Try to Not Laugh (The Any Given Sunday Effect)

by BShrout on Oct 13, 2009 8:09 PM MDT Comment 18 comments

I was feeling just a trifle smug after predicting Cincinnati over Baltimore, even though more knowledgeable minds were telling me I was wrong. Then the other results came pouring in, and I was reminded of the old adage: Pride goes before the fall.

    I had predicted seven winners: Dallas, Washington, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, the New York Giants, Philadelphia, CIncinnati, Buffalo, San Francisco, Denver, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, and the New York Jets. Who knew?

   I was reminded how heart and desire to win can often overcome cold, objective numbers. Who knew that Delhomme would key an 18 point run in a little over a quarter to lead Carolina to a come from behind win? Who knew that Cleveland and Buffalo would hold a "how to not score" fest and that Cleveland would screw it up by losing that contest and win the game? Who knew that San Francisco's defense would mysteriously disappear against the Falcons? Who knew that Hasselbeck would return from broken ribs to throw four touchdown passes? Who knew that Arizona's 27th ranked defense would manage a goal line stand to preserve a 7-point victory. Who knew that the Jets' defense would be unable to stop Miami's running game at the end?

   So, my approach to predictions only netted an 8-6 (57%) result this week. This gives me a 38-22 (63%) record for the season. It will be interesting to see over the next several weeks if the scales begin to balance out and leave me with around a 50% success rate (which is what my suspicion was going into this process) or whether this week will prove to have been an exception.

   With all of that said, here are my predictions for week 6:

Byes: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

Kansas City 3 @ Washington 21
Cleveland 8 @ Pittsburgh 20
St. Louis 3 @ Jacksonville 20
Detroit 12 @ Green Bay 29
NY Giants 39 @ New Orleans 37
Baltimore 22 @ Minnesota 38
Houston 19 @ CIncinnati 31
Carolina 15 @ Tampa Bay 3
Philadelphia 36 @ Oakland 10
Arizona 19 @ Seattle 23
Buffalo 3 @ NY Jets 25
Tennessee 0 @ New England 27
Chicago 27 @ Atlanta 30
Denver 40 @ San Diego 17

Poll

There are currently 5 undefeated teams (Denver, Indianapolis, NY Giants, New Orleans, and Minnesota). At least one of those will fall, since the Giants play the Saints this weekend. There will be at least 1 since Indianapolis has a bye. How many undefe

4

26 votes

3

41 votes

2

6 votes

1

0 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

1 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Comments

I like KC, BAL and HOU on the road

these are good spots for these guys…..KC is coming into itself a beit (still bad), but WAS is a disaster waiting (continuing) to happen, BAL will be ready to go this week (MIN is not the “greatest team” of Favre’s; what was that comment about what comes after pride?) and HOU should be able to take advantage of CIN being on a high after improbably beating BAL (if you saw that game, then you know CIN is the “stupidest” team in America still…they should have led 17-10 @ half.

by BideshiBronco on Oct 13, 2009 8:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey BShrout,

What score did you pick for the Denver v. New England game?

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Oct 13, 2009 9:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Well . . .

The NE portion was close (the prediction was 18, they score 17)

The Denver portion wasn’t close (prediction was 32, reality was 20)

But the precise score has never been the point of this exercise, but rather whether or not the formula can be used to accurately predict the winner of each game.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Oct 13, 2009 10:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't thinking that.

I just love your 40 to 17 prediction and was kind of wondering if you’re an optimist like I tend to be. I think that one of these days the Broncos offense is going to explode and I hope your prediction is right on the money. LOL!

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Oct 13, 2009 10:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

BShrout, we are both as good at this 'pick thing' as we think we are.lol

tomorrrow I will do my picks, probably mostly wrong.

tonight, however, I will give my upset in stone.

Houston will ‘make a fool’ of Cincy this week.
‘gut-feeling’

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Oct 13, 2009 9:46 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL, I agree with your sentiment

I’m mostly wrong most of the time. That’s why, I’m running this based solely on current stats.

I came into this assuming that it would shake out to being accurate about 50% of the time — as in flip a coin accuracy.

I’ve been surprised to be running above that. We’ll see how it goes as the season continues.

by BShrout on Oct 13, 2009 10:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was 12-4 last week.

This week there could be 3 undefeateds left. Baltimore losing 3 weeks in a row. That’s gutsy even if they do have problems. Don’t get me wrong though, I hope the Steelers and Ravens lose just to keep it close down the road with Cincy. Since they have won their division games.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 13, 2009 10:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

You've pinpointed one of the greatest weaknesses of this method

It totally ignores such things as injuries and the will to win needed games. It’s based completely on points scored/allowed and win/loss in various settings. Thus I’ve been very surprised to see it running about 60% overall.

by BShrout on Oct 13, 2009 10:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I voted 4.

Denver, Indy, NY Giants, and Minnesota all will be undefeated after this week.

by coffee on Oct 14, 2009 8:07 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I would hope that Indy is

since they have a bye :D

just kidding.

I’d like to see 4 undefeateds after this weekend. Though I’d rather see New Orleans than the Giants, but I’m not sure I believe that will happen.

by BShrout on Oct 14, 2009 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

the raiders could find a way to lose during a bye week

Bringing Bronco love from 1,112 miles away

by kentuckybronco on Oct 14, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

LMAO

too true

by BShrout on Oct 14, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks BShrout

It’s always great to see your predictions. I think KC wins in Wash, the Redskins are a mess and the Chiefs look like they are starting to come together KC 24 Was 17. I also think Balt shuts Minn down and this one ends up close with Balt winning 27-24.
Everything thing else I pretty much agree with. Outside the Broncos game the game to see would NYG against the Saints. That could be one wild show.

by bchiper on Oct 14, 2009 8:47 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

I think that you’re right and that Kansas City is close.

And I’d really like to see Balt over Minn, because if we have to play them after they’ve gone on a 3 game skid and had their bye week, it could get really ugly.

by BShrout on Oct 14, 2009 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hadn't thought about

that aspect of the Balt – Minn game. I just think the overall receiving corp on Minn is not as good as Cinci’s is, which could be the difference. It should be a great game though.

by bchiper on Oct 14, 2009 1:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs