Jay Cutler had more asked of him than any other second year starting QB in NFL history.
by rururuland784 on Jan 7, 2009 1:33 AM MST
21 comments
600 pass attempts in a season is a very signficant statistic. It has only been done 22 times in NFL history.
It signifies one-dimensionality and I postulate leads to a higher ratio of interceptions and a lower ratio of touchdowns as defenses are more prepared to defend the pass.
I also hypothesize that it signifies poor defense and deficit situations which also helps pass defenses and hurts the passers' effectiveness.
Here is a cursory look.
*Key career=career interception
% Offense=percent of pass plays of all plays called
Defense=Rank in points then in yards allowed
Year Player Interceptions Int %(career) Td % (career) % Offense Defense
2005 Favre 29 4.8 (above) 3.3(below) 62 19/7
2006 Favre 18 2.9 (below) 2.9(below) 60 25/12
1991 Moon 21 3.2 (below) 3.5(below) 68 6/9
1994 Moon 19 3.2 (below) 3.0(below) 63 13/5
1995 Moon 14 2.3 (below) 5.4(above) 61 27/20
2002 Brady 14 2.3 (below) 4.7(below) 57 17/26
1994 Bledsoe 27 3.9 (above) 3.6(below) 60 12/18
1995 Bledsoe 16 2.5 (below) 2.0(below) 60 25/28
1996 Bledsoe 15 2.4 (below) 4.3(above) 61 14/19
2002 Bledsoe 15 2.5 (below) 3.9(above) 64 27/15
1986 Marino 23 3.7 (above) 7.1(above) 65 26/26
1988 Marino 23 3.8 (above) 4.6(below) 65 24/26
1994 Marino 17 2.8 (below) 4.9(below) 60 17/19
2007 Brees 18 2.8 (above) 4.3(below) 63 25/26
2008 Brees 17 2.7(above) 5.4(above) 62 26/23
2002 Gannon 10 1.6(below) 4.2(below) 61 6/11
1981 Fouts 17 2.8(below) 5.4(above) 57 26/27
2005 Cutler 18 2.9(below) 4.1(below) 62 30/29
Results
-QB's at the 600 attempt platueau threw less interceptions than on average(73%)
-QB's threw lower % of touchdowns than their career averages (73%)
-Pass Attempts accounted for more than 60% of the offense in all but 2 cases
-Defenses were ranked above 20th in points 41% and in the top ten only twice
-Defenses were ranked above 20th in yards in 38% of the time and were in the top ten only three times
Conclusions
-Jay Cutler had the worst defense of any 600+ attempt passer
-Cutler was only the third second year starter to throw more than 600 attempts, the others were Bledsoe and Brady
-Jay Cutler led all 600 pass attempters in rushing yardage
Jay Cutler had more asked of him than any other second year starting QB in NFL history. He had a higher percentage of drop-backs to offensive plays than any one else with his level of experience.
Consider the pressure put on him by a deficient special teams, one of the worst defenses in NFL history and no reliable running back. All of those things are factors in his decision making and aggressiveness throwing to not only score points but to keep his offense on the field. Cutler was not asked to be a game-manager this year and was given the freedom to take risks. Clearly, not being able to move the ball was riskier than throwing balls one may consider small windowed.
It's why I think when you contextualize Cutler's season you understand he had an unbelievable even historic campaign.
Sometimes your perceptions get clouded becuase of how the media treats players via what they say, their persona, the age of sound bite. People relate him to Favre and it sort of brings a negative connotation. They see his int. totall "OMG he is interception prone." You'll notice that other volume passers do not get this perception, though many of them share a similiar int% and some even have a higher int%. Remember, Cutler is bieng asked to consistently make small window throws, so there may be a misperception that he mistakingly throws into coverage.
When Cutler throws into coverage, it's not the same as when others throw into coverage becuase of the velocity and accuracy Cutler has in the intermediate throwing zones.
Does Cutler need to get better? Absolutely
Does Cutler make mistakes? Of Course
But for his experience Jay Cutler had one of the most impressive seasons in NFL history. And let's all remember we are grading him on an extremely high scale. For as good as Jay's mental and physical tools are, he is exceeding expectations for his experience even on the scale he's on. That's saying a ton.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Wow, great statistical analysis! Rec'd!
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
by Arctic Bronco on Jan 7, 2009 3:29 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Very impressive.
Like I have said before, I think Jay did quite well with what he was dealt with and we were 8-5 at one point (even though we coughed it up). Give Cutler a solid running game and at least an average defense and he will be awesome.
"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan
Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 9
by weazel on Jan 7, 2009 1:00 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
So much insight, so little space!
Thanks rrrl. This is the kind of post that would do very well to get some more national attention.
Very impressive work.
Rec’d of course
Darren Bennett... check
Ben Graham... check
Sav Rocca... check
Now if only we can find an Australian who can run and tackle in the NFL and show these Yanks what we're made of.
by orange&blue_aussie on Jan 7, 2009 4:35 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post my man and rec'd!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
by boydy2669 on Jan 7, 2009 6:59 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
This is great stuff
And I’m happy that my Rec put you over the top with it. This is quality analysis, and your thinking is right on the money.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Jan 7, 2009 8:30 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Nice Job -- It's Important to Recognize the Long Odds Jay Faced
Football is nowhere near as stats-friendly as baseball (which is built around a series of one-on-one matchups that allow you to control for every possible thing you want). That said, you might want to try controlling for QB age (you’re looking at old Favre, young Bledsoe, etc., etc). The other thing I’d be curious about would be to look at drive-by-drive outcomes based on the score going into the drive. The defensive ranks don’t tell you if the D’s were getting blown up early or late in the game. Some guys with lousy D’s could be playing with a lead for a good portion of the game — and that will make a big difference in play-calling.
I would also wonder what the other predictors of interceptions are. I’m a novice to football stats — has anyone read up on Football Prospectus enough to say a few words about this?
One thing that leaps out at me is: poor Houston fans. The January 1992 game in which the Broncs beat them is probably my favorite Elway comeback ever. But looking at the stats here, if Jerry Glanville would have been less pass-wacky behind that awesome D, the Oilers would not have played a single road playoff game.
by Chibronx on Jan 7, 2009 8:56 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Let's face it
Throwing passes is what a quarterback most visibly does, and young ones like to earn their spurs by throwin it. Many young quarterbacks would, if given their druthers, throw on almost every down. I’m not sure that that isn’t true of Cutler. Cutler did have the worst defense of any of the other QB seasons listed above, but several were close. The other team’s points is what a QB has to beat to win a game, so I listed the QB seasons in which the defense’s scoring rank was 25th or worse. That left Favre in 2006, Moon in 1995, Bledsoe in 1995 and 2002, Marino in 1986 and 1988, Brees in 2007 and 2008, Fouts in 1981, and Cutler in 2008. The average points scored in those seasons was 382.5, so Cutler’s 370 was slightly below average. The 448 points the Broncos gave up not only exceeded the average of 422.9 but was the largest season total, so Cutler did have more to overcome. Based on point differential alone our season record should have been 6.2-9.8. That is, 6-10, so 8-8 was actually a pretty good accomplishment. We won most of our close games.
The average TD/INT ratio for those ten campaigns was 28.0-17.9. However, for the four whose points scored exceeded the average, at 412 (Moon 95), 430 (Marino 86), 463 (Brees 08), and 478 (Fouts 81), the ratios were, respectively, 33-14, 44-23, 34-17, and 33-17, for an average of about 36-18. The average for the rest was about 23-18. Cutler’s ratio was 25-18, and I think this was the biggest factor in keeping our scoring below what it should have been.
Unbelievable even historic? That’s a bit over the top, but Cutler did play well under trying circumstances, albeit he had a brilliant line and set of receivers going for him. But the 448 points the defense gave up was a big hill to climb, and lacking a power running game for most of the season made it steeper. “When Cutler throws into coverage it’s not the same . . .” I assume you mean that some guys who are “covered” for other QBs are “open” for Cutler because of his accuracy and velocity. Agreed, but whatever a guy’s margin for error is, his TD to INT ratio tells you how hard he pushes it, and Cutler’s 25-18 ratio, decent but not great, tells me he pushes it just a little bit too hard. But the lack of a power running game might have made him (and his coaches?) feel, perhaps legitimately, that he had to take more chances than he (and they) would have liked. I don’t want him to be too much of a gunslinger, and I hope the new coach feels the same way, but until we have a consistent power running game I’ll withhold judgment on whether he’s too trigger-happy.
One interesting finding you noted, that QBs with more than 600 attempts have had a below average percentage (per pass) of interceptions and TDs, makes sense if you allow that for those teams the passing attack was to an extent a substitute for the missing ground game. Therefore they probably featured lots of short passes and a ball control orientation, which would have minimized both home-run balls and turnovers.
Overall I think Cutler had a very good season for a third-year player, with some disquieting tendencies that might have been due partly to situational factors (no running game, no defense) and partly to relative lack of experience. I hope he continues to make strides next year, has a decent defense and running game, and ends up with a TD to INT ratio of at least two to one. We’ve all seen Cutler the brilliant thrower, but he still has an overall losing record. I’m waiting for Cutler the winner. Hopefully, our new coach will preside over the first of a string of winning seasons.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on Jan 7, 2009 11:11 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
Good Reply
And thanks to the rest as well. I think I found exactly what you stated in the second to last paragraph.
I suppose it is a legitimate question. Will the 2.9% int translate when we have a more reliable running game and a better defense? And is a 2.9 int % acceptable if you are to be deemed a winner?. I think you would find different answers to both of those questions. But I think given the opp. in a more balanced offense with less pressure to score and perhaps even short field opps created by the defense and ST., that not only would Cutler’s tendency to throw into coverage decline but his explosive passing plays would also be on the rise.
I do not know of anyone who charts it yet, but I watch almost every NFL game each week and I can’t say there was a team that threw more than the Broncos did that had less frequency of open receivers. I tend to think that Jay Cutler has made Marshall a ton of money he wouldn’t make anywhere else. The guy just doesn’t get separation down the field and as the season grew longer he received less and less respect from defensive backs.
I mean, a team like the Raiders dared us to beat them over the top in that “man-free” coverage and our receivers were pretty much dominated in that game. I fear that will become a blueprint if we don’t start using more deception.
Perhaps my assumptions are wrong and Cutler’s " gunslinger" tendencies are not somewhat muted by the other factors being more favorable. I have a feeling though that Cutler does what is necessary to win, which is why I felt he had an amazing year and that the question of if Cutler can be a winner is already answered in my book.
by rururuland784 on Jan 7, 2009 5:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
In games where we had a running game.
Cutler showed that he can make smart decisions and move the team downfield. I mean just look at the games against the Bucs and Jets (except for that Red Zone pick). He took what was given. I just want a defense Jay can trust. The one thing Jay needs to work on for next year is the Red Zone interceptions, that has got to stop.
Don’t forget all the drops the WRs had this year. That didn’t help him either. Marshall has benefited from Jay and next year he will also benefit from Royal. You just know defenses will keeping someone on him.
"It doesn't dissipate" ~ Mike Shanahan
Cutler's 4th qtr/OT game winning drives: 9
by weazel on Jan 7, 2009 6:51 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting point
about the not-open receivers. I think I resisted seeing it because the Broncos have such a great passing game our receivers must get open, right? But also, when I’ve seen Cutler throw to a triple-covered Marshall, I’ve thought that surely somebody somewhere must be open. If Cutler can develop to the point where he can always find (in time!) the one guy who’s open, he’ll be unstoppable. In the meantime, he might look to Royal more often as his primary receiver. He gets ridiculously open at least once a game, and probably gets decent separation on a regular basis. B-Marsh is a big target who can fight for the ball, but he could take route-running lessons from Vet. If he sharpened his cuts he’d be open more. Otherwise he might become the de facto second receiver.
I agree that Cutler is more focused on winning than anything else, and that tells me he’ll change his game if it means the team doing better. I don’t know if that’ll be necessary or to what extent. A sound running game would help. Beyond that, I think he needs to go through his progressions faster and sometimes throw the ball away in lieu of a makable but dangerous throw. I think he’ll get better at both. But no one is considered an elite quarterback unless his teams score points and win games. It’s not fair but it’s the way he’ll be judged. I think it’ll happen next year (i.e. 2009), and keep on happening. A lot depends on how well Bowlen and his brain trust choose. I’m just going to trust what others have said, that he’s one of the best owners in sports. He picked a really good coach once before. Maybe he can do it again.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
by spock on Jan 7, 2009 6:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
What a brilliant conversation...
and where else than on the internet can we all play the audience? Thanks Guru and the MHR Community! This stuff is classic! That is some absolutely fascinating analysis.
I’ll just throw in that when we see the return of a viable running game, there will once again be effective play-action. This will make all the difference in the world for Cutler and his receivers. The Broncos do not need better athletes at WR. They simply need the defense to believe that Denver might run the ball, and well at that. Once the Broncos’ rushing attack is again feared, play-action and wide-open receivers will surely follow. Look at Eddie Royal’s YPC, and I believe the lack of surprise in our offense explains his low numbers. Someday, Eddie should be averaging 12 or 13 yards/catch rather than the pedestrian 10.8 he did in 2008. Eddie is extremely quick and has all the skills to get open. But as you guys mentioned, the receivers were not open. Why? Our opponents knew we were chucking every time.
Think back over the years and remember all those wide-open passes on the play-action boot? Seemed to happen at least 2 or 3 times every game under Shanny. Well, the reason we haven’t seen that much lately is you can’t run play-action when you can’t run the ball, right?
by Douglas A. Lee on Jan 8, 2009 2:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff.
This is my GAP, there are many like it but this one is mine. Without my GAP I am useless, without me, they will run through my GAP. I will protect my GAP and have my brothers back on his. I will not be moved from my GAP, I am a crazed dog that patrols this area and will defeat all who entire it. I own this GAP, it is mine. I bought it with blood and sweat. I will not be pushed. I will not be moved. This Sunday I will make a stand and a statement.
by Tim Lynch on Jan 7, 2009 1:20 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Great Post, Thanks
It all starts in the trenches HT 11/11/08
by firstfan on Jan 7, 2009 6:59 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Great stats!!
"(Royal) caught 9 balls for 146 yards and had DeAngelo Hall wishing he was inside with Michael Vick" - MJD Yahoo Sports Blog
by donbok1 on Jan 8, 2009 3:06 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Superb post.
Wow. I love the analysis and the discourse here.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
by HarvJNep2n on Jan 8, 2009 9:21 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
remember the early games?
wow…some great points…i got to thinking about the games with san diego and new orleans…our defense had the best seats in the house…watching rivers and brees and the running backs doing whatever they wanted…i bet the defense didnt want to be anywhere near jay and the offense…and jay just went back out there and was totally awesome…and we all thought we would run the table because our offense could score on everyone and it didnt matter what the defense did…and…if jay had had more running backs…it might have turned out that way
omg…i bet jay would give up part of his salary to get good defensive players and a defense coordinator
go jay…you are awesome
by JaysGirl on Jan 9, 2009 10:28 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
I wish I was Jay Cutler...
Wait , what? I agree that he needs some help. We need to keep our running backs healthy (or just get some healthy running backs) if we want to see Jay have success. And some defensive talent and coaching would help too.
"WTF" By Zappa. 1/5/09
I can deal with bears....sharks on the other hand.......of course, I am not talking about if I were menstrual(I’m a guy so that isn’t it), but yeah. I can deal with bears if my arm or something was bleedin’, but sharks? I’ll pass on those. The worst feeling in the world is to be out in the surf and feel something very large brush up against your leg as you were alone waiting for your next wave. I don’t think I’ve gone out past waist deep in the ocean since. lol It was probably just a damn dolphin or something, but yeah. Screw sharks and the evolutionary train they rode in on!
by papigrande on Jan 10, 2009 10:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Post.
wow that fascinating. i had not thought of it that way. good job. recommended.
"Hey Raiders fans!!! If you leave now you can beat traffic!"
-Rod Smith
by GarretBarnes on Jan 9, 2009 9:50 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
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