herm has been there. Which is why it isn’t so hard to see our offensive production suffer, as much as it hurts to see the defense not step up and become solid yet. But they’re young. It’s rebuilding. And while people avoided the term for a while, it’s our only source of comfort at the moment.

Before you throttle an offense back, ask yourself if you really want to take points off the board.

by sunny D on Sep 25, 2008 1:20 PM MDT   0 recs

Shanny has always looked upon the defensive side of the ball with contempt and

I seriously doubt he would ever call for his offense to slow down. He is purposely unleashing the beast and he will keep looking for defensive coordinators until he finds one that can stop the other team. Unlike KC, Denver will not go looking for a different coach to fix the defense. ;-)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 2:53 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

But see how well the coaching change has worked out?

Hey, I’m still holding out hope for the second half of the Chiefs’ season.
— Good points, Zappa.

by sunny D on Sep 26, 2008 12:04 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

The reason the Chiefs are in full rebuild mode instead of the Broncos transition mode, is because your

coach has actively sought to get rid of all your veterans. I wouldn’t doubt if they got rid of Tony G next year. The Broncos kept their core veterans and injected youth where they could.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 26, 2008 7:39 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

what coach?

ohh you mean that loser Herm. I thought she was just a cheerleader

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 26, 2008 11:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Veterans such as last year's #2 wide receiver Samie Parker?

How’d he do at Broncos camp? Yes, the Chiefs cut a lot of players, but few are still playing anywhere else. It appears we should have kept DE Wilkerson, especially since we’re thin there this year. We cut kickers Tynes (Giants) and Carney (who’d looked solid so far this year). Kawika Mitchell was cut a couple years ago and it still starting elsewhere. But generally, as we tracked the guys we cut loose, we discovered starters for us last year couldn’t make teams this year. In the past, we over-used free agency and also tried to shop for bargains. So people like CB Ty Law, LB Kendrell Bell, and S Sammy Knight grew old and less productive. The young players we have appear to be talented, so the future is uncertain but at least hopeful.

The injury bug has not been kind so far this year. Both first round picks missed the majority of training camp with injuries – Dorsey and Albert. Albert is playing exceptionally well at LT considering all the time he missed with virtually no preseason games. And Croyle apparently is made of glass — although better blocking would help.,

Jared Allen’s departure was unplanned and unfortunate, even though we got nice draft picks. GM Peterson ticked off Allen and with only one year left on his contract, we swung the deal that netted us players from the draft.

Herm’s overall philosophy has crippled the offense, imo, and made life very difficult for the defense. If you think scoring too fast is a problem for a defense, trying 3 and outs with even poorer field position. But they’re young and there’s hope. Maybe not for this Sunday. But hey — any given Sunday.

by sunny D on Sep 27, 2008 2:21 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

No, like Casey Weigman. ;-)

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 27, 2008 3:15 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

He's pulling through for you guys this year, huh?

Without Nalen. Good for him. He’s a good guy.

by sunny D on Sep 27, 2008 9:09 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

He has been our best freeagent pickup in years

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Sep 27, 2008 10:09 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Are we at all concerned...

about our team’s level of conditioning?
Seems like the defense does get worn out during other teams’ drives, and when we face a capable no-huddle offense that can keep us from our usual substitutions (on the d-line, especailly) it seems like we get stuck seriously back on our heels….

by Broncs Cheer on Sep 25, 2008 2:54 PM MDT   0 recs

I thought of that too

I wondered if it seemed like they were really feeling it late in quarters or drives. Some of their body language showed they may be, and the statistics point to the fact that it may be true. Of course, I don’t know if there is a way for us to figure determine this.

by studbucket on Sep 25, 2008 4:08 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

One thing to look for

Going down from altitude to Kansas City. If the defense doesn’t look as sluggish after long periods with no rests, that would be something to look at.

Not saying it’s the answer (it’s not), but it might mean something. Maybe.

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Sep 25, 2008 8:20 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point

Although I thought training in the altitude would make a difference, I’ll see if they look different for home and away games.

by studbucket on Sep 25, 2008 9:16 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

It doesn't make sense

Really, it shouldn’t be a factor. Denver is the team that trains at this altitude, while the visiting team should be sucking wind. And to be fair, after this weekend, Denver will play two good offenses at home, and two bad offenses on the road.

But you brought up some good points, and we should definitely pay attention to these numbers as the season goes on.

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Sep 25, 2008 11:37 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

the

altitude crap is so overrated. If it really meant so much why isnt Denver ALWAYS 8-0 at home?

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 26, 2008 11:50 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

and

why do you always see players sucking oxygen in SD and Miami?

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Sep 26, 2008 12:05 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

exactlly

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 26, 2008 12:10 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

It has more to do with oxygenating the blood

I agree that it is way overrated though. It should have little effect on well trained athletes. But where it is really noticeable is on the “big heavies” guys that are more power than strength-to weight-ratio, guys like Dallas’ big linemen, or some of the big DTs out there.

Our own Marcus Thomas, who was out of shape last year, was literally in pain, like an injury, for over half of last year, because of not only playing but practicing at altitude. I have a theory that he is still holding himself back a little bit from a subconscious fear of that pain, even though he has (he better have!) a full year in the conditioning program now.

Mountains, forest, sea: these render man fierce, but yet do not destroy the man.

by styg50 on Sep 26, 2008 2:41 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I've never thought the altitude affected anyone but the big heavies.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 26, 2008 3:39 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

thats true

My Uncle wont even golf with my dad anymore. He gets winded walking from the car to his front porch. He is fat. Is over 350 lbs, and lives in Denver

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 26, 2008 4:12 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I am glad we are able to score easily at times

however I would like to see us mix up run and pass plays to keep the defense honest. I don’t think this will happen when we play the Chiefs because they can’t keep up in a shootout……still can’t take them lightly though. Let’s get a quick lead and hold it for once.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 4

by weazel on Sep 25, 2008 3:04 PM MDT   0 recs

After we get the lead through the air

…let the smash-mouth begin!

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"I love your analysis of our team. Its kinda like watching a spider monkey trying to figure out a jar of peanuts.. you know whats going on.. you know whats in there, but to actually figure it out, is just a bit beyond your mental skills..."
- Bronco Dano

by DesertBroncoFan on Sep 25, 2008 3:26 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

works for me

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 4

by weazel on Sep 25, 2008 3:46 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm eager for Torain to get well . . .

It will be interesting to see if the Broncos can play some serious smash-mouth then!!

Never argue with a fool, lest you take on his appearance. - my daddy

by AZDynamics on Sep 25, 2008 5:45 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

No

I think they’re scoring too slow. We should be putting up fiftyburgers every week.

I don’t buy a high-scoring O as an excuse for our D. They (coaches and players) need to step it up, particularly on 3rd downs, and get the heck off the field.

by CoastalBronco on Sep 25, 2008 4:01 PM MDT   0 recs

offense scoring too fast....

it’s like too much money…you can never have too much

fader nation is a conquered nation

"Jerry Jones is Al Davis with a smile!"

The creator of the following names: conquered fader nation, Phyllis and his merry men

by mdierk on Sep 25, 2008 4:14 PM MDT   0 recs

I dont think they

are scoring enuff. I mean Shanny tried to speed the clock up in the 3rd against SD. He needs to attack and attack. Denver should have put 50 up on SD, and probably could have added 14 more against NO. There is no reason Denver should not be averaging 40 a game right now. I say score everytime they have the rock. The Defense IMO is built to be good enuff so Denver wins games 38-24.

Love is a razor and I have walked the line on that silver blade

by broncfanstuckinsd on Sep 25, 2008 4:28 PM MDT   0 recs

I approve this message.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 25, 2008 5:55 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Stud--what a great breakdown!

Your stats give me hope that the reason we can’t stop anyone is that we have scored (early in the game) too many points. I am not making lite of your stats—I think you are right. Defense is a funny creature that can run into the ground—or stand ground.

The problem I have with your thought is that: In three games, our defense should have seen ‘execute and kill’ and instead we get ‘roll over and give.’ Cutler and Crew have kept us in games—and luck (which I’ve never seen before) (at least for this team) can you say luck?.

I have reason of hope just because of our offense. Our offense will keep us in games—but how long—with no defense can we win games? …….I think not.

The best defense is a good offense!
I hope.

by Mike Clark on Sep 25, 2008 6:21 PM MDT   0 recs

the offense is fine

and the running game will improve throughout the season. but time-consuming drives may end up in more field goals/stops, and less big plays/scoring. right now we need td’s more to help this d, because we are giving up big early leads, and we will give up small ones, too. we need defensive balance, here. the d just needs to stop allowing easy pass completions, and force the issue, one way or the other. running the clock down, even if successful, to rest the defense isn’t the answer for a unit that doesn’t really assert itself in getting off the field, anyway. in other words, if the approach doesn’t change, neither will the results. it’s play-calling, not fatigue itself, holding them back. they’re gassed because of the continuous drives by the opposing offense, not the quick ones by ours. when we get more aggressive/successful on defense, and make a few stops(a 3-and-out!), then we can control the clock more and put games away with the lead. at least that is what i am hoping for

hear me, perpetrators of bread crime, your punishment is at hand.
taste my blintzkrieg!

by davecheffy on Sep 26, 2008 1:48 AM MDT   0 recs

davecheffy has it right

I don’t think you can blame the offense for the defense’s lack of ability to get off the field.

by CoastalBronco on Sep 26, 2008 9:32 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Score fast or slow is great either way

I am worried though that our running game will not be up to snuff come later in the year when the weather will start affecting games. We will HAVE to be able to run the ball in the wind, snow, rain or what have you. Looking at the schedule, the running game needs more emphasis quickly. The first potential bad weather game is right around the corner at New England 10/20. Of course Mile High can get bad weather at any time.

I don’t feel comfortable going into the winter months having to rely on a passing game.

I don't believe we can win every game, just the next one. - Lou Holtz
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.-Bill Gates

by orangeblood on Sep 26, 2008 7:26 AM MDT   0 recs

On a related subject

I like to score fast while my girl likes for me to score slow.

I don't believe we can win every game, just the next one. - Lou Holtz
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.-Bill Gates

by orangeblood on Sep 26, 2008 9:10 AM MDT   0 recs

You best follow your girl's advice on that one.

If God is not a Bronco fan, then WHY are sunsets Blue and Orange? - Jon Tollerud 5/22/08

by Zappa on Sep 26, 2008 9:21 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly, there is no bad score

as long as you actually score, it’s all good.

by CoastalBronco on Sep 26, 2008 9:33 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Sounds like you need to practice more before the big games

"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway

by jibbons on Sep 26, 2008 12:22 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Absolutely!!!

Maybe I need to break out the Sex Panther. They’ve done studies, you know 60% of the time it works, every time.

I don't believe we can win every game, just the next one. - Lou Holtz
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.-Bill Gates

by orangeblood on Sep 26, 2008 12:30 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

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