Follow Up To MHR Radio 1-14-09

by Tim Lynch on Jan 15, 2009 4:38 PM MST Comment 33 comments

JohnnyB got me to thinking about something on his recent broadcast on MHR Radio. He was talking about the Broncos being 24-24 over the past three seasons and how many of those were last second could have gone either way finishes. I've decided to back what he said up with a little chart that will separate each game into three distinct categories. Games we won decisively, games we won close, and games we were blown out in. I will only profile the last two seasons since I really think it was 2007 and 2008 that led Pat Bowlen to go in a different direction, plus it is unfair to judge 2006 since we had two different starting quarterbacks that year.

The results are shocking to say the least.

Decisive Wins
Date	Opponent	Score
November 11, 2007	@ Kansas City Chiefs	27-11
November 19, 2007	Tennessee Titans	34-20
December 9, 2007	Kansas City Chiefs	41-7
September 8, 2008	@ Oakland Raiders	41-14
November 30, 2008	@ New York Jets	34-17
Close Wins
Date	Opponent	Score
September 9, 2007	@ Buffalo Bills	15-14
September 16, 2007	Oakland Raiders	23-20 OT
October 21, 2007	Pittsburgh Steelers	31-28
December 30, 2007	Minnesota Vikings	22-19 OT
September 14, 2008	San Diego Chargers	39-38
September 21, 2008	New Orleans Saints	34-32
October 5, 2008	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16-13
November 6, 2008	@ Cleveland Browns	34-30
November 16, 2008	@ Atlanta Falcons	24-20
December 7, 2008	Kansas City Chiefs	24-17
Blowout Losses
Date	Opponent	Score
September 30, 2007	@ Indianapolis Colts	38-20
October 7, 2007	San Diego Chargers	41-3
November 4, 2007	@ Detroit Lions	44-7
December 2, 2007	@ Oakland Raiders	34-20
December 13, 2007	@ Houston Texans	31-13
December 24, 2007	@ San Diego Chargers	23-3
September 28, 2008	@ Kansas City Chiefs	33-19
October 20, 2008	@ New England Patriots	41-7
November 23, 2008	Oakland Raiders	31-10
December 14, 2008	@ Carolina Panthers	30-10
December 28, 2008	@ San Diego Chargers	52-21

Keep in mind we were 15-17 over the past two seasons. Of those 17 losses, eleven were by two or more touchdowns. 65% of our losses were what I would consider blowouts over the last two seasons. SIXTY-FIVE PERCENT! Now, of our 15 victories, ten of those were won by the skin of our pants. Realistically, an average team would win about half of their close games. The Broncos won nearly 2/3's of their close games over the past two seasons. They could have very easily finished with 4-5 wins in either season. That's the good news, our guys know how to win close games. The bad news is that they are unable to overcome any sort of adversity early in games. After seeing this chart, I wonder if the Bronco's record belies its true talent. Not in the "they were 8-8 but should be 13-3" way, but in the "they were 8-8 but should have been 4-12" way.

As scary as 4-12 sounds to a Bronco fan, the transitional period that will be the 2009 season may be a little rough for us fans to swallow. I only hope Pat Bowlen expects a rough year and will stay the course for the playoffs in 2010. This is not to say the Broncos won't make the playoffs in 2009, but I am just saying that I'm not going to rah rah this offseason about 13-3 or anything like that. I am hoping for an 8-8 season next year and that, to me, will be a huge step in the right direction.

I still can't get over the 65% number....jeez! What a rough couple of years for us Broncomaniac's, eh? Especially to see the Chargers up there three times, the Raiders twice, and the Chiefs once. Uhg!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

12 recs | Comment 33 comments

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Comments

How did you do those charts?

Haha, nevermind. But I do notice that almost all of our “close wins” come at home, and most of our “blowout losses” are on the road. Do you think that signifies anything?

Prove to me that you exist. Do it. Anyone. Just look at my sig, think about the question, and give it a go.

by papigrande on Jan 15, 2009 5:02 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It signifies that we suck on the road. lol

I don’t know really…it also means that we are not very dominate at home. If we can barely win at home and get blown out on the road then we are NOT an 8-8 team. We are much worse than an 8-8 team…we should be grateful we are 15-17 over the past two seasons.

This is my GAP, there are many like it but this one is mine. Without my GAP I am useless, without me, they will run through my GAP. I will protect my GAP and have my brothers back on his. I will not be moved from my GAP, I am a crazed dog that patrols this area and will defeat all who entire it. I own this GAP, it is mine. I bought it with blood and sweat. I will not be pushed. I will not be moved. This Sunday I will make a stand and a statement.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 15, 2009 5:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You

must have showed these to Bowlen a few weeks ago.

"Be not like dumb-driven cattle...."

by jcps on Jan 16, 2009 11:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It also signified that we suck at home. I.e., we suck!

There’s a term d’art for decribing football teams that get clobbered n the road and squeak by with diminishing frequency at home. It is: bad football teams.

by Chibronx on Jan 17, 2009 1:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Just a gut feeling

Despite the overwhelming evidence you present, I think that the massive changes we are currently undergoing will bring a breath of fresh air to the team in 2009. 10-6 maybe baby!

Thanks to Mike Shanahan, a great coach who will be dearly missed. But...
Let's all get on the Mac Daddy Express!
Hillis for starter next year. He wears special thigh pads so his solid brass balls don't give him repeated thigh contusions.

by 53guys on Jan 15, 2009 5:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I would be on cloud 9 if that happened! :)

by Tim Lynch on Jan 15, 2009 5:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I look it at in another way

At least when they get the blowout losses out of their system this team will know how to WIN the close games.

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Jan 15, 2009 5:39 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...it is kind of a good news/bad news thing.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 15, 2009 5:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Great stats and post, Zappa

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 15, 2009 6:12 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You get a rec for proper formatting of tables, WTF!

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Jan 15, 2009 6:18 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

lol thanks.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 16, 2009 1:21 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd

and depressing… it’s easier to let Shanny go with each passing day.

by CoastalBronco on Jan 15, 2009 6:18 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm feeling the same way

and the more I read about McDaniels, the better I feel about the decision.

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"tough times don't last, tough people do" - Mike "The Mastermind" Shanahan

by DesertBroncoFan on Jan 16, 2009 10:02 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Article Zappa I figured our

record over the last couple of years was like this……Recorded…..
but will someone tell me how……….

I see said the Blind man to the Deaf man who was near.
What is it you hear when I speak in your ear.

by UB3 on Jan 15, 2009 6:28 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I have no answer...other than we fired the "how".

It is getting easier with each passing day to let go of Shanny.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 16, 2009 1:22 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Zappa, great post...

Here is my take on the blowouts..

Denver is undersized. To be successful being undersized you must use your speed and agility to secure the proper angles, whether blocking or shedding blocks. When the Broncos know that they are getting pushed around and as it unfolds that they are likely to lose, they shut it down, don’t run as hard, then get blown out.

by Steve O' on Jan 15, 2009 7:23 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You are likely right.

It goes both ways too…offense and defense. They are not TOUGH enough to win physical games.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 16, 2009 1:23 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Rec that!

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 17, 2009 7:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Great work

I think Bronco fans have been spoiled since 1977.

We get a top 3 all time QB for 16 years, have not had to suffer mentioned 6-10 or worse seasons for more than one year every decade. 7 AFC west appearances, 6 SB appearances, back to back SB’s.

I am guessing I move up on the season tix waiting list the next 2 years.

by broncosteven on Jan 15, 2009 7:40 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

We have had exactly FIVE losing seasons since 1975.

And we have gone 8-8 just six times during that span. Not bad if you ask me….but the truth is, Shanny was 24-24 from 2006-2008. Perhaps change was necessary… the last time this team was 24-24 over a three year span was from 1992-1994 and guess who is our new coach in 1995? :) We may end up 8-8 again this year, but 13-3 in 2010 baby!

by Tim Lynch on Jan 16, 2009 1:26 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

GOOD LUCK

I just moved up to 15,000+ and I’ve been on the list for 6yrs. HA!

Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!

by monodono on Jan 17, 2009 3:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be too worried about the transition year.

As scary as 4-12 sounds to a Bronco fan, the transitional period that will be the 2009 season may be a little rough for us fans to swallow. I only hope Pat Bowlen expects a rough year and will stay the course for the playoffs in 2010.

Look at Baltimore – 5-11 in 2007. With a rookie head coach (Harbaugh is much like McDaniels in terms of age and background) and a rookie QB, they are now 13-5. They had a great D in place, we have a great o in place. I’m not drinking KoolAid here – just saying…

Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. When the fear has gone past, I will turn to see fear’s path. Where the fear has gone, there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

Bene Gesserit saying. (From Dune, by Frank Herbert)

by bradley on Jan 16, 2009 10:10 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

we are not Baltimore....I doubt our rookie HC will have a championship D to depend on.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 17, 2009 2:27 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

but. . . never say never

somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong

by broncfanstuckinsd on Jan 17, 2009 1:34 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome.

That is exactly what I was talking about….Even if you add the games that Jay started in 2006, the Cincinnati game comes to mind as one the Broncos could have easily lost(missed extra point would have forced overtime).

Its great to see a theory proven by solid research….

-TSG

SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
MileHighReport

Questions, Comments...E-Mail Me!
milehighreport@gmail.com

by John Bena on Jan 16, 2009 4:25 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

That may be what Pat Bowlin was thinking...

as he came home from the SD game. “How come we win by the skin of our teeth and get blown out when we lose?”

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 16, 2009 6:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice research and table Zappa.

I am with you, 65% is absoulutly horrible. I know we aren’t a good team, but damn. Six of our blowout losses are to divisional opponents, which makes it worse.

We know how to win close games, so we can do something right.

"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan

Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 9

by weazel on Jan 16, 2009 7:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Six of our blowout losses are to divisional opponents, which makes it worse.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 17, 2009 2:31 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Just The Defense

The number of blowout losses is disturbing, but let’s look deeper. The conventional wisdom is that our defense is terrible and preventing us from being a playoff team, and the offense can score at will.

Yet the most we scored in any of the blowout losses is 21 points. Look at the other totals:
3, 7, 3, 7, 10, & 10 points. What is happening in these games? The offense completely shuts down, and cannot score at will like many think. Very disturbing!

by xandervan on Jan 17, 2009 12:08 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

In all but the 21 pt game the reason the offense shut down is because it had some early turnovers

and one thing we all know is that early turnovers spell disaster for our offense…the one except was the Cleveland Browns game.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 17, 2009 2:28 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Are we screwed guys? This was a really depressing post for me.

by broncoholic on Jan 17, 2009 6:33 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

If you were expecting SB next year, yes....

but if you are thinking 2-3 years not. While not as sunny as some fans would like, this post is about reality. The Broncos are not as good as some stats might indicate and that’s why I think Bowlin decided we needed to go in a new direction. But it’s doable. Our offensive woes are due to turnovers (especially red zone turnovers) and red zone efficiency (which is obviously affected by turnovers). Those are fixable through better coaching and better play calling. Given McDaniels history at NE I feel very good about the offense. The defense is in serious need of repair. But we have two fixes for that, 9 draft picks and $50 in cap space. Next year I think we have a good chance of being 8-8 of 9-7, but solid at that level. We should beat the lesser teams and hang tough with the better teams. Another 9 picks and $50 mill later and we should be back in the hunt in 2010.

To some degree we thought we were better than we were because we beat teams that everyone else thought were better than they were: Tampa Bay, the Jests, the Saints. The only playoff caliber team we even played well against was Atlanta.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 17, 2009 8:08 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs