Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 5:00 AM MST Comment 63 comments

It's another week, and that can only mean one thing. Time for more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Yay!!!!

1. I know the caution alarm has been being sounded on MHR that there is a chance that the 4-3 will be kept next season. I even sounded that alarm once, myself. But now, judging from various comments made by Josh McDaniels and Mike Nolan, I think it is pretty safe to assume that the 3-4 is coming. That has gotten me thinking about holdover personnel, and it's not a pretty picture.

We really don't have too many front 7 people who are good fits for the 3-4. I can say that I am pretty sure that Marcus Thomas and Spencer Larsen are good fits, as they both looked good during the midseason experimentation. I can say that I am pretty sure that Dewayne Robertson, John Engelberger, Ebenezer Ekuban, Jamie Winborn and Boss Bailey are bad fits. There's nobody else who I even have a strong feeling about, one way or another. What would be terrific is if Jarvis Moss converts well to OLB and Tim Crowder comes into his own as a DE, as Pro Football Weekly speculated over the weekend. On the back end, I expect Dre Bly to be released because of his price tag.

2. The real question to me is what to do with DJ Williams? He doesn't fit the profile of 3-4 ILB or OLB. On the inside, you're looking for downhill strikers who can shed blocks. At OLB, you want athletes who can rush the passer, and drop back and play a short zone. DJ is a 4-3 OLB, through and through. He's a lateral pursuit, run-and-hit guy. If I could get a LB needy 4-3 team like the Saints to part with a second round pick for him, I think I'd do it. As much as DJ has been a nice player, his next game-changing play will be his first, and I just don't see him as a fit in a 30 front. Wesley Woodyard is a fit as a nickel LB, but not in a base 3-4. He's a minimum-wage guy, so it is a totally different situation than DJ.

3. There's this idea which has circulated through the ESPN-o-sphere the past couple years that the only way to build a good team is through the Draft. While paying a guy small money in the draft is usually preferable to paying an equal free agent big money, this draft-only ethos is way oversimplified, and just completely without factual basis.

If you look at this decade's model franchise, the Patriots, they spit in the face of the idea, actually. Since the arrival of the Belichick regime, the Patriots have annually grabbed up cheap veteran free agents (including Lamont Jordan, Heath Evans, Jabar Gaffney, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, Deltha O'Neal, and Rodney Harrison), who have then contributed mightily to their winning. Add in a couple key trades (Welker, Moss) and one big splash signing (Adalius Thomas,) and you get a nice supplement to successful drafting. The Patriots have always invested high draft picks on the defensive line, and you don't see a lot of free agent fill-ins there.

I bring up the Patriots, obviously, because of McDaniels. I expect the roster construction to begin to resemble what the Patriots have done. Honestly, it's already been going on in Denver for a couple years. Would anybody say that Brandon Stokley, Daniel Graham, or Michael Pittman were bad pickups? Most of the defensive acquisitions flopped lately, but the concept was right, if not the pro personnel evaluations. You need to do well in free agency, as well as the draft. Ignoring it totally is analogous to not hiring a special teams coach, because it doesn't matter.

4. If we have a 3-4 defense, I think we currently have 4 legitimate starting players, (assuming I am right about DJ Williams being moved, and Dre Bly being cut.) That is Marcus Thomas at RDE, Elvis Dumervil at LOLB, Spencer Larsen at ILB, and Champ Bailey at CB. You have Moss, Crowder, Woodyard, and Barrett who are maybe guys, but probably all 4 are situational players. So you need to find 7 starters between the draft and free agency. Here are some non-regurgitated ideas.

DE - People will excitedly talk about pie-in-the-sky names like Julius Peppers and Terrell Suggs (who'd be a 3-4 OLB, really.) The guy I like is Chris Canty from the Cowboys. He is 6-7, 300 pounds, and he's just a very impressive young 3-4 DE. He would be my number one target in the entire free agent class, actually, given a switch to the 3-4. An outside-the-box idea is planning ahead in the event that Richard Seymour gets cut due to a high cap number, as speculated on in the Boston media.

NT - In Free Agency, this is slim pickings. I wouldn't exactly call Albert Haynesworth ego-suppressed, and I think he's suited to be a 2-technique guy much more than a 0-technique. The only halfway credible true 0-technique is Tank Johnson, and we all know the baggage he brings. This should be a high draft priority, if not the highest.

ILB - A big-name guy who could actually be available is Bart Scott of the Ravens. He, Suggs, and Ray Lewis are all free agents, and it is believed that Scott will be the one to walk. He'd cost a lot, but he is excellent. The guy I like, and a guy who will be switching teams, is Channing Crowder. He played very well in a 3-4 for Miami this year, and would come significantly cheaper than Scott. Andra Davis, who has spent the past 7 years in Cleveland, is a lesser/cheaper option too.

OLB - Karlos Dansby is free, but he almost certainly isn't getting away from Arizona. All the other good names are 4-3 types. Rush LBs are fairly easy to find in the draft, and one should be gotten there.

CB - Nnamdi Asomugha is nominally free, but will never be a Bronco, so just forget about it. Dunta Robinson is free, but will cost a lot more than he is worth. I think CB becomes another draft priority, and just to throw out a name that I like, there's Sean Smith from Utah, who is 6-3, and plays with excellent technique. He's currently graded in the late 1st, early 2nd round area by most prognosticators, but he looks better on video than he will on a 40 track. I do think Justin Miller is worth signing as a KR in free agency. He's very dangerous.

S - There is a bunch of talent here in free agency. Sean Jones is the best all-around player, but he's had a few injury issues. Oshiomogho Atogwe is very good, and he's a ball-hawk. Jermaine Phillips is a very good SS, but he's best suited for Cover-2. The guy I like the best is Yeremiah Bell, who many will remember, I just heart his game. He's active, and always around the football. Scout.com has him with 2 stars out of 5, but I saw him play like a Pro Bowler this year. Another of their 2-star guys who are better than that is Jim Leonhard, who starts and plays well for Baltimore, and is also a good PR.

So, if I am the guy who is shopping, I would sign Chris Canty, Channing Crowder, Oshiomogho Atogwe, and Yeremiah Bell, and I additionally think about Andra Davis and Justin Miller if I can get them at reasonable prices. Those are all reasonably priced players. Then I draft BJ Raji in the first round (ESPN ranks him 14th overall,) Sean Smith in the second round (ESPN rank = 58th,) and Clay Matthews, Jr. in the third round (ESPN rank = 75th.)

My defense now looks like this:

Tell me that's not A) Plausible, and B) a huge improvement over the current mess.

By the way, I had an extra second round pick from trading DJ, and I took RB Shonn Greene from Iowa.

5. That was really long, so I'll move into the quicker-hitting stuff now. I like the Spagnuolo hiring for the Rams, especially because he was the guy Pioli was likely going to hire in Kansas City when Kirk Ferentz inevitably turns him down.

6. Jim Schwartz is going to turn the Lions program around, and I believe that Jeremy Bates will go there to help him, provided Al Davis doesn't name him Head Coach in Oakland. Schwartz and Bates are known to be long-time friends, and it just makes too much sense not to happen. They'll draft a combination of QB & LT in the first round this year, and have something to build with. The question is, do they take a Stafford or Sanchez first and a Jason Smith type 20th, or a Andre Smith or Michael Oher first and a Nate Davis type 20th. I would personally go the first route, but if they fall in love with Davis, option 2 could be the way.

7. Mike Lombardi had an excellent and insightful piece on Jon Gruden on National Football Post. They worked together for many years in Philadelphia and Oakland, and Lombardi thinks that Gruden's inability to fall in love with a QB was ultimately his undoing. It's hard to imagine what Tampa is thinking about that position at this point. I wonder if they're not considering being players in the Cassel sweepstakes.

8. I think the Jets will hire Rex Ryan, and the Raiders will still probably re-up with Tom Cable, though he'll only last this one year. There are rumors that Don Martindale was very impressive in interviewing, but Davis virtually always hires offensive guys. The Chiefs will ultimately fire Herman Edwards, and end up hiring Todd Bowles, once Kirk Ferentz turns them down. Don't discount the fact that Pioli is Parcells' son-in-law.

9. I like the Cardinals to beat Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl. Their ability to rush the passer is going to cause huge trouble for the Steelers, and both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will consistently win their battles with the Steelers CBs. Arizona has peaked at the right time, and is playing like a championship team.

10. I'm really ready for re-loading season to officially begin. I plan to attend the draft in New York this year, for the first time. I am wondering how much interest there would be in having an MHR group organize something for that weekend. Your feedback is requested and appreciated.

10 recs | Comment 63 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Great stuff Ted!

I’m pretty much with you on everything except for the drafting a RB in the 2nd round. I really think we are stacked at the position once everyone gets healthy. That being said, I would love one of our pick-ups to be Justin Fargas. I have been looking for his contract status and can’t find it. I know he is not a FA but everything I read tells me Oakland wants to get rid of him simply because they want to let their recent high draft picks run the ball. If someone could let me know what his status is, I would appreciate it. I keep saying and thinking I want him, but it may not even be possible.

Col. Sandurz: Prepare ship for light speed!
Dark Helmet: No, no, no, light speed is too slow!
Col. Sandurz: Light speed, too slow?!
Dark Helmet: Yes, we're gonna have to go right to . . . ludicrous speed!
Col. Sandurz: Ludicrous speed?! Sir, we've never gone that fast before. I don't know if the ship can take it.
Dark Helmet: What's the matter Colonel Sandurz? Chicken?

by orangeblood on Jan 19, 2009 5:48 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Looks like a great plan Ted. I must agree with orangeblood, however, Use that extra second on a LB and go with what we have at RB.

Thanks to Mike Shanahan, a great coach who will be dearly missed. But...
Let's all get on the Mac Daddy Express!
Hillis for starter next year. He wears special thigh pads so his solid brass balls don't give him repeated thigh contusions.

by 53guys on Jan 19, 2009 5:58 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If we go with what we have at RB...

We lose…..Period….

-TSG

SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
MileHighReport

Questions, Comments...E-Mail Me!
milehighreport@gmail.com

by John Bena on Jan 19, 2009 7:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Needs on defense > risk of staying put at RB

With the scope of rebuilding needed on defense, spending a 2 on RB is unnecessary unless there is someone rated a 1st rounder who inexplicably drops to you.

I’m more than confident in Hillis, Torain and Alridge carrying the load barring more freak RB injuries (yes, Hillis’ injury was freak).

aka MN Bronco

by pubkeeper on Jan 19, 2009 11:11 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya hillises was fresh

But torrain and aldrige have histories

by robbo650 on Jan 19, 2009 11:14 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

*freak not fresh

by robbo650 on Jan 19, 2009 11:14 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

True, but..

Torain’s was different from his college injury and looked to me to be the type of injury that comes when being forced inot action too early. What I mean is when you’ve gotten a chance to get into a groove, you remember when and how to go down when getting tackled. Torain got bent when he exposed himself trying to get that extra yard. I know this isn’t very clear, I’m not the best at explaining it, but with a full reloading season and camp to get up to speed, I believe he’ll avoid injuries like that in the future.

I wasn’t aware of Alridge’s history, what is his injury past like?

aka MN Bronco

by pubkeeper on Jan 19, 2009 11:18 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

BS.....Alridge NEVER missed a college game...

This was his first injury.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Jan 19, 2009 8:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

did he even have to go on ir??

or was it just to save his roster spot?

by RiG on Jan 19, 2009 8:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You win.

He was barely even injured; the coaches just wanted to IR him because they were afraid that he wouldn’t clear waivers and be able to be put on the practice squad. Remember when asked about his injury he laughed and shrugged and said something like, “So is it a foot injury?”

Prove to me that you exist. Do it. Anyone. Just look at my sig, think about the question, and give it a go.

by papigrande on Jan 19, 2009 8:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

There is a lot of talent in our RB pool.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Jan 19, 2009 2:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I will say it again. Hillis for starter.

by 53guys on Jan 19, 2009 5:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If we get an extra pick in a trade...

I’m all for it. We could get Chung and Shonn Green! And Raji in the first. I think that would be a ridiculously solid first 3 picks. I think we could pick up a solid linebacker in the third. I would get high-motor Spencer Larsen type players in rounds 4-7, including QB Johnson from Tulsa (He’s the next Kubiak).

Prove to me that you exist. Do it. Anyone. Just look at my sig, think about the question, and give it a go.

by papigrande on Jan 19, 2009 8:41 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm...I may be seriously tempted to go to NY for the draft this year....

5 hour drive is nothing too…

Loved the post. I’d be quite impressed if we were able to pull off all those FA acquisitions, but the mindset is spot on. I want our personnel department to be able to separate the hype from the goods. For example, I wouldn’t mind making a cheap run on Dre Moore. I still think he’s has a huge upside.

I wish Woody Paige was our coach!

by bcfunk on Jan 19, 2009 7:44 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Awesome Post!

This is what I’ve been looking for. Your offseason plan is too “busy”, in my opinion. There are just too many balls in the air for us to juggle it just right. In other words, too much would have to go just right for everything to work out as you plan, but I like the idea of it. Thanks!

by ejruiz on Jan 19, 2009 8:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting thoughts...

I see it a bit differently though…

1. I think we will eventually see a 3-4 base, but from what I’m hearing I would look for more of a hybrid defense at least next year, possibly 2010 as well. We won’t really know until we see what the Broncos do in FA though, so you may be correct. I also think Ek is a possible fit even in a 3-4. Winborn is never more than a backup. And Bly won’t be released; the cap hit would be almost as much as his contract. If we land someone in FA or the draft we may try to trade him, but releasing him is the kind of cap-suicide nonsense than Shanahan used to do. I think McDaniels is less focused on a particular system (on defense) than on putting the best players on the field in a system that works for them. We’ll see.

2. I disagree that DJ doesn’t fit in a 3-4, or that he has never made a game changing play. But beyond that, I think it’s a mistake to focus on “difference makers” in the rebuilding process. That’s MSM, fantasy football thinking. DJ is the only proven LB we have right now. WW may turn out but right now he’s a gamble. DJ is cheap ($875K) and we can’t replace him for what we would get. Now, once we’ve filled the glaring wholes in defense, if we manage to land a better prospect then that might make sense. In the meantime, let’s see what DJ can do in a better system, heck in any system since we don’t seem to have had one for the past two years.

3. I agree that the MSM has over-simplified the Patriots approach, but I also have to emphasize that trolling for high-profile FAs has just almost never worked. I don’t think the Pats are the only “model” franchise out there. Look at Pittsburg. NE’s been excellent for about 15 years, Pittsburg nearly 40. The key to both these teams, and other teams that have been successful over extended periods, has been that they focused on building a core through the draft. They have brought in FAs to fill needs, while not blowing up their cap (in hindsight I bet NE regrets the Thomas signing; he hasn’t had the impact to justify the $), but more importantly they maintain a steady stream of quality backups, depth at every position.

4. It’s not feasible – we don’t have the $70mill cap space it would take. You would be spending almost half the cap on 6FAs. Furthermore, where would that leave us in 2 years when Cutler, Marshall and Sheffler are FAs. Sure it’s an improvement but you could almost grab 6 players at random and improve the defense. The difficulty Denver faces is that roster building in the modern NFL is all about cap management, not only now, but for the future. Look at the cap space hell SD is facing. They could lose half their stars in the next two years due to cap mis-management.

5. agreed

6. Don’t think anyone can turn the Lions around as long as Ford is the owner. I don’t think ownership gets enough credit for success or blame for failure. We are fortunate to have Bowlin.

7. Word is that Cassel will be tagged so there will be NO sweepstakes.

8. I never discount what insanity Al Davis will engage in. KC we will see.

9. Pittsburg – they will surprise everyone by not blitzing. Their front 3 will shut down AZ’s run game and they will double Fitz while they wear down AZ’s defense. Offense wins games; defense wins championships!

10. I’m sure the entire off-season will be very interesting. I’m looking forward to free-agency just to try and get a glimpse at where McDaniels/Goodman are heading.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 8:55 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

The cap room it would take...

to sign the 6 free agents I named is nowhere near $70MM.

Canty could be had for 5 years, 35 million. Crowder would be about 5 years and 30 million. Atogwe & Bell would be about 5 and 25 million apiece. Assuming an even distribution over the life of the contracts (which is overly conservative, and represents a total worst-case scenario) that is 7 + 6 + 5+ 5 = 23 Million. Add in 2 million max for Davis, and 1 for Miller, and you’re at 26 million of cap room for the 6 players. And under this scenario, that 26 million number is constant over the lives of these contracts. In reality, the aggregate first year cap number is probably more like 18-20 million, with the numbers rising along with the cap.

This style and scope of spending is similar to what the Dolphins and Falcons did last year, to accomplish their turnarounds. Not a single one of the guys I mentioned is a bank breaker.

Also, DJ Williams signed a large extension last year, so even if he presently is that cheap against the cap, (which I doubt) he won’t be for long. If Matt R reads this maybe he can help here, as he is the guy who seems to know the cap the best.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 9:29 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see what else I can remember offhand

I was doing some research into all the changes in the cap rules since this is the last capped year but those notes are at home. I do remember that signing bonuses are limited to 5 year proration instead of 6 (this might be the biggest issue for top rookie contracts). Any incentives that are considered “Not Likely to be Earned” are typically counted against the cap for the next year if they are actually reached. Teams are usually able to do some fudging to push money off to the next year’s cap that way. But in 2009, if any player reaches a NLTBE incentive it immediately counts against the cap in 2009. IIRC – There is also a rule limiting how much a salary can go up yearly in the non capped years. And there are a couple rules related to guaranteed money in future season’s potentially counting against the cap in 2009.

But the most significant issue is if teams are going to plan for a 2010 season with a cap or without one. If Denver assumes that there will be no cap ever after 2009, they can probably squeeze the FA’s that Ted wants into the cap this year if Pat Bowlen is willing to shell out the money. If Bowlen thinks a cap in 2010 is inevitable, he may reign in the spending to make sure they are not in cap hell a couple years down the road.

by MattR on Jan 19, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't believe that an uncapped year will ever happen...

There are significant poison pill provisions on both sides to prevent it. It obviously can affect the way this offseason unfolds, though.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 9:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I would have agreed

But then again, I did not think it would get to this point either where the league would actually begin the final capped year.

One other thing I forgot to mention is that if 2010 is uncapped, then free agents need five seasons to be unrestricted (as opposed to the current 4) which means that gues like Scheffler, Marshall and Doom would all be restricted FA after their contracts run out at the end of 2009.

by MattR on Jan 19, 2009 10:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll go back and look...

I may have been overly pessimistic; we don’t have to sign someone if it gets too expensive. But, $23mill seems overly optimistic to me. At any rate, most of the analysis I’ve seen puts us about $50mill under the cap after cuts & FA departures. But we will need $9 to $12mill to sign our draft picks. That leaves us with ~$40mill. BUT, we need to keep a bunch reserved for when our younger players contracts come up. Jay, BMarsh, & Dummervil come up in tow years I think.

I think some of your guys make sense, but I just don’t think it’s feasible to sign all of them without creating future cap problems. It would be nice if we could though.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 10:12 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If we view the D as a two-year transition, the choices become clearer

I’m with SlowWhiteGuy on the free agents. At this point in the game, the goal isn’t to rack up the studs. You do that through the draft by grabbing Raji or Maualuga or Cushing or the best availe front-seven players in the early rounds. In free agency, you want to get some solid, decent guys who aren’t going to break the bank. Needless to say, solid-and-decent would be a big upgrade over much of the current roster.

Perpetual impatience of this type was to my mind Shanny’s greatest feeling. It’s time to kick it to the curb.

Against my better, instinct, I find myself rooting for a big free-agent pick-up this year. That’s because I want the D to be great. And that kind of turnaround just isn’t feasible with the garbage in place now. If you want the D to be awesome right away, you’re going to end up spending unwisely. But if we view it as a two-year project — one in which we take a year to see how Moss and Doom work out when you stand them up, to see what kind of player Carlton Powell’s going to be, to see if Josh Barrett gets his bearings — then the picture’s a lot clearer. Then we’re looking at solving the problems with two years’ worth of draft picks and signings, and a better read on the young guys already in place.

by Chibronx on Jan 19, 2009 9:35 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I have no belief in Carlton Powell whatsoever...

because a 5th round pick who misses his entire rookie year hasn’t earned any. He would be a bonus, in my opinion, if he works out.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 9:51 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Me either...

I’d like to hear from some of his backers. As intriguing as he may have been pre-injury, any plan in which he plays a big part is a very bad plan indeed.

by Chibronx on Jan 19, 2009 10:02 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

On the other matters....

2. It’s not MSM or fantasy football thinking to suggest that a smallish, speed-reliant LB would struggle to shed blocks sufficiently to do well as a 3-4 ILB. Tha’s football-on-video thinking. There are different skill sets involved. Ask Ray Lewis and Jonathan Vilma, who both struggled to play well inside in the 3-4

7. Cassel is being franchised so he can be subsequently traded, a la Matt Schaub. That is the sweepstakes I meant.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 9:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

who is a smallish, speed-reliant LB

DJ is almost the exact same size as James Farrior & I’ve never heard anyone suggest that Farrior is too small. Lewis doesn’t struggle in a 3-4, he just preferred the 4-3. I also don’t think Vilma’s issues have as much to do with size as they do with injuries, his and injuries on the D-line, but I’m not as familiar with NO as Pitt

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 10:24 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he talking about woodyard

by robbo650 on Jan 19, 2009 11:16 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I was talking about Williams

He is not a downhill player, and he doesn’t take on blocks well. Remember all the tackles he made 5 yards downfield as MLB? Not all tackles are created equal.

People can feel free to disagree with me, but I think he is clearly sub-optimal as a 3-4 player. A 3-4 ILB needs to be able to take on a blocker and get off that block to make a tackle in the gap. DJ is a block-misser, and a pursuer. These are very different skill sets, and he is better when there is a second DT to occupy blockers.

Now, he may have pass rush skills I don’t know about, and would therefore be able to play outside. In that case, fine, keep him. But he is no 3-4 ILB, and if I were an offensive coordinator, I’d run a FB right at him on Iso stuff repeatedly if he were trying to plug a B gap by himself.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 11:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm 50-50 on DJ inside

on the one hand the contain system didn’t do him any favors, but I saw marked improvement from him over the year. On the other hand, since we can expect to stick with this system regardless of how well the players are doing in it at any given time, I am thinking that DJ would be a starter one year and back to being a star the next, since I feel he is one of the most dedicated and talented LBs in the league.

He has significant coverage ability and just needs to REMEMBER how to finish off his rushes. I think the run-contain took a little of his downhill bite away, but he can get it back. I think he is OLB all the way.

Concision in style, precision in thought, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 19, 2009 1:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if he might need to be anywhere doing anything for more than a year?

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 19, 2009 2:35 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

2004 – Will
2005/2006 – Sam
2007 – Mike
2008 – Will

It’s surprising he has looked good at all!

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 2:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

He was actually a WLB in 2005

But he came off the field all the time in nickle and dime. This can’t be corroborated by the gameday programs either, since he is listed everywhere as being the SAM that year. But if you can watch any highlights from that year or or a gametape, you will see him playing WILL exclusively. He commented later about the reason they did that, but I don’t recall what it was. It had something to do with Gold being better in coverage and not wnating to make DJ move (which is often overlooked in people’s assessment of Gold’s character, a topic for another time). Then 2006 was the year that their was the snafu about the defensive coaches not having an effective method for getting him out on the field when he switched sides with Gold. they normally would keep the sam in, but they wanted gold in nickle. Al stayed on the field in coverage a lot, but they wanted to start phasing in DJ: it was a mess, and they all stated later that they didn’t know who was supposed to be out there when and they had messed up coverage packages way to often because of it…

Concision in style, precision in thought, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 19, 2009 3:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

good points

it’s tough to say how much of DJ’s perceived limitations have been the player and how much are the system (or lack of). I still think he is worth more to us than what we can get for him.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 2:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

And then there’s the ‘run contain’ aspect of it – a new position, and yet another systemm while this year he was moved, telling him they

really

had to and it wouldn’t happen again. He had to be upset (perhaps embarrassed) seeing The Helmet take his spot, and worse still, there is no system. Then he’s injured. Next year, a new coordinator, sure, a new position? I feel for the man. He could have been pro bowl Will if left to do that and do it well. I have to wonder at this point if his heart is in the Broncos. I hope so, but I don’t know.

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 19, 2009 3:23 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I wrote a three part article on DJ williams

before the 2008 season got underway. It describes the arc of his career and how he has suffered. The point I made at the time was that if the Denver defense didn’t acheive an identity, and quickly, than DJ’s career would amount to less than a martyr, and be the perfect symbol of our defensive failures.

I still believe that.

DJ is a microcosm of everything we have done wrong on defense. If we get him right, we will have gotten the big picture right as well.

here are the linsk to the article: Paradigm Shift: Part One: Law of Non-contradiction, Part two: the Excluded Middle, and Part Three: the Law of Identity.

I can’t seem to find part 3 however… it was done on the original scoop platform, so I hope it is in there somewhere…. I’ll post it as soon as I can locate it…

Concision in style, precision in thought, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jan 19, 2009 6:41 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Exellent writeups

I look forward to part 4. It makes me even sadder for DJ – this has all got to wear on him

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 19, 2009 9:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Two quick (well kinda) thoughts

!) Mike Lombardi has dropped down my list of trusted sources. His statements are way too certain for things that are actually speculation. The last straw was him scrubbing his site once one of his “known” facts turned out to be untrue.

2) Uncertainty with the CBA and future of the salary cap is going to have a huge impact this offseason. The way things stand right now, 2009 is the last with a salary cap and 2010 is scheduled to be uncapped. If there are no breakthroughs in negotiations (which have not even started since the NFLPA is looking for a new leader), this means a few changes for cap accounting this year. The most relevant one to this conversation is the inability to spread the cap hit for cutting a player over two years. This becomes a problem for two of the players on Ted’s hit list: Dre Bly and DJ Williams.

Based on Dre Bly’s contract, he has a $6.8 million cap figure for 2009 (about $3.65 millionof that is salary) but it would cost $9.45 against the cap to cut him. It does not look like good financial sense to cut him now. Worst case would be to keep him one more year and cut him next offseason when ther is either (a) no cap hit since there is no cap or (b) the cap hit is only $6.3 million and can be spread across two years (assuming the new CBA has the same rules as the old one)

Same thing for DJ. He was just resigned to a six year contract extension at the beginning of this past season that paid him a $9 million signing bonus. Including the remnants of his first contract, that leaves a $8.25 million cap hit if Denver releases or trades him this offseason. DJ does have a $4 million base salary this year and a $6.3 million cap hit. That is not quite as big a difference and is a bit more justifiable if you can get something back in a trade assuming you can find someone willing to pay DJ’s base salaries the next 5 years (roughly 4,3,5,5, and 6 million)

by MattR on Jan 19, 2009 9:32 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't sure the particulars of the cap accounting..

Thanks for clearing that up, Matt. I do think DJ’s base salary numbers are palatable to anybody in the years ahead, but the big cap hit may give the team some pause. I still don’t think he is a great fit at all in a 3-4.

I actually like Bly fine as a player, and would be fine with keeping him if it’s better from a cost perspective to do so. I had it in my mind that the heavy damage was backloaded in his contract, and I guess not.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Where are you getting your salary figures?

I got some numbers from a USA Today dbase but they seem to disagree with yours. As you pointed out, many times the cap economics make it cheaper to keep a player than to cut them. But it really depends on how their contract is structured.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 19, 2009 10:07 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

A whole variety of sources

USA Today is a good start, but not perfect. The NFLPA site was awesome since it listed the future base salaries of all players but they redesigned the site and that feature seems to be restricted now.

I can definitely go through and explain how I cam up with the numbers for either of those guys. Which one do you want details of? Or shoot me an email (the address is in my profile) if you prefer?

by MattR on Jan 19, 2009 10:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Great post, rec'd

Contrarian view on LBs is an interesting take and good food for thought. I didn’t realize FA safties were so deep. I’m also a big fan of Y. Bell. J. Leonhard also returns kicks for the Ravens, so he might have some additional value.

by CoastalBronco on Jan 19, 2009 9:40 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

You're sure Raji is a can't miss nose tackle?

Haha, I’m just a little bitter about the proposed DJ trade. I love the guy and I don’t wanna lose ANOTHER jersey in just a few seasons. But, if it has to be done, it has to be done. I love your two safeties though. Especially Bell (ANOTHER Bell? :-o). I think some of the guys you put out there would work real great as non-break the bank type free agent acquisitions.

by phantom818 on Jan 19, 2009 10:08 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I 100% agree oin the DJ trade

and I wonder if you might be able to snag a first rounder out of someone if you toss in one of our mid rounders. I think a decent DJ and a pick (3rd? 4th?) to the Texans for their first, who desperately need what DJ brings and already have good knowledge of his skills.

by thedoctor on Jan 19, 2009 10:13 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I can't see that happening

Though DJ is a nice player, he has never become anything more than a very good player and never the impact player that a team would covet, with his price tag I doubt any team would give more than a 3rd rounder at best.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Jan 19, 2009 10:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

My Thoughts

1.) I do not like the D.J. trade idea. He is our best and most versatile linebacker. Also he has the size to play MLB in a 3-4 at 6’1" 240. Patrick Willis 6’1 240, D’Qwell Jackson 6’0 240, James Farrior 6’2 243, Larry Foote 6’1 239, this is just to mention a couple of productive ILB in a 3-4 with the same build as DJ. DJ has all the talent to move to ILB in a 3-4 all he needs is some coaching. You are underestimating him a lot.

3.) Also you are forgetting that teams run a nickel and dime package almost half the time. This is where DJ and Woodyard fit. Both would be the LB in the nickel and either could play the 1 LB in the Dime. DJ and Woodyard are two of the top 5 players on our team and they are both keepers.

2.)There is no way you are going to get 7 new starters. What are you going to do with all the players on the current roster. You cannot release and trade everyone, you would take to big of a cap hit.

3.) Chris Canty and Bart Scott are my number one players if we switch to a 3-4. Canty is a proven and disruptive player down in Dallas. He has a high motor and makes plays. Scott is just a machine. He is always around the ball and lays out people. He had 6 solo tackles and 1 Assist in the AFC Championship game and looked like thier best LB on the field. If the coaches want to make the switch to a 3-4 right away they will need proven players that fit the scheme and those players are Canty and Scott

4.) I agree Julius Peppers is the DREAM free agent. I know that Carolina has to worry about some Jordan Gross and Peppers as UFA and they cannot franchise tag both of them. I think think it will end up a sign and trade much like the Jarad Allen situation last year. Also Peppers is a beast in a 4-3 but he is unproven in a 3-4. Now I do think he would be equally as effective in a 3-44 but it is never a sure thing. Peppers is going to demand a lot of money and with the rebuild of the defense I do not think putting most of the money on one guy is worth it.

5.) A lot of people are saying the front 7 is what needs the most attention and this is true but we need help in the secondary also. I do think they let Josh Barrett compete for the starting job and he deserves it. I think he would have looked a lot better if we would have had a decent front seven last year. Saying this I think Barrett will be one of the starting Safeties next year. From Teds list I like Yeremiah Bell the most. I agree he played very well for the Dolphins this year and if people do not think so go back and watch the game against the Broncos. My Free agent Safety I want is Dawan Landry from Baltimore who is young and he is a play maker. However I think the Ravens will resign him

My Free Agent List
1.) Chris Canty
2.) Bart Scott
3.)Dewan Landy (most likely will be retained by Baltimore)
4.) Bertrand Berry, let bring him back, an experienced, productive player in a 3-4. I have been watching him in the playoffs and he has been really impressive. Also he is in his 11th year so I think there is a good chance the Cardinals Pass on him

by gnarlybroncodude on Jan 19, 2009 11:13 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff.

Agreed on your points. Thanks for sticking up for D.J. haha

Bell’s been a great, underrated safety for the Fins the past few years. Otogwe (mentioned in the above post) is also an intreresting prospect if available, especially for creating the big play interceptions. I’m also a fan of Dawan as well AND the Ravens may probably resign him, but they don’t necessarily need to. All in all, his youth will probably keep him on board though.

by phantom818 on Jan 19, 2009 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Thinking big and outside the box is fun...

but the thought of having all new coaching, an entirely new scheme, and turning over 60-75% of our defensive personnel scares the hell out of me. Going after six or seven defensive FAs will create locker room tension and on-field confusion, both which we will have in spades during the 2009 season to begin with. Overall, I think you’re on the right track here TB, where I disagree is the quantity— adding two or three of these guys would be enough.

Face it, this defense is not going to be great the next two years and I don’t think it needs to be. The current personnel coupled with good coaching and a better scheme will bring some improvement. Add to that a couple of front-seven difference makers and a safety in FA (I agree 100% with Gnarly, Canty and Scott would be awsome, as would Bell or Landry), and a solid five to six defensive scheme-fitting draft picks (with expectations of two contributing this year), and I think we will improve enough to be competitive against a tough schedule.

My feelings on the defense only needing to be mediocre are predicated on developing a dominate offense. I believe this offense is on the way to being a dominate offense, but not there yet. McDanials will help the process, but the key is acquiring a solid, every-down running back in the draft or FA. Continuity is essential on offense as well. We must resign Cutler, Marshal, Harris, and Scheffler in 2009 and 2010, and I don’t think it’s possible if we sign six or seven defensive FAs this year.

To conclude, I believe this defense would be doable and good enough to make the playoffs in 2009 (starters in Bold):
NT- Raji (12), </strong>5th Round Draft Pick (132), Powell. This is very scary, but it is what it is. DE- <strong>Canty, Thomas</strong>, Peterson, Crowder, 4th Round Pick (110) OLB- <strong>Doom, Maybin ( #48, or move up), Moss, Woodyard, Winborn
ILB- DJ, Scott, Larsen, Haggen, Winborn
CB- Dre, Champ, J. Bell, Paymah (resigned for cheap), JMFW
SAF- Y Bell (SS), Barrett (FS), Third Round Pick (79), resign either Manual or Mcree for cheap.

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Jan 19, 2009 11:54 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know what happend there with the formatting... What I was trying to say was:

To conclude, I believe this defense would be doable and good enough to make the playoffs in 2009 (starters in Bold):
NT- Raji (12), 5th Round Draft Pick (132), Powell. This is very scary, but it is what it is.
DE- Canty, Thomas, Peterson, Crowder, 4th Round Pick (110)
OLB- Doom, Maybin ( #48, or move up), Moss, Woodyard, Winborn
ILB- DJ, B. Scott, Larsen, Haggen, Winborn
CB- Dre, Champ, J. Bell, Paymah (resigned for cheap), JMFW
SAF- Y Bell (SS), Barrett (FS), Third Round Pick (79), resign either Manual or Mcree for cheap.

"Choose the sword, and you will join me. Choose the ball and you join your mother, in death. You don’t understand my words, but you must choose. So… come boy, choose life or death."

by ButteBronco on Jan 19, 2009 11:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin will be a Top 10 pick when all is said and done

He’s very explosive off the edge

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 19, 2009 12:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I got a chance to see him play every game

and I still think he could’ve used another year in college. Remember, explosive against Big Ten teams is not the same as explosive aka shut down against USC.

by phantom818 on Jan 19, 2009 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

But don't get me wrong, Project Mayhem can still bring the heat.

I also don’t blame him for wanting the money. After looking at all the projections, he may very well go Top 10. I think we may be better served by picking up a linebacker at this point though.

by phantom818 on Jan 19, 2009 12:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Great reports on Raji from Senior Bowl...

he dominated offensive lineman, and was bigger than advertised.
Go check out Rotoworld, but they are predicting him as a Top 10 pick…we might have ot take him!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.

by boydy2669 on Jan 19, 2009 8:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

we might have to trade up...

by RiG on Jan 19, 2009 8:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

My take...

free agents
Chris Canty
maybe Channing Crowder or Andra Davis to a short deal

Draft
1. NT
2. OLB pass rusher
3. Saftey

…………………………………Canty…………1. NT…………….Marcus Thomas………….
……………………Doom/Moss………Larsen…………DJ/FA……………………2. OLB/DJ
Bailey/bell………………………………………………………………………………………………..Bly/Paymah
………………………….Barret…………………………….3./ Fox/ Mcree/FA…………………….

by RiG on Jan 19, 2009 5:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Am I missing something?

If we stand up DOOM and/or Moss, wouldn’t we want them coming from the QBs blindside? Wouldn’t that mean that they should be ROLB?

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"tough times don't last, tough people do" - Mike "The Mastermind" Shanahan

by DesertBroncoFan on Jan 20, 2009 1:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea I suppose so

i wasnt really positioning them on the field just in generic slots

i dont really know then who you want to position where….
do you wnat canty or thomas on the Strong side? same with ILBs and Safteys and cb’s

by RiG on Jan 20, 2009 9:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It wasn't just with your post

I have seen the same thing in other people’s posts as well and it didn’t make sense to me that you’d put your best pass rushers right in the QBs face.

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

"tough times don't last, tough people do" - Mike "The Mastermind" Shanahan

by DesertBroncoFan on Jan 21, 2009 10:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

We should probably ask HT on this-
there could be reasons for doing so but it could just be lack of consciousness

by RiG on Jan 21, 2009 4:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Every once in awhile

It is good to move your best pass rushers around on a limited basis. This causes the O-line to have to keep guessing and keeps them thinking instead of just reacting…doing something like this out of the blue could possibly catch the o-line sleeping and end up with a 1-on-1 against Doom.

The other way of thinking is personnel match-ups. The LT is typically the “best” OL and would be either singled on the ROLB or able to help out on a double-team. If you line up Doom on the LOLB spot, then he would be matched up against “weaker” linemen. This of course would be subject to change from opponent to opponent, but could be a big factor on why you would put Doom over there.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Jan 22, 2009 11:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs