Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders - The Edge

by John Bena (aka TheSportsGuru) on Sep 8, 2008 7:47 AM MDT in 2008 Game Previews Comment 40 comments

Atoaklandheader_medium

For a look at the game from the Raiders view, check out SilverandBlackPride

2007 OFFENSE

Category	Broncos	Raiders
Points Scored	20.0 (21st)	17.7 (23rd)
Passing	224.0 (13th)	164.4 (31st)
Rushing	122.3 (9th)	130.4 (6th)
Total Offense (yards)	346.3 (11th)	294.8 (25th)

2007 DEFENSE

Category	Broncos	Raiders
Points Scored	25.6 (28th)	24.9 (26th)
Passing	193.4 (7th)	195.8 (8th)
Rushing	142.6 (30th)	145.9 (31st)
Total Defense (yards)	336.0 (19th)	341.6 (22nd)

Welcome to a Week 1 edition of The Edge, MileHighReport's in-depth look at this week's Broncos game. Each week I'll take a look at the rosters and give my thoughts on which team had the advantage in each area. I'll then give my official prediction. As always, I look forward to your feedback.

Enough talk, it's Broncos/Raiders. Who has "The Edge"?

	Quarterback Perhaps the biggest difference between the two teams is right at the top, quarterback. Jay Cutler looks primed to have a great season after a pre-season in which the 3rd year signal caller was often dominant. Cutler led the Broncos to scores in 6/10 pre-season possessions and looks like he will take that next step up the ladder of quarterbacks in the AFC. The one thing Cutler hasn't done in his short career is play well against the Raiders, throwing just 1 TD while tossing 4 interceptions. Turnovers are the one thing that can keep the Raiders around, so Cutler will have to protect the football. The Raiders, on the other hand, are handing the reigns to JaMarcus Russell, who is essentially a rookie. He missed all of training camp last year and started one game. He hasn't looked good at any point and there will be pressure on him tonight to make something happen. I like Cutler in this matchup, both from a physical talent level, and a mental level. Russell will make some mistakes, it is up to the Broncos to take advantage.
	Running Back This pick may surprise some of you. The Broncos have always had a solid running game and the Raiders have simply been awful for half a decade. A look at the numbers, however, show the Raiders are the better running team, and the addition of Darren McFadden could make them even stronger. The Raiders were 6th in the NFL last season in rushing yards per game, and with Russell learning on the job the Raiders are going to lean heavily on their 3-headed monster of Justin Fargas, Michael Bush and McFadden. Don't sleep on Bush, either. He is a 1st round talent that slid due to an injury. The Raiders actually did the right thing by giving Bush all of 2007 to get healthy. As for the Broncos, questions abound on the ground. Can Selvin Young be "the man"? Can Andre Hall be the tough runner the Broncos need, especially in the Red Zone? The Raiders were awful against the run last year, and nothing takes a crowd out of the game like a dominant running game that takes the air out of the ball. At this point in the season, the Raiders have more talent in their backfield, but the Broncos do a better job getting it done.
	Receiver Without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos receiving corp is merely average, but even so the Raiders receiving corp is just plain bad. Javon Walker is still questionable for the game, though all indications are he will play, but lets be honest, Walker is a headcase. The Raiders may be forced to play the recently signed Ashley Lelie as well and we know all too well what he brings, or doesn't bring more like it. Ronald Curry is a nice #3, but he isn't a consistent threat, and again, a receiver is only as good as the guy throwing them the ball, and with a bunch of "me first" guys in the huddle life is going to be tough for JaMarcus Russell. The Broncos, even without Marshall, have Cutler throwing the ball, and while there isn't any "star factor" at receiver the Broncos do have guys that can get it done. Look for the two vets, Brandon Stokley and Darrell Jackson, to get involved early. I felt the Broncos did a great job of protecting them during the pre-season from any unnecessary wear and tear. Eddie Royal gets his first shot as well, but my expectations are reserved for rookie wide receivers. Any production we get from Royal tonight will be a bonus. The Broncos are going into the game with only 4 receivers, so the running game is going to be the focus, but I still like the Broncos group as a whole over a bunch of individuals in Oakland
	Offensive Line The Broncos, even without Center Tom Nalen, have the advantage. Having allowed only 1 sack this pre-season, the offensive line, though young, has proven to be talented and once again should provide Jay Cutler time to throw, and Broncos running backs lanes to run. The regular season is a different beast, however, and the biggest concern with youth, in my opinion, are penalties. On the road, in a hostile environment, procedure and holding penalties can be drive killers. If Ryan Harris, Ryan Clady and Chris Kuper can avoid those types of mistakes, the Broncos will be ok. As for the Raiders, issues abound along the O-Line. Robert Gallery has become a full-fledged bust, and the Raiders brought in Kwame Harris from San Francisco and he has looked bad. The Raiders also start two Broncos cast offs - Cornell Green and Cooper Carlisle -- advantage Broncos.
	Defensive Line Neither team was good against the run last year, and both have a one-dimensional pass rush - Derrick Burgess for the Raiders, Elvis Dumervil for the Broncos. After that, there are questions marks. I do like the addition of DeWayne Robertson to the Broncos d-line, though I can't give the Broncos the edge without seeing 60 minutes of how the Broncos are going to use him. Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder must also play better than what we saw during the preseason. For the Raiders, Gerard Warren played well in spells last season, especially against the Broncos, and Tommy Kelly was rewarded with a big contract, and the pressure that goes with it. Tonight's game may well be won or lost by which one of these units steps up and makes plays.
	Linebacker The Broncos biggest advantage may be at linebacker, where D.J. Williams, Nate Webster and Boss Bailey are primed to begin what is hoped to be a solid season. Williams, fresh of signing his new deal, is ready to dominate, back on the Weakside where he belongs. Webster plays with a lot of emotion, which serves him well, but he'll need to keep it in check and make sure he maintains his discipline, especially against the Raiders running game. Boss Bailey should improve the run defense as well, and has the size and strength to get physical with Raiders' linemen and tight ends. The Raiders don't have alot of depth at linebacker, but that doesn't mean they aren't talented. Ricky Brown takes over on the strong side, and Kirk Morrison is underrated in the middle. Thomas Howard is on of the best in the AFC, and his 6 interceptions/ 2TDs last year prove that Jay Cutler will need to know where #53 is at all times.
	Secondary Both teams have strong secondaries, but I give the slight edge to the Broncos. Starting with Oakland, Nnamdi Asomugha has developed into a solid cover-corner heading into his 6th season. Teams learned in 2006, when Asomugha picked off 8 passes, to be leary of throwing the football his way, as evidenced by the 1 interception in 2008. On the other side, DeAngelo Hall comes in, and while there is no doubting his talent, Hall's attitude and knack for trying for the big play have been a detriment to his career. The Broncos will likely attack Hall early and often looking to get into Halls head. He is prone to get called for penalties and will bite on play-action/pump fakes. At safety, Free Safety Michael Huff moves over to his more natural position with the acquisition of former Giant Gibril Wilson. I have questions about both, especially Wilson, who benefited from an incredible Giants pass-rush last season. For the Broncos, it starts with Champ Bailey who is still the best in the game. I would doubt the Raiders will take many chances on Champ's side making his impact greater than that of the Asomugha or Hall. Dre Bly is on the other side, and while I am concerned with Bly matching up against any of the Raiders' receivers, he does have a nose for the football and isn't afraid of taking a chance. The Broncos are alot stronger at safety, with Marlon McCree and Marquand Manual, and as a unit plays alot better against the pass and run than the Raiders unit.
	Special Teams I hate to say it, but the Raiders do have a significant advantage on Special Teams. Shane Lechler is one of the best in the NFL, both in terms of sheer power and touch, pinning teams deep with angled punts. Sebastian Janikowski is what he is, but I would much rather have a guy with the powerful leg than not. The Raiders will also have an interesting return game with McFadden and Hall. For the Broncos, there are just too many questions marks. Matt Prater and Brett Kern are, for all intents and purposes, starting their first regular season game, and the Broncos return game will take a bit because Eddie Royal is needed in the pass game. Special Team can be a great equalizer, and the Broncos have had their issues in return coverage in the past. They'll have to be careful not to allow the Raiders control field position through the kicking and return game.

FINAL PREDICTION: Denver Broncos 24 - Oakland Raiders 13.
One thing about tonight's game that is getting very little attention is field conditions. With the A's still playing something that resembles baseball, the infield dirt comes into play. That could become a factor should either team need to kick a field goal off of it and it can also play into footing. Trying to cover receivers who know where they are going in dirt could become problematic. Weather doesn't look to be a factor(see below), so it should just be dirt, but something worth keeping your eyes on.

As for the game itself, this is a quarterback League. Ask the patriots. In games where the teams appear to be pretty even, like this one, I'll take the better quarterback, and Jay Cutler is a much better quarterback, despite what Raiders fans will try and tell you. Cutler is 100% healthy and he knows this offense. JaMarcus Russell is still trying to learn and hasn't looked good at all during the pre-season. Add to that a patchwork receiving corp and the Raiders offense is going to have to lean heavily on a talented running game. There is no way the Broncos will let the Raiders beat them on the ground. Look for the Broncos to sell-out to stop the run, forcing the game into Russell's hands. That will lead to mistakes and turnover opportunities. The Broncos, like the Raiders, will run the ball early and often as well, but the difference is Cutler can and will make plays when he needs to. Broncos get off to a huge start and finish the night in sole possession of first place in the AFC West.

