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Evaluating Talent - IPS Revisited

It's that time of year when a major concern of the coaches and of us, the fans, is judging college talent as a prelude to the draft. About nine months ago, just before last year's draft, I wrote a piece titled "Information Processing Speed". The impetus was my desire to understand why some can't-miss players, like Ryan Leaf, flame out and why some late-round nobodies, like Tom Brady, unexpectedly blossom at the next level. I suggested that a key factor was the upper limit of the speed with which a player is able to process information, to track who's where and what's happening in the pellmell chaos of a developing play and react decisively and fortuitously. What clued me in to the possible utility of such a category were the frequent remarks by players that what shocked them most when they turned pro was how fast things happen; and critiques of third or fourth-year quarterbacks who'd shown dramatic improvement that amounted to some version of, "The game has slowed down for him."

Star-divide

Naturally, familiarity with game situations and with the ways various plays develop - experience - enables any given player to see more and react faster and more effectively than he did as a rookie, but my point was that some players have a relatively low limit to how much faster they can become with experience, and how fast they are initially (so as to make the team in the first place). A lower limit negates other abilities. Leaf might have been more accurate than Brady in practice situations involving only himself and the receiver, but not in game situations in which he had to track not only the receiver but also the back covering him, perhaps another defensive back coming from the opposite direction (in a crossing route), and a linebacker cutting underneath, all the while avoiding the rush or getting rid of the ball just in time, with all this taking place in a frantic few seconds.

Wondering how to translate this idea into practice I noted that "The Sporting News ranks players in a number of categories" and that "[r]un/pass recognition strikes me as possibly relevant" to information processing speed. I then remarked "that Nick Hayden of Wisconsin, who's [ranked] 18th overall [at DT], is 3rd in that category. Would that make him a good late-round sleeper pick?" In the give and take that followed one reader, r8erh8er, offered that Hayden was one of his value picks, which led me to respond that "I think I’ll make a mental note to see how well he does just to satisfy my curiosity."

And that's the last I thought about that. Until now. With the draft just around the corner I decided to do a little googling and discovered an article titled "Panthers' Hayden learning quick". It turns out he was drafted in the sixth round by Carolina, was on the practice squad for much of the season, and then was added to the team late in the year and started a couple of games when the Panthers had injuries at DT. In his first game, against the Giants, he was schooled, but in his second game, against the Saints, he did much better. That was the "learning quick" part of the title. So far his career trajectory has been much like Barrett's, developing on the practice squad and then coming in late in the season and contributing. He's done surprisingly well for a low-round pick.

Marcus Thomas also scored high in run/pass recognition - if I recall correctly he was ranked first in that category - and he played extensively this last year. Now it might be remarked that our run defense, due in no small measure to our play at defensive tackle, was awful, and also that Carolina's run defense tailed off badly at the end of the season. But it's also true that at defensive tackle even a successful rookie is often much less productive that an ordinary veteran. If he starts at all during his first or even second year, even if not very productive by veteran standards, he's probably going to be pretty good when he gets another year or two under his belt.

It occurs to me that for a nose tackle information processing speed is especially important because it's a read and react position. He has to diagnose the play in a heartbeat and react appropriately rather than just charge into a single assigned gap. That's why Warren couldn't adapt. He was quick enough to penetrate his gap and disrupt plays, but he couldn't diagnose plays rapidly enough to decide which to focus on when he was responsible for two. When I renew my subscription to The Sporting News war room I'll be following with interest the run/pass recognition rankings of the various defensive linemen, especially the tackles. The fact that Hayden has done relatively well for a low-round pick, and that Thomas is still on track to being a pretty good lineman, isn't conclusive, but is intriguing enough to make it worth using run/pass recognition rankings as a way of looking for sleepers in this year's draft.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Great post

I think you hit the nail on the head. While it is obviously an advantage to be unbelievably gifted athletically, I think it is as important if not more important To have real football awareness. To me, that’s what you look for. Of course you want the 320 lb DT who can still run a 4.8 40. But if that’s all he can do, that won’t translate. That’s why Champ will be a HOF CB. He is UNBELIEVABLY gifted athletically but also has AMAZING football awareness. He processes what is happening and makes smart decisions at lightning speed. And then just trusts his body to be able to perform that task. That is what I think we need to be looking for in the draft. People who are not only physically gifted, but who possess that unique ability to “keep their head” in the midst of chaos (which is what a play in football is.)

On a side note, speaking of Champ’s unbelievable physical gifts, I want to tell you all the most amazing display of athletic prowess I have ever witnessed in person. While living in Tampa in 2004 I managed to land tickets to the broncos @ Tampa game. It was my first game in over 15 years and I was stoked! Nose bleed seats didn’t phase me. 107 degree heat while I sat drenched in sun didn’t phase me. Overpriced, watered down beer didnt phase me. I was STOKED. While watching the game, I saw this generally insignificant event that blew my mind. Champ was covering Joey Galloway Man-to-Man. Galloway (who was never known for blazing speed but is still a big name WR in the NFL at the time) goes in motion. He doesn’t trot closer to the O-Line. He sprints across the field, from one side to the other, at full speed. Champ trails him, staying right with him, RUNNING SIDEWAYS! It was with out a doubt the most impressive physical display I have seen in my life ( with the exception of Cirque de Solei cause those people aren’t human). Just the fluid movement of his body as his legs crossed and recrossed, arms swinging back and front, side to side, feet landing, pushing, flying back up, landing again, etc. All of that at the pace of a WR in full sprint. It was jaw dropping and I don’t think anyone else noticed it. What a stud.

Check out the website listed below...

Rivers light in the loafers?

by EastCoastBronco on Jan 28, 2009 8:20 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for that story, ECB.

Things like that don’t often get noticed but when you do, they can have a profound impact on an emtional level. They leave an impression on you; fill you with a sense of awe.

I had an experience like that too. It didn’t concern speed, but rather size. I’m going to date myself here but, oh well. This was back when the Broncos held their Spring training in Fort Collins (before Greely even). I remember going down to the training field just to get a closer look. I’m amazed to think at how relaxed security was back then, but I remember standing by the path the players used to walk from the practice fields to the dressing room. If I recall correctly fans made a corridor less than five yards wide. I don’t think the Broncos even used ropes to seperate the fans and the players, just an occassional, polite suggestion from what appeared to be assistants to “Please, step back.” Anyway, I recall several offensive linemen strolling by, waving and talking to the crowd.

Now, I’m not tall by anyone’s definition, but I’m also not so short that I call attention to myself. But I do remember looking at these human mountains as they walked by and I swear, their belly buttons were at my eye level. I was in awe. Any ridiculous fantasy I may have ever nutured about becoming a pro football player died quietly under that Colorado afternoon sun.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Jan 29, 2009 1:06 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Trainig camp in Fort Collins

I was there one day, with some binoculars. Scanning the players, I focused on Randy Gradishar, who was forty or so yards away and facing in my direction. He looked up and right into my binocs, and the look he gave me was enough for me to say, “Yes Sir, I’ll stop this right now.” Wow!

Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. When the fear has gone past, I will turn to see fear’s path. Where the fear has gone, there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

Bene Gesserit saying. (From Dune, by Frank Herbert)

by bradley on Jan 30, 2009 1:06 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Fascinating, Spock...

The first question popping into my head is this…

How predictive has this run/pass recognition ranking been in the past, aside from Hayden? Obviously it’s quite subjective to say who’s been successful and who hasn’t, but I’d be curious to see it.

by Douglas A. Lee on Jan 28, 2009 9:02 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

"How predictive has this run/pass recognition ranking been in the past. . .?"
“. . . I’d be curious to see it.”

So would I. Not long after I wrote the piece I looked for rankings for 2007, 2006, etc. but was unable to find any. Don’t know if archives aren’t kept or if my search skills were deficient (or how long the category has been used). Perhaps I’ll try again after I’ve re-upped. It made sense that r/p recognition might roughly coincide with information processing speed, and that the relative success of someone like Hayden, who ranked high in it but much lower overall, might be telling, but any conclusion based on Hayden and (to a lesser extent) Thomas is necessarily tentative. About all I can say is the idea seems to make sense and the experience of Hayden and Thomas is at least consistent with it. That’s a long way from certainty, which is why I limited myself to saying it was intriguing enough to use as a way of looking for sleepers. If I can’t find an archive I’ll make a list of defensive linemen who rank relatively high in r/p recognition and relatively low overall this year and check after the season to see if as a group they seem to have exceeded expectations. “Expectations” and “exceed” will of course have to defined in advance. If overall ranking ends up corresponding roughly to draft position, and if they tend to be more successful by some objective criteria (making the team, getting playing minutes, etc.) than others similarly ranked and/or drafted, that would be revealing.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 28, 2009 10:35 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

The next question being...

Who comes up with these rankings, how many different sets of eyes are evaluating, and what is their criteria? Obviously we’re talking about quite the subjective topic here…

by Douglas A. Lee on Jan 28, 2009 10:41 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

The origin of the rankings

All I can go by is what The Sporting News says in their blurb:

Our War Room scouts have worked at every level of college and pro football, from on-field coaching to NFL front-office management. We’re talking over 160 years of college and pro experience!

It sounds like more than a couple of guys. I think they’re probably pretty good but no system of subjective rankings is going to be perfect. At a gross level they’re probably pretty reliable. If player A is ranked fifth in some defined attribute and player B is ranked sixth B might actually be slightly better or A might actually be three or four spots better. I doubt that any person or group could accurately rank the players in exact order in any attribute, no matter how precisely defined. But if A is ranked third and B eighteenth in that attribute I’d say A is almost certainly quite a bit superior to B. More to the point, if players ranked high in r/p recognition but low overall showed a clear pattern of exceeding expectations, any imprecision in the original ranking wouldn’t lead to a false correlation. Inaccurate rankings would blur whatever correlation actually exists. If a correlation is found but the rankings didn’t accurately reflect player order, that correlation would have shown up despite the inaccuracy, not because of it. Hence if a correlation is found chances are it’s real.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 28, 2009 11:12 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Understood...

and agreed. Well, Spock…I cannot wait to see the past results! Thanks for posting and explaining!

by Douglas A. Lee on Jan 28, 2009 11:55 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Very nice and informative, rec'd

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman

by Broncoman on Jan 28, 2009 9:30 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks!

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 28, 2009 10:36 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Very Informative and timely post spock, thanks

With the cost of an early round bust, I am pretty sure all 32 teamd look at their own version of IPS. It seems to me that you have done an outstanding job of defining the characteristics marking likelihood of success in the NFL. I really hope we get some Haydenesque players in the last two rounds. Great write up spock.

It all starts in the trenches HT 11/11/08

by firstfan on Jan 28, 2009 12:49 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

When scouts say a prospect has "good instincts"

it seems to me that what I’ve termed information processing speed is a large part of what they mean.
What makes run/pass recognition so intriguing is it rates prospects in how good they are, relative to
one another, in a category that’s roughly equivalent to a major component of “instinct” or “football speed”.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 28, 2009 8:35 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Our DTs played pretty well this year, is what the numbers don't say

Both Thomas and Robertson were pretty stout and solid all season. The problems were in the C gaps with the DEs, and big plays on cutbacks when the Helmet overran the play.

"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy

by Ted Bartlett on Jan 28, 2009 6:07 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't say they were solid or stout...

you can say they weren’t awful. According to Football Outsiders opposing teams ran up the middle on us 48% of the time. I guessing opposing OC’s didn’t just do that at random. On runs between the guards we ranked 24th in defense. The only good news is that we were 10th in run defense on 3rd and short.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jan 28, 2009 6:52 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

An article I read in TP or RMN

stated that Robertson didn’t play well as a one-gapper until late in the season. I guess if you’ve been playing two-gap it takes awhile to get comfortable with one-gap even if you prefer it and have played it before. I would still argue that Thomas played relatively well but not as well as an experienced DT, and while this means our play at that position was nothing special in 2008 it bodes well for the future. If we’d had a veteran (like Warren) at the position he’d have given us better play until Thomas developed to the point of being able to take the job away from him. Make that two veterans. In a better-stocked team Robertson (until he got up to speed with one-gap) and Thomas (until he got up to speed as a pro) would have been the reserves, not the starters. A factor in our dismal performance is that the guys relieving them must have been truly awful. The cupboard was simply bare of capable, experienced one-gap tackles. Mistakes made in previous years (letting Warren and Myers go) came back to haunt us.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 28, 2009 8:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty neat stuff Spock...

Thank you

"I am not trying to start anything I am just saying that i think if you take Knowshon and draft D later you guys will be hella good next year" ...IamtheGreatest - The smartest Chiefs fan I ever had the priviledge of reading!

by Steve O' on Jan 28, 2009 8:50 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Great info

Thanks, spock

In Goodman We Trust

by Emmett Smith on Jan 29, 2009 12:10 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

A great read as always. And definately Rec.

I’ll be excited to look info processing speed in the guys we are trying to pick up this year. Do they rank order any where which postions are more important than others. i.e. is it better for your CBs to have a higher rating or your Ss, MLBs, OLBs? Or is just used to determine who is best suited w/ in a PSN?

by ThorpeBroncosfan on Jan 29, 2009 8:36 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

The players are ranked against each other at each position

and the categories by which they’re ranked vary by position. For DT and DE the categories are Initial quickness, Pass rush, Pursuit/tackling, Run/pass recognition, and Versus the run. For both ILB and OLB the categories are Blitz/coverage, Pursuit/tackling, Run/pass recognition, Vs. inside run, and Vs. outside run. For CB the categories are Ball skills, Closing speed, Coverage skills, Run support, and Run/pass recognition. Ditto for S. For each position the overall ranking is simply the order the players are listed on the page. Notice that Run/pass recognition is one of the categories for each of the defensive positions. It seems to me to be the one that corresponds most closely to read and react and thus to information processing speed.

Naturally, Run/pass recognition is not a category for any offensive position. Not that it’s going to be relevant to us for awhile, but the categories for QB are Accuracy/delivery, Arm strength, Field vision, Pocket awareness, and Running ability. For RB it’s Blocking, Durability, Hands/routes, Inside running, Outside running. The same categories are used for FB. For WR and also TE it’s Blocking, Hands, Patterns, Release, and Run after catch. Finally, for each of the listed offensive line positions, C, G, and OT, the categories are Initial quickness, Mobility, Pass blocking, Run blocking, and Strength. None of the offensive positions, with the possible exception of Field vision for QB, has a category that jumps out at me as possibly relevant to information processing speed, but we probably won’t be drafting many offensive players anyway.

Having just re-subscribed to The Sporting News Pro Football War Room, I see that none of the individual category rankings are up yet, just the overall ranking of each player at that position. At RB, for instance, the top 5 are Chris Wells, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Donald Brown, and Shonn Greene. At DT, which is what we’re especially interested in, the top 5 are B.J. Raji, Fili Moala, Peria Jerry, Jeff Owens, and Ricky Jean-Francois. The only players currently listed at over 320 lbs. are Raji, 1st, 334, Terrence Cody, 9th, 365, Antonio Dixon, 22nd, 326, Sammie Hill, 31st, 331, Terrance Knighton, 34th, 324, Ron Brace (also BC!), 38th, 329, and Jesse Bowman, 50th, 321. Peria Jerry is listed at only 290. Hopefully the individual write-ups, once they start appearing, will indicate whether some of the sub-320 might be able to add weight without adverse effects. The 40-yard dash times are listed but the other measurables, including the Wonderlic, presumably won’t go up until after the Combine.

That’s it. I don’t know how long it’ll be before within-category rankings start showing up. I also haven’t looked for an archive yet. It’d be great if there was one, because then we could do an analysis without having to wait for the end of the 2009 season. I’ll let you know when I have more.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 29, 2009 4:48 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Man! I almost forgot about IPS...that was a magnificent post!

Anyone who wasn’t here 9 months ago needs to click on that link and read about it.

spock, would you consider putting together a draft board based solely on IPS? A top 25 or something of players who you consider to be in the upper echelon of IPS? Or something….I think this could also give you a good benchmark to review and adjust your estimations of IPS for various players in the years going forward as well.

Good stuff…and great read. Thanks man!

This is my GAP, there are many like it but this one is mine. Without my GAP I am useless, without me, they will run through my GAP. I will protect my GAP and have my brothers back on his. I will not be moved from my GAP, I am a crazed dog that patrols this area and will defeat all who entire it. I own this GAP, it is mine. I bought it with blood and sweat. I will not be pushed. I will not be moved. This Sunday I will make a stand and a statement.

by Tim Lynch on Jan 29, 2009 2:19 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

As you can see from my response to ThorpeBroncosfan

the offensive categories don’t lend themselves to an IPS ranking, and even though all of the defensive positions include Run/pass recognition, which perhaps does, the players are ranked against each other in each category and overall only within each position type. We could list the top 5 in that category for DT, DE, ILB, OLB, CB, and S, for a total of 30 players, and we might even work out, amongst ourselves, a rough order among those 30, but there’d be plenty of room for disagreement. Might be fun, though.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 29, 2009 4:59 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed!

We would have a lot of fun disagreeing with one another!

It all starts in the trenches HT 11/11/08

by firstfan on Jan 30, 2009 11:52 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh!

Spoken in the true spirit of MHR.

"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen

by spock on Jan 30, 2009 1:57 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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