The War on Attrition

by Jon Tollerud on Oct 10, 2009 6:08 PM MDT Comment 7 comments

One of the many things that excite me about football is the intense play week in and week out. One of the down sides to the intensity however, is injuries. Last season the Broncos like many teams were hit with a slew of injuries. This year we are having a few here and there but they are small and limited in their time span with the lone exception being Spencer Larsen (FB/LB). This is called the Not For Long league for a reason. The question has become, not if your favorite football team is far superior to other football teams but rather, "Is my team deep enough to win the war of attrition?" Just like the war on terrorism it is a constant battle. Each team has to be vigilant at practice (Homeland Security), during games (Operation Enduring Freedom), and many other areas (note to those who read this, I am not politicizing this just noticing a similarity). So how do the Broncos stack up? Can we win a skirmish with attrition for 2009? Can we make it 16 games? Let's find out:

To do this at a fair rate we have to set a scale we can use for every team. A player is rated 1-10 with a minimum of 6 for starter and max of 7 for depth. You can take this formula to any team and use it (I may do it later for each team we play, but who knows). Then you take the total score and divide by total possible to come up with the chance of being better than the opponent. This means that having 30 RB's doesn't mean you are deeper if you have one 8 and twenty-nine 2's (62%) and the other team has one 9 a 7 and 5 (86%). The system is slightly flawed in that it is my opinion of the players value and I may have to use an unbiased system to help that (suggestions always welcome). Anyway on to the ranks:

Quarterback:

Total 53%- This looks bad, but to be honest, its accurate. Kyle looks good but he does need to be tested on the deep ball to get an more accurate picture. If he were to get injured how many of you would feel comfortable with one of the other two taking over this year? I am not sold at this time we could win many games with Simms or Brandstater as our starter. Just an opinion.

Running Back:

Correll Buckhalter (8)
Knowshon Moreno (7)
Peyton Hillis (6)
Lamont Jordan (5)

Total 65%- I think I may be personally under-rating our RB corps but based on what I have seen this is it. Buck and KnoMo look good in splitting but who does KnoMo split with if buck goes down? Hillis while an beast of a man has had problems early on. I know there are theories to it but until I see it on the field that's what I have to give. I would not be comfortable giving Jordan more than 7 carries a game.

Wide Receiver:

Brandon Marshall (10)
Eddie Royal (8)
Brandon Stokely (7)
Jabar Gaffney (7)
Brandon Lloyd (5)
Kenny McKinley (5)

Total 70%- Name me 5 WR you would take over Marshall ‘cause I can only name 3 (Fitzgerald, Boldin, Moss). I think Eddie is doing exactly what is asked and drawing a lot of attention (I think he will have a good game against NE). Don't even have to talk injuries when your two leading receivers aren't even top of the depth chart!

Offensive Line:

Ryan Clady (10)
Ryan Harris (9)
Ben Hamilton (8)
Chris Kuper (8)
Casey Weigmann (8)
Russ Hotchiens (7)
Tyler Polumbus (7)
Seth Olsen (6)

Total 78%- Greatest strength. We have already had some subbing go on here and they have done fairly well. I think that we will end up happy with this group (which is young and will only get better).

Defensive Line:

Ronald Fields (8)
Kenny Peterson (7)
Ryan McBean (7)
Vonnie Holliday (7)
LeKevin Smith (7)
Marcus Thomas (7)
Chris Baker (4)

Total 67%- Pretty good here. I think in this system any of these guys could be pegged the starter and its definitely a credit to Nolan that I say that.

Linebacker:

DJ Williams (10)
Andra Davis (8)
Elvis Dumervil (10)
Mario Haggan (7)
Wesley Woodyard (7)
Darrell Reid (7)
Spencer Larsen (6)
Robert Ayers(6)
Jarvis Moss (5)

Total 73%- Funny how 3 months ago I would have guessed around 50%. It amazes me still how we have done this, we have the ability to sub out switch and start any one we doggone want to!

Defensive Backfield:

Total 72%- I just am surprised at how deep we are on defense. It shows a lot about our coaches and players when you see numbers like this. Very Good

So based on these numbers:

Our offense scores a 58% (58% of the time we will win the war on attrition). 121
Our defense Scores a 71% (71% of the time we will win the war on attrition).178
As a Team we score a 60%. To me that is a good thing!

Again I state my opinion maybe slightly biased. These numbers may be slightly skewed here and there but they are based on how I think the team would play if someone went down with an injury. 60% of the time we would play better than our opponent (again not knowing the opponents WOA rating effects this). That to me says 6/10 times (games) we end up better. Now that's not factoring in training and what not, things like training staffs and the like factor into this in real life but we are a fairly strong paper tiger (thanks Zappa). If you figure this into the season (Coach is a math guy and this is math) playing 16 games and barring injuries of a serious nature we are looking at around a 10-6 record!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

1 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Andre Johnson

I’d add him to the list of WRs that I would consider taking over BMarsh.

calBronco1

by calbronco1 on Oct 10, 2009 7:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Any receiver that has ability to make a QB like Schaub come up in Pro Bowl QB talks is easily one of the best.

John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)

by Joe Medina on Oct 10, 2009 7:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

im convinced there are really no weakness' on this team

no doubt we could improve at almost every position but i dont see a need for a position or a weakness.

"Respect is not given it is earned"

"it aint no doggone tomorrow fellas, what you gonna bring to the doggone game, you gonna bust somebody in their mouth, are you gonna do youre doggone job, are u gonna play from your doggone fist, are you gonna play from you're heart, and give everything you doggone got, cuz im a do that."

"ITS PARTAAY TIME BAABY"

-who else

by BDAWKisaBRONC on Oct 10, 2009 7:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe PR and KR players.

Eddie Royal is not getting it done this year.

John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)

by Joe Medina on Oct 10, 2009 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Eddie Royal's stats have suffered

because opponents have concentrated on taking him away. A smart team doesn’t force the ball to the receiver who’s been taken away but burns them with the receivers who draw less attention. Since we are smart and have lots of good receivers besides Eddie that’s what we’ve been doing. With Marshall rounding into form and drawing attention I think we’ll be seeing an uptick in Eddie’s production.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Oct 11, 2009 7:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you Spock

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; We grow old because we stop playing." -- George Bernard Shaw
Breaking jaws or the NFL in Oakland who cares? Fall on your pirate’s sword - Ponderosa

by KaptainKirk on Oct 11, 2009 7:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

We could improve the Public Relations Dept.? ;-0

I agree the team is showing remarkable strength. Picking a player to replace BMarsh or any other player for that matter cannot be based solely on their stats. Are there 5 other players as good or better than BMarsh on the field? Yes. Maybe 10 others. But are they, and for that matter is BMarsh, the best fit for the team is the real question.

by Endzone on Oct 10, 2009 9:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs