Now, who's #1?
Despite blue and orange kool-aid being the drink of the nation this week, Denver is still considered by most the worst of the unbeaten. Almost every power ranking has Denver fifth or sixth and I wanted to see if I could find out why? This led me to compare the win/loss records of the teams each unbeaten has well, beaten...... Here it is.
The Colts 5-0 The Vikings 5-0 The Saints 4-0 The Giants 5-0 The Broncos 5-0
Jaguars 2-3 Browns 1-4 Lions 1-4 Redskins 2-3 Bengals 4-1
Dolphins 2-3 Lions 1-4 Eagles 3-1 Cowboys 3-2 Browns 1-4
Cardinals 2-2 49ers 3-2 Bills 1-4 Bucs 0-5 Raiders 1-4
Seahawks2-3 Packers 2-2 Jets 3-2 Chiefs 0-5 Cowboys 3-2
Titans 0-5 Rams 0-5 Raiders 1-4 Patriots 3-2
Total 8-16 Total 7-17 Total 8-11 Total 6-19 Total 12-13
The Giants opponents have the worst winning percentage at 24% and the Giants have not beat a real contender. Minnesota's opponents are second worst with a 29% winning percentage and they have not beat a contender either, (the 49ers were a contender until the got dismantled by the Falcons). The third lowest winning percentage are the Colts opponents at 33% and not one of their opponents even has a winning record. New Orleans opponents look better and have a 42% winning percentage which include the Eagles and Jets who could end up in the playoffs. Last, but definitely not least, our Broncos have beaten five teams with a combined winning percentage of 48% to include division leading Bengals and Patriots.
The Broncos have beaten THREE teams with winning records, again compared to the Saints TWO, the Giants and Vikings ONE and the Colts ZIP!
This just reiterates the bias and laziness that has infected the media and why I come to MHR to learn about football and enjoy discussion of a GREAT TEAM in a GREAT SPORT.
Hope you enjoyed the read, I try to only post when I feel like I'm adding something to the discussion and not just because I have an opinion and DANG IT it needs to be heard...., so I hope this post falls in line with that.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
29 recs |
60 comments
Comments
This is why we're No. 1 in the Sagarin ratings
because they’re based on results, not opinions.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm
Good comment. I also only comment when I feel I have something of value to add. If I just agree, or laugh at a comment, I “rec” it. As I did yours!
"Remember, it's only a game."
by robswenson on Oct 15, 2009 3:57 PM MDT reply actions 9 recs
Wow!
I’ve never heard of the Sagarin ratings and will definitely go there as the season progresses. Thanks.
by chopperpilot on Oct 15, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Great link robswenson. Thanks!
"A man can fail, but he is not a failure until he blames someone else." J. Paul Getty
by SteveAssassin on Oct 15, 2009 5:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen or heard of the Sagarin Ratings
Wiki says it’s been used in USA Today since ‘85. Very nice find. I’ll Rec that
by elvisalex on Oct 15, 2009 7:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the link... I too have learned something new.
"So tell me what happened."
"Well, the last thing I remember is seeing this flash of Blue and Orange and the #22... then everything just went black..."
by HillisRanUover on Oct 15, 2009 9:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
12-8 vs the rest of the league
Especially impressive is that the Broncos opponents are 12-8 vs the rest of the league and that includes the Browns and the Raiders 6 losses.The Cowboys and the Patriots have only lost one other game outside of Denver and the Bengals are undefeated when not playing the Orange and Blue
by OrangeCrush4082 on Oct 15, 2009 4:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Good job chopperpilot
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
by KaptainKirk on Oct 15, 2009 4:44 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the chart.
I keep hearing this mentioned, and it’s great to have the information layed out in an easy to read format. rec’d
"My job description is to win football games. I'm a hard worker. I'm not flashy by any means, but my job is to play football and win and I plan to do that." Kyle Orton
by odarol on Oct 15, 2009 4:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look deeper...
…you will find that the Giants’ opponents, for example, are even worse than they look. Of the Giants’ opponents 6 wins, four of them were inevitable b/c the Giants opponents played each other (Dallas and Oakland both beat KC (0-5), Washington and Dallas both beat Tampa (0-5)). So the Giants opponents have two victories combined when not playing each other. 1 of those wins came when Washington beat St. Louis (0-5) and the other came when Dallas beat Carolina (1-3). Carolina’s sole win? The Skins.
Tampa Bay and KC account for two of the Giants wins, and 4 of the 6 wins by Giants’ opponents! The other two wins by Giants’ opponents are against St. Louis and Carolina, who have 1 combined win between them. The Giants have not beaten a single team with a quality win. Yet they have been the consensus #1 team in all the power rankings.
Hmmm, I wonder if that would still be the case if the Giants played in the midwest and the Broncos played on the East Coast…
by GrizBronc on Oct 15, 2009 4:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't think it could get uglier(for them)
or better(for us). Good job!
by chopperpilot on Oct 15, 2009 5:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Thanks for the extra insight, Griz.
"Aggression, discipline, accountability, effort" Brian Dawkins 9/29/2009
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing." Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Oct 16, 2009 3:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll raise you one more!
Take a look at the official NFL tie break process. Right now, Denver is #1 in the entire NFL.
You can look this up at NFL.com, go to “standings”, then click “by League”.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 15, 2009 5:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I never thought aftter a 5-0 start 13-3 would look so unlikely!
14-2 or better looks much more likely…. :-)
by chopperpilot on Oct 15, 2009 5:40 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why is this so important to so many of us?
Who cares what we are ranked? This isn’t college football. There is no BCS. There is no controversy, no voting. There is a fair playoff system. That system is determined by win loss record, not respect by other teams or the ridiculous MSM.
I think we need to get over it and be happy we are 5-0 and looking to go 6-0. I will be at this game and have been at the past 7 or 8 (less 1 or 2) and most of them have sucked! Obviously. So for me, I’m just excited our team is so strong and I could care less what those outside of Bronco Nation think.
But as McDaniel’s said, 5 games doesn’t get you in to the playoffs, etc. We have a long way to go so why are we worried what the MSM thinks after 5 weeks of football?
by OC Bronco Fan on Oct 15, 2009 5:39 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Not worried, just irritated that
I can come up with a logical way to sort the top five in about 10 minutes, but the MSM who gets paid to “inform” us are SO wrong and lazy!
by chopperpilot on Oct 15, 2009 5:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Said...
I couldn’t care less about the stupid rankings – statistical or opinionated.
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.
by desibroncofan on Oct 15, 2009 5:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It matters.
All you have to do is look at how the Broncos have been treated by Vegas based solely on what the media said about the team.
by JeffG on Oct 15, 2009 8:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vegas treats all NFL teams the same.
The goal of the Vegas odds makers, & all bookies, is to split the money being bet on a particular game between the two teams 50/50. They don’t care who wins, & they don’t even care about football. They just crunch the numbers & adjust the spread to balance the money being bet so they can bank their cool 10% on all of the wagers being placed. Vegas & their perceived “treatment” of the Broncos is merely a reflection of the misinformed bettors listening to the MSM sound bites & believing them.
"He can take his'n n beat your'n, or he can take your'n n beat his'n." Florida A&M Coach Jake Gaither on Alabama Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant.
by turnerstoe on Oct 15, 2009 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
Nice explanation
It’s absolutely astonishing how many people don’t understand that ‘Vegas Odds’ really have nothing to do with game statistics or expert opinions (well, other than the fact that some expert somewhere has to decide where to begin the odds at before the betting trend sort of self-adjusts those odds.
by elvisalex on Oct 15, 2009 9:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the players, it is important to focus on each game.
But for the fans, we want to feel good about our team and how they’ve performed.
Coaches and players need to stay focused game by game. But since you and I aren’t playing the game, we don’t need that focus week to week. Our job is to feel good about where our team is at. Just my opinion.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 15, 2009 8:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Completely Agree HT!
plus, we as fans take pride in our team, and when it is clearly being dis-respected… or not given the respect that we believe they have earned, we take it kind of personal… and we should. That’s what fans do. They cheer on their teams on game days, and they defend their teams all the other days of the week!
"So tell me what happened."
"Well, the last thing I remember is seeing this flash of Blue and Orange and the #22... then everything just went black..."
by HillisRanUover on Oct 15, 2009 9:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!
16-3 baby!!
by RiG on Oct 15, 2009 5:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post Chopper Pilot......Rec'd for its common sense..
Heres the thing with common sense….its an oxymoron…….it aint that common!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 15, 2009 5:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Definitely not common at all.
Thanks boydy
by chopperpilot on Oct 15, 2009 6:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good info, Chopper
Thanks and rec’d
" Life is what happens while you're making other plans "
by hairybear on Oct 15, 2009 5:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Chopper
Now that’s what I call value added, baby!
Great stuff. Rec’d, even though I’m late to the party!!!
Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
by TJ Johnson on Oct 15, 2009 6:30 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Do we really think that we should be #1 in the power rankings?
Granted, I think this team is awesome and that we have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs, but teams like the Giants and Colts have been contenders for years. Just like we weren’t apologizing for our wins against the Browns and Raiders, they shouldn’t for their wins against weaker teams. I could make a case for us to be #3, but I think we’ll probably need to beat the Colts and Giants in order to pull ahead of them…..but first we need to take care of business on Monday night.
Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage
by TD4HOF on Oct 15, 2009 6:39 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I personaly think we are in the top four.
Right now, the top tier (to me) in no particular order is NO, NYGs, INDY, and DEN. I think PHI and BAL are very close to that group.
I wouldn’t call us the #1 team, but I think we’re close.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 15, 2009 8:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eye Opening
As with most rating systems, it’s where you start. The other 4 teams were rated ahead of the Broncos at the beginning of the season, and hence did not have to listen to “They haven’t played anybody” since they had already been anointed as great teams. You only get that line if no one thinks you’re good to begin with. It’s a good CYA line for the ‘experts’.
by xandervan on Oct 15, 2009 6:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks chopper !!
For some reason, last spring, when I did a pre ‘Pre-Season’ 2009 prediction-post, I had us losing our first game this year to the ‘dolts’ …I hope I am wrong. This next game against the Chargers is really important. The great talent on their team, despite being ‘Norved’ the last few years, could rise up on any given moment…win…and make any team look bad. Let’s hope McDaniels’ exacting enthusiasm for winning helps our team concentrate on just how important this game is. Starting 6 and 0 is very special!!!
Go Broncos!!!
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
by Mike Clark on Oct 15, 2009 7:20 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO
these power rankings are such BS. I dont care where Denver is ranked. The MSM has belittled the Broncos all off season and so far into this regular season. So let them rank the Broncos as the #5 unbeaten. I am fine with that. The bottom line is Denver is 5-0 and leading the West. The ultimate vindication will come at seasons end
somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong
by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 15, 2009 7:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
SB winner is #1 power ranking – the loser is #2, the conference losers are #3 and #4 ect. But in the mean time it is fun to see how the stats can be used to produce different results – we have 6 or 7 days between games and have to keep our minds occupied some how
by Flunkie on Oct 16, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different model produces different result
Brian Burke at Advance NFL Stats explains best
"Another reason for the disparity is that my system is geared toward predicting the future rather than explaining the past. Statistical models are usually one of two general types — explanatory or predictive. An explanatory model would consider everything under the sun: fumble recovery rates, kickoff returns for touchdowns, punts that die on the 1-yard line, and many other events that are not easily repeated. The more factors you add to a model, the greater its explanatory power.
Predictive models are based on factors that tend to be consistent and repeatable. In football, the most consistent predictors of success are running and passing efficiency, on both offense and defense. Turnover rates are very important, but are not consistent, meaning high or low turnover rates don’t necessarily indicate future turnover rates. My system discounts turnover rates in proportion to how consistent they tend to be throughout a season. "
His system is pretty good and Denver is currently ranked #4. FYI, his system picked Denver over NE and now it predicts Denver would win over SD.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/15/nfl-win-probabilities-for-week-6/
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/10/team-efficiency-rankings-week-6.html
Words can fool men but Nature doesn't give a damn!
by MadDogExtra on Oct 15, 2009 8:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If he went like the week before
12-1-1 every week then that would worry me :)
Since his system is new this year so I will wait till the end of the season for the average to catch up to see whether his system is better. But the fundamentals of his model is very sound. (to me)
Words can fool men but Nature doesn't give a damn!
by MadDogExtra on Oct 15, 2009 8:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm reading the chart correctly...
this model had Denver ranked at #3 after week-FOUR. That’s impressive by itself.
by elvisalex on Oct 15, 2009 9:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to admit that I'm a bit chapped
That the Broncos get SD in SD with SD coming off a bye week. I mean, aren’t the Broncos and Chargers consistently battling for the AFC West title? Seems odd that the schedule makers would give SD so heavy an (ostensible) advantage.
by JeffG on Oct 15, 2009 8:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but at least our bye comes after a Monday night game and eliminates a short week for us. Plus the chargers get to spend alot of time thinking that they know what they will see on Monday, when McDaniels will have a new game plan worked up just for them.
"My job description is to win football games. I'm a hard worker. I'm not flashy by any means, but my job is to play football and win and I plan to do that." Kyle Orton
by odarol on Oct 15, 2009 9:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
And some of the fun last Sunday
(wild horses, etc.) was probably put out there by McDaniels just so the Chargers would have to tear up their draft game plan and start over.
The only real advantage was an extra week to heal.
Aaaand just look at the injury report to see how that worked out for them, and us.
Seriously, though, how can we come off what is possibly the toughest test of the year with fewer people on the injury report than we had going in? WTF, is playing the Patriots a tonic for us now?
"Aggression, discipline, accountability, effort" Brian Dawkins 9/29/2009
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing." Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Oct 16, 2009 3:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 extra day for McDaniels is like 2 extra weeks for norv...
we’ve still got the advantage
"So tell me what happened."
"Well, the last thing I remember is seeing this flash of Blue and Orange and the #22... then everything just went black..."
by HillisRanUover on Oct 15, 2009 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
whats even worse
the broncos get SD, baltimore, and Pittsburgh after all 3 are coming in off byes. granted Denver will play the ravens after a bye but it seems a bit wrong for Denver in a 4 week span t play 3 teams coming off byes
somethings wrong, Trying to conquer these fears i thought were gone. And it's been so long, I'm dying to live in a world i don't belong
by broncfanstuckinsd on Oct 16, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yo Bros Giants fan here.
We have a little saying in New York…fogettabout the power rankings!
I just wanted to stop by and say your defense is money bros…so money.
And I’m really looking forward to an exciting Thanksgiving Day football game. I’ll be pullin for yous guys, Orton reminds of of Eli he’s money and gets no respect.
"With the game on the line. I want the ball in my hands."
-E
by tito (eight and oh) on Oct 15, 2009 8:20 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
For what it is worth...
Either you guys or NO represents the NFC in the SB (in my opinion). You have a quality team out there, and I wish you guys the best (except when you guys play us later on).
Take it easy.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Oct 15, 2009 8:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey tito, thanks for stopping in
I’m totally pulling for the G Men to do a thing or two to the rest of the AFC West this year! Eli’s looking mighty good out there right now and your teams depth is crazy good.
John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)
by Joe Medina on Oct 15, 2009 8:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Tito
Appreciate you stopping by. I also respect the Giants. Great team. But why are you pullin for us on Thanksgiving? Should be one of the best games of the year and of course I hope the Broncos win.
by Endzone on Oct 15, 2009 10:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha definitely not pullin for you guys on Thanksgiving.
But I am pulling for you guys to remain undefeated until that game. I haven’t seen a game on Thanksgiving that was mildly entertaining in far too long…this one should be a doozy.
"With the game on the line. I want the ball in my hands."
-E
by tito (eight and oh) on Oct 16, 2009 6:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that man!
Can you imagine if we both head into that Thanksgiving game undefeated?
"Take what you can. Give nothing back!"
by Colorado_Kitten on Oct 16, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's just say if that happens...
Mom’s famous mashed potatoes won’t be the most exciting conversation piece at the table.
"With the game on the line. I want the ball in my hands."
-E
by tito (eight and oh) on Oct 16, 2009 10:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanksgiving
I’m thankful that the game will be played here at Mile High!
by Endzone on Oct 16, 2009 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants love playing on the road.
So it should be a close one.
I’m really lovin’ your team this year gents. I saw Josh McDaniels Wired on NFL Network and I really got a kick outta that. You remind a lot of our team…efficient passing game, underrated QB, good ground game, great defense. I’d love nothing more than a a rematch of the ’86 Bowl (with similar results of course).
"With the game on the line. I want the ball in my hands."
-E
by tito (eight and oh) on Oct 16, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power Rankings feh
32% last year’s W-L record
37% this year W-L record
20% this year’s overall (yards…feh) “ranking”
and 11% prejudice
OC Broncos Fan did a great job above:
Who cares what we are ranked? This isn’t college football. There is no BCS. There is no controversy, no voting. There is a fair playoff system. That system is determined by win loss record, not respect by other teams or the ridiculous MSM.
Thanks very much for the post; keeps our juices flowing, but mark my words: we are going to need something else to motivate our sense of moral indignation, because the “broncos suck” bandwagon has lost 3 wheels and all of the horses, and the only passengers still riding it are dead or asleep.
"Aggression, discipline, accountability, effort" Brian Dawkins 9/29/2009
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing." Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Oct 16, 2009 3:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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