MHR Draft Pick Point Value Resource

by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 12, 2009 7:34 PM MST in 2009 NFL Draft Comment 6 comments

This chart is pretty straightforward, though I would like to note that it is in NO WAY an 'official' chart in use by the NFL. This chart does, however, make a good starting off point for evaluating pick-for-pick trade values. I do believe that NFL teams are moving away from this model of pick valuation, especially in the last year, as this model has historically rated mid-round picks far less valuable than the contributions gained from individuals chosen at those spots, though it is closer to being accurate when the production from those spots is averaged. Until the NFL teams start talking about newer ways of ranking draft slots, however, this chart will serve us well.

On Feb. 9th, Broncoman found this link to a 52 page study which dissects this type of point-value trade chart (originally created as a type of demon spawn from Jerry Jones). It is called the Thaler and Massey study.


#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	3000¹	580³³	265⁶⁵	112⁹⁷	43¹²⁹	27¹⁶¹	14.2¹⁹³
2	2600²	560³⁴	260⁶⁶	108⁹⁸	42¹³⁰	26.6¹⁶²	13.8¹⁹⁴
3	2200³	550³⁵	255⁶⁷	104⁹⁹	41¹³¹	26.2¹⁶³	13.4¹⁹⁵
4	1800⁴	540³⁶	250⁶⁸	100¹⁰⁰	40¹³²	25.8¹⁶⁴	13¹⁹⁶
5	1700⁵	530³⁷	245⁶⁹	96¹⁰¹	39.5¹³³	25.4¹⁶⁵	12.6¹⁹⁷
6	1600⁶	520³⁸	240⁷⁰	92¹⁰²	39¹³⁴	25¹⁶⁶	12.2¹⁹⁸
7	1500⁷	510³⁹	235⁷¹	88¹⁰³	38.5¹³⁵	24.6¹⁶⁷	11.8¹⁹⁹
8	1400⁸	500⁴⁰	230⁷²	86¹⁰⁴	38¹³⁶	24.2¹⁶⁸	11.4²⁰⁰
9	1350⁹	490⁴¹	225⁷³	84¹⁰⁵	37.5¹³⁷	23.8¹⁶⁹	11²⁰¹
10	1300¹⁰	480⁴²	220⁷⁴	82¹⁰⁶	37¹³⁸	23.4¹⁷⁰	10.6²⁰²
11	1250¹¹	470⁴³	215⁷⁵	80¹⁰⁷	36.5¹³⁹	23¹⁷¹	10.2²⁰³
12	1200¹²	460⁴⁴	210⁷⁶	78¹⁰⁸	36¹⁴⁰	22.6¹⁷²	9.8²⁰⁴
13	1150¹³	450⁴⁵	205⁷⁷	76¹⁰⁹	35.5¹⁴¹	22.2¹⁷³	9.4²⁰⁵
14	1100¹⁴	440⁴⁶	200⁷⁸	74¹¹⁰	35¹⁴²	21.8¹⁷⁴	9²⁰⁶
15	1050¹⁵	430⁴⁷	195⁷⁹	72¹¹¹	34.5¹⁴³	21.4¹⁷⁵	8.6²⁰⁷
16	1000¹⁶	420⁴⁸	190⁸⁰	70¹¹²	34¹⁴⁴	21¹⁷⁶	8.2²⁰⁸
17	950¹⁷	410⁴⁹	185⁸¹	68¹¹³	33.5¹⁴⁵	20.6¹⁷⁷	7.8²⁰⁹
18	900¹⁸	400⁵⁰	180⁸²	66¹¹⁴	33¹⁴⁶	20.2¹⁷⁸	7.4²¹⁰
19	875¹⁹	390⁵¹	175⁸³	64¹¹⁵	32.6¹⁴⁷	19.8¹⁷⁹	7.0²¹¹
20	850²⁰	380⁵²	170⁸⁴	62¹¹⁶	32.2¹⁴⁸	19.4¹⁸⁰	6.6²¹²
21	800²¹	370⁵³	165⁸⁵	60¹¹⁷	31.8¹⁴⁹	19¹⁸¹	6.2²¹³
22	780²²	360⁵⁴	160⁸⁶	58¹¹⁸	31.4¹⁵⁰	18.6¹⁸²	5.8²¹⁴
23	760²³	350⁵⁵	155⁸⁷	56¹¹⁹	31¹⁵¹	18.2¹⁸³	5.4²¹⁵
24	740²⁴	340⁵⁶	150⁸⁸	54¹²⁰	30.6¹⁵²	17.8¹⁸⁴	5²¹⁶
25	720²⁵	330⁵⁷	145⁸⁹	52¹²¹	30.2¹⁵³	17.4¹⁸⁵	4.6²¹⁷
26	700²⁶	320⁵⁸	140⁹⁰	50¹²²	29.8¹⁵⁴	17¹⁸⁶	4.2²¹⁸
27	680²⁷	310⁵⁹	136⁹¹	49¹²³	29.4¹⁵⁵	16.6¹⁸⁷	3.8²¹⁹
28	660²⁸	300⁶⁰	132⁹²	48¹²⁴	29¹⁵⁶	16.2¹⁸⁸	3.4²²⁰
29	640²⁹	292⁶¹	128⁹³	47¹²⁵	28.6¹⁵⁷	15.8¹⁸⁹	3²²¹
30	620³⁰	284⁶²	124⁹⁴	46¹²⁶	28.2¹⁵⁸	15.4¹⁹⁰	2.6²²²
31	600³¹	276⁶³	120⁹⁵	45¹²⁷	27.8¹⁵⁹	15¹⁹¹	2.3²²³
32	590³²	270⁶⁴	116⁹⁶	44¹²⁸	27.4¹⁶⁰	14.6¹⁹²	2²²⁴

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Comments

I think

someone should release an updated chart. There’s just too much money involved in the higher picks for them to have that much more valuable than the others, imo. It’s pretty ridiculous to think that the difference between the 3rd pick and our pick is the rest of our draft picks. Unless you have a guaranteed HOF for at least 15 years sitting there, there’s no way you can reasonably give up all of your picks to move up in the first based on a chart made nearly 20 years ago when the financial ramifications were completely different.

This is nothing against you posting the chart, of course, just that I wish someone would give us a new chart that makes more sense.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by SlamDunkTheFunk on Jan 14, 2009 12:22 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

averaging (which this chart is based on) is a horrible way of analyzing sets of data. Even working witha median would only make it so-so.

And frankly, outside of fanboys, who would actually refer to a chart like this? I guarantee the only teams who refer to this chart anymore are the ones who are trying to pulloff a draftrape of another team: