Upset Picks of Week 4

For those of you who have read my stuff before, go on ahead and check out my upset picks for Week 4. 

Previous Week: 3-1 (Thanks to that, I finished 14-2 over all last week!!)
Overall Record: 3-1

Picking games each week is really a science.  One must choose where to take a chance.  Picking the favorite every week will basically guarantee you a 55% winning percentage.  The good pick'em players have a knack for picking the right underdogs.  Thanks to my old man, I have been picking games for 20+ years.  I have my ups and downs, but I usually end up with a top tier record.  I would attribute that picking the right underdogs a majority of the time.

I grade my upset picks based on the level of risk involved.  The first tier is the riskiest picks, which bring the highest reward in pick'em leagues but can also cause disaster for you which happened to me last week.  The second tier bring less risk than the top tier, because the favorite is not as heavily favored to win.  And the third tier risk is basically a coin flip that could go either way, those are the most irritating games because they are so damaging when the coin flip doesn't go your way.

First Tier Upsets:

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay

This is where things get interesting for me.  I am a believer in Jon Gruden and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I am not a believer in Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  If this game was in Green Bay I would probably not be writing this right now, but having this game at home will put the Bucs over the top.  Jon Gruden out coaches his opponent once again in a close one, Bucs by 2.

Here is a quick run down of some other high risk potential upset picks that I did not take this week:

Chicago over Philadelphia
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Atlanta over Carolina

Second Tier Picks:

Minnesota @ Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans are the favorite to win this week as they should be after their fast 3-0 start.  The thing that is rarely taken into account when favorites are decided is momentum and team psyche.  Minnesota is coming off a huge season saving victory over the formerly 2-0 Carolina Panthers and the momentum and confidence gained from that victory, I believe, will propel them to another victory this week over the high flying Titans.  Both teams are fielding journeymen quarterbacks and both teams also field superior defenses.  I give the nod to the Viking running attack in a close game, Vikings by 6.

Arizona @ New York Jets

Everyone is still in love with Brett Favre and those boneheads are going to eat it again this week(excluding last week, Favre is usually stellar on MNF).  These two teams are evenly matched on the defensive side of the ball, but Arizona has a strong edge in talent on the offensive side.  Favre or no Favre, the Jets suck.  Cardinals by 14.

Third Tier Picks:

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

This game is basically a coin flip game to me.  Which is exactly what I did before deciding who to take.  I am somewhat glad that it landed on heads for Cincinnati, because Cleveland is a flopping dead fish right now while at least the Bengals showed some life last week against the world champs.  I will be worried about this game if Derek Anderson is finally pulled and replaced by Brady Quinn.  Quinn has look quite good when he has played and if the future is ever going to start in Cleveland, he needs to be put on the field.  The Bengals by 3.

There you have it.  My upset picks for Week 4.  I doubt anyone will be swayed by my opinion, but hopefully I can add some perspective on some of the picks I made to those of you out in the ether world!  The most important thing is to take great care with who your take for your upset picks.  If you took all the upset picks you'd end up winning 45% of your picks, so these picks really are the difference between a great week and an average one. Good luck to all you pick'em fools out there and GO BRONCOS!