Oh, please take a moment to "BUZZ UP" the post at the top of the page. Thanks!

GO BRONCOS!

TONIGHT'S WEATHER --

5 recs | Comment 40 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

If the faiders continue the trend of the other left-coast teams...

the final score might be a 35-10 Denver win.

Broncos broncos everywhere and all the league did blink,
Broncos broncos everywhere think moldy faiders stink!

by Mike Clark on Sep 8, 2008 7:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Breakdown G!

This is going to be a heck of a night!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 8, 2008 8:16 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

What I want to see tonight:

A defense that swarms to the ball—led by DJ and Boss Bailey—and that doesn’t let McFadden get the wheels turning.

Tony Scheffler and Nate Jackson creating havoc for the Raiders linebackers in coverage.

Eddie Royal making one, just one, big catch on a deep ball, ideally early, to keep their corners honest.

Solid offensive line play—Clady holding his own in pass protection and the signs of a well-coordinated unit in run blocking.

If we get this, chalk it up as a win! Go Broncs!!

by Broncs Cheer on Sep 8, 2008 8:38 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I want to see Eddie Royal Dominate...

selfish reasons of course…fleaflicker fantasy league

by Denverjhawk on Sep 8, 2008 8:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The key is putting pressure on Russell

on third down pass plays. Even a rookie can pick apart a defense if he has time. The difference between a veteran and a rookie is in being able to make correct reads and accurate throws under pressure. We can take advantage of Russell’s inexperience only if we can force him to make quick decisions, which will lead to mistakes. If we can get them into third-down situations and then force Russell’s hand we’ll win easily.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 9:20 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

conspiracy theory

So what if the defensive line was told to take it easy in the pre-season to test some of the new secondary. Stranger things have happened. If Jarvis turns out to be the stud he is supposed to be and Crowder steps it up we will have the ability to get that 35-10 victory. It’s monday night football- time to unleash the hounds.
DUUUMervil is going to be solid, and Robertson knee should hold out for the first game (cross my fingers).

by Sneaky Sean on Sep 8, 2008 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something to that.

No way are we going to hold back the DL to test the secondary. But I think you have a point in one aspect. To keep the defensive scheme vanilla, we probably DID hold back the DL and LBs so that our blitz packages were under wraps. Slowik has a reputation for being aggressive, and we didn’t see much of that in the preseason.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 8, 2008 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We saw a little

Right at the end of the Arizona game the defense actually began to blitz. The results, if I remember correctly, were good (granted, against the Cardinals’ backups). I can’t wait to see the first team defense unleashed!

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Sep 8, 2008 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, we held back the blitz packages

and it’s pretty obvious that we’ll need to blitz to get pressure. That’s a risk, but with Bailey and Bly we can get away with it better than most. As Disco_Stu points out, it had an immediate effect in the Arizona game. Obviously, Slowik will come up with ways to rattle Russell, and oakland will try to counter that, maybe with quick slants. Do you think Al would micromanage to the point of insisting that they use certain plays, such as deep outs and post patterns? That would be our best chance to force him into a mistake.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Additional thought

The raiders run block a lot better than they pass block. They’re not nearly as good at the latter as Dallas and Green Bay. Is Robert Gallery at left or right guard? That might be a good place to attack.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unofficial Depth Chart, L to R

WR
84 Javon Walker
15 Johnnie Lee Higgins
81 Chaz Schilens

LT
77 Kwame Harris
75 Mario Henderson

LG
76 Robert Gallery
79 Paul McQuistan

C
64 Jake Grove
71 John Wade
51 Chris Morris

RG
66 Cooper Carlisle (an old friend)
78 Fred Wakefield

RT
74 Cornell Green
72 Seth Wand

TE
80 Zach Miller
85 John Madsen
86 Tony Stewart

WR
84 Javon Walker
89 Ronald Curry
19 Todd Watkins
87 Ashley Lelie

FB
36 Justin Griffith
44 Luke Lawton

RB
25 Justin Fargas
20 Darren McFadden
29 Michael Bush

QB
2 JaMarcus Russell
16 Andrew Walter
8 Marques Tuiasosopo

Atwater for the Hall!

by broncobear on Sep 8, 2008 3:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eleven o-linemen!

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine it being that bad.

An owner actually calling in plays goes beyond suicide. With that kind of arrogance (and ignorance), why even hre a head coach?

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 8, 2008 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta keep appearances up that you aren't the coach

Also avoids paying taxes as coach/GM/ and owner, just has to pay for GM and owner.

"How do the berries taste Ralph?" Bart Simpson
"They taste like burning." Ralph Wigam
Broncoman

by Broncoman on Sep 8, 2008 6:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Diehard prediction: Denver 31 - Oak 16

"If Denver beats us, I'll walk back to Detroit" - Alex Karras

by Denver Diehard on Sep 8, 2008 9:45 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The biggest advantage we have..

is our pass offense. We suffer a little bit by missing Marshall, but that is negated by a few factors.

1. Cutler is better than JM.
2. Our pass rush should be better.
3. Walker may have flashes of brilliance, but he remains injured.

The biggest question mark will be our LBs. While I think we have better potential that the raiders at LB, we still have yet to see how well we do at SAM and MLB during the regular season.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Sep 8, 2008 10:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent analysis Guru, thanks

I am the third buzzer vote!

On the other hand, moldy faders stink….styg50 Sept.1, 2008

by firstfan on Sep 8, 2008 10:49 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I knew I could rely on you...

Thanks FF!

-TSG

www.milehighreport.com

by John Bena (aka TheSportsGuru) on Sep 8, 2008 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want to see

1) Cutler hitting at least 4 different receivers
2) Steady running game
3) Any resemblance of a pass-rush
4) NO INJURIES!

by binford04 on Sep 8, 2008 11:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't wait

to see Cutler-to-Royal bomb

Jason
The Hanging Curve

by poorboywilly on Sep 8, 2008 11:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

pretty solid post,

Raider Fan here, and I think it will come down to the Quaterbacks.

-Can Jay Cutler do enough to overcome the Raiders secondary and lead his team to victory without his favorite target?

-Can Jamarcus Russell protect the ball and throw well enough to and keep the defense honest enough to let the run game carry us to victory?

by autumnwind on Sep 8, 2008 1:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

and yes,

Jay Cutler is the better qb.

At the moment atleast……

by autumnwind on Sep 8, 2008 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, and welcome!!

Your questions are valid and have been asked in my head a million times since it was known that Marshall would miss this game…

-TSG

www.milehighreport.com

by John Bena (aka TheSportsGuru) on Sep 8, 2008 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

That’s our advantage, that Cutler’s further along in his development even if we assume (not a certainty) that JM will also become an elite QB.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good analysis

Atwater for the Hall!

by broncobear on Sep 8, 2008 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing you may have failed to mention

FB- Raiders starter is out and Denver may have a serious weapon in Hillis, I look for the Broncos to try to get the ball in his hands a lot either screens or draws, I think him and Graham may be the weapons that we use more than people would think this week.

"How do the berries taste Ralph?" Bart Simpson
"They taste like burning." Ralph Wigam
Broncoman

by Broncoman on Sep 8, 2008 1:03 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 2:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

As and A's fan

Throw in the towel and let them put grass in already

Go Broncos!!!
35-7

The quest is the Highway to the Danger Zone-Kenny loggins

by TommyTSlice on Sep 8, 2008 1:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

all for it

Maybe the A’s could win one if the infield was grassed over. Would stop those sharp hit grounders sneaking past slow ass Crosby….

by jonahsilas on Sep 8, 2008 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great Analysis

i got 33-13 broncos with eddie royal having a MONSTER game!!!!!!!

by broncoboy on Sep 8, 2008 2:42 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent analysis, by the way, which I recommended

I think our defense against the rush might be improved, if the first team’s preseason stats are an indication (they sure were last year!), but I wonder how much we sacrificed pass defense in order to get that 3.4 (or whatever it was) in preseason? A matchup consideration is that oakland might less capable than most teams of punishing us for overcommitting against the run. Aaaaaarrrgh! All this analysis. Must…wait…for…game. Tick…tick…tick…tick.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Sep 8, 2008 3:27 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Russell

I say he will throw two picks. It always seems like the younger QB’s keep thinking “who’s Champ Bailey?” And then after testing him a couple of times, they learn about him real quick.

ps. First post, yay! I’ve been lurking for a while after checking out MHR after joing the avalanche blog. Great stuff!

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Sep 8, 2008 3:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm loving the cross-over

MHR, Mile High Hockey, Purple Row…good times!

~Uffdah

by Disco_Stu on Sep 8, 2008 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

by poorboywilly on Sep 8, 2008 5:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Good job as usual, Guru. Good post and welcome to AutumnWind as well.

BumpityBump^

I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.
Shaquille O'Neal

by tannji on Sep 8, 2008 5:36 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Eddie Royal gets his first shot as well, but my expectations are reserved for rookie wide receivers. Any production we get from Royal tonight will be a bonus.

I guess no one told Eddie and Jay on that first drive!

Atwater for the Hall!

by broncobear on Sep 8, 2008 8:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs