Brad's NFL Picks - Playoffs - Round One - 2008

   Brad's Picks was 13-3 last week, right when Atlanta made it past the Rams 31-27; when Cincinnati beat the Chiefs 16-6; when the Patriots won in very windy Buffalo 13-0; when the Lions lost in Green Bay 31-21; when Houston beat the Bears 31-24; when Minnesota beat the Giants 20-19 on a last second 50 yard FG; when the Panthers beat New Orleans 33-31; when Pittsburgh beat the Browns 31-0; when Arizona beat the Seahawks 34-21; when Baltimore beat the Jaguars 27-7; when the Dolphins beat the New York Jets 24-17; when Philadelphia laid a nuclear beat down on the Cowboys 44-6; and when San Francisco won at the end over the Redskins 27-24.

   Brad's Picks was off when Indeewup beat the Titans 23-0; when the Raiders beat Tampa Bay 31-24; and when the Broncos bombed on SNF in San Diego 52-21.

    Brad's Picks was 161-94-1 on the season.

    Home teams were 12-4 last week, and were 146-109-1 on the season. That's 57% for the homers, compared to 54.7% in 2007.

     There were two coast to coast games last week, and the visiting team was 1-1 as the Raiders beat Tampa and the Redskins lost at San Francisco. On the season, visiting teams on the other coast were 14-25. The Raiders win was just the third time that a west coast team won on the east coast. That may be because it's harder to go east than west, or maybe because so many west coast teams were mediocre this year.

    George was 9-7 last week, and finished the regular season 121-132-1. If you're doing the math, remember he missed a couple games earlier this season. Anyway, George finished at 47.6% for the season, statistically reasonable for a quarter, even though George was minted in Denver (in 2000). Let's see how he does in the playoffs.

    AFC 2, NFC 0 last week. On the season, the AFC was the better conference, 34-30. I made a few errors along the way, but went back and corrected them (I had it AFC 31, NFC 26 a week ago, which was off a few). This is still off by half a game, since Philadelphia and Cincinnati tied one game, and I'm not sure what I did with that. But there were 64 inter conference games, so 34-30 is almost accurate.

    Teams coming off a MNF game were 1-1 last week, as Green Bay won and Chicago lost. On the season, teams coming off a MNF game were 20-13. If you're doing the math, there were 34 MNF games (two the first week) but Washington had a bye after it's MNF game, so I didn't count that game). I had expected that the teams off a MNF game would not do that well, with the short week and all, but I attribute the decent record to the fact that teams that play on MNF are usually top tier teams.

   at 2:30 MST:

Atlanta (11-5) at Arizona (9-7) - This game will be on NBC. The Las Vegas line - Falcons favored by two. Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan is the rookie of the year, and deservedly so. But he's only been averaging about 170 yards per game lately, with just 2 TD's to go with 4 INT's and 3 fumbles the last three games. Rookie wall? Arizona got Edgerrin James going last week against the Seahawks - 100 yards on 14 carries. And Atlanta has a porous run D - 28th in the league. If the Cards can get a run game going to help their terrific pass game, they might have some fun here. I'm going with the Cardinals and old timer Kurt Warner in the desert. George likes the Cardinals also.

Inddeeps (12-4) at San Diego (8-8) - This game will also be on NBC. The Las Vegas line - Colts favored by one. These two teams played in Week 12 at San Diego, Colts winning 23-20 on a 50 yard FG as time expired. Neither team has lost since that game. I picked the Chargers to win that one, and I'll do it again. LaDainian Tomlinson looked terrific last week against the Broncos (I know, the Broncos D is bad, but LT showed moves he hasn't shown for a couple years). Toss in speedy RB Darren Sproles, and the fact that the Colts' run D is not good (although they may get Bob Sanders back) and it looks like another close game. But the Colts' run O hasn't been great, averaging just 80 yards per game. Addai and Rhodes have been banged up, and still are. Neither team has a great D, so look for a lot of points - two very good QB's here. I'm going with LT and the Chargers. George likes the Chargers also.

Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5) - This game will be on CBS. The Las Vegas line - Ravens favored by three. In week 7, the Ravens won in Miami 27-13. Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco has been solid behind a real good run O. Ravens D is one of the very best. Dolphins have a real good D also, and Chad Pennington has been very good after his relo from New York. To beat the Ravens' D, you need a long pass O, and Pennington doesn't have a strong arm. But if he can get one off to speedy Ted Ginn, it might make the day. But the smart pick is the Ravens - not all that much has changed since week 7. George likes the Ravens.

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6) - This game will be on FOX. The Las Vegas line - Eagles favored by three. Eagles have been an up and down team this year, but mostly up lately. Vikings are going with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. RB Adrian Peterson has been fumbling too much lately, maybe because he's tired - he's had a lot of carries this year. Vikings have a good run D, but the secondary is not so good. Donovan McNabb needs to utilize rollouts and screens, to avoid the pass rush, something the Eagles are good at. Brian Westbrook is healthy for the Eagles, and as he goes, so the Eagles go. Coach Andy Reid goes up against his former assistant, Brad Childress. George likes the Vikings.