could you please make this pretty? Right now it’s formatting hell.

Kennoy Kennedy and Hixon weren’t busts…they play(ed) well for other teams. :) I think it’s too early to call anyone drafted from 2006-now a bust. And what’s up with all the Nate Wayne hate? He was the bomb!

Ditto to chris myers dude…

How is Hixon a bust, dude is playing lights out for the Giants, Myers starting center for the Texans, Foxworth looks like he will be a starter for Atlanta, Reggie Hayward is a starter for the Jags, Gold had a good career.

I included players who went on to have good careers elsewhere as busts. After all, what did they do for us? Sure, Shanny drafted some good players, but then he didn’t develop them and shipped them off without hesitation.

I know it is harsh to jump on a player taken in a very late round. However, these players should at least stick around for a few years and provide depth. Hardly any of our players did this. They all were out of the league in a flash of smoke.

It is a crap shoot at best, ever team will miss on players, what Shanahan problem was that he had a strech from 98-04 where he had some bad misses in the 1st through 3rd rounds, to me you need to average a 80% hit rate in the 1st round (too much money is tied to those picks to miss more than that), about 70% in the 2nd round, and about 60% in the 3rd round, and if you bat 40% or better in rounds 4-7 then you will be golden. But when you hand out big time contracts to the likes of Middlebrooks, Nash, O’Neal, and Foster it really cripples the oraganization in a 5 year period because those guys should be in the top tier of their positions at that time.

I’m not sure if it’s that out of the ordinary to have the majority of your drafts not work out. I really only follow the Broncos so closely so I don’t have a basis for comparison.

Nevertheless, great breakdown. It’d be interesting to see some sort of stat (NICK84) comparing what percentage of a teams drafts in the last ten years or so are still: 1. starting for that team; 2. on the team; 3. starting in the NFL; 4. in the NFL.

What constitutes a BUST? I would say that if a 7th rounder makes your team that’s all you could really expect. You have to evaluate draft picks relative to expectations. Was Brian Greise really a bust or just typical of a 3rd round QB? George Foster started for us for many years, he just didn’t fulfill the expectations of a number one pick.

Other than Clarret, everyone in the 2005 draft made the team. Foxworth played in the playoffs (just for another team), Paymah is still with the Broncos, Myers and Ernster are still in the NFL (Ernster’s playing with the Steelers) and the Myers trade enabled us to get Wiegman. Granted Shanahan wasn’t the best, but he had a lot of hits as well. He liked to gamble. The problem was the number of good players we did get who we then let get away.

Nick Eason is still playing, he is with the Steelers, not a bust. You may been too harsh on the “bust” label but very appropriately nailed the, “you didn’t do crap for us” label.

Good job!

do you really think that Brian Gragert was a bust???

Come on, man!

Then there is Hayward.

I think Papi was relaying their value to this team. Don’t forget, the reason we lost Hayward, Berry, ect…was because of Darryl Gardner and Champ.

Here’s the real difference in my mind – Shanahan picked up Terrel Davis and thought that somehow he could replicate that instead of just realizing he got lucky.

Belichick picks up Brady but doesn’t use that as an excuse to abandon good analysis in the pursuit of the next Brady.

I loved Shanahan the coach, but Shanahan the GM was incompetent.

I’m too new to remember him, but his numbers suggests he posted 3 decent season and 1 great one!

I would certainly guess thats above average for a 3rd round QB – he still has a job, mind you… 11 seasons is a loooong time in the not for long league…

Usually, when you get to the 3rd round, the QB talent level’s dropping faster than the German Reichmark in the 1940’s or the self-esteem of a 2008 Detroit Lion or a pass thrown to Braylon Edwards or… You get the picture…

You know I do a series every year about this…Though not as much need for it now…

You can see it here —

Shanny and the Draft

I come away with one thing. How in the world can Shanahan suck that bad at the draft? I mean it seems like we get one good pick each draft, except for the ones that were a total loss.

Coach McDaniels, you have to be better than that.

I don’t think Sam Brandon, Dominique Foxworth, or Carl Paymah were busts at all. You ar ebeing a little harsh on them ;)

I don’t take the majority of this seriously. It looks as if your opinion of a “BUST” is someone who isn’t really damn good.

I’ll start at the top.

1995-No disagreements with the first draft, though I would say that having zero picks until the fourth round and still finding 2 Pro Bowlers, 1 of whom ended up being an MVP, is a pretty damn successful draft. Now it gets fun.

 1996-Tory James as a bust? Really? Seriously?? Patrick Jeffers wasn’t great, but he hung around the league long enough to have one monster year in Carolina and blow at least one of his knees out. Darius Johnson was servicable for a bit, but I wouldn’t have much of an argument against him being a bust.

1997-Pryce and Neil made that draft damn successful. No complaints.

1998-While the draft wasn’t ideal for us, we drafted guys in Brown, Griese, Teague, and Wayne that all played in the league for quite a long time. In Griese’s case, still playing for us. While a lot of this can be argued that these guys succeeded largely away from Denver, Griese actually produced in Denver. You can’t tell me there aren’t some teams who would love to have that 19:4 TD:INT ratio. Labeling him as a bust is completely mystifying.

1999-Friedman was mostly a backup, but still valuable depth for a few years and managed to hang on in the league for a while. Hell, he might even still be hanging around. You also can’t forget Bowens, who ended up with a pretty nice career for himself in Miami for a while. Otherwise, your list is fine.

On to 2000, where I have a huge issue with your selections as busts. O’Neal, while run out of town here, wasn’t terrible and even posted a 10INT year (I think. I’m doing all of this from memory) and had some good years in CIncy, too. He lived up to his billing of being a high risk, high reward type of player his whole career and considering he was a RB at Cal to start with, has had a successful NFL career. Ian Gold as a bust is you being completely unreasonable. Ian Gold was a very good player for us for his career, save his final season in which he clearly had lost “it”. How you can qualify him as a bust is absolutely beyond me. Kenoy Kennedy was a pretty damn good safety for us who priced himself off the team when free agency rolled around. He’s another guy I don’t understand the bust label on. Chris Cole you have more of an argument, but he was a decent kickoff returner for a few years before teams finally gave up on him.

2001-While the first two picks of the ‘01 class are complete busts, the rest of the draft gets a little shaky. Calling Reggie Hayward a bust suggests to me that you’ve never seen Reggie Hayward play football before. He was damn good for us, and I don’t think Jacksonville has minded him being around that much (His contract, maybe. His ability? no). Nick Harris looked to be a bust for a while, but he’s still in the NFL as a servicable punter, so I don’t think there’s anyway to view him as one now. Similar thoughts on Kasper, as he never lived up to his Tim Dwight comparison, but still managed to play in the league for several years. A several year career out of a 7th rounder should in no way be viewed as a “bust”.

2002-Labeling Lelie as a bust is probably pretty popular here, but I think it’s unfair. Anybody who knew anything about him coming out of college wasn’t expecting a #1 stud receiver. His ceiling was as a legit #2 who would stretch the field as well as anyone. In fact, I’m pretty sure that’s exactly who he became before his ego got the best of him and he’s never recovered. I think to call Lelie a bust in terms of a first rounder and how his career has gone is fine, but as a talented player in this league who continues to find work, he’s not an overall bust. Sam Brandon was not a bust. There’s not even an argument there. He was one of the best safeties in football at covering the tight end until his body betrayed him. Indefensible selection as a bust. Monsanto Pope was a 7TH ROUNDER, who ended up starting for us and at times was our best DT. I dunno if he’s still hanging on in the league, but there’s no way he was a bust considering he was a 7th rounder.

2003 was a complete bust. Good call.

2004 is another year I’m pretty much in agreement with you on. Mauck did spend some time with the Titans after being signed off our practice squad (I think. Again, this is all off the top of my head). I’m not sure what to expect from a 7th round QB, but calling him a bust is fine with me.

2005…Well, let’s just say we disagree again. Paymah, Foxworth, Myers, and Ernster were all decent for us, and in the cases of all by Paymah, were solid for other teams, as well. Ernster is the one where the bust label has the best fit, but for a 7th round punter from Northern Arizona, I think he’s done pretty damn well for himself. Myers was the starting center in Houston all year, and has a decent shot to repeat the feat next year. While he wasn’t great, he was decent enough to warrant another year in the league. Paymah is a polarizing figure, I’m sure, because of his obvious physical talents to match his equally as frustrating brain. The guy still doesn’t seem to have put it all together, but as a dime back, I’m happy to have him.

2006-The only guy I think you can make a case for being a bust is actually Eslinger, and he’s still hanging around and could do something for us. Overall, this looks like a pretty strong draft, and when it relates to ho they did on our team it turns into a very strong draft.

2007-Moss and Crowder don’t look too good, but it’s still early. They just finished their second seasons, so it’s too early to make any final judgments on them.

2008-We’ll see how Barrett, Williams, and Powell all fare down the road, but everyone else seems to be pretty solid or better.

Overall, if you’re talking about how Shanny’s picks related to their time specifically with Denver, then my disagreements get cut down by quite a bit (though I will disagree with you on Ian Gold every single step of the way). However, that distinction wasn’t made, and I think having a successful NFL career as a 5th round pick or lower, when very little is expected of you, is pretty impressive. The argument that usually shows off how much of a failure at the draft process Shanny was is how their success was while in Denver. That specific record is impossible to argue with as he was pretty poor, but going back and looking at all the guys he picked, he was right about a lot of the talent he picked. He just didn’t wait long enough to let that talent develop.

Also, if you’re going to champion “The Patriot Way” that selected, you know, Tom Brady, as part of the process, you’re just being insane. I don’t think there’s any argument that the Pats got just as lucky with Brady as we did with TD. You can slap the failure tag on Shanahan for his multiple first round failures, but if you go back and look JUST at the 6th round of the list you posted, you should see that he actually had pretty good damn success at the end of the draft. For the most part, I think Shanahan’s problem was NOT in who he drafted, but in how he developed that talent and how long he stayed with them. Like I said, if you look at the names and the production of the guys he actually drafted, Shanahan was MUCH better than he’s ever been given credit for, especially on this site. However, it was his decisions AFTER drafting them that killed him.

What this chart also doesn’t show is the multiple successes Shanahan had in the undrafted free agent pool. I’d be willing to bet Shanny produced more quality undrafted players than most teams in the league, if not all of them.

I also feel the need to note that I haven’t read any of the discussion up to this point. Coming into a discussion that’s already 64 comments old isn’t usually my bag, but I disagreed strongly enough with this post that I felt the need to post something (but not strongly enough to read everyone else’s thoughts).

I’m curious to see how Shanny stacks up against other team’s drafts. I certainly think he’d come out on top of the AFC West.

I don’t think O’neal or Gold were busts. You have to look at if players filled needs. You are never going to be able to draft all-pro players in every round. Sometimes you pick a 4th string WR in the 6th round of a draft and that is the whole he is ment to fill and he does that and does it well. Some would say he is a bust because he never became a #1 WR. But if you picked him up to be a 4th string WR and he is and does that well is he a bust? On a 53 man roster not every person is ment to be a starter.

something like the following could be used, I’m sure we’d tweak it, but it gets the point across:

SC – solid contributor (started 4+ seasons for Denver – Cutler, Mobley, Dj, I’d put guys who will project as starters for 3+ years in here too, like Royal, Hillis, Clady, Marshall, etc)
WC – weak contributor (started for 3 seasons or less – Hayward, Tatum Bell, George Foster, etc.)
PC – part time contributor (started in spots or situational player – think Jarvis Moss, Watts)
SD – solid depth (on depth chart for more than 2 seasons – Paymah, Teague, Detron Smith)
WD – weak depth (on depth chart 1- 2 seasons – think BVP, Nash)
HS – Holy Sh*T (colossal bust – didn’t make the team w/i 1st 2 years – Mo Clarett, Terry Pierce, or Jamie Brown)

to the draft I will re-run my Shanny and the Draft series…..It puts all of this into perspective….

YAY PAPI!!!

Shanny probably should’ve been canned after the Clarett business.

Slightly OT – I post regularly at Let’s Go Tribe and they have generally eschewed using the Subject Line … I’ve gotten used to it over there and it certainly makes a page full of comments easier to read, and it doesn’t really change the emphasis of the post since commenters very quickly make their points in the comment body. Anyone concur on this?

if you say that our drafts have been “average.” Our drafts, until ‘06 have been absolutely inexcusable. I looked at these same charts on ESPN a week or so ago and that’s when I realized how bad Shanny was at evaluating talent. I mean come on man.

One starter in 4 years (’02 – ’05)?

I would not consider Brian Griese a draft bust, even though he eventually pooped out. But, before then, he achieved the highest QB rating in the league and was a Pro Bowl alternate. And he did that as a third-rounder. A draft bust never achieves much of anything out of the gate. In fact, Griese had five years under his belt before leaving the Broncos. A lot of people might not realize it, but even in his last year here, Griese passed for 3,214 yards, with a 66.7 completion ratio. And he’s still playing in the league. I don’t know what more one would expect from a third-round quarterback.

Also, Crowder isn’t yet a bust since he’s still here, which means the jury’s still out. Same with Moss, who had been fighting a staff infection that robbed severely of his physical strength and stamina. And I think Thomas deserves a smile: any fourth-rounder or later who is starting definitely deserves a smile.