Week 4 Picks & Predictions against the spread, straight up & over under

Ok. so I got my scouting done a day early and decided to make a post out of it.  Next week I'll take a look at it and see how well I did for the games and for against my Confidence Rating, which is a 1-4 scale [higher better] for how much I like a matchup, with 5 being sure locks.

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without further ado...

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Oaklands Raiders +9.5 @ Houston Texans :

Here I'm going to take the raiders with the points but have the Texans to win straight up.  I'm expecting a few long runs, pass completion to help bring the score up and get over 42.  Overall I don't like the odds for this game that much and wouldn't bet too much on it.  Confidence Rating: 2, 2, 1

New York Giants -9 @ Kansas City Chiefs:

The giants are a much better football team all around.  Much more efficient and much less prone to turnovers.  Looking at the 3rd down conversion percentage the delta between these 2 teams is 31!(favoring Giants). My picksGiants win -9 and of course the moneyline  and for over under I expect good defensive play from the giants and an early lead to eat  this game away and keep it under 42.  Confidence Rating: 3, 5, 2.5

Tennessee Titans -3 @  Jacksonville Jaguars:

I'd say these two teams are somewhat similar but the titans are much better.  Expect a hard hitting physical contest, low scoring.  Possibly we could have another upset here, I could see a game changing turnover baffling the titans but I'm not goig to bet on that to happen.  I expect Tennessee to finally get a win here, cause now they really need and I expect their play to show it.  Titans -3 and moneyline.  And for the total to go under 41.5, I expect a final game score close to 22-13.  Confidence Rating: 4, 4, 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 @ Washington Redskins:

Plus seven looks to be a good spread for this game.  But I think Washington gets a break here.  Tampa has shown holes in their run support and have trouble generating a pass rush.  The redskins will look to establish and maintain healthy run game for Portis.  I think this one will depend upon who can get going early and not make costly turnovers.  Picks are Tampa +7 but Redskins to win moneyline and the game to go over 37.  Confidence Rating: 3, 2.5, .2

Baltimore Ravens +2 @ New England Patriots:

This should be a good game.  The Ravens should do an good job providing crisp coverage and ample pressure on Brady.  Good things happen when you get pressure on Brady and I expect to see the Ravens to snatch an interception at some point.  I like the Ravens here with the points and moneyline.  As for the over under expect the winning team to have to put up 25+ points, but both  teams are very competitive so i don't anticipate a wide margin of defeat so over 44.5. Confidence Rating: 3, 3, 3

Cincinnati Bengals -6 @ Cleveland Browns:

I think the Bengals are really a lot better than those odds I'd put more like at 9 or so.  They'll easyly cover a touchdown.  Picks Bengals -6 and moneyline.  The final score I expect to see the Browns around 0-10 and Bengals 20-30 so I'll go ahead and take the under here as I don't think this one is ever close.  Confidence Rating: 5, 5, 4

Detriot Lions +10 @ Chicago Bears:

Plus Ten is a pretty wide margin and I know from experience Cutler doesn't like to win or make anything easy.  All the Bears wins and loses have come at the end of games.  I think Cutler will get cocky and throw a pair of picks.  So take Detriot +10 but Chicago moneyline. and over 39.  Confidence Rating: 2, 4, 2

Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins:

This game plays right into the strengths of the Bills.  Miami doesn't have a real pass attack and will hav e to get by with mostly wildcat running.  This game will have a fast clock because of all the running so my picks are Bills -2.5 and moneyline and under 37.  Confidence Rating: 3.5, 3.5, 3.5

N.Y. Jets +7 @ New Orleans Saints:

This should be another good game this weekend.  I like the match up better for the Jets here.  I think Sanchez is poised for another big day and is schooled on holding onto the ball.  I'm going to take the Jets here + 7 and to win moneyline.  And for the game to go over 45.  Confidence Rating: 2.5, 1.5, 3

St. Louis Rams +10 @ San Fransisco 49ers:

This is a tough game to pick.  I don't think they'll be a lot of points in this one and a short clock.  Im going to have to give the Rams my pick +10 but San Fran the win.  And I'll take under 37.5.  Confidence Rating: 2.5, 4, 2

Dallas Cowboys -3 @ Denver Broncos:

Alright I'm biased here.  But I like the Broncos matching up against  Cowboys Run offense, If they can shut or slow it down they should be able to win if they can put enough points up.  I can't wait for this game I think it will be very good and revealing.  The game is pretty much nationally televised(except Ncali and Missouri)  So I gotta take Broncos +3and for the win.  The total should be close but I think it will slide over 42.5.  Confidence Rating: 2.5, 2, 2.5

San Diego Charger +7 @ Pittsburg Steelers:

I expect a fairly low scoring game teens to twenties.  I think +7 for the chargers is to big to pass on so take them but I have Pittsburgh to win by a field goal late.  And I'll take under 43.  Confidence Rating: 3, 2, 2.5

Green Bay Packers +3.5 @ Minnesota Vikings:

This is a tough one.  I've gone back and forth.  I don't think either team will sweep the other but I'm gonna predict each team wins in each others house.  So I'm going to take the underdog here, thinking they'll be a key turnover or key missed 3rd down on the Vikings part.  So Packers +3.5 and moneyline.  And I'll take over 45.  Confidence Rating: 2, 2, 2.5

Go Broncos!! and tell me what you think, agree -disagree